Ressources naturelles, énergie, environnement

Cette page regroupe l'ensemble des publications de Futuribles sur cette thématique (Vigie, revue, bibliographie, études, etc.)

Revue

Économie, emploi - Ressources naturelles, énergie, environnement

Green Growth: From Intentions to Action

In an increasingly demanding context of climate change, exhaustion of fossil energy resources and sustained economic crisis, a concept is gradually gaining ground, the concept of “green growth”, which aims to promote an environmentally-friendly form of economic development. “Greening” economic growth means developing ecological activity, investing in renewable energies and in improving yields from energy and materials use etc. However, moving from the political declaration of such ambitions to their realization is something that has not yet been done convincingly, particularly in Europe. To make that move, we would need a solid vision of the economic model that properly applies to “green growth”.

Pierre-André Jouvet and Christian de Perthuis have examined the subject and present their economic analysis of such growth in this article. They stress, initially, that we have moved from a “rarity barrier” where resources are concerned to an “environmental barrier –in other words, from a physical limit associated with a store of resources to a limit associated with human capabilities to regulate the natural system. It is actually becoming essential to integrate natural capital into the factors of production (alongside capital and labour). This implies that investments can be made to improve this factor of production. It also implies that natural capital comes into play in the distribution of wealth between factors of production.

Yet, as Jouvet and de Perthuis argue, most initiatives implemented in the name of green growth are, for the moment, cosmetic and do not truly bring the environment into the productive system. Hence they have little chance of sparking a new economic dynamic. Real change can come only from the remuneration of natural capital by reallocating the incomes from both labour and capital on a basis proportional to their initial contributions to environmental pollution. With this aim in mind, the authors propose various courses of action –expanding the concept of efficiency, effecting “ecological transition”, incorporating fairness into ecological choices etc.– and show what financial levers are available for achieving green growth.

Revue

Ressources naturelles, énergie, environnement - Territoires, réseaux

Area Plans for “Factor 4”: Trajectories to 2020, 2030 and 2050 in the Tours Conurbation

In 2009 a programme –“Re-thinking Society in a Post-carbon Society”– steered jointly by the Foresight Department of the French Ecology Ministry and the French Environment and Energy Management Agency (ADEME), was launched in France. It is still ongoing and aims to produce a final report in 2013. The idea of a transition towards a “post-carbon” society includes four main objectives: reducing greenhouse gas emissions by 2050 to one quarter of what they were in 1990; near-autonomy with regard to carbon energies (petrol, gas, coal); an adequate capacity to adapt to climate change and, lastly, greater attention to situations of “energy precariousness”.

As part of the dossier Futuribles is devoting to this programme this month, this article represents a highly informative case study of the implementation of an area strategy for transition to “factor 4” –that is to say, the reduction of greenhouse gas emissions by 2050 to one quarter of what they were in 1990. Baratier, Beauvais and Métais show how, largely on the basis of its “Territorial Coherence Plan” (ScoT), the Tours conurbation has set about equipping itself, in a two-stage process (with target dates of 2020 and 2030), to achieve a post-carbon transition by 2050. They outline the key measures and objectives by sector and major energy consumption element, aiming to modify lifestyles in the conurbation so as to make Tours a “low carbon” city, a city of localities. Local public action, which is essential for successfully achieving such a transition, cannot, of course, be effective without convergent efforts at all levels. Lastly, above and beyond this interconnectedness of public policies, the authors stress a number of questions that are equally crucial (in terms of timescales, economic investment, democracy etc.) in the implementation of a “territorial factor 4”.

Revue

Ressources naturelles, énergie, environnement - Territoires, réseaux

Local Actions in the Post-carbon Transition: A Simulation of the Macroeconomic Effects

In 2009 a programme –“Re-thinking Society in a Post-carbon Society”– steered jointly by the Foresight Department of the French Ecology Ministry and the French Environment and Energy Management Agency (ADEME), was launched in France. It is still ongoing and aims to produce a final report in 2013. The idea of a transition towards a “post-carbon” society includes four main objectives: reducing greenhouse gas emissions by 2050 to one quarter of what they were in 1990; near-autonomy with regard to carbon energies (petrol, gas, coal); an adequate capacity to adapt to climate change and, lastly, greater attention to situations of “energy precariousness”.

