Ressources naturelles, énergie, environnement

Cette page regroupe l'ensemble des publications de Futuribles sur cette thématique (Vigie, revue, bibliographie, études, etc.)

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Ressources naturelles, énergie, environnement

Rapport fait au nom de la MIES

Ce rapport débute par un cri d?alarme du président de la MIES, Jean-Yves Le Déaut : le changement climatique constitue la plus grande menace du XXIe siècle. Les activités humaines sont largement en cause. Les émissions excessives de gaz à effet de serre ne s?arrêtent pas aux frontières. Le réchauffement prévisible au cours du XXIe siècle (qui pourrait être de 5° C, ce qui est considérable) est un phénomène mondial. Une réponse, pour être efficace, doit donc être mondiale ...

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Revue

Ressources naturelles, énergie, environnement

Accepting the New Century

This article by Pierre Radanne summarizes in a few pages the key challenges raised by the third energy crisis that has been affecting the world for the past year or so. He first offers a brief description of the cyclical nature of energy and then goes on to describe how this recent crisis developed, stressing the way that concerns about climate change have put the present oil shock on a very different plane to previous ones. The challenge now is at a much broader level, relating to how people live: Western lifestyles cannot be adopted by the whole planet; consequently it is imperative that the industrialized countries seek new patterns of behaviour that reduce energy consumption. Pierre Radanne argues that public authorities, especially in Europe, must rank their priorities and establish long-term strategies, involving a certain "re-regulation" of the energy sector. He concludes that it is essential to be equipped to make a success of the 21st century by using the energy sector as a vector for tackling the problems of climate change and an approach to creating a new form of civilization for the whole planet.

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Ressources naturelles, énergie, environnement - Territoires, réseaux

Biofuels for Transportation : Global Potential and Implications for Sustainable Agriculture and Energy in the 21st Century

Les biocarburants comme l’éthanol et le biodiesel peuvent réduire significativement notre dépendance au pétrole, selon ce rapport du Worldwatch Institute pour le ministère allemand de l’Agriculture, de l’Alimentation et de la Protection du consommateur. En 2005, la production de biocarburants a dépassé 670 000 barils par jour, l’équivalent de 1 % du marché total des carburants de transport. Bien que le pétrole représente encore 96 % du carburant de transport, la production de biocarburants a doublé depuis 2001 ...

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Revue

Ressources naturelles, énergie, environnement

The End of Cheap Oil. Why the Data about the Reserves Are so Unreliable and Controversial

The world economy cannot function without oil, notably because the transport sector relies so heavily upon it. Yet the forecasts of supply and demand for hydrocarbons differ widely depending on the expert source consulted.
Even though they are not much discussed in the institutional publications, major controversies surround the estimates of the total reserves that could be extracted in future. The most optimistic forecasts are based on the fact that the amount of proven reserves has never stopped growing over the last 50 years, thanks above all to technological progress and the exploitation of new, deep-sea fields; the optimists assume that past trends will continue and they reckon that there is no reason to fear shortages for another 40, if not 80, years.
By contrast, the most pessimistic experts argue that oil is a finite resource and the main oil-producing regions were discovered long ago. Since consumption rates now exceed discovery rates and technical progress has its limits, they calculate on the basis of discovery rates in the past that conventional and unconventional oil production might reach a maximum of 90 million barrels per day by 2015-2030, but after that it will decline inexorably.
Jean Laherrère, an expert on oil reserves, sums up the present situation and the forecasts of likely future changes in world oil reserves. His approach is rather pessimistic, stressing that the published figures on reserves tend to be highly political and must be viewed with caution, above all because there are no agreed definitions of what is being evaluated. He presents the various estimates of final hydrocarbon reserves (i.e. total production plus known reserves plus estimates of undiscovered reserves), and the range of factors affecting the forecasts. His conclusion does not beat about the bush: we must quickly check oil consumption (if necessary by raising prices significantly) if we are to satisfy our future energy needs.

