Recherche, sciences, techniques

Cette page regroupe l'ensemble des publications de Futuribles sur cette thématique (Vigie, revue, bibliographie, études, etc.)

Analyse prospective

Recherche, sciences, techniques

Les conséquences de la bataille des microprocesseurs

La culture des dirigeants et le type de management des hommes peuvent influencer les résultats opérationnels jusquíà remettre en cause une situation d'hégémonie historique comme celle d'Intel. S'étant enfoncé dans une impasse stratégique faute d'avoir écouté ses techniciens, Intel devrait continuer à céder du terrain devant AMD. Les options techniques díIntel ont entraîné une surconsommation énergétique équivalant à plusieurs tranches de centrale nucléaire par an. La progression d'AMD dont les processeurs consomment beaucoup moins d ...

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Revue

Entreprises, travail - Recherche, sciences, techniques - Ressources naturelles, énergie, environnement

Wageningen and the "Food Valley". The Challenge of Clusters of Excellence Combining Research, Training and Business

In 2004-2005, the French government decided to stimulate innovation in France by - among other measures - creating special clusters across the country which would promote synergies among firms, education and training, and research. Just over 60 clusters were chosen from among the applicants, in many diverse fields, ranging from aeronautics to information technologies, via biotechnologies, etc. Several of the clusters were specifically geared to the farming and food industry, such as the Fruit and Vegetables cluster at Avignon.
Michel Dodet, vice-president for international affairs of INRA (the French Institute for Agricultural Research), examines at the food sector, in particular the successful Dutch experience at Wageningen, the Netherlands' Food Valley. He first looks in detail at the origin of the Food Valley and the way it operates, then turns to the Avignon cluster, before highlighting the key factors behind the success of the Food Valley, which might be helpful in France. Finally, he discusses the limits of this experience, in particular the lack of a shared vision of the long term and the risk of emphasizing access merely to existing knowledge at the expense of investment in research (in the long run). Consequently what is needed is a judicious mix in the "ecosystem" of initial participants ready to share their strong points in order to improve their competitiveness along with the political will to intervene so as to organize and develop the resulting cluster.

Revue

Recherche, sciences, techniques

The American Space Shuttle. Analysis of a Strategic Error

It was against the background of the technological rivalry between East and West during the Cold War that the United States launched a programme in the early 1970s to build a space shuttle. In addition to affirming America's technological superiority, the aims of the space shuttle were to put commercial satellites into orbit and, in the longer term, to build and use an orbiting space station (which became in time an international venture).
Several incidents occurred in the course of the Shuttle programme, two of them sadly resulting in the death of the whole crew: Challenger (in 1986) and Columbia (in 2003). André Lebeau looks back on the various strategic errors in the design of the Shuttle and in the launch operations that led to these disasters and to the fact that the programme is now more or less bogged down.
After a discussion of the technical reasons for these setbacks, he highlights the unfortunate interplay of financial constraints and pressures to perform that led to dangerous decisions being taken (linked in part to the growth of real international competition). Lastly, he stresses the way that the running of such a programme encounters technical, economic and political obstacles and delays that make any change of direction both slow and complicated.

Revue

Entreprises, travail - Recherche, sciences, techniques

The Posthuman World. Review of Rémi Sussan, "Les Utopies posthumaines"

The last few decades have been marked by breathtaking technological progress that raised great hopes but also generated certain fears for the future of the human race. Futuribles has regularly provided a forum for debate about such issues, ranging from cloning to technology convergence or transhumanism.
In this article, Geoffrey Delcroix looks at one aspect of the interactions between science and society: the ideas and theories about the posthuman world that have been developed over the last century, based on Rémi Sussan's book, Les Utopies posthumaines. Contre-culture, cyberculture, culture du chaos (Posthuman Utopias. Counter-culture, Cyber-culture, Chaos-culture, Sophia-Antipolis: Omniscience, 2005, 288 pp., website www.omniscience.fr). He offers an overview of the history of posthuman scenarios, from the pioneers of New Age to cyberpunks or chaos-culture via the neurochemical revolution, showing that the human imagination knows few limits when it comes to increasing our chances of immortality.

Note de veille

Recherche, sciences, techniques - Société, modes de vie

Le Web est plébiscité !

L’expression Web 2.0 désigne l’évolution du Web vers des services donnant la possibilité aux utilisateurs de personnaliser leur façon d’utiliser les réseaux numériques, d’agréger des contenus, des applications, de collaborer, de valoriser un très grand nombre de données ou de petites transactions, de prendre la parole en ligne.

Note de veille

Recherche, sciences, techniques - Société, modes de vie

Le PC à 100 dollars nous concerne

Le pari de Nicoholas Negroponte (MediaLab du MIT) et de l’association One Laptop Per Child (http://laptop.org/en/) de fournir un ordinateur portable à bas prix aux enfants des pays émergents au travers des écoles, ne concerne pas que le tiers-monde. Les conséquences sont de quatre ordres.

Note de veille

Recherche, sciences, techniques

Le haut débit sans fil, service public ou prestation commerciale ?