As part of the dossier Futuribles is devoting to this programme this month, Cédric Allio, Henri Waisman and Jean-Charles Hourcade present here the study carried out by CIRED (International Research Center on Environment and Development) on the role played by local action in the post-carbon transition. The authors begin by reminding us of the importance of the transport sector in the increase in energy demand and in greenhouse gas emissions, and the need to bring about significant changes in individuals’ mobility behaviours if a post-carbon transition on a substantial scale is to be achieved. To do this, local initiatives could be crucial, given their impact on the spatial organization of territories, and could complement the measures put in place at higher levels (national, European or global). This is what clearly emerges from the model developed by CIRED to study the interactions between local and global levels in the post-carbon transition and to provide a macroeconomic frame for the scenarios envisaged in the “Post-carbon Cities” programme. The authors offer a comparison of two scenarios for reducing greenhouse gas emissions by half by 2050, but doing so by very different transition processes, and they show how, in these two contexts, local and global actions are interconnected and how that connection and a correct spacing of actions over time are crucial for carrying through a post-carbon transition.

Revue

Ressources naturelles, énergie, environnement - Société, modes de vie

Towards Sustainable Lifestyles. A Variety of Lifestyles for a Single Ambition: Post-carbon Society

In 2009 a programme –“Re-thinking Society in a Post-carbon Society”– steered jointly by the Foresight Department of the French Ecology Ministry and the French Environment and Energy Management Agency (ADEME), was launched in France. It is still ongoing and aims to produce a final report in 2013. The idea of a transition towards a “post-carbon” society includes four main objectives: reducing greenhouse gas emissions by 2050 to one quarter of what they were in 1990; near-autonomy with regard to carbon energies (petrol, gas, coal); an adequate capacity to adapt to climate change and, lastly, greater attention to situations of “energy precariousness”.

As part of the dossier Futuribles is devoting to this programme this month, Andreas Huber, Sébastien Girard and Pierre Le Marre lay out in this article the results of the studies they have carried out on “sustainable urban milieus”. After a presentation of the notion of “milieu” (based here on a segmentation using the Socio-milieus® method) and of the typology employed (nine main social milieus, three emergent milieus and 16 contrasting profiles), the authors show the extent to which individuals’ carbon footprints vary, depending upon lifestyles, and what a determining effect these lifestyles have in the fields of housing and transport. They then specify the various factors influencing behaviour in the direction of sustainable consumption (or not) and the different types of strategies of intervention that are likely to modify those behaviours. Lastly, they detail two targeted strategies, one aimed at the “precarious seniors” milieu and the other at the “eco-elite” milieu. Despite certain imperfections that remain to be sorted out in the study of sustainable urban milieus, these studies open up new perspectives for the development of sociologically targeted policies for a post-carbon transition.

Revue

Ressources naturelles, énergie, environnement - Territoires, réseaux

Post-carbon Society: Pioneering Cities

In 2009 a programme was launched, steered jointly by the Foresight Mission of the French Ecology Ministry and by the French Environment and Energy Management Agency (ADEME), called “Rethinking Cities in a Post-carbon Society.” The programme’s work is still on-going towards a final report planned for 2013. The idea of a transition towards a “post-carbon” society embraces four main objectives: the reduction of greenhouse gases by 2050 to one quarter of their 1990 levels, virtual autonomy in respect of carbon-based energies (oil, gas and coal), an adequate capacity for adaptation to climate change and, lastly, greater attention to situations of energy precariousness.

As part of the dossier Futuribles is devoting, this month, to this programme, Cyria Emelianoff and Elsa Mor show, in this article, how certain cities have gradually taken this subject on board, developing –often thanks to civil society initiatives and the emergence of networks of pioneering cities at the European level– highly ambitious strategies of transition towards less carbon energy consumption and lower greenhouse gas emissions. Here they outline two concrete cases of cities that are highly active in this field, Hanover and Bristol, showing their aims, the strategies deployed, the levers used and the results obtained. They particularly stress the importance played in these two transitions by the economic and environmental departments coming together on the question, and also by the development of “multi-partner” approaches. They are, nevertheless, critical of the difficulties in establishing proper “multi-scale climate governance” involving –above and beyond these pioneering cities– the regional, national, European and international levels, with a view to a more large-scale post-carbon transition.

