Recherche, sciences, techniques

Cette page regroupe l'ensemble des publications de Futuribles sur cette thématique (Vigie, revue, bibliographie, études, etc.)

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Économie, emploi - Recherche, sciences, techniques

De la démocratie budgétaire en Amérique. L’information économique aux États-Unis : quels enseignements pour la France ?

À la suite de la ridicule affaire de la « cagnotte » budgétaire française de l'an 2000, le Sénat a lancé une mission sur le thème de « la démocratie budgétaire en Amérique » pour procéder à des comparaisons avec le système français. Tout ce qui est américain n'est pas transposable. Mais le rapport du Sénat publié en 2001 insiste tout de même sur la supériorité « démocratique » d'un système fondé sur le pluralisme, l'importance des contre-expertises indépendantes, notamment pour l ...

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Géopolitique - Recherche, sciences, techniques

Networks and Netwars : The Future of Terror, Crime and Militancy

Les tragiques événements du 11 septembre 2001 ont brutalement montré que les guerres du futur n'auront pas lieu entre des États et que leurs acteurs ne seront pas les forces armées traditionnelles, mais des groupes terroristes comme Al Qaida ou des cartels de drogue comme ceux qui ravagent la Colombie et le Mexique. Leur pendant « positif » peut se trouver dans les activistes non violents de la société civile qui se battent pour les droits de l'homme ou l ...

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Économie, emploi - Recherche, sciences, techniques

Macroéconomie et santé : investir dans la santé pour le développement économique

Améliorer l'état de santé et l'espérance de vie des pauvres est une fin en soi, et c'est en principe un des buts du développement économique. Mais l'amélioration de la santé est aussi une condition essentielle de ce même développement. En effet, le sida, le paludisme, la tuberculose (entre autres) entravent encore la croissance de nombreux pays, particulièrement en Afrique. Selon les auteurs de ce rapport, un investissement de 66 milliards de dollars US supplémentaires par an ...

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Recherche, sciences, techniques

Prospective et apprentissage organisationnel

Les dimensions cognitives de la prospective sont appréhendées dans la littérature de manière souvent implicite et partielle. La plupart des auteurs de la discipline ont, en effet, bien conscience que la prospective vise à modéliser des connaissances, qu'elle repose sur des projections mentales concernant les futurs possibles ou bien que ce type de démarche est susceptible d'influencer les représentations du monde. Mais l'analyse de l'impact cognitif de la prospective en tant qu'objet de recherche en ...

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Recherche, sciences, techniques

Rapport sur la santé dans le monde 2001. La santé mentale : nouvelle conception, nouveaux espoirs

Dans le monde, quelque 450 millions de personnes souffrent d'une maladie mentale ou d'un trouble du comportement selon l'OMS, mais seule une petite minorité reçoit des soins. Le vieillissement des populations, l'aggravation des problèmes sociaux et les troubles civils rendent probables de nouvelles augmentations du nombre des malades. Ce rapport présente tout d'abord au lecteur une nouvelle conception de la santé mentale et explique pourquoi celle-ci est aussi importante que la santé physique pour le ...

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Revue

Recherche, sciences, techniques - Territoires, réseaux

L’informatique et l’automobile

The well-known Solow paradox is named after the winner of the Nobel Prize for economics, who pointed out that "you see computers everywhere except in statistics on productivity".
As is shown by the article elsewhere in this issue of the impact of IT on growth, the contribution of information technology on productivity is still hard to measure. They do, however, make an important contribution to the improvement of products, as Pierre Bonnaure argues, taking the example of automobiles.
He sets out to show how car manufacturers have introduced more and more IT into their products and highlights the resulting advantages, for example in terms of safety and comfort.

Bibliography

Entreprises, travail - Recherche, sciences, techniques

« L’éthique dans la recherche et l’évaluation de la RDT (recherche et développement technologique) »

L'IPTS (Institute for Prospective Technological Studies) a consacré l'intégralité de son dernier numéro de l'année 2000 à la place du débat éthique dans le monde de la recherche. Après une introduction et deux premiers articles précisant la définition ici retenue de l'éthique et les questions de cette nature posées par l'évaluation de la recherche et de la science, « antidote[s] à l'impunité », Susan Cozzens présente le concept de gestion par les résultats. Depuis 10 ...

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Revue

Économie, emploi - Recherche, sciences, techniques

L’impact des TIC sur la croissance. Les technologies de l’information et de la communication en France : diffusion et contribution à la croissance économique

This article examines the most recent assessments of the spread of information technology (IT) in the French economy and their contribution to growth; these evaluations are accompanied by some comparisons with the United States.
The authors start by looking at the impact of IT on the French economy, focusing first on the share of IT output in total production, and then on how they have spread throughout the whole economy. On this second point, they point out the difficulties of conducting an accurate evaluation in the absence of appropriate indicators and comparable data covering a long period. Nevertheless, they conclude that the IT have shown a strong upward trend in France, albeit to a lesser extent than in the United States.
In the second part of the article, the authors investigate the contribution of the IT (roughly defined as computer and telecommunications hardware and software) to growth. Here, too, they emphasize the problems of making an evaluation, but conclude that the contribution to the growth of GDP in France of all the IT taken together was probably on average around 0.3% per annum between 1967 and 1999. They note that this contribution, though far from negligible, was well below the comparable figure for the United States.

