Recherche, sciences, techniques

Cette page regroupe l'ensemble des publications de Futuribles sur cette thématique (Vigie, revue, bibliographie, études, etc.)

Bibliography

Recherche, sciences, techniques

The Future of The Internet III

Pour cette troisième édition de l?étude The Future of the Internet, huit « scénarios », non exclusifs les uns des autres, ont été soumis à des professionnels d?Internet et des journalistes spécialisés (1 200 au total) afin d?évaluer leur probabilité d?occurrence. 1. Dans un premier scénario, en 2020, le téléphone portable constitue le principal support de connexion à Internet dans le monde, grâce à des prix relativement faibles. L?action des multinationales et d?organismes internationaux a permis ...

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Bibliography

Économie, emploi - Recherche, sciences, techniques

Information Economy Report 2008 - Science and Technology for Development : The New Paradigm of ICT

Ce rapport analyse la contribution des technologies de l'information et de la communication (TIC) à la croissance et au développement à travers l'expérience des pays en développement. Il commence par présenter de manière très synthétique l'impact des TIC sur l'ensemble de l'économie. Technologies généralistes, elles modifient radicalement l'approche de la technologie pour le développement à travers les six effets suivants : 1) leur impact économique est plus important que leur contribution directe au PIB (produit ...

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Bibliography

Entreprises, travail - Recherche, sciences, techniques

Le Rôle des think-tanks dans la définition de la politique scientifique et technologique aux États-Unis

Alors que les think-tanks ont fait l'objet d'un certain nombre d'études ces dernières années, peu d'attention a été accordée jusqu'ici au rôle majeur que ces organisations jouent dans la définition de la politique scientifique et technologique américaine. La présente étude se propose de déterminer les caractéristiques, le rôle et les canaux d'influence de ces organisations dans le domaine des sciences et de la technologie. Si certains think-tanks se consacrent clairement aux questions scientifiques et ...

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Chapitre de rapport annuel vigie

Recherche, sciences, techniques - Société, modes de vie

Chapitre 7 du rapport Vigie 2007 : Vers la connexion permanente et des identités multiples

Internet se déploie au niveau planétaire. Une conjonction d’avancées technologiques rapides favorisera plus encore, dans les années à venir, une mutation forte de nos usages des moyens de communication, et probablement de nos comportements voire de nos valeurs. Chaque individu devra ainsi gérer une véritable « identité numérique », constituée des contributions (sur les blogs, par exemple) et des traces qu’il laisse. Du côté des perspectives technologiques (qui ne surdéterminent pas les usages), la poursuite de la tendance à l ...

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Chapitre de rapport annuel vigie

Recherche, sciences, techniques

Chapitre 6 du rapport Vigie 2007 : L’invasion des biotechnologies

Deux décennies après les premières transgenèses (transferts d’un gène « étranger » dans un virus ou une bactérie qui devient ainsi un OGM, organisme génétiquement modifié), cette technique s’est développée et a eu de nombreuses applications. Des plantes ou des animaux ayant reçu un gène spécifique sont utilisés pour fabriquer des protéines intéressantes comme médicaments ; des propriétés différentes, qualités nutritives, résistances aux nuisances, à des plantes ou des insectes, peuvent être ajoutées ; et grