The well-known Solow paradox is named after the winner of the Nobel Prize for economics, who pointed out that "you see computers everywhere except in statistics on productivity".
As is shown by the article elsewhere in this issue of the impact of IT on growth, the contribution of information technology on productivity is still hard to measure. They do, however, make an important contribution to the improvement of products, as Pierre Bonnaure argues, taking the example of automobiles.
He sets out to show how car manufacturers have introduced more and more IT into their products and highlights the resulting advantages, for example in terms of safety and comfort.

L'IPTS (Institute for Prospective Technological Studies) a consacré l'intégralité de son dernier numéro de l'année 2000 à la place du débat éthique dans le monde de la recherche. Après une introduction et deux premiers articles précisant la définition ici retenue de l'éthique et les questions de cette nature posées par l'évaluation de la recherche et de la science, « antidote[s] à l'impunité », Susan Cozzens présente le concept de gestion par les résultats. Depuis 10 ...

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This article examines the most recent assessments of the spread of information technology (IT) in the French economy and their contribution to growth; these evaluations are accompanied by some comparisons with the United States.
The authors start by looking at the impact of IT on the French economy, focusing first on the share of IT output in total production, and then on how they have spread throughout the whole economy. On this second point, they point out the difficulties of conducting an accurate evaluation in the absence of appropriate indicators and comparable data covering a long period. Nevertheless, they conclude that the IT have shown a strong upward trend in France, albeit to a lesser extent than in the United States.
In the second part of the article, the authors investigate the contribution of the IT (roughly defined as computer and telecommunications hardware and software) to growth. Here, too, they emphasize the problems of making an evaluation, but conclude that the contribution to the growth of GDP in France of all the IT taken together was probably on average around 0.3% per annum between 1967 and 1999. They note that this contribution, though far from negligible, was well below the comparable figure for the United States.

This is a time of "new growth", thanks to the IT (information technology) and the widespread confidence, indeed conviction, that we are at the beginning of a new Kondratiev upturn, launched into a new era of stable prosperity.
Michel Godet, sceptical as always of generally accepted ideas, warns us to be cautious. True, Europe is currently enjoying a new growth spurt, which furthermore has created new jobs. But this phenomenon, here in Europe as in the United States, has little to do with the IT.
The impact of the IT obviously should not be overlooked, since they have undoubtedly helped in the development of a new economy, in particular by stimulating competition and therefore lower prices. Yet the new growth should not be overestimated on the basis of the Nasdac and the stock market bubble which will ultimately burst.
In any case, Godet argues, convinced that human beings are the only real source of wealth and that the future depends on what they want, the growth cycle theories (especially that of Kondratiev) are illusory. The new growth cannot continue without generating adverse side-effects and consequently in Europe, with its ageing population, weak and fluctuating demand.

Gérard Blanc discusses at some length the most recent book by the great American expert on artificial intelligence, Ray Kurzweil, in which he argues that as computers become increasingly endowed with intelligence and even consciousness, they will come into direct competition with human beings.
Ray Kurzweil has little doubt that from now until 2009, 2019, 2029 and 2099, computers will continue to make giant strides and will allow human beings, if not to become immortal, at least to "remake" themselves.
The issue discussed here is therefore whether machine intelligence is superior to or different from human intelligence, if not, indeed, human consciousness, and, following from that, what role and place will be left for the human race.

There are frequent criticisms of the fact that in France, scientific achievements are perfectly satisfactory but they have little economic impact, and that the country is remarkable for its inability to translate ideas into actions. Such, for example, was the diagnosis of Henri Guillaume in his report on technology and innovation (La Technologie et l'innovation), which came out in 1998, though the handicap had already been pointed out by OECD in 1978 and again in 1986 in its report on innovation policy in France (Paris: OECD, 384 pp.).
However, Pascal Byé and Robert Magnaval (who died in August 1999) argue here that the relationship between research and development is far more complex than people usually realise, that the causal links cannot be considered as direct and unambiguous, and that in any case scientific research operates within a different time-frame to industrial development, and the conditions are not so simple.
In particular, they show that factors related to the dynamics of organisations and markets affect the application and spread of the results of public research, and even more for private research. And, rather than endlessly criticising the paradox, it would probably be better to treat the process of innovation differently, according to its own logic.