Forum

Économie, emploi - Recherche, sciences, techniques

Nouvelle croissance ou vieilles lunes ?

This is a time of "new growth", thanks to the IT (information technology) and the widespread confidence, indeed conviction, that we are at the beginning of a new Kondratiev upturn, launched into a new era of stable prosperity.
Michel Godet, sceptical as always of generally accepted ideas, warns us to be cautious. True, Europe is currently enjoying a new growth spurt, which furthermore has created new jobs. But this phenomenon, here in Europe as in the United States, has little to do with the IT.
The impact of the IT obviously should not be overlooked, since they have undoubtedly helped in the development of a new economy, in particular by stimulating competition and therefore lower prices. Yet the new growth should not be overestimated on the basis of the Nasdac and the stock market bubble which will ultimately burst.
In any case, Godet argues, convinced that human beings are the only real source of wealth and that the future depends on what they want, the growth cycle theories (especially that of Kondratiev) are illusory. The new growth cannot continue without generating adverse side-effects and consequently in Europe, with its ageing population, weak and fluctuating demand.

Revue

Recherche, sciences, techniques

Des ordinateurs intelligents… et conscients. À propos du livre de Ray Kurzweil, « The Age of Spiritual Machines. When Computers Exceed Human Intelligence »

Gérard Blanc discusses at some length the most recent book by the great American expert on artificial intelligence, Ray Kurzweil, in which he argues that as computers become increasingly endowed with intelligence and even consciousness, they will come into direct competition with human beings.
Ray Kurzweil has little doubt that from now until 2009, 2019, 2029 and 2099, computers will continue to make giant strides and will allow human beings, if not to become immortal, at least to "remake" themselves.
The issue discussed here is therefore whether machine intelligence is superior to or different from human intelligence, if not, indeed, human consciousness, and, following from that, what role and place will be left for the human race.

Revue

Entreprises, travail - Recherche, sciences, techniques

Entre recherche et développement… À propos du rapport Guillaume sur la nature du « paradoxe « entre production scientifique et performances économiques

There are frequent criticisms of the fact that in France, scientific achievements are perfectly satisfactory but they have little economic impact, and that the country is remarkable for its inability to translate ideas into actions. Such, for example, was the diagnosis of Henri Guillaume in his report on technology and innovation (La Technologie et l'innovation), which came out in 1998, though the handicap had already been pointed out by OECD in 1978 and again in 1986 in its report on innovation policy in France (Paris: OECD, 384 pp.).
However, Pascal Byé and Robert Magnaval (who died in August 1999) argue here that the relationship between research and development is far more complex than people usually realise, that the causal links cannot be considered as direct and unambiguous, and that in any case scientific research operates within a different time-frame to industrial development, and the conditions are not so simple.
In particular, they show that factors related to the dynamics of organisations and markets affect the application and spread of the results of public research, and even more for private research. And, rather than endlessly criticising the paradox, it would probably be better to treat the process of innovation differently, according to its own logic.

Bibliography

Recherche, sciences, techniques

« Science et gouvernement »

L'Institut de prospective technologique (IPTS) nous propose un numéro spécialement consacré aux interactions entre science et gouvernement, au travers d'articles rédigés par des acteurs appartenant tant au milieu scientifique qu'au secteur industriel ou au lobbying. Outre les aspects théoriques des relations science-gouvernement (« gouverner la recherche », « l'engagement des parties » concernées, « améliorer le dialogue » entre ces deux sphères, « contributions scientifiques et frontières nationales »...), on trouvera dans ce numéro plusieurs études de cas : l'approche canadienne de l'utilisation ...

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Forum

Entreprises, travail - Recherche, sciences, techniques

Informatique et productivité

The new economy, e-commerce: the two terms are widely used today as if they were synonyms, as if growth was generated only by the new technologies. The question raised by Michel Drancourt - can computers be a source of productivity and growth? - may therefore appear surprising. However, as he shows very clearly, the answer is not that straightforward because, while the increases in productivity are obvious, they are the result of a more complex process of reshaping firms and the system of production, of a mixture of technological innovation and social and organizational changes.
In fact, one of the major challenges facing us today relates to our ability to innovate in these two areas simultaneously, even though the pace of technical progress is clearly much faster than that of social change.

Revue

Recherche, sciences, techniques

Chantiers navals : le renouveau

The remarkable upturn in the shipyards of Saint-Nazaire, which a few years ago went through a major crisis leading to massive lay-offs, is now generating a demand for labour that is hard to satisfy while keeping control of wage costs so as not to compromise the hard-won return to competitiveness.
Arnaud du Crest has been to interview for Futuribles Claire Guihéneuf, who is in charge of monitoring for the local economic development agency for the region of Saint-Nazaire, and Catherine Guilbaudeau, head of the National Employment Agency (ANPE), about the policies adopted by the shipyards both for their own recruitment needs and to make use of a network of appropriate subcontractors and suppliers.
What emerges is the key role of the firm and its image, as well as its capacity to undertake a major training programme, with the help of the national and regional authorities. Success does, however, have its downside: the suppliers have much greater difficulties than the shipyards in finding skilled workers, and there is also a shortage of adequate accommodation for those newly hired. Housing therefore will need to be built, but the construction industry is having problems in keeping up with the demand (see the account by Gabriel David elsewhere in this issue).