Aux États-Unis, mais aussi en Europe, de nombreuses initiatives tendent à la mise en place de vastes réseaux haut débit sans fil. L’économie de ces nouvelles infrastructures de communication est diverse : service public gratuit, accès payant ou financé par la publicité, les opérateurs et leurs commanditaires développent des modèles variés et ne visent pas tous le même public.

Revue

Entreprises, travail - Recherche, sciences, techniques

Teleworking in Perspective

In recent years the information and communication technologies have flooded Western households (personal computers, cell phones, the Internet, etc.), sometimes helping to blur the boundaries between professional and private life. Against this background, has teleworking (working at a distance, working while travelling or dividing time between home and office) increased in the industrialized countries?
Anne de Beer sets out the regulations governing teleworking in France, in Europe and in the United States, and presents the results of various surveys carried out in these areas that give an idea of how widespread the practice has become. Whereas in the United States 24.6% of those with jobs do some teleworking, this is true of only 13% of those working in the 15 (pre-enlargement) members of the European Union, with wide regional differences (the Netherlands and Scandinavian countries are far ahead of southern Europe). On the basis of these surveys the author shows what the benefits of teleworking are for employers and employees, and which factors are likely to promote or restrict its spread.
Quite apart from its potential economic and organizational advantages for firms, teleworking also relates to some social choices such as quality of life and job satisfaction for workers, as well as to more macroeconomic factors such as employees' productivity and environmental protection (energy savings and reduced traffic pollution).

Revue

Entreprises, travail - Recherche, sciences, techniques

Internet and Business. Review of the Yolin Report

Is the spread of information technologies, above all the Internet, an asset for businesses? If so, do they make the best use of the opportunities these technologies offer? How is the situation likely to change and therefore what new opportunities are likely to present themselves? Do firms in France know how to seize them and do the authorities know how to encourage them?
These are among the questions that Jean-Michel Yolin has tried to answer every year since 1997 in a report to the French Minister of Industry. Here Gérard Blanc shares the main conclusions of the report published at the end of 2005, presenting the current state of technology and the emerging trends, as well as showing that French firms have still not made the most of all the inherent opportunities.

Revue

Recherche, sciences, techniques

Science Policy and Freedom to Conduct Research

As scientific progress becomes ever more rapid, it is essential for those engaged in research to take the time to look critically at the activity itself, its purposes and its potential consequences. However, as Pierre Boistard argues, researchers have less and less time to devote to such issues or perhaps lack the right tools for the job. For this reason, the French National Institute for Agricultural Research (INRA) set up a working group in 1994 on "Sciences in questions", one of whose main aims was to help clarify the current debates about science and research in an accessible and attractive form.
The lectures arranged by the working group were originally intended only for researchers working for INRA, but they were later published as a series under the same title. The success of this series confirmed the need for such reflections on the relationships between researchers, science and society. Pierre Boistard presents here the origins, working methods and aims of the working group, as well as the main debates that it has organized. Lastly, he discusses the value of such reflections for scientific foresight studies.

Note de veille

Recherche, sciences, techniques

Vendeurs de relations contre opérateurs de télécommunications, suite

Un conflit est en train d’éclater entre les opérateurs classiques de télécommunications et les Google, Yahoo! et autres e-Bay. Ces sociétés nées avec Internet développent un modèle économique basé sur l’offre de services gratuits incluant la téléphonie, rentabilisés par la publicité et le commerce, qui déstabilise des opérateurs dont le métier est — encore — de gérer des tuyaux et de faire payer les utilisateurs à la minute de communication.?

Note de veille

Recherche, sciences, techniques

Quaero, un moteur à la recherche de son dessein ?

Janvier s’est écoulé sans que l’Agence de l’innovation industrielle (AII) présente, comme cela avait été annoncé depuis décembre, le projet franco-allemand Quaero, moteur de recherche multimédia. Quaero devrait d’ici le printemps être labellisé et recevoir 200 à 400 millions d’euros par an sur cinq ans (Google a investi 327 millions de dollars en recherche et développement sur les neuf derniers mois de 2005) ?

Revue

Recherche, sciences, techniques

The New Look of Computing

Pierre Bonnaure surveys here the different trends that are changing the world of computing today. He starts by recalling that Moore's Law - which for more than 30 years has predicted that the density of microprocessors (i.e. the number of transistors integrated on a single silicon chip) would double every 18 months - might well reach saturation point quite quickly. He highlights the various innovations under way or in the pipeline from most of the manufacturers of processors (Intel, IBM...) in order to cope with these limits and improve computer architecture. Lastly, he assesses the impact of these changes on the main producers of computer hardware and software, and the shifts in strategy of the main players in the sector.

Note de veille

Entreprises, travail - Recherche, sciences, techniques - Société, modes de vie

Voyages : plus de 10 % du CA par Internet

Faits : Les Européens vont effectuer 11,3% de leurs achats de voyages en ligne en 2006 (9,5 % en 2005), selon le Center for Regional and Tourism Research danois. Les Américains ont déjà en 2005 dépensé 65,4 milliards de dollars US pour réserver 30% de leurs titres de voyage en ligne (+25,5%/an) d’après PhoCusWright. L’influence d’Internet dépasse ces chiffres car beaucoup d’achats conclus par les voies traditionnelles sont préparés en ligne. Selon une ...