Revue

Ressources naturelles, énergie, environnement - Territoires, réseaux

Towards Post-carbon Cities: Six Contrasting Scenarios

In recent decades, many studies and international gatherings at the highest level have raised awareness among the general public of the serious risks posed, on the one hand, by global warming and, on the other, by the possible exhaustion of fossil fuel resources. In this context, the idea of a transition towards a so-called “post-carbon” society has gradually been gaining ground. This has a number of central objectives: the reduction of greenhouse gases by 2050 to one quarter of their 1990 levels (in the countries of the North), near autonomy with regard to carbon-based energies (oil, gas and coal), an adequate capacity for adaptation to climate change and, lastly, greater attention to situations of energy precariousness.

This is why in 2009 a programme was launched, steered jointly by the Foresight Mission of the French Ecology Ministry and by the French Environment and Energy Management Agency (ADEME), called “Rethinking Cities in a Post-carbon Society”. This programme’s work is still on-going towards a final report planned for 2013. This month, Futuribles is devoting a special dossier to it, coordinated by Jacques Theys, who launched this programme, and Éric Vidalenc who now coordinates it with Nathalie Etahiri.

Their article, which opens this dossier, outlines the approach and thinking at the heart of this study, which provides a deep analysis of the role cities play –or might play– in the promotion of major developments and changes to encourage a post-carbon society. In it, most importantly, the authors present the six transition scenarios that have been developed with the aim of proposing various possible routes to post-carbon cities in 2050 through highly concrete initiatives and measures in the fields of transport and housing policy, on decisions around energy, housing conditions, lifestyles etc. Lastly, they stress a major issue underlying such an ambition –namely, the way that short-, medium- and long-term goals hang together.

Bibliography

Ressources naturelles, énergie, environnement

Fresh Currents : Japan’s Flow from a Nuclear Past to a Renewable Future

Initialement diffusé sous la forme d’un livre électronique en anglais (depuis octobre 2012, une version japonaise est vendue en librairie), cet ouvrage collectif est le fruit d’une initiative consécutive à l’accident nucléaire de Fukushima (11 mars 2011) qui associe The Kyoto Journal, un magazine trimestriel généraliste, et plusieurs contributeurs de la société civile, japonais et étrangers. L’énergie nucléaire a permis au Japon de se relever des cendres de la guerre jusqu’à devenir la deuxième économie ...

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Bibliography

Ressources naturelles, énergie, environnement

« Which Decarbonisation Pathway for China ? Insights from Recent Energy-emissions Scenarios »

Lors du sommet de Copenhague, la Chine s’est engagée à réduire l’intensité carbone de son économie de 40 % à 45 % entre 2005 et 2020. Mais, pour l’instant, aucun n’objectif n’a été fixé à un horizon plus éloigné, même si plusieurs scénarios envisagent des pistes de décarbonisation du pays. Selon l’auteur de cette étude, ces scénarios devraient être mieux exploités par le pays, mais ils restent souvent partiels, et trop théoriques. C’est pourquoi il ...

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Bibliography

Ressources naturelles, énergie, environnement

La situation mondiale des pêches et de l’aquaculture 2012

Tous les deux ans depuis 1994, la FAO publie un état des lieux de la pêche et de l’aquaculture dans le monde, en insistant sur les tendances lourdes et les perspectives d’avenir. Dans l’édition 2012, la FAO indique que le secteur (capture et aquaculture) a produit un chiffre record de 148 millions de tonnes de poisson en 2009, dont 128 millions destinées à la consommation humaine, soit une moyenne de 18,4 kg par personne. L’offre ...