Revue

Recherche, sciences, techniques

Les emplois du bâtiment. Pénurie de main-d’oeuvre dans l’artisanat du bâtiment en Pays de la Loire

In the Pays de la Loire region, while the shipyards of Saint-Nazaire are attracting large numbers of applicants for jobs, building firms are having major problems in finding the skilled workers that they require.
Gabriel David, who is the regional representative for training for the Confederation of Small Businesses and Craftsmen in the Building Trade in the Pays de la Loire (CAPEB), discusses the vacancy situation and the methods necessary in order to fill the available vacancies.
He describes the energetic efforts required to remedy the skills shortages, especially in trying to achieve a better match between supply and demand, which is difficult not only because of the lack of qualified people, but also because of their expectations and the image of some professions.

Revue

Population - Recherche, sciences, techniques

Russie : l’inévitable déclin ?

Today, the wealth of nations and their political influence depend on their human capital. Yet in Russia, the health of the workforce has seen a serious and lasting decline which is extremely worrying, according to Nicholas Eberstadt.
He bases his argument on an analysis of the state of health of the Russian population, in particular the mortality rates. He shows that the rate, for all ages and both sexes, has worsened considerably in recent years, mainly as a result of cardiovascular disease and "accidents and other forms of violent death", frequently caused by alcohol abuse.
N. Eberstadt recognizes that mortality rates have risen in other countries too at certain times (e.g. Spain, west Germany, Japan), but these were temporary peaks, usually connected with wars, and were immediately followed by major improvements.
In Russia, however, the situation is quite different: we are seeing a long-term trend that is not related to any particular accidental occurrence, and Eberstadt therefore doubts whether it can be rapidly reversed. On the contrary, he foresees this leading to an economic and political decline in the medium and long term in the Russian Federation.

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Recherche, sciences, techniques - Société, modes de vie

Modernization, Cultural Change, and the Persistance of Traditional Values

Les sociologues qui se sont intéressés à la modernisation, comme Karl Marx et Daniel Bell, ont posé l'hypothèse que le développement économique entraînait de profonds changements culturels. Mais d'autres, de Max Weber à Samuel Huntington, ont prétendu à l'inverse que c'étaient les systèmes de valeurs qui avaient une influence fondamentale sur la société. Ronald Inglehart et Wayne E. Baker, utilisant les résultats des trois enquêtes successives sur les valeurs mondiales, qu'ils ont menées dans 65 ...

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Économie, emploi - Recherche, sciences, techniques

Le Casse du siècle. Faut-il croire en la nouvelle économie ?

De fait, cet ouvrage de vulgarisation, écrit sur un ton « branché » mais s'appuyant sur la culture économique solide de l'auteur, ne vise pas tant à répondre à la question posée (y croire ou pas ?) qu'à dégager les caractéristiques essentielles de ce qu'il est désormais coutume d'appeler la « nouvelle économie » et à essayer de déterminer la pertinence d'une telle appellation plus ou moins contrôlée. Les diverses facettes de la nouvelle phase de croissance forte tirée ...

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Revue

Entreprises, travail - Recherche, sciences, techniques

Microsoft : le devoir d’innover

Over the last 25 years we have witnessed the amazing rise of Bill Gates and his firm Microsoft, the world leader in software for personal computers, which will prove to be the leading business of the end of the 20th century.
Success, however, has its downside: the company, which has its headquarters in Redmont (USA), is currently being attacked in the American courts under the anti-trust legislation because of its dominant position and may ultimately be obliged to break up. But Bill Gates is not finished yet. Pierre Bonnaure looks here at the different strategic options opened to him, including publishing the basic code for Windows on which he has built his wealth.
According to Pierre Bonnaure, Microsoft could yet win through by giving up its monopoly on software that is becoming out-of-date and by playing a pioneering role in the new generation of network computers.

Bibliography

Recherche, sciences, techniques - Ressources naturelles, énergie, environnement

Ubiquity, the science of history… or why the world is simpler than we think

Lorsqu'on forme un tas de grains de riz en laissant les grains tomber un à un, il arrive, lorsque la pente des flancs dépasse une valeur critique, que l'adjonction d'un seul grain déclenche une avalanche qui ramène la pente en dessous de cette valeur critique. C'est le phénomène de criticité auto-organisée (self-organised criticality ou SOC) décrit en 1987 par P. Bak, C. Tang et K. Wiesenfeld. Une caractéristique essentielle de ce phénomène, sa signature en quelque ...

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Chapitre recherche, sciences...

Ce chapitre est extrait du Rapport Vigie 2016 de Futuribles International, qui propose un panorama structuré des connaissances et des incertitudes des experts que l'association a mobilisés pour explorer les évolutions des 15 à 35 prochaines années sur 11 thématiques.