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Bibliography

Entreprises, travail - Recherche, sciences, techniques - Ressources naturelles, énergie, environnement

Recherches et technologies du futur : quelles orientations pour la production et la consommation d’énergie ?

Le monde s'oriente-t-il vers un avenir énergétique durable ? La poursuite des tendances actuelles laisse penser que non. Le Conseil économique et social, se plaçant à l'horizon 2050, dresse le panorama du mix énergétique raisonné et équilibré qui devrait prévaloir à cette date. Aucune source d'énergie ne peut être exclue a priori, selon cet organisme. Les recherches doivent être activement poursuivies dans tous les domaines. Le XXIe siècle verra se développer une production décentralisée, notamment dans certains espaces ...

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Bibliography

Recherche, sciences, techniques

Étude prospective sur les métiers de la fonction publique hospitalière. Facteurs d’évolution. Enjeux et impacts sur les ressources humaines

Le secteur de la santé connaît depuis quelques années de grands bouleversements (progrès des techniques médicales, développement du consumérisme, restructuration de l'offre de soins, réorganisation des modes de prises en charge...). Afin d'accompagner les établissements de la fonction publique hospitalière (FPH) dans ces évolutions, une étude prospective a été menée sur l'évolution des grandes familles de métiers de la FPH. Dix facteurs démographiques, médico-économiques, socio-culturels, technologiques, réglementaires et organisationnels ont été identifiés comme impactant ces métiers à ...

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Revue

Entreprises, travail - Recherche, sciences, techniques - Ressources naturelles, énergie, environnement

Where Should We Look for Ways of Coping with the Greenhouse Effect?

As is clear from reading most of the articles in this special issue, all the scenarios for stabilizing or reducing emissions of greenhouse gases to "acceptable" limits require a real effort to tackle the growth of energy consumption. As Véronique Lamblin emphasizes here, all possible means of increasing energy supplies (especially by improving yields or lowering the costs of production technologies) are to be welcomed; nevertheless, this approach alone will probably not be sufficient, given the current concerns about climate change.
Consequently, after highlighting the crucial importance of dealing with the energy problem, she presents here some possible ways of reducing energy consumption in the industrialized countries: production technologies involving a lower carbon content, cutting back demand for electricity and energy for transport, intelligent devices for detecting and reducing waste, management of energy use in housing, industry and vehicles, substitution between products and services, etc. Unfortunately, despite many possibilities that already exist or are in prospect, tackling energy consumption remains a taboo subject, especially because it is too often wrongly understood as holding back economic growth, and it does not attract the amount of effort (in terms of technological or socio-organizational research, for example) needed to match the stakes involved.
This is one of the major failures of both governments and business, in France, in Europe, and throughout the world. It is obvious that if active measures are not taken soon to improve matters, stabilizing the greenhouse gas emissions and thus limiting global warming will remain merely pious hopes.

Bibliography

Entreprises, travail - Recherche, sciences, techniques

Science, technologie et industrie. Perspectives de l’OCDE

La science, la technologie et l'innovation sont désormais au centre des efforts pour dynamiser la croissance économique et améliorer le bien-être social. Les pays de l'OCDE comme les économies non-membres engagent de vastes réformes pour accroître les investissements dans la science, la technologie et l'innovation, et renforcer la contribution que ceux-ci apportent aux économies nationales dans un contexte de mondialisation croissante. Quelle est la nature des réformes qu'ils ont introduites, et quels sont les principaux problèmes ...

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Bibliography

Économie, emploi - Recherche, sciences, techniques

Information Economy Report 2006. The Development Perspective

Le Sommet mondial sur la société de l'information, qui s'est tenu à Tunis en novembre 2005, a affirmé le rôle des technologies de l'information et de la communication (TIC) dans le développement. L'engagement a été pris de veiller à ce que les TIC servent à l'instauration d'une société de l'information « véritablement mondiale, ouverte et solidaire, profitant aux individus partout dans le monde ». Le premier chapitre de ce rapport traite du degré de participation ...

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Bibliography

Recherche, sciences, techniques

Prospective TIC 2026

Cette étude a été commandée à l'une société d'études et de conseil (Markess International) spécialisée dans l'analyse de la modernisation et de la transformation des organisations par les technologies de l'information (TIC), à l'occasion des 20 ans de l'entreprise Prosodie, et elle a pour objectif d'interroger l'avenir des TIC à l'horizon des 20 prochaines années, en s'appuyant en particulier sur des entretiens avec des directeurs des systèmes d'information. L ...

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Chapitre recherche, sciences...

Ce chapitre est extrait du Rapport Vigie 2016 de Futuribles International, qui propose un panorama structuré des connaissances et des incertitudes des experts que l'association a mobilisés pour explorer les évolutions des 15 à 35 prochaines années sur 11 thématiques.