Climate change is now a familiar subject for most of the individuals living in the industrialized countries, and no doubt a subject of growing interest in the emergent countries such as China. It arises with increasing frequency in the discussion of current affairs, when there is a significant climatic event (tornado, flood, drought etc.), international negotiations on how to deal with global warming, or scientific discussions etc.
How has this theme lodged itself in public debate? Who are the actors in that debate and how much of a part do they play? André Lebeau has examined these questions, attempting to determine how this initially highly scientific subject has over time found a foothold in economic, political and media debate.
After a brief presentation of the various actors concerned, he makes a detailed analysis of the emergence of the debate within the scientific community, particularly through the IPCC (the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change). He then shows how climate change has entered economic debate, further gaining in complexity because it is so difficult to envisage its impacts or the economic solutions to it over time-periods of the order of a century. He then stresses the contribution of the media which, while giving the phenomenon visibility and hence making it a subject of interest for public opinion and the political world, do not always distinguish between what is essential and what is merely secondary. Lastly, he clarifies the current role of public opinion and of political decision-makers with regard to climate change, stressing that the process of entry into the debate and of dealing politically with climate questions is a very slow one - perhaps too slow, given the scale of the responses required.

The challenge posed by climate change and the predicted scarcity of fossil fuels is so great that energy questions are increasingly in the headlines. There has, in this context, been an increasing promotion of renewable energies, as is attested by France and the EU's stated objective of producing 20% of consumed energy from renewable sources by 2020.
Among the different renewable energies, the ocean represents an immense reserve (tidal and tidal-stream energy, wave and wind power, marine biomass etc.) and a genuine asset for those countries like France which have the good fortune to have many seaboards (both at home and overseas). In order to gauge the potential of marine renewable energies, Ifremer began an enormous foresight exercise in March 2007 examining scenarios to the year 2030 in partnership with the main actors in the maritime world and with methodological support from Futuribles.
Denis Lacroix and Michel Paillard, who were members of the steering committee of that study, present the broad outlines of this foresight exercise and the possible prospects for marine renewable energies. After reviewing the various forms of marine energy, they set out the methods followed and the range of possible scenarios selected, together with the potential of the different technologies associated with marine renewable energies. They then show the extent to which these energies could contribute to the French energy supply to 2030, before developing a "normative" scenario that can serve as a strategic axis for French energy policy so far as marine renewable energies are concerned (on the basis of a contribution of around 3% to the French energy mix in 2020).

La Chine héberge environ 40 % de la main-d'oeuvre agricole mondiale, mais elle doit nourrir 22 % de la population mondiale avec seulement 8 % des terres cultivables de la planète. Le pays est toujours un exportateur net de produits agricoles, mais il est de plus en plus dépendant des importations de soja et de maïs, dans un contexte de hausse constante des prix agricoles mondiaux. C'est pourquoi le ministère chinois de l'Agriculture aurait envisagé de favoriser la location ou ...

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La voiture électrique n'est pas un très bon souvenir pour les constructeurs français. Il y a plus de 10 ans, ils se sont lancés dans sa production mais le marché n'a pas décollé. Aujourd'hui, 6 000 véhicules de ce type roulent en France (et 30 000 dans le monde). En 1995, Jacques Calvet, ex-PDG de Peugeot, avait prévu un parc de 200 000 véhicules à l'horizon 2005-2010. L'autonomie limitée à 80 km des véhicules et ...

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Norbert Kriedel et Sebastian Schröer, de l'Institut mondial d'économie de Hambourg, abordent dans la revue Energiewirtschaftliche Tagesfragen le délicat problème de l'avenir du bouquet énergétique allemand. La coalition sociale-démocrate / verte avait en effet décidé de mettre un terme au nucléaire en Allemagne en 2000. Les dernières centrales nucléaires encore en fonctionnement devraient ainsi fermer leurs portes en 2021. Parallèlement, l'Allemagne a misé massivement sur les énergies renouvelables, notamment depuis un ensemble de lois adoptées en 2000 ...

