Recherche, sciences, techniques

Cette page regroupe l'ensemble des publications de Futuribles sur cette thématique (Vigie, revue, bibliographie, études, etc.)

Revue

Recherche, sciences, techniques - Société, modes de vie

Linguistic Diversity on the Internet

The dream of making the Internet a unique space where everyone in the world can communicate on equal terms has been slow in coming true because there are many obstacles preventing some countries and their residents from benefiting from the resources offered by the Web (as Kamel Touati argues elsewhere in this issue). This can be seen, too, in the range of languages used on the Internet, which indeed appears to reflect certain geopolitical situations.
As Anne de Beer and Gérard Blanc explain here, so far the Internet seems to have reinforced the dominance of certain of the most widely spoken languages, especially English. About 72% of the websites in 2002 were in English although that was the language of only a third of the Web users.
A factor contributing to this situation has been the ASCII protocol, which was designed for English and makes it hard to use some other languages, in particular Arabic and Asian languages.
The results are less dramatic when one looks at the languages used by people to communicate with each other via the Web: they then prefer to use their mother tongue. Moreover, the recent rise of the blog, reflecting a desire to reach a smaller audience closer to the writer, could allow an increase in the range of languages used on the Internet, in particular French.

Revue

Entreprises, travail - Recherche, sciences, techniques - Société, modes de vie

The Era of Very Wide Choice. Review of Chris Anderson's The Long Tail

Are modern societies condemned to a mass market culture based on bestsellers and publishing phenomena like the Harry Potter books? No, that's all in the past, argues Chris Anderson in his book The Long Tail, which Geoffrey Delcroix examines here.
From now on, the markets for cultural goods are likely to operate according to the principle of the "long tail". Alongside a few bestsellers will be "niche products" with much smaller sales. Firms may henceforth find it just as worthwhile to offer a vast range of CDs, books and films as to put all their efforts into selling a handful of high-profile products.
Yet this principle will require firms to hold stocks of goods that they know will sell more slowly, which is why the Internet is a great boon in coping with the long tail. Thanks to e-commerce, it is now possible to offer an enormous range of goods on the Internet for an indefinite period at minimal cost. This concept, it must be acknowledged, ultimately also benefits consumers and promotes cultural diversity.

Revue

Recherche, sciences, techniques

The Challenge of the ICTs for the Arab World. The Spread of Information and Communication Technologies in Arab Countries

The rise of the knowledge economy has marked the start of a race for technological innovation that is apparently widening the "digital divide" between North and South: whereas most people living in the richest countries now have access to the information and communication technologies (ICTs), this is far from true in poorer regions, especially in the Arab world.
Kamel Touati presents here a survey of the spread of ICTs in the Arab world and explains that the region suffers from a "double digital divide". The first separates the kingdoms of the Gulf, which are richer and more advanced with regard to ICTs, from the rest of the Arab world, where access to these technologies remains a challenge. There is then a second divide, between the Arab nations and the rest of the world, associated with the lack of funding for R&D, the absence of co-ordination among nations and the often prohibitive costs of ICTs.
Consequently Arab countries have differing levels of access to the Internet and the Arabic language is little used on the Web. This situation is damaging both for the populations of these countries and for their cultural influence abroad.

Analyse prospective

Recherche, sciences, techniques - Société, modes de vie

Vers une société d’échanges sans contacts

Beaucoup de nos pratiques, de nos gestes quotidiens sont en train de changer rapidement et pour les acteurs de l’offre, la relation avec le client, l’administré, le citoyen s’en trouve modifiée, déplacée dans le temps et l’espace. Le téléphone portable, les autres terminaux mobiles, les accès fixes et mobiles à Internet, mais aussi le développement du « sans contact » sont les vecteurs de cette transformation. Elle est en train de faire émerger de nouvelles pratiques : les lieux ...

