Ressources naturelles, énergie, environnement

Cette page regroupe l'ensemble des publications de Futuribles sur cette thématique (Vigie, revue, bibliographie, études, etc.)

Bibliography

Ressources naturelles, énergie, environnement

GEO Year Book 2003

Le GEO (Global Environment Outlook) Year Book 2003 est le premier rapport d'une nouvelle série annuelle publiée par le PNUE. Il présente les questions environnementales clés et attire l'attention sur les progrès majeurs de l'année aux niveaux mondial et régional. Il comporte une rubrique spéciale sur l'eau (Feature Focus on Water) et sur le rôle clé qu'elle joue dans la réalisation des objectifs définis au niveau international, entre autres ceux de la Déclaration du millénaire ...

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CR table ronde

Recherche, sciences, techniques - Ressources naturelles, énergie, environnement

Prospective de la recherche dans le champ de l’alimentation, de l’agriculture et de l’environnement

Venu présenter son rapport "INRA 2020 alimentation, agriculture, environnement : une prospective pour la recherche", Bertrand Hervieu a commencé son exposé en soulignant les vertus pédagogiques certaines d’un tel exercice de prospective. Destiné à préparer les mutations à venir, le rapport permettra, selon lui, de mettre en place des dispositifs évolutifs pour ne pas subir les changements scientifiques, culturels et économiques mais pour les apprivoiser.

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Ressources naturelles, énergie, environnement

La menace climatique

Entre 1,4° C et 5,8° C à l'horizon 2100, c'est la fourchette des simulations du réchauffement climatique dans le monde réalisées par les experts du GIEC (Groupe intergouvernemental d'experts sur l'évolution du climat). Aucun modèle ne prévoit une baisse ou simplement la stabilisation des températures futures, l'écart entre les estimations correspond à différentes hypothèses sur l'évolution de la population, celle des techniques et les choix énergétiques possibles. Ce dossier spécial de Science ...

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Revue

Entreprises, travail - Recherche, sciences, techniques - Ressources naturelles, énergie, environnement

La marchandisation du vivant

The major advances in research into the basis of life, especially over the last two decades, threatens to lead - as discoveries and/or inventions are made and, as a result, patents are taken out - to a process of private acquisition and hence commercialisation of the world's gene stock.
Pierre-Benoit Joly and Bertrand Hervieu first outline the dangers inherent in these developments and then go on to discuss the various "innovation regimes", in particular how we have shifted from agricultural research shaped mainly by public bodies and the farming community to genome -soon to be post-genome- research dominated by multinational firms, that incite moves to strengthen intellectual property considerations.
Rather than making the argument one of public versus private control, the authors favour seeking a third way. They begin by analysing the reasons behind patent laws (whose purpose is to encourage research while fostering the spread of innovations), while at the same time they emphasize the problems in practice, especially where life-forms are involved, and the benefits and drawbacks that may arise when patent laws are applied too rigidly.
They then show that other ways of protecting inventions exist which make it possible to share financial resources and genetic material (as has happened in the case of cattle). With these precedents in mind - for which they also sketch the advantages and disadvantages- they make a plea for a European model based on sharing resources, with references to successful initiatives of this kind in both the United States and Europe.

Revue

Ressources naturelles, énergie, environnement

L’essor de l’écologie industrielle

Having first defined and recalled the (recent) origins of this concept, Cyril Adoue and Arnaud Ansart demonstrate the value of industrial ecology, backed up with examples. Taking as their starting point some concrete examples of European, American and Asian eco-industrial arrangements, the authors show how a symbiotic relationship can be created among firms in the same region, with the waste from one industry being used as productive inputs for others. In order to achieve such synergies, they argue, the key factor is an analysis of "industrial metabolism" based on the principle of keeping materials within the system concerned. This is a great help in decision-making to promote truly sustainability.
The authors stress that industrial ecology can, however, be much more than just a matter of basic -if still all too rare- industrial symbiosis, by extending to other aspects, such as minimizing dispersed emissions, the "dematerialization" of some economic activities, the use of non-carbon energy sources, improved eco-efficiency, etc.
Finally, although they are well aware of what a tiny part industrial ecology plays in modern economic systems, Cyril Adoue and Arnaud Ansart emphasize the crucial role that it might well acquire in the future, if the powers-that-be were to decide to promote the necessary legislative and economic incentives -in other words, if they were to move on from grand statements of intent to real action in favour of sustainability.