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La Bibliographie prospective des mois de juillet et août 2008 consacre son Focus au rapport publié par l'AIE (l'Agence internationale de l'énergie) sur les "perspectives technologiques de l'énergie", c'est-à-dire, sur les différentes technologies, plus ou moins "mûres" en 2008, susceptibles de ralentir le réchauffement climatique. Il insiste sur la nécessité d'accélérer les efforts en R&D pour atteindre les objectifs fixés à l'horizon 2050 en matière de réduction des émissions de CO2. Vous trouverez ...

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The era of cheap oil seems to be coming to an end and the exhaustion of fossil resources forms part of possible - if not, indeed, probable - scenarios over the next half century, as was shown by the special issue of Futuribles on "Energy Prospects and the Greenhouse Effect" of January 2006. If we add to this the need to reduce CO2 emissions in a context of global warming, it is high time, in the developed countries, to reflect on the possible alternatives to fossil fuels. In France, a team from EDF-R&D has considered this question seriously and constructed a scenario in which buildings (in the residential and tertiary sectors) will be operating without fossil fuels by the year 2050. They present their scenario here, together with the hypotheses on which it is based (and the reasons for selecting them) and the strategy required to arrive at such a point.
After reviewing the current situation of buildings in France in energy terms, the authors lay out in detail their recommendations for improving insulation, energy efficiency and the use of renewable energies in new building and renovation. They show that, by implementing the measures they advocate, France could do without recourse to fossil fuels in building without significantly increasing the demand for electricity while, moreover, reducing its CO2 emissions by 90 million tonnes per annum. Lastly, they insist that such a change could be credibly achieved by 2050: the building sector could technically do without fossil fuels thanks to energy savings, the use of a little extra electricity and biomass, and appropriate financial instruments (to incite households to invest more in this area).

L’exposé est centré sur la hausse des prix des produits agricoles et la sécurité alimentaire. Il s’appuie sur deux documents qui en constituent la toile de fond : — Le modèle économique « Oléosim » : analyse structurelle du marché international des produits de grande culture, basé sur les oléagineux et sur toutes les grandes productions végétales. — L’exercice de prospective « INRA 2013 », fait en parallèle avec le modèle Oléosim, simule les conséquences de l’adaptation de la Politique Agricole Commune aux décisions ...

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Nous avons attiré ici l'attention sur l'importance de la consommation des circuits intégrés tant pour les utilisateurs en termes de budget, qu'au niveau de la planète du point de vue de l'environnement. Une prise de conscience s'opère, du côté de certains grands consommateurs et d'acteurs majeurs de l'offre. Clairement, l'économie d'énergie est en train de devenir un enjeu central pour les entreprises ayant des parcs importants de machines et bientôt pour ...

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Une co-production Arte France / mano a mano / Futuribles International C'est désormais une évidence : la Terre se réchauffe et les changements climatiques vont au mieux remodeler notre monde, au pire le conduire à sa perte. Avec un ou deux degrés de plus, notre planète, déjà surchauffée par les émissions de gaz à effet de serre, risque de s'embraser. Cette vision d'apocalypse, programmée pour les décennies à venir, n'appartient plus aux seuls écologistes. Désormais, les scientifiques, les politiques ...

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Sustainable development is in vogue. It has taken a long time for this to come about, but seldom are political or economic decisions taken these days without reference to this imperative. This is crucial, but not, in the end, all that new. As Jean Haëntjens shows here, whereas the state - particularly in France, but also elsewhere in Europe - drags its heels before engaging in new fields, towns and cities have generally taken a lead, particularly where sustainable development is concerned.
Recalling the recent renovation of cities and urban authorities in France, the author stresses the extent to which urban centres are crucibles of social and cultural innovation. There is evidence of this from the past, and current trends, particularly in Europe, confirm it: cities are playing a pioneering role in sustainable development, whether in terms of adaptation of the living environment, transport or modes of life... As Jean Haëntjens argues, cities are, without a doubt, the relevant level from which to bring sustainable development into daily life and prepare citizens for a post-oil world.