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Revue

Institutions - Recherche, sciences, techniques

The Challenge of High Bandwidth for Local Authorities

French local authorities are currently doing more and more to improve their communications infrastructures, as can be seen from the figure published in January 2007 by the Association of Cities and Local Authorities for Electronic Communications: 448 million Euros were invested in public open-access networks in 2006. But what kind of initiatives are these? There are as many forms of intervention as there are local authorities, and this diversity is a good thing.
Nevertheless, digital technologies are such an important factor in people's everyday lives, in local development and planning, and in a region's competitiveness that it would be suicidal for local authorities to make commitments in this field without a great deal of prior strategic thinking, especially given the wide range of actors involved who are powerful and in competition with each other. How can the local authorities find a way, between the state (the monopoly provider in the past), the new generation of providers and the equipment manufacturers, to create local public access to very high bandwidth networks without themselves having to finance investments that should really be the responsibility of the other actors just mentioned?
Agnès Huet and Pascal Buléon offer their view of this important issue. They do not avoid discussing either the technical debates or the selfish behaviour of some of the actors who try to make the local authorities provide funding without giving them any decision-making capacity. Hardly a week passes without some spectacular initiative somewhere in the world to improve local digital access, such as the free wi-fi offered in San Francisco by Google, but it is obvious that in this race, there will be winners and losers. The authors plead the case here that the losers in France should not be the local authorities and, ultimately, the users.

Revue

Recherche, sciences, techniques

The Invasion of the Cell Phone

More than three billion people worldwide now possess a mobile phone and the figure could rise to six billion by 2010. The mobile phone has increasingly become a means of social interaction and not just of communication.
Manufacturers and service providers are constantly expanding the range of possibilities offered by their cell phones (access to the Internet, television, etc.), and Apple has just launched its iPhone, a combination of cell phone and iPod, among other things.
However, Gérard Blanc argues, the industry's search for new functions for cell phones should not be made without regard for what users really want from their phones. Here he offers a brief survey of the spread of mobiles around the world, especially in France, and of how they are used. He also presents the scenarios of the Seville Institute for Technological Forecasting as to possible trends in mobile telecommunications between now and 2020.

Note de veille

Recherche, sciences, techniques

Censeurs et internautes en Asie ou l’éternelle bataille de la cuirasse et du boulet

Ronald Deibert dirige le Citizen Lab, un laboratoire de recherche interdisciplinaire qui conduit l'OpenNet Initiative (ONI), lequel vise à étudier le filtrage de l'internet et les pratiques de sa surveillance par les différents Etats. Dans un article publié par la Far Eastern Economic Review, R. Deibert s'attache au contexte asiatique et au jeu constant du chat et de la souris entre les citoyens qui tentent d'accéder à l'information et les autorités qui veulent la contrôler ...

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Revue

Recherche, sciences, techniques - Ressources naturelles, énergie, environnement

The Energy Requirements of Buildings. Ways of Achieving Better Control of Demand for Energy

The energy policies of the European Union and of its individual members all include a commitment to three main aims: limiting emissions of greenhouse gases, improving the economic efficiency of markets for energy, and ensuring greater independence with regard to energy supplies. Action on both supply and demand is required in order to achieve these goals, and influencing the demand side is particularly complicated, involving attempts to improve the energy efficiency of transport and also of buildings. This article focuses on the latter.
The authors begin by enumerating the main factors that determine the energy consumption of buildings (heating, provision of hot water, cooking and electricity supply), showing how they have changed in the course of recent decades. They then discuss the potential for energy savings in the future.
While they stress what progress is possible, they nevertheless highlight the problem that buildings, especially housing, cannot change quickly. They therefore explore what approaches to renovation might improve the energy efficiency of existing buildings.

Revue

Entreprises, travail - Géopolitique - Recherche, sciences, techniques

Research and Innovation in Europe: Slow Progress Towards the Aims of the Lisbon Summit

At the European Union summit in Lisbon in 2000, the member states committed themselves to making Europe "the most competitive and dynamic economy" in the world. Seven years later, there seems little chance of achieving this objective for research by 2010. By international standards, the EU is not doing well, and is still lagging behind countries like the USA and Japan, with regard to both the amount of investment in research and the results obtained; this is even more true of innovation.
One of the reasons for this poor showing is the lack of co-ordination of research at national, intergovernmental and EU levels, argues Pierre Papon. In order to improve this situation, it is urgent for member countries to increase their spending on research and for them to do more to develop Europe-wide research programmes by combining their efforts.
The priority given to research in Europe obviously influences the scale of scientific discoveries Europe makes and hence to some extent the EU's opportunities for innovation, says Pierre Papon, but also the image that its own residents and other nations have of the EU.

