Recherche, sciences, techniques

Cette page regroupe l'ensemble des publications de Futuribles sur cette thématique (Vigie, revue, bibliographie, études, etc.)

Bibliography

Géopolitique - Recherche, sciences, techniques

La Guerre parfaite

Dans son dernier ouvrage, Thérèse Delpech s'est attelée à l'analyse de la thématique de la guerre, essentiellement sur sa forme (mais à l'aune des préoccupations majeures des principaux acteurs du système international). Elle y retrace les multiples types de guerres existants, de la forme classique, qui s'est adaptée, aux formes les plus modernes. De la stratégie nucléaire aux armes chimiques et bactériologiques, en passant par les « guerres serviles » (pays pauvres contre pays industrialisés ; lutte pour les ...

(148 more words)

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Recherche, sciences, techniques - Ressources naturelles, énergie, environnement

Long-Term Policy Issues and Challenges for Agro-Food (in : The Future of Food : Long-Term Prospects for the Agro-Food Sector)

L'article esquisse l'évolution de l'industrie agro-alimentaire et illustre la nécessité de réorienter la politique agricole en l'éloignant des politiques traditionnelles basées sur les prix pour établir un cadre réglementaire plus large. Le rôle de la politique sera étendu au-delà de la protection et de l'orientation des fermiers pour faciliter le développement du secteur agro-alimentaire resitué dans le contexte économique général. Il faut accorder davantage d'attention à l'impact d'une réforme de la politique ...

(206 more words)

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Économie, emploi - Recherche, sciences, techniques

Innovation et croissance

Les faibles marges de manœuvre laissées à la politique conjoncturelle du fait de l'appartenance à l'Union européenne et monétaire amènent à s'interroger sur les autres instruments dont disposent les gouvernements pour infléchir la croissance et l'efficacité du système productif. Robert Boyer et Michel Didier nous invitent à une réflexion sur les moyens susceptibles d'influencer les entreprises et les amener à une démarche plus novatrice. Dans la compétition mondiale, l'innovation est la condition de la ...

(203 more words)

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Recherche, sciences, techniques

Au banquet de la cognition. Esprit-matière, es-tu là ?

L'auteur, philosophe, biologiste et ancien directeur de l'INRA propose un digest (sic) des tentatives de l'Occident, depuis trois millénaires, de trouver une explication satisfaisante des relations entre l'esprit et la matière. Il invite les chercheurs et penseurs contemporains à participer au « banquet de la cognition » - clin d'?il à Platon -, au lieu de s'enfermer dans la tour d'ivoire de leurs disciplines respectives. Car la pratique de l'approche interdisciplinaire se développe, mais trop lentement ...

(531 more words)

Revue

Entreprises, travail - Géopolitique - Recherche, sciences, techniques

Les politiques d’innovation

Policies for Innovation
We have long believed that if scientific progress procedes technological progress, the former must be the engine of economic growth and development.
Pierre Bonnaure repudiates this belief. He recalls that innovation, especially the performance of organizations, depends not only on their scientific and technological capacities but even more on human and organizational skills-the synergy of human, technical and organizational factors acting together.
He illustrates his thesis by citing the spectacular recovery of American industry and of certain European enterprises. From them he extracts some useful lessons for promoting innovation in Europe.

Revue

Économie, emploi - Recherche, sciences, techniques

L’émergence technologique de l’Asie orientale

The Technological Emergence of East Asia
Many important innovations originated in East Asia, especially China, but were not effectively exploited there. Today this reputation is being rapidly put to rest as a powerful dynamic of development emerges in the region. It combines an aggressive process of acquiring scientific discoveries with one of exploiting technological innovations effectively for commercial gain.
The authors of this paper explore the steps taken by East Asia to establish itself as a pillar of techno-economic development-noting that they exacted a high price in social, cultural, institutional and political transformation.
They show also how this region has acquired a degree of autonomy vis-à-vis the West and woven strong links of intensified trade and cooperation across the region. These will give it unprecedented power from now on.

Revue

Géopolitique - Recherche, sciences, techniques

Sur la guerre psychologique

Il faut rendre hommage à François Géré pour avoir osé sortir la guerre psychologique de l'opprobre dans lequel elle était tenue en France depuis trente-cinq ans. Cette raison est en soi suffisante, tant il paraît insensé d'écarter du champ de la réflexion stratégique un objet aussi déterminant que celui de l'action psychologique. Ce travail remarquable éclaire tout un pan de notre récente histoire militaire, et il ne peut qu'encourager à entreprendre de nouvelles recherches et à ...