À l'occasion du 10e anniversaire de Nordregio, le centre nordique pour le développement territorial, le professeur Klaus Kunzmann a présenté cinq scénarios sur l'espace européen à l'horizon 2020 qui, sans envisager de rupture ni proposer un regard totalement neuf sur la question, permettent d'identifier les directions possibles de l'Union européenne (UE). Business as usual Le développement territorial de l'Europe continue à se faire en fonction du développement économique dans un contexte de politiques libérales ...

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La Bibliographie prospective du mois de juin 2008 consacre son Focus au rapport annuel du CIHEAM (Centre international de hautes études agronomiques méditerrannéennes), intitulé Mediterra 2008. Les futurs agricoles et alimentaires en Méditerranée. Cet ouvrage présente les grands défis - à la fois hydraulique, démographique et technique - auxquels est confronté le monde méditerranéen, et quatre scénarios d'avenir possibles, du laisser-aller à la mobilisation des politiques. Vous trouverez par ailleurs, et comme chaque mois, une sélection de comptes rendus de livres ...

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In order to reduce its greenhouse gas emissions and combat global warming, France has set itself the objective, within the framework of a European directive, of sourcing 21% of its electricity needs from renewable energies by 2010. Among the various renewable energies, wind energy has a significant part to play, since France has the second highest wind resource potential in Europe, after the UK.
Denis Florin and Florian Temime offer an account here of the wind energy industry and the various players within it. After a brief analysis of the world market for wind power, characterized by rising demand and by a supply that is currently in a phase of consolidation, they examine three groups of players in this sector - industrialists tempted by vertical integration, electricity producers and oil companies - and set out their respective strategies and future outlooks with regard to wind energy.

96 % des Européens affirment que la protection de l'environnement est très ou plutôt importante pour eux, et 86 % estiment qu'ils peuvent jouer un rôle à titre personnel dans la protection de l'environnement de leur pays, selon le dernier Eurobaromètre réalisé fin 2007 auprès de 27 000 personnes dans les 27 États membres de l'Union européenne.

In this second article in a series on water-related violence, begun in the Futuribles issue of March 2008 , Pierre Blanc examines the Israel/Palestine case. He shows the extent to which, despite a substantial concentration of water in the West Bank, the Palestinian population finds itself in a precarious situation with regard to water. This relates mainly to Israel's stranglehold on a large part of the region's water resources and their management, together with its extensive use of irrigation in agriculture. The building of the West Bank Barrier between Palestinians and Israelis has simply accentuated this inequality in the use of regional water resources.
Despite this, Pierre Blanc informs us, it is not entirely implausible that this very unbalanced situation could be overcome. It is conceivable that some of the water controlled by the Israelis could be handed back to the Palestinians as part of the peace agreements, particularly if a reduction in the number of Israeli settlements could be assumed, but also if Israel were to take the (economically rational) decision to plant fewer "thirsty" crops or to sub-contract part of its agricultural production to the Palestinians (with a simultaneous increase in water supply). The jobs thereby created would contribute to raising the standard of living, which would in turn increase the consumption of higher-value-added Israeli products. But none of this can be achieved without the political will to do so.

Quelques mois après les « émeutes de la faim » qui ont secoué un certain nombre de pays souffrant particulièrement de la hausse des prix agricoles, le magazine de l?INRA (Institut national de la recherche agronomique) a choisi de revenir sur une question cruciale pour l?agriculture mondiale, celle de l?avenir de la recherche agronomique. Ce dossier présente notamment les résultats des derniers travaux d?Agrimonde, un projet initié en 2006 par l?INRA et le CIRAD (Centre de coopération ...

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Des valeurs et principes aux actes, il y a un pas qui n'est pas toujours facile à franchir, notamment en matière écologique . Une équipe de l'institut Max Planck de biologie évolutive et de météorologie, en Allemagne, le confirme, au terme d'une expérience de type " théorie des jeux " appliquée à la question du changement climatique.