Revue

Recherche, sciences, techniques - Société, modes de vie

European Science Museums

In this age of digital television, the Internet and "unimedia", when it seems we can access everything from our own homes, is there still a future for museums? Nowadays do developments in science and technology - the uses of which are becoming increasingly controversial, the source of hopes but also of fears - generate the same enthusiasm as they did in the "golden age" when everyone had faith in progress?
And what can museums of science and technology do - with what limits and under what conditions - to inform their visitors and encourage them to take part in the dialogue between science, technology and society that is now so vital?
Dominique Ferriot retraces here how such museums have evolved or, rather, have adapted to modern needs for an understanding of the changes under way, helping people to adopt or reject the new tools and use them in ways that are often quite different from the ones for which they were designed.

Note de veille

Entreprises, travail - Recherche, sciences, techniques

De la pensée complexe aux processeurs multi-cœurs

Il est important pour deux raisons différentes de décrypter ce qui se cache derrière les annonces de processeurs à cœurs de plus en plus nombreux, un marché de plusieurs milliards d’euros. D’une part la bonne marche de toutes les entreprises dépend de la qualité de leur informatique et bien des spécialistes se laissent abuser, ne distinguant pas caractéristiques techniques et valeur d’usage effective ; d’autre part, il est intéressant d’observer comment se construit l’opinion dans ...

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Note de veille

Entreprises, travail - Recherche, sciences, techniques

(In) intelligence économique militaro-jacobine

Les difficultés de Safran, qui dégradent la position française en téléphonie, démontrent qu’être obnubilé par la défense au détriment des principaux marchés, qui sont civils, aboutit à des catastrophes stratégiques.??

Forum

Recherche, sciences, techniques

The Future of Medicines

Philippe Pignarre, an expert on the pharmaceutical industry (for which he worked for 17 years), reveals here some of the rules governing this rather peculiar world. In particular, he mentions the links in many countries between doctors and the pharmaceutical laboratories, which complicates the relationship between them and the use that may be made of medicines.
He also discusses recent developments in medicines, especially thanks to the discovery of antibiotics, which have radically transformed the methods employed in clinical studies.
The global pharmaceutical industry is currently seeing its costs rising while at the same time the number of new medicines is falling and their efficacy is not always yet proven. The increasing costs of medicines could well threaten the system of subsidizing prescriptions and indeed patients themselves. Moreover, as the author explains, the study of medicines in fact raises a far more general problem about the uncertainties relating to the effects of these substances on human beings over the long term.

Bibliography

Économie, emploi - Recherche, sciences, techniques

Offshoring Work, Not Jobs

Les délocalisations ont déjà fait l'objet de vifs débats. Ce document s'attache à la question du transfert de services liés aux technologies de l'information (TI) dans des pays à bas salaires. Les études vont à l'encontre des idées reçues en la matière. En effet, en général, les délocalisations de services liés aux TI entraînent des gains pour les pays concernés et aucune perte d'emplois n'est à redouter dans les pays qui transfèrent de telles ...

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Bibliography

Recherche, sciences, techniques - Société, modes de vie

D1gital Territ0ries. Towards the Protection of Public and Private Space in a Digital and Ambient Intelligence Environment

Les hommes vivent dans un monde complètement modelé par l'information numérisée. De plus en plus de données personnelles sont recueillies, stockées et échangées sous forme numérique. Une partie de la population estime que ces données sont sensibles, et que toutes ces opérations posent de nouveaux défis et soulèvent nombre de questions concernant la protection de la vie privée et des données personnelles. Le droit au respect de la vie privée, garanti par l'article 8 de la Convention européenne ...

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Bibliography

Recherche, sciences, techniques

IT and the East. How China and India are Altering the Future of Technology and Innovation ?