(55 more words)

Revue

Géopolitique - Institutions - Recherche, sciences, techniques - Société, modes de vie

L’Europe en quête de sens

Europe in Search of Sense. For an Alternative European Communication Policy
The ideal of a united Europe suffers from a lack of public acceptance which is due not so much to a shortfall of information as to the absence of public debate around a concerted plan.
Éric Dacheux begins by showing that the communications policy of the European Union aims at the same time to inform citizens and also to seduce them by the creation of images and symbols. He finds that the means employed to these ends are ineffective: In the first place, heavily promoted projects such as "Objective 92" have not produced the promised effects. Secondly, the diffusion of information about Europe is not sufficient to create a European conscience. And finally, the communications policy has always been constrained by day-to-day requirements for building Europe, as dictated by the flow of events. In brief, it has emphasized the duty of adapting more than the desire to live together.
É. Dacheux believes that Europe is lacking the conceptual identity which is needed to inspire the shared vision of a sustainable future. Communications policy of the Commission has been so dominated by the need to sell this or that measure that it is detrimental to the creation of a sense of real citizenship, which is the only thing that could confer a soul on this institutional edifice. In short, the marketing of Europe not only fails to convince, it bores. Consequently, the idea of Europe fails to inspire collective mobilization around a plan which carries direction and hope.

Revue

Recherche, sciences, techniques - Société, modes de vie

Les progrès de la génétique

The Progress of Genetics Risks and Opportunities, Fears and Hopes
People have always been very concerned about the future - the source of hopes and of fears at the same time. But this disquiet is without doubt accentuated to the extent that:
- changes accelerate and the sense of continuity is replaced by the anticipation of ruptures which make several futures possible;
- losing the faith formerly accorded to God, to benevolent nature or simply to progress, we have become aware that the future depends on the actions of people on whom the progress of science and technology have conferred the increasing power to make things worse as well as better.
The progress of genetics, because it confers a growing power to manipulate species - including our own - gives rise to more unprecedented worries and hopes than any other form of scientific and technical progress.
The distinguished geneticist Axel Kahn summarizes hopes and fears at the end of the 20th century, including their not always logical relationship to real threats and opportunities. Then, addressing genetics, he shows the progress achieved and foreseeable, the potential benefits and disbenefits. In so doing he underlines the gulf that lies between knowledge and power, and especially the responsibility of people in the use they will make of this power.

Revue

Entreprises, travail - Géopolitique - Recherche, sciences, techniques

Le poids de l’Europe dans le système français de recherche

Le projet de Ve Programme-cadre de recherche et de développement de l'Union européenne pour la période 1998-2002, adopté en avril par la Commission européenne (voir futuribles n° 220, mai 1997), sera soumis à l'approbation du Conseil et du Parlement européen au premier semestre 1998. Se posera alors la question du budget affecté à ce programme et de son utilité. Regina Gusmão, tout en soulignant les difficultés d'une telle évaluation, montre que si la part des financements communautaires ...

(99 more words)

Revue

Économie, emploi - Recherche, sciences, techniques

Le marché mondial des drogues

Prenant appui sur les travaux de l'Observatoire géopolitique des drogues, Alain Labrousse brosse ici un panorama des tendances les plus marquantes du marché mondial des drogues illicites. Il montre d'abord que la production des principales drogues augmente, année après année, du fait de l'extension et de la diversification des surfaces cultivées, imputables notamment aux politiques d'ajustement structurel et, plus généralement, à la nécessité pour nombre de pays de s'engager dans des activités à plus forte ...

(105 more words)

Forum

Recherche, sciences, techniques - Société, modes de vie

Les Français et la micro-informatique

Une même enquête, réalisée par l'Institut GfK pour le magazine Science & Vie Micro (SVM) sur les Français et la micro-informatique fait l'objet ici de deux lectures sensiblement différentes : l'une soulignant le retard français et l'autre ses progrès. Certes les propos ne sont pas contradictoires, mais il est toujours intéressant de voir combien un même objet, aux yeux de différents observateurs, est perçu différemment.

Revue

Recherche, sciences, techniques - Société, modes de vie

Le clonage humain : où est la limite ?

Cloning Humans: Where is the Limit ?
Looking at yesterday's story of the atom and today's of the gene, it is clear - writes Jean-Jacques Salomon - that some regulations are required which cannot be left in the hands of scientists alone.
In the first place, although their vocation is to work exclusively at the production of new knowledge, the unfortunately tight link between laboratory and factory means that they are moved by the "existential pleasures of engineering" and encouraged in this direction by the politics and economics of the marketplace.
Next, because the calling of scientists is to be at the forefront without getting mixed up in theology, metaphysics, morals, or politics, it is not for them to control the use of knowledge if it is transformed into technology.
Finally, in spite of the implication of ethics committees to the contrary, scientists have nothing to say on the subject of directions and values: they are not in a position to bend the pursuit of knowledge to the fantasies of society rather than to their own.
In brief, science appears to have no limit. Unfortunately, it engenders technological developments, notably in matters of genetic engineering, which are not embraced by the ethics of former times. The dramatic dimensions of this ethical dilemma are underscored by the author.