In the Pays de la Loire region, while the shipyards of Saint-Nazaire are attracting large numbers of applicants for jobs, building firms are having major problems in finding the skilled workers that they require.
Gabriel David, who is the regional representative for training for the Confederation of Small Businesses and Craftsmen in the Building Trade in the Pays de la Loire (CAPEB), discusses the vacancy situation and the methods necessary in order to fill the available vacancies.
He describes the energetic efforts required to remedy the skills shortages, especially in trying to achieve a better match between supply and demand, which is difficult not only because of the lack of qualified people, but also because of their expectations and the image of some professions.

The remarkable upturn in the shipyards of Saint-Nazaire, which a few years ago went through a major crisis leading to massive lay-offs, is now generating a demand for labour that is hard to satisfy while keeping control of wage costs so as not to compromise the hard-won return to competitiveness.
Arnaud du Crest has been to interview for Futuribles Claire Guihéneuf, who is in charge of monitoring for the local economic development agency for the region of Saint-Nazaire, and Catherine Guilbaudeau, head of the National Employment Agency (ANPE), about the policies adopted by the shipyards both for their own recruitment needs and to make use of a network of appropriate subcontractors and suppliers.
What emerges is the key role of the firm and its image, as well as its capacity to undertake a major training programme, with the help of the national and regional authorities. Success does, however, have its downside: the suppliers have much greater difficulties than the shipyards in finding skilled workers, and there is also a shortage of adequate accommodation for those newly hired. Housing therefore will need to be built, but the construction industry is having problems in keeping up with the demand (see the account by Gabriel David elsewhere in this issue).

L'Institut de prospective technologique (IPTS) nous propose un numéro spécialement consacré aux interactions entre science et gouvernement, au travers d'articles rédigés par des acteurs appartenant tant au milieu scientifique qu'au secteur industriel ou au lobbying. Outre les aspects théoriques des relations science-gouvernement (« gouverner la recherche », « l'engagement des parties » concernées, « améliorer le dialogue » entre ces deux sphères, « contributions scientifiques et frontières nationales »...), on trouvera dans ce numéro plusieurs études de cas : l'approche canadienne de l'utilisation ...

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The new economy, e-commerce: the two terms are widely used today as if they were synonyms, as if growth was generated only by the new technologies. The question raised by Michel Drancourt - can computers be a source of productivity and growth? - may therefore appear surprising. However, as he shows very clearly, the answer is not that straightforward because, while the increases in productivity are obvious, they are the result of a more complex process of reshaping firms and the system of production, of a mixture of technological innovation and social and organizational changes.
In fact, one of the major challenges facing us today relates to our ability to innovate in these two areas simultaneously, even though the pace of technical progress is clearly much faster than that of social change.

Today, the wealth of nations and their political influence depend on their human capital. Yet in Russia, the health of the workforce has seen a serious and lasting decline which is extremely worrying, according to Nicholas Eberstadt.
He bases his argument on an analysis of the state of health of the Russian population, in particular the mortality rates. He shows that the rate, for all ages and both sexes, has worsened considerably in recent years, mainly as a result of cardiovascular disease and "accidents and other forms of violent death", frequently caused by alcohol abuse.
N. Eberstadt recognizes that mortality rates have risen in other countries too at certain times (e.g. Spain, west Germany, Japan), but these were temporary peaks, usually connected with wars, and were immediately followed by major improvements.
In Russia, however, the situation is quite different: we are seeing a long-term trend that is not related to any particular accidental occurrence, and Eberstadt therefore doubts whether it can be rapidly reversed. On the contrary, he foresees this leading to an economic and political decline in the medium and long term in the Russian Federation.

Les sociologues qui se sont intéressés à la modernisation, comme Karl Marx et Daniel Bell, ont posé l'hypothèse que le développement économique entraînait de profonds changements culturels. Mais d'autres, de Max Weber à Samuel Huntington, ont prétendu à l'inverse que c'étaient les systèmes de valeurs qui avaient une influence fondamentale sur la société. Ronald Inglehart et Wayne E. Baker, utilisant les résultats des trois enquêtes successives sur les valeurs mondiales, qu'ils ont menées dans 65 ...

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La société de l'information est caractérisée par un mélange d'innovations technologiques, de changements dans l'organisation des entreprises et de mutations structurelles de l'économie. L'avenir du travail se décrit souvent avec des termes comme la flexibilité, l'employabilité, la communication, la compétence, la société de la connaissance, le travail à distance. Les développements technologiques récents incitent au changement, mais ne déterminent pas les options futures. Dans un tel contexte, comment concilier l'amélioration de la qualité ...