L'éolien a le vent en poupe et la puissance installée en Europe pourrait faire un bond avec le plan d'envergure dévoilé récemment par le gouvernement britannique.

At a time when energy questions - be it global warming or the depletion of sources of fossil fuels - are increasingly in the news, nuclear fusion seems, in the very long term, to raise the possibility of providing humanity with virtually inexhaustible energy. Europe is in the forefront of research in this field. It is the leader in a major international collaborative exercise which should lead to the establishment of the International Thermonuclear Experimental Reactor.
After a presentation of the issues surrounding fusion, Claudie Haigneré and Bernard Bigot, who are closely involved, through their respective activities, in this venture, outline the genesis of the ITER project and the manifold inter-governmental negotiations - both between EU member states and with the other members of the project (Japan, USA, Russia etc.) - that have accompanied its development. Those negotiations led to the signing in November 2006 of a precise cooperation agreement on the ITER programme (with sharing of the financial burden), which came into force in October 2007. ITER (which is to be built at Cadarache in France) thus represents a particularly successful example of inter-governmental cooperation in the scientific and technical fields. For this reason, the authors see it as a model to be followed in many other fields included within the European Research Area (ERA), which the EU intends to develop in the coming years.

World Water Day will be celebrated on 22 March 2008, as it has been in all of the previous 16 years. By highlighting the importance of this resource, the United Nations reminds us how essential water is to human life and how inequitably it is distributed over our planet, occasioning ever more conflicts or rivalries between countries or between variably endowed populations within a single country.
Pierre Blanc offers a survey here of what he terms "water-related violence" - indicating, not the imminent threat of "water wars", but a form of the violation of elementary human needs - in the Near East region. He first puts Lebanon under the spotlight, that country being a typical case of a state languishing under water domination, since a large proportion of its water resources have for many years been blocked by Israel, while supply, in the north, is dependent on the goodwill of Syria. He then covers the water violence specific to Egypt (the Nile Basin, in particular), recalling the "water riots" of Summer 2007, which pointed up the poor national management of water resources and purification. Lastly, after focussing on the city of Damascus and the differential treatment of cities and periphery (rich and poor), Pierre Blanc concludes that, at both national and international levels, the strongest (or richest) prevail in achieving access to water, and that this trend might, unfortunately, be with us for many years to come.

La Bibliographie prospective du mois de mars 2008 consacre son Focus au rapport de l’OCDE intitulé Perspectives de l’environnement à l’horizon 2030. Ces secondes Perspectives de l’environnement présentent un scénario de l’inaction et des scénarios alternatifs montrant que les politiques et technologies nécessaires pour faire face aux problèmes existent et sont financièrement abordables. Vous trouverez par ailleurs, et comme chaque mois, une sélection de comptes rendus de livres, études et rapports à dimension prospective, et ...

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This month, the European column is devoted to the Common Agricultural Policy (CAP), the oldest and most extensive of the European Union's common policies (dating from 1962 and accounting for 45% of the European budget). Apart from its initial objectives (increasing agricultural productivity, providing a fair standard of living for the agricultural population, stabilizing markets, guaranteeing security of supply and ensuring reasonable prices for consumers), the CAP today forms part of an approach involving respect for the environment and rural development. Nevertheless, as Jean-François Drevet reminds us here, the system that was set up in a climate of post-war shortages is not well-suited to present realities. Moreover, it is open to many criticisms regarding the size of its budget, the problems posed by enlargement and the inequality of the assistance provided, which favours large landowners. After reviewing the reforms begun in 1992 and 1999, Jean-François Drevet outlines the changes provided for in the Treaty of Lisbon and recommends taking advantage of the strong financial situation of the agricultural sector to carry through this reform.

Selon la FAO (Organisation des Nations unies pour l'alimentation et l'agriculture), l'agriculture biologique n'a pas un potentiel suffisant pour satisfaire la demande alimentaire mondiale.