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Ressources naturelles, énergie, environnement - Société, modes de vie

Demain, serons-nous tous des végétariens ? 2020, que mangerons-nous ? Enjeux pour les filières agricoles et agroalimentaires normandes

L'objectif de cette étude est d'analyser les évolutions des comportements alimentaires des Européens afin d'en évaluer l'impact sur les débouchés de l'agriculture normande à l'horizon 2020. Pour ce faire, sept variables ont été identifiées, dont deux majeures : la croissance globale du revenu (produit intérieur brut) et la répartition de celui-ci dans la population. En effet, l'afflux de revenus supplémentaires n'a pas le même effet sur les dépenses alimentaires, selon qu'il bénéficie ...

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Ressources naturelles, énergie, environnement - Société, modes de vie - Territoires, réseaux

Holiday 2030

En 2005, le nombre de touristes internationaux a encore augmenté de 5,5 %, atteignant 808 millions. L'industrie touristique représente 3,6 % du produit intérieur brut mondial et emploie 230 millions de personnes, soit près de 9 % de l'emploi total mondial. Elle est actuellement l'industrie dont la croissance est la plus rapide, mais cette tendance va-t-elle se poursuivre ? Rien n'est moins sûr car, en 2030, le réchauffement climatique, qui serait compris entre 1 °C et 2 °C ...

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Revue

Ressources naturelles, énergie, environnement

Renewable Energy Sources as a Key Factor in Tackling Consumption

As is suggested by one of the conclusions of the French Interministerial Mission on the Greenhouse Effect in 2004, the emissions of greenhouse gases cannot be reduced in France without an enormous effort to address energy consumption (energy saving) alongside initiatives to develop renewable forms of energy.
The demand side of the equation (addressing consumption) is discussed in this issue by Véronique Lamblin. On the supply side, in the context of possible shortages in the longer term (probably within a matter of decades) of fossil fuel stocks (mainly hydrocarbons), renewable energy sources are an important option to explore, alongside greater use of nuclear power. Jean-Louis Bal and Bernard Chabot, both specialists in renewables, describe the main features of solar, wave, wind, biomass and geothermal power, their place in the total energy picture, and more specifically in Europe and in France, as well as their prospects for growth in the medium term.
They discuss the contributions of renewables to the production of electricity and heat and as fuel. They then argue that renewables could make up a non-negligible part of energy supplies via quite simple applications in housing and transport, for example. But this, too, would require a certain willingness to intervene on the part of governments. Germany and Japan, for instance, have already invested successfully in this approach, whereas France is lagging behind.

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Ressources naturelles, énergie, environnement

World Agroforestry into the Future

L'agroforesterie, un système agricole associant les arbres (ou autres plantes ligneuses vivaces) et cultures sur une même parcelle agricole, est porteuse de nombreux espoirs pour les pays en développement. Depuis une trentaine d'années, la recherche agricole met à l'honneur cette technique pourtant traditionnelle chez les agriculteurs des pays tropicaux et subtropicaux. Aujourd'hui, environ 1,2 milliard de personnes subsisteraient grâce aux pratiques agroforestières. Le rapport World Agroforestry into the Future a été publié par le World ...

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Entreprises, travail - Recherche, sciences, techniques - Ressources naturelles, énergie, environnement

Recherches et technologies du futur : quelles orientations pour la production et la consommation d’énergie ?

Le monde s'oriente-t-il vers un avenir énergétique durable ? La poursuite des tendances actuelles laisse penser que non. Le Conseil économique et social, se plaçant à l'horizon 2050, dresse le panorama du mix énergétique raisonné et équilibré qui devrait prévaloir à cette date. Aucune source d'énergie ne peut être exclue a priori, selon cet organisme. Les recherches doivent être activement poursuivies dans tous les domaines. Le XXIe siècle verra se développer une production décentralisée, notamment dans certains espaces ...

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Revue

Ressources naturelles, énergie, environnement

Effet de serre : quelques scénarios

Patrick Criqui, an expert in the prospects for energy and the environment, examines some of the recently proposed scenarios for energy needs and production and for global emissions of greenhouse gases. He thus points out that "between the pressure of demand, the upstream limits on resources and the downstream limits on emissions, devising long-term energy scenarios is an exercise in squaring the circle".
He summarizes here a range of scenarios including those of the IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change), those carried out as part of the study of Greenhouse Gas Reduction Pathways, and the Factor 4 scenarios (which aim to cut carbon emissions to a quarter of existing levels, notably in France). Among these scenarios, some are considered "policy free" (i.e. they do not set targets to aim for); others set targets expressed in precise figures for stabilizing or reducing greenhouse gas emissions. Patrick Criqui describes them in detail, showing what can be learned from each one, the controversies they stir up and their possible implications for public action, in particular. Lastly he discusses the policies that might be adopted in order to promote "virtuous" scenario outcomes (stabilizing emissions), with regard to technological innovations, economic incentives and in structural terms.