Revue

Institutions - Ressources naturelles, énergie, environnement

Débat démocratique et développement durable

"Unlike other committees, we are not a group of experts whose role is to take part in government policy. Instead, we are a kind of independent and attentive laboratory of ideas applied to sustainable development and democracy. Because they consider that this independence, freedom of thought and action are being undermined, most of the active members of the CFDD feel that they have no choice but to resign." With these words, in a letter to the French Prime Minister, Jean-Pierre Raffarin, in May 2003 Jacques Testart explained why he was resigning as chairman of the CFDD, along with most of its active members.
In what way were this independence, freedom of thought and action being undermined? The answer is given in this damning document, which demonstrates how far the debates necessary for any meaningful policy of sustainable development are systematically made to vanish into thin air. Reading this account makes one realize that it is more difficult than ever in France to promote independent forums for democratic discussion of the key questions relating to the future, and yet "sustainable development makes no sense without the invention of new forms of democracy".

Revue

Entreprises, travail - Ressources naturelles, énergie, environnement

Les entreprises et l’environnement

Firms are increasingly obliged to be accountable for the impact of their activities on the environment. Anticipating this need, many firms have begun to include this requirement in their annual reports, sometimes even producing a report specifically concerned with sustainable development. How worthwhile are these early initiatives?
Thierry Lavoux and Patrice Grégoire have examined a study of the 2001 annual reports of 150 French firms conducted by the French Institute for the Environment (IFEN). They issue a warning: environmental reports have been produced by few firms, especially those whose activities involve considerable risks to the environment, and they should be treated with caution. These reports tend to provide few facts, especially long-term data, but plenty of general ideas.
Moreover, their findings are corroborated by several international surveys whose results they summarize. Sustainable development is clearly a matter of increasing concern so that firms have to give an account of what they are doing in this regard. Yet much progress remains to be made before this concern becomes fully integrated in management thinking and firms produce plausible reports of their efforts to act responsibly towards the environment.

Revue

Entreprises, travail - Ressources naturelles, énergie, environnement

Une nouvelle économie sociale de marché ? Quels modèles d’entreprise pour un développement durable ?

Just over ten years ago Michel Albert published an influential book Capitalism against Capitalism (Capitalisme contre capitalisme, Paris: Seuil, 1991) in which he contrasted two models of capitalism: the "neo-American" model, geared to individual success and profit, and the "Rhineland" model, which emphasized collective success, consensus and concern for the long term.
Since then, Michel Albert has often had things to say about the decline of the Rhineland model, and the retreat of "social market economics" in favour of the Anglo-Saxon model of capitalism. But now suddenly he is arguing that firms -making up for the shortcomings of the state- are paradoxically starting in the United States to embody a new style of social market economics...
He is now arguing that there are two contrasting models of the firm: one is concerned only with maximizing profits for shareholders, whereas the other is motivated by the ideal of broad-based partnerships, seeking to reconcile the interests of customers, shareholdersand employees as well as both short- and long-term demands.
And, somewhat surprisingly, Michel Albert reveals that this new style of firm, which is both socially responsible and a highly efficient business, is coming from the United States to show us what to do.

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Entreprises, travail - Ressources naturelles, énergie, environnement

Wind power in Finland up to the year 2025

In this article we present scenarios of wind power development in Finland up to the year 2025. We asked 14 experts to describe probable and preferable futures, through the means of a questionnaire and interviews. The 28 cases were grouped using cluster analysis, and the emerging five clusters were complemented into scenarios by qualitative analysis of the interviews. Wind power production grows in all scenarios but there were differences in the order of magnitude of ten The growth rate of ...

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Forum

Ressources naturelles, énergie, environnement

Et si George Bush avait raison ? La position américaine sur le protocole de Kyoto

In December 1997, the leaders of 168 countries agreed in Kyoto to reduce their emissions of greenhouse gases which are suspected of disturbing the climate by 5.2% before 2012.
Four years later, the United States withdrew from the agreements. Why? Pierre Bonnaure tries to explain the American position and to demonstrate that ultimately the United States perhaps does more for the environment than the European countries...
Leaving aside George Bush, André Lebeau replies that we are, for the first time, confronted with a truly global challenge, a challenge that requires humanity to act globally. The fact that the United States is the leader of the world means that it has a duty to act in the best interests of the future of humankind. It is therefore altogether regrettable that the United States is more concerned to protect its own interests rather than to lead global action in the face of the threats looming over the Earth.

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Ressources naturelles, énergie, environnement - Territoires, réseaux

« Rendre les villes durables grâce à leurs habitants »

Aujourd'hui, près de la moitié (47 %) de l'humanité vit en milieu urbain. Si cette tendance se poursuit, cette part passera à 58 % en 2020. Or, les villes concentrent le plus d'impacts néfastes sur l'environnement et sont souvent synonymes de perte du lien social. S'il n'existe pas de définition de ce que devrait être une « ville durable », les expériences d'intégration de cette problématique dans la gestion urbaine se multiplient. Ces stratégies peuvent prendre la ...