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Bibliography

Ressources naturelles, énergie, environnement

World Energy Outlook 2012

La version 2012 du rapport annuel sur l’énergie que publie l’AIE donne un tableau complet des perspectives énergétiques mondiales à l’horizon 2035. L’évolution de la demande énergétique y est analysée dans la première partie à travers le prisme de trois scénarios : un scénario central, « Nouvelles politiques », qui intègre les inflexions des politiques énergétiques, encadré, d’une part, par un scénario « énergivore » (Business as usual) qui ne se préoccupe ni des ressources ni du changement climatique et ...

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Note de veille

Géopolitique - Ressources naturelles, énergie, environnement

Réchauffement climatique : trop tard pour éviter le pire ?

Alors que la communauté internationale se réunit à Doha, au Qatar, pour lancer la deuxième phase du protocole de Kyoto, trois rapports du PNUE (Programme des Nations unies pour l’environnement), de la Banque mondiale et de l’OMM (Organisation météorologique mondiale) confirment la dégradation rapide de la situation climatique mondiale. Selon le PNUE, les émissions mondiales de gaz à effet de serre (GES) ont augmenté de 20 % depuis 2000 [1]. Elles sont désormais supérieures de 14 % au niveau qu ...

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Note de veille

Ressources naturelles, énergie, environnement

Huile et gaz de schiste : une manne providentielle pour le Japon ?

Le 3 octobre 2012, les travaux de prospection conduits par la Japan Petroleum Exploration Co. (JAPEX) sur le gisement d’Ayukawa (préfecture d’Akita, au nord de l’île de Honshu) permettaient de confirmer la présence d’huile de schiste [1] dans les couches profondes du sous-sol (1 800 mètres) [2]. Selon les estimations de la JAPEX, les réserves en huile de schiste du gisement d’Ayukawa sont estimées à cinq millions de barils et à cent millions de barils ...

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Actualité du futur

Ressources naturelles, énergie, environnement

Robusta : déficit de production à l’horizon 2021

Patrick Masson, directeur général d’une filiale du groupe Neumann Kaffe (Maison P. Jobin & Cie) livre une analyse intéressante de la production de café dans les 10 ans à venir sur le site Commodesk.com.Entre 2001 et 2011, la demande de café est passée de 110,3 millions de sacs (de 60 kilos) à 136,4 millions. Si les pays développés restent les premiers consommateurs de café, la consommation de café par habitant dans les pays émergents n ...

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Note de veille

Économie, emploi - Ressources naturelles, énergie, environnement

L’Arabie Saoudite peut-elle devenir importatrice de pétrole ?

Note issue du site www.commodesk.com Entre 2008 et 2012, l’Arabie Saoudite est passée de la 15e à la 6e place mondiale en termes de consommation de pétrole. Cet appétit pour l’or noir trouve son origine dans la croissance démographique qui touche le pays et plus largement la région, le besoin en énergie des infrastructures du saoudian way of life pour les plus favorisés (voitures, air conditionné, usines de désalinisation de l’eau de mer…) et enfin ...

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Revue

Ressources naturelles, énergie, environnement

Energy-Climate Scenarios: An Adjustment after the Economic Crisis, Fukushima, Durban and… Shale Gases

In an article published in these pages in 2011 (no. 373), Patrick Criqui presented a series of scenarios on possible energy and climate trends, taking note of the agreement on climate change signed in late 2009 at the Copenhagen Conference. He pointed out that a paradigm shift was on the cards, which would mean less use of the top-down approach –with national objectives set as a function of international objectives formulated at major conferences– and greater implementation of a bottom-up logic based on national policies put in place in the energy field and as part of the battle against global warming. On the basis of this latter logic, the authors were able to elaborate scenarios at a world level. A few days before the publication of that article, the Fukushima accident occurred in Japan, lending fresh impetus to the energy debate in most of the countries using nuclear power. Does that event, combined with the persistence of the debt crisis, the increased extraction of unconventional hydrocarbons (shale oil and gas) and the fact that international negotiations on climate change (Durban) have merely marked time, modify the projected scenarios –and, if so, to what extent?