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Ressources naturelles, énergie, environnement

The World’s Water 2006-2007. The Biennial Report on Freshwater Resources

Le Pacific Institute for Studies in Development, Environment and Security publie tous les deux ans un rapport qui fait autorité sur les ressources en eau mondiales. Dans cette dernière édition, outre les données statistiques classiques (ressources et consommation d'eau par pays, terres irriguées, traitement de l'eau..), plusieurs sujets font l'objet d'une étude approfondie. Parmi ceux-ci, la menace terroriste (les réseaux de distribution d'eau sont vulnérables et les menaces doivent être anticipées), la désalinisation (qui est ...

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Revue

Ressources naturelles, énergie, environnement

Nuclear Energy: Generation IV. The Issues Raised by the New Generations of Nuclear Power Plants

World energy supplies face three constraints in the long term: rapidly growing demand from developing countries, gradual exhaustion of fossil fuel stocks and limits on greenhouse gas emissions in line with the Kyoto accords signed in 1997. If one adds to that the desire of more and more governments to ensure a minimum level of secure supplies, the equation becomes even harder to solve.
Basing their discussion on a range of recent scenarios for energy prospects, Frank Carré and Jean-Claude Petit stress the growing need - in addition to checking energy consumption - to have recourse to non-carbon energy sources in order to safeguard the possibilities of sustainable development. They argue that, of all the options, nuclear energy is the best because it does not create greenhouse gases, it guarantees genuine independence of supply and stable prices.
As this article shows, more and more industrialized countries (e.g. the United States, France and Japan) have understood this and are investing in energy policies based on nuclear power both domestically and internationally. Turning to technical matters, the authors describe the successive generations of nuclear power plants built since the 1950s; they also outline the generations of the future, in particular the fourth generation, currently being studied at international level. Lastly, they describe what factors (economics, safety, waste management, etc.) influenced the designs ultimately chosen for the fourth generation of plants, which are not expected to be in operation before 2040.
According to the authors, the nuclear option is the most viable in the long run, from every point of view. However, since short-term issues matter most to both investors in and producers of electricity, the public authorities will have to actively promote it over the next half-century or so.

Revue

Entreprises, travail - Recherche, sciences, techniques - Ressources naturelles, énergie, environnement

Where Should We Look for Ways of Coping with the Greenhouse Effect?

As is clear from reading most of the articles in this special issue, all the scenarios for stabilizing or reducing emissions of greenhouse gases to "acceptable" limits require a real effort to tackle the growth of energy consumption. As Véronique Lamblin emphasizes here, all possible means of increasing energy supplies (especially by improving yields or lowering the costs of production technologies) are to be welcomed; nevertheless, this approach alone will probably not be sufficient, given the current concerns about climate change.
Consequently, after highlighting the crucial importance of dealing with the energy problem, she presents here some possible ways of reducing energy consumption in the industrialized countries: production technologies involving a lower carbon content, cutting back demand for electricity and energy for transport, intelligent devices for detecting and reducing waste, management of energy use in housing, industry and vehicles, substitution between products and services, etc. Unfortunately, despite many possibilities that already exist or are in prospect, tackling energy consumption remains a taboo subject, especially because it is too often wrongly understood as holding back economic growth, and it does not attract the amount of effort (in terms of technological or socio-organizational research, for example) needed to match the stakes involved.
This is one of the major failures of both governments and business, in France, in Europe, and throughout the world. It is obvious that if active measures are not taken soon to improve matters, stabilizing the greenhouse gas emissions and thus limiting global warming will remain merely pious hopes.

Chapitre Ressources...

Ce chapitre est extrait du Rapport Vigie 2016 de Futuribles International, qui propose un panorama structuré des connaissances et des incertitudes des experts que l'association a mobilisés pour explorer les évolutions des 15 à 35 prochaines années sur 11 thématiques.