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Les auteurs de ce livre fort enrichissant - des universitaires - s'attachent à caractériser le rôle des médias (eux-mêmes « dévoreurs de temps » au quotidien) dans nos représentations et nos pratiques du temps. Les interactions étroites entre médias, temporalités et démocratie ne sont certes pas inédites, encore fallait-il qu'existe une publication synthétique qui nous sorte à ce sujet de la seule approximation du sens commun. Et les bouleversements actuels des moyens de communication exigeaient en effet qu'on se penche avec ...

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Lorsqu'on forme un tas de grains de riz en laissant les grains tomber un à un, il arrive, lorsque la pente des flancs dépasse une valeur critique, que l'adjonction d'un seul grain déclenche une avalanche qui ramène la pente en dessous de cette valeur critique. C'est le phénomène de criticité auto-organisée (self-organised criticality ou SOC) décrit en 1987 par P. Bak, C. Tang et K. Wiesenfeld. Une caractéristique essentielle de ce phénomène, sa signature en quelque ...

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L'édition 2000 des Perspectives des technologies de l'information (TI) de l'OCDE fait le point sur la croissance rapide de l'offre et de la demande de biens et services liés aux technologies de l'information tout en analysant leur rôle dans l'essor de l'économie de l'Internet et en repérant les nouvelles utilisations qui en sont faites. Cette publication montre l'étendue et la diversité d'une technologie qui est à l'origine d'une ...

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Tout en étant essentiellement fondé sur l'expérience acquise par l'auteur à travers les analyses monographiques de nombre d'entreprises, ce livre, qui a obtenu en janvier 2001 le prix du livre « ressources humaines », décerné par Sciences Po Paris, le journal Le Monde et le syndicat des conseils en recrutement, concerne plus largement l'innovation dans les organisations et dans la société en général. De fait, au delà de quelques idées forces, il est difficile de résumer le message ...

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Cet ouvrage dirigé par Pierre Bréchon et Jean-Paul Willaime reprend les actes d'un colloque organisé en février 1998 par l'Association française de sciences sociales des religions (AFSSR). Ses différents contributeurs se proposent d'analyser la question épineuse du rapport entre médias et religions. Il semble en effet exister des points de rencontre qui permettent à ces deux sphères distinctes d'interagir, ou tout au moins de s'éclairer l'une l'autre. La réflexion est menée autour de ...

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Cet ouvrage est le fruit du travail d'une équipe d'ingénieurs de l'ADIT, spécialisés dans l'automobile, les transports, les matériaux, l'énergie, l'environnement, l'électronique et les nouvelles technologies, à laquelle se sont joints des experts internationaux. La recherche des données et le travail d'analyse se sont appuyés sur de nombreuses sources de littérature blanche et grise, les banques de données spécialisées, Internet et le réseau international de correspondants de l'ADIT. L'étude aborde ...

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Pour les auteurs du rapport, le caractère générique des technologies de l'information et de la communication, et la réorganisation des modes de production qu'elles engendrent portent clairement en germe une nouvelle révolution industrielle. Le rapport dissipe d'abord le paradoxe de Solow, déclarant en 1987 que l'on voyait les ordinateurs partout, sauf dans les statistiques. On constate maintenant qu'aux États-Unis la montée en puissance des technologies de l'information et de la communication (TIC) va de ...

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Curieux livre ! L'auteur est en quête du futur à travers le passé avec, dès le départ, une idée préconçue : notre vie culturelle et matérielle va dans les 20 ans à venir changer autant qu'elle a changé pendant les 10 000 ans déjà écoulés. La démonstration n'est pas très probante, mais ce petit ouvrage présente tout de même un réel intérêt : en 75 pages il rappelle les grandes données de l'évolution en remontant à 80 000 générations ...

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Ces deux cahiers, publiés sous la direction de Pierre Tabatoni - de l'Académie des sciences morales et politiques - présentent les réflexions du groupe d'études « Société d'information et vie privée » constitué en 1999. Celui-ci s'était assigné la tâche d'appréhender les problèmes spécifiques que la révolution des systèmes d'information et de communication - qui de plus en plus affecte notre organisation sociale en son entier, mais aussi, à terme, nos conceptions et pratiques culturelles - pose au respect de ...

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