Forum

Entreprises, travail - Géopolitique - Recherche, sciences, techniques

La politique européenne de R&D

European R&D Policy towards the Fifth Framework Program of Research and Development of the European Union
On April 9, 1997 the European Commission on the proposal of Edith Cresson adopted its draft Fifth European Research Framework. Program which according to the Commission is to represent a real break in relation to the four preceding programs. A break in the approach will occur, which from now on consists of concentrating the research effort on only six themes which are both close to citizens' aspirations and the requirement of business competitiveness: renewable resources and ecosystem, user friendly information society, competitive and sustainable growth, international cooperation, innovation and participation by SMEs, and human potential. A break also in operations, which will be distinguished by a concern for coordination among the various activities and more management flexibility, is impending. Knowing moreover that the largest part of the Fifth Framework Program, which covers the period 1998-2002, will be carried out in the context of new budget guidelines required from 1999 to succeed the present budget framework, the Commission has not formally proposed a financial envelop at this stage. It considers nonetheless that the relative weight of the Fifth Framework Program in terms of the percentage of GNP of European Union should reach at least the same level reached by the Fourth Framework Program on average between 1995 and 1998 and that the research effort should tend towards that undertaken by the major competitors of the Union.
We publish here:
- a brief description of the direction of this program as adopted by the Commission, a program, we emphasize, which has yet to be approved by the Council and European Parliament in the first quarter of 1998 and whose budget has not been set;
- the comments of Pierre Bonnaure, former Director of Research and Programs at the European Commission;
- the point of view expressed by Francis Mer, Chairman of Usinor Sacilor, President of the National Association (France) for Technical Research at a Colloquium organised by this Association about the Fifth Framework Program at Paris on April 21 and 22, 1997.

Revue

Entreprises, travail - Recherche, sciences, techniques

La politique américaine de Science et Technologie

American Science and Technology Policy
Ugur Muldur's article reports on the evolution of American science and technology policy from the beginning of the nineteen eighties until today (from Reagan to Clinton) and of the medium and long term directions which are emerging. He bases his study both on the reality and the rhetoric, in particular the priorities stated by the White House, by showing how great the delay can be moving from words to deeds - when moreover they are not contradictory.
Thus dealing at first with the extent of the public R&D effort, the author shows how much under the theoritically liberal presidency of Reagan federal expenditures on R&D grew mainly to the benefit of the military-industrial complex. Then how much Presidents Bush and Clinton, despite one belonging to the Republican party and the other to the Democratic party, each strained to reduce the same federal expenditures while redirecting them towards more economic and social purposes.
U. Muldur, focusing on in the content of R&D policy, distinguishes three stages in the evolution of the aims of public policy, the first dominated by defence/ science, the second by the couple industry /technology, the third by the marriage society/innovation. He thus seeks to account for the evolution of the priorities assigned to R&D by the successive presidents of the United States an to underline how much Clinton himself attached to research with a social purpose as well as to research supporting American leadership in high technology.
The author makes clear that going from words to deeds requires a period of adaptation so that American R&D policy is only at the second stage. Nonetheless an evolution is emerging which in the medium and long term could be marked by important changes whose directions he describes.

Revue

Recherche, sciences, techniques - Ressources naturelles, énergie, environnement

Les plantes du futur. Les organismes génétiquement modifiés

The Plants of the Future. Genetically Modified Organisms (GMO)
Man has never ceased to manipulate nature, but with the discovery of DNA (1953), the birth of genetic engineering (1963) and its development, he acquired the unprecedented power of modifying living organisms.
Dominique Bodin-Rodier here outlines the scientific advances and the applications actual and potential of the genetic engineering of plants. She describes cloning and transgenetic techniques and reports on the development of transgenetic plants whose botanical properties are fundamentally modified and which subsequently allow for the production of rare therapeutic molecules.
The author emphasizes that this technological progress carries with it great hopes (agricultural production, food, health) but as well fears related to the uncertainty which exists over their effects. Finally she shows the considerable economic and financial stakes which are linked to these developments but also the ethical questions which they raise to which the United States would appear to be less sensitive than the Europeans.