Patrick Criqui, Silvana Mima, Pierre-Olivier Peytral and Jean-Christophe Simon consider this question in detail here. They begin by examining the impact of these recent events and developments on the current energy and climate situation. Then, after reminding us of the four world energy scenarios (to a time-horizon of 2030-2050) that were developed in 2009 (together with two “discontinuity scenarios”), they propose an updating that takes account of the perceived consequences of the change of context, stressing two crucial scenarios in particular: the probable (leading to warming in the order of 4°C) and the desirable (limiting warming to 2°C). Lastly, they propose various levers aimed at “making the desirable trajectory possible” (technological agreements, economic instruments, national emission trajectories), in the knowledge that, even if this is achieved, human societies cannot escape having substantially to lower their greenhouse gas emissions in the medium to long term.

Actualité du futur

Économie, emploi - Ressources naturelles, énergie, environnement

Les États-Unis, future puissance pétrolière ?

L’avenir des États-Unis est-il dans… le pétrole ? C’est en tout cas ce que prophétise Walter Russell Mead, un professeur américain de relations internationales. Selon lui, le pays est à l’aube d’une deuxième révolution énergétique grâce au pétrole de schiste. Il rappelle que, selon certaines estimations, les réserves d’or noir américaines (en incluant le pétrole de schiste) seraient supérieures à celles de l’Arabie Saoudite, de l’Irak et de l’Iran réunis. Si la moitié ...

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Note de veille

Ressources naturelles, énergie, environnement

Quel avenir pour la production de pétrole en Irak ?

L’Irak, qui a subi trois décennies de conflits violents, est aujourd’hui le troisième exportateur mondial de pétrole en dépit de l’instabilité et de la violence persistantes dans le pays, car il est parvenu à faire redémarrer lentement sa production qui, en 2011, atteignait trois millions de barils par jour. Les réserves irakiennes prouvées de pétrole mal exploitées sont considérables (elles seraient au cinquième rang mondial). L’Agence internationale de l’énergie (AIE) a jeté un coup de ...

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Note de veille

Économie, emploi - Ressources naturelles, énergie, environnement

Les crises font-elles baisser les émissions de CO2 ?

Les crises économiques entraînent-elles systématiquement une baisse des émissions de CO2 ? Alors qu’il serait tentant de répondre positivement à cette question, un chercheur américain, Richard York, invite au contraire à la prudence : selon lui, si une diminution peut en effet s’observer, elle serait cependant limitée. Dans un article publié dans la revue Nature, il a comparé l’évolution du PIB (produit intérieur brut) par habitant et celles des émissions de CO2 pour plus de 150 pays dont ces ...

(590 more words)

Bibliography

Ressources naturelles, énergie, environnement

The Geopolitics of Natural Gas

Le secteur du gaz naturel a connu au cours de ces dernières années d’importants bouleversements. L’exploitation commercialement viable d’énormes réserves de gaz de schiste procure presque aux États-Unis une autosuffisance qui a de profondes répercussions sur la structure du marché mondial. En Europe et en Asie, d’autres pays envisagent désormais d’exploiter leurs propres réserves de gaz non conventionnel. Les conséquences stratégiques sont également déjà perceptibles, avec l’affaiblissement de la position dominante de la Russie ...

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Bibliography

Ressources naturelles, énergie, environnement

World Nuclear Industry Status Report 2012

Publié pour la première fois en 1992, le World Nuclear Industry Status Report (Rapport sur l’industrie nucléaire dans le monde) fait l’objet d’actualisations quasi annuelles. Le rapport est produit sous la direction de deux consultants indépendants, Mycle Schneider et Antony Froggat, spécialistes des questions de l’énergie et des politiques nucléaires. En 1997, M. Schneider a reçu le Right Livelihood Award, souvent qualifié de « prix Nobel alternatif », « pour l’énergie qu’il consacre à alerter le monde ...

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Chapitre Ressources...

Ce chapitre est extrait du Rapport Vigie 2016 de Futuribles International, qui propose un panorama structuré des connaissances et des incertitudes des experts que l'association a mobilisés pour explorer les évolutions des 15 à 35 prochaines années sur 11 thématiques.