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Forum

Ressources naturelles, énergie, environnement

Et si George Bush avait tout faux ? Le changement climatique, un défi planétaire

In December 1997, the leaders of 168 countries agreed in Kyoto to reduce their emissions of greenhouse gases which are suspected of disturbing the climate by 5.2% before 2012.
Four years later, the United States withdrew from the agreements. Why? Pierre Bonnaure tries to explain the American position and to demonstrate that ultimately the United States perhaps does more for the environment than the European countries...
Leaving aside George Bush, André Lebeau replies that we are, for the first time, confronted with a truly global challenge, a challenge that requires humanity to act globally. The fact that the United States is the leader of the world means that it has a duty to act in the best interests of the future of humankind. It is therefore altogether regrettable that the United States is more concerned to protect its own interests rather than to lead global action in the face of the threats looming over the Earth.

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Recherche, sciences, techniques - Ressources naturelles, énergie, environnement

Life in 2013

Le magazine Wired a fêté en avril 2003 son 10e anniversaire. Pour l'occasion, un dossier spécial a rassemblé des articles qui tentent d'anticiper les innovations probables dans différents domaines pour les 10 ans à venir. Peter Schwartz et Doug Randall, du Global Business Network, expliquent comment, selon eux, " l'hydrogène peut sauver l'Amérique ". L'indépendance énergétique de ce pays doit devenir " une priorité nationale " et engager des efforts de financement massifs, comparables à ceux qui ont été ...

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Ressources naturelles, énergie, environnement

« Quelles perspectives pour les énergies renouvelables en France pour 2010 et au-delà ? »

Ce dossier fait le point sur les avantages présentés par les énergies renouvelables et détaille leurs inconvénients, tout en montrant qu'ils ne sont pas insurmontables. Une directive européenne de septembre 2001 fixe à la France l'objectif de s'approvisionner pour 21 % de sa consommation d'électricité à partir d'énergies renouvelables en 2010, contre 15 % aujourd'hui. D'autre part, il a été proposé au sommet de Johannesburg, en 2002, que chaque État membre augmente de deux points ...

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Revue

Ressources naturelles, énergie, environnement

Au musée des désastres. À propos de l’exposition « Ce qui arrive » à la fondation Cartier pour l’art contemporain

The exhibition entitled "Ce qui arrive" at the Cartier Foundation in Paris until the end of March 2003 is well worth seeing, according to Jean-Jacques Salomon. The artworks on show remind us, through the wide range of representations of catastrophes of all sorts, that scientific and technological progress does not occur without creating victims - far from it.
After describing the high points of this exhibition , Jean-Jacques Salomon goes on to look at the relationship between human beings and scientific progress, and the consequences of this progress. He discusses Jean-Pierre Dupuy's notion of "enlightened catastrophism" and the role of catastrophes in anticipating risks, as well as the precautionary principle and its limitations as it is currently defined. In his view, matters are not closed and technological risks are not unavoidable: past catastrophes (apart from natural disasters) provide us with experiences that enable us to increase our vigilance and improve our capacity to anticipate and prevent the risks that human beings themselves create.

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Géopolitique - Ressources naturelles, énergie, environnement

« Les nouveaux enjeux pétroliers en Afrique »

Si le pétrole sur le continent africain ne représente qu'un peu plus de 3 % des réserves mondiales prouvées et 5 % de la production mondiale, l'Afrique est néanmoins considérée par les États-Unis et l'Europe comme une source d'approvisionnement privilégiée. L'exploitation pétrolière de ce continent, par rapport aux autres grandes zones, est récente, mais il dispose de nombreux atouts qui devraient favoriser son développement. En outre, l'importance toute relative de l'Afrique subsaharienne, n'empêche pas ...

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Revue

Ressources naturelles, énergie, environnement

Politique énergétique : les enjeux. La France peut-elle encore définir une politique énergétique nationale ?

In 2003 there has to be a major national debate in France about energy policy prior to the passing of a parliamentary bill which could well mark a radical change in the national and international energy situation. Jean-Marie Chevalier explains here the key issues involved in this debate and in the bill.
The key issues include the opening up of the markets for gas and electricity, which have hitherto been state monopolies in France; the greater degree of competition required under EU directives and the rules of the Single Market; and, at the same time, the pressing need to regulate the market, in particular in order to offset its inevitable tendency to concentrate on the short term and to ensure that medium and long-term needs are taken into consideration (including the need to encourage the use of renewable energy sources), as are also the externalities such as global warming, disposal of nuclear waste, etc.
For the first time, perhaps, in France and in Europe the following issues will be the subject of real debate:
- the advantages and dangers of public monopolies and of market forces if they were to operate without the rules (which ones?) being clearly established;
- the choices between different types of energy, the virtues and drawbacks of each kind, their costs and benefits, the various ways of organizing the production and distribution of energy, the costs and pricing, what they cover and what they leave out, etc.
In this article, Jean-Marie Chevalier sets out these issues extremely clearly and provides us with what we need to know in order to take part in a debate that so far has tended to be the preserve of a few experts.