Revue

Entreprises, travail - Géopolitique - Recherche, sciences, techniques

Un New Deal pour la recherche et la technologie

A New Deal fo Research and Technology
After having recalled how greatly research and development efforts were concentrated in the triad with nonetheless remarkable spurt in the NICs, Pierre Papon paints a panorama of the new economic, social, political and scientific context in which research is carried out.
The author shows in particular that the economic constraints (beginning with the requirement for short-term profitability) and social constraints (in particular society's demands for "reassurance") are scarcely favourable to the indispensable long term investment which research requires. He particularly denounces the flaws of a state more "firefighter" than strategist whose priorities are more dictated by immediate problems and the need to respond to societal demand than by clearly defined long term objectives.
Pierre Papon considers that there is a "research crisis" resulting from misunderstandings among the scientific community, public authorities and society. In particular the latter two expect from research immediate solutions to current problems when the research effort can only be productive in the long term. In the end, he argues for a true research policy based on forward thinking and attacks the dangers of an excessively utilitarian and short-sighted approach by the state and society.

Forum

Économie, emploi - Entreprises, travail - Géopolitique - Recherche, sciences, techniques

« L’affaire » Thomson

The Thomson Affair
The plan to privatize the Thomson firm and the handover of Thomson Multimedia to the Korean Daewoo has caused an ink-flow into France during the autumn of 1996. We are publishing two points of view about this case: one by Michel Drancourt who sees in it a striking illustration of French capitalism, the other by André-Yves Portnoff who reacts against the abandonment of a high potential activity out of a purely accounting "Colbertist " point of view.
These two points of view, which are more complementary than opposed, are very instructive about the weaknesses of French society, or rather of its elite, which persists in imposing outdated rules- of-the-game on firms.

Bibliography

Recherche, sciences, techniques - Société, modes de vie

Le Consommateur entrepreneur

Robert Rochefort poursuit ses réflexions entamées dans La société des consommateurs (Paris : Odile Jacob, 1995) en s'appuyant sur les études, recherches et enquêtes du CREDOC qu'il dirige. Tous ces travaux montrent que les désirs des consommateurs correspondent à une demande croissante d'autonomie et de responsabilité. Le "consommateur entrepreneur" se caractérise par l'interpénétration croissante de sa vie privée et de son engagement professionnel et par l'utilisation de plus en plus courante à des fins privées d ...

(219 more words)

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Recherche, sciences, techniques

Beyond Calculation. The Next Fifty Years of Computing

Cet ouvrage collectif a été rédigé à l'occasion du cinquantenaire de l'association américaine pour le calcul (ACM), qui a vu le jour en 1947 en même temps que le transistor. Les éditeurs ont demandé à vingt-quatre célébrités du secteur de mesurer le chemin parcouru en un demi-siècle et d'imaginer ce que nous réservent les cinquante années à venir, à l'horizon 2047. S'appuyant sur la célèbre loi de Moore, les uns prédisent que les microprocesseurs atteindront ...

(241 more words)

Bibliography

Population - Recherche, sciences, techniques

Reversing Human Aging

Dans cet ouvrage, Michael Fossel, qui est médecin, fait le point sur les changements dans le domaine du vieillissement humain. Il estime que les avancées de la biotechnologie laissent augurer une réelle maîtrise du processus de la vieillesse dans les années à venir. Il envisage une prolongation de l'espérance de vie pouvant atteindre plusieurs siècles, ce grâce aux nouvelles techniques médicales. La médecine soigne et prolonge la vie des cellules vivantes. L'homme restera mortel, mais il pourra repousser ...

(93 more words)

Bibliography

Géopolitique - Recherche, sciences, techniques

The European Union and Space : Fostering Applications, Markets and Industrial Competitiveness

Ce petit ouvrage de la Commission européenne part du principe que les activités spatiales ne concernent pas que les scientifiques, mais comportent également des dimensions stratégiques et économiques, qui affectent d'ores et déjà notre vie quotidienne et qui prendront encore plus d'importance dans les années à venir. C'est pourquoi la Commission a mis en place, il y a dix ans, une structure propre, consacrée au domaine spatial, et complémentaire de l'activité de l'Agence Spatiale européenne ...

(182 more words)

Bibliography

Population - Recherche, sciences, techniques

La Révolution de la longévité

C'est un médecin, le professeur Françoise Forette, qui s'attache ici à une analyse du phénomène du vieillissement démographique : elle part du constat que la France comptera, en 2015, 6 millions de personnes âgées de 75 ans ou plus, sur une population totale de 62 millions d'habitants. C'est une révolution silencieuse qui n'est pas limitée à la France : tous les pays d'Occident connaissent une révolution démographique identique. Cependant, les hommes politiques ont tendance à l ...

(192 more words)

Chapitre recherche, sciences...

Ce chapitre est extrait du Rapport Vigie 2016 de Futuribles International, qui propose un panorama structuré des connaissances et des incertitudes des experts que l'association a mobilisés pour explorer les évolutions des 15 à 35 prochaines années sur 11 thématiques.