James M. Popkin et Partha Iyengar sont deux spécialistes des technologies de l'information (TI) qui occupent des postes de direction au sein de Gartner Inc., la firme de consultance américaine spécialisée dans le conseil aux entreprises de haute technologie. Point de départ de cet ouvrage, le constat selon lequel dans le domaine technologique, le centre de gravité du monde a basculé à l'est. Certes, les pays occidentaux sont déjà accoutumés au rôle de la Chine et de l ...

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Bibliography

Recherche, sciences, techniques

Les Perspectives des communications de l’OCDE 2007

Pour dessiner le paysage des télécommunications dans les pays de l'OCDE, cette neuvième édition d'une série qui paraît tous les deux ans reprend les mêmes têtes de chapitre : grandes orientations, évolutions récentes des politiques, taille, dimensions et évolution du marché et des réseaux, Internet, radiodiffusion, tarification et échanges commerciaux. De plus, un chapitre original traite des communications dans les économies émergentes regroupées sous l'acronyme « BRICs » (Brésil, Russie, Inde, Chine auxquels est ajoutée l'Afrique du Sud). Depuis ...

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Bibliography

Recherche, sciences, techniques - Territoires, réseaux

Le Management stratégique des grandes métropoles des pays avancés - Étude comparative

En mai 2005, un premier rapport de l'ADIT sur les bonnes pratiques du « management stratégique régional » dans l'économie de la connaissance montrait comment les régions bien gérées savent, en tirant le meilleur parti de leurs ressources, assurer à leurs habitants emplois et prospérité. Les deux plus grandes aires métropolitaines européennes, celles de Londres et de Paris, n'avaient pas été intégrées dans l'étude, malgré leur potentiel exceptionnel de ressources humaines et leur dynamisme, car les caractéristiques particulières ...

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Bibliography

Recherche, sciences, techniques - Société, modes de vie

Fabriquer le futur. L’imaginaire au service de l’innovation

Comment inventer de nouveaux produits et services que les consommateurs adopteront durablement ? La conception traditionnelle de l'innovation, principalement fondée sur les développements technologiques, a montré ses limites. Face à ce constat, les auteurs proposent d'intégrer à la stratégie d'innovation la notion d'imaginaire. En effet, explorer l'imaginaire, et notamment celui du consommateur, va permettre de mieux répondre à ses aspirations et d'introduire de nouveaux profils. Aux côtés des ingénieurs et techniciens, on trouvera des co-acteurs ...

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Bibliography

Géopolitique - Recherche, sciences, techniques

FTTH in Europe : Forecast & Prognosis, 2006-2011

Depuis bientôt 30 ans, la fibre optique jusqu'au domicile (Fiber To The Home, FTTH) est présentée comme le vecteur futur et universel de toutes les communications numérisées. Cependant, son avancement n'est pas encore au rendez-vous. Le rapport 2007 Perspectives des communications de l'OCDE (Organisation de coopération et de développement économiques), qui fait le point sur les performances du secteur des télécommunications dans la zone OCDE et les moyens d'y parvenir, situe la fibre optique parmi les ...

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Bibliography

Recherche, sciences, techniques - Ressources naturelles, énergie, environnement

Changements climatiques et risques sanitaires en France

Le choix a été fait pour ce deuxième rapport de l'ONERC (après le premier paru en juin 2005, voir Bibliographie Prospective n°29) de traiter plus en profondeur la question des interactions entre changement climatique et risques sanitaires. Les épisodes de canicule, l'apparition de maladies nouvelles comme le chikungunya en Italie ou la fièvre catarrhale ovine aux Pays-Bas, le désarroi à la suite de catastrophes comme le cyclone Katrina à la Nouvelle-Orléans, les interactions entre le réchauffement climatique ...

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Chapitre recherche, sciences...

Ce chapitre est extrait du Rapport Vigie 2016 de Futuribles International, qui propose un panorama structuré des connaissances et des incertitudes des experts que l'association a mobilisés pour explorer les évolutions des 15 à 35 prochaines années sur 11 thématiques.