CR table ronde

Institutions - Ressources naturelles, énergie, environnement

Vingt défis pour la planète ; vingt ans pour y faire face.

Jean-François Rischard, luxembourgeois d'origine et vice-président pour l'Europe de la Banque mondiale, est venu le 5 février présenter son ouvrage "20 défis pour la planète, 20 ans pour y faire face", en précisant qu'il ne l'avait pas écrit en tant que représentant de son institution, mais comme un simple citoyen qui se fait du souci pour l'avenir. Il a introduit son exposé en faisant un état des lieux rapide des problèmes planétaires et en expliquant ...

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Revue

Ressources naturelles, énergie, environnement

L’agriculture raisonnée. Limites et alternatives du modèle agricole dominant

Starting in the 19th century and during the 20th century a model of farming became dominant in France, and more widely across Europe, which relied heavily on mechanization and the use of industrial chemicals and thus made possible enormous increases in yields. In this way, the countries of Europe were able to achieve the goal of producing a sufficient quantity of food to feed themselves, though not without incurring some social and environmental costs.
The authors of this article argue that alternatives have emerged that would remedy these negative side-effects of the dominant model: either the model could be radically altered, which is what the supporters of sustainable agriculture or organic farming try to do; or it could be transformed into "rational agriculture", which is what they propose here.
This type of agriculture can be described as "scientific and competitive, aiming to meet the demand for food in terms of both quantity and quality". This is the approach that is now being adopted in France with the encouragement of the state, business and the main farming unions. It seeks to overcome the drawbacks of the old dominant model but without challenging the accumulated wisdom of the last 150 years of scientific farming, so that the authors reckon that it has a good chance of succeeding. Nevertheless it remains to be seen whether the modifications will prove adequate in the long term and whether the financial assistance given to the new approach will not be questioned at the international level.

Revue

Ressources naturelles, énergie, environnement - Société, modes de vie

Propre dedans, sale dehors. Sur le paradoxe de nos moeurs

"If our bathwater was cloudy, stinking, coloured by effluents, the mistress of the house would be covered with shame. The same effluents (but worse) lurk in the stream that runs nearby. Yet there is not the same sense of humiliation!" Bernard Vaudour-Faguet highlights the striking paradox of our times: we are deeply conscious of the environment in our homes, but the willingness to intervene tends to fade away once we step outside.
To put it bluntly, the author is highly critical of the contrast between the extreme care about cleanliness in the home and the lack of concern about public spaces, open-air rubbish tips, oil spills and the like.
Even worse, he criticizes the ultimate absurdity of the process: "the products intended to cleanse our selfish little world pollute, disturb and kill the real world, the great outside of rivers, the land, the biosphere, life itself".

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Économie, emploi - Ressources naturelles, énergie, environnement

« Le rebond de l’économie russe »

La transition de l'économie russe vers une économie de marché est maintenant irréversible. La croissance a été soutenue depuis 1999 par la bonne tenue des prix du pétrole et par un phénomène de rattrapage. Par ailleurs, un environnement fiscal et juridique plus libéral se met progressivement en place. Un des éléments marquants de ce renouveau a été le retour en force de l'industrie pétrolière russe sur la scène mondiale. La Russie est devenue, avec l'OPEP (Organisation des ...

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Ressources naturelles, énergie, environnement

Le pétrole, et après ? Comment l’hydrogène pourrait sauver le monde

L'épuisement, à moyen ou long terme, des réserves pétrolières, la pollution, le réchauffement climatique se conjuguent pour rendre de plus en plus urgente la recherche de solutions énergétiques alternatives. L'intérêt pour l'hydrogène, découvert au XVIIIe siècle et utilisé dès la fin du XIXe siècle (notamment pour l'éclairage), renaît après une longue éclipse, et suscite d'immenses espoirs. Ce dossier de Science & Vie fait le point sur les différents procédés d'extraction de l'hydrogène, comme ...

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Chapitre Ressources...

Ce chapitre est extrait du Rapport Vigie 2016 de Futuribles International, qui propose un panorama structuré des connaissances et des incertitudes des experts que l'association a mobilisés pour explorer les évolutions des 15 à 35 prochaines années sur 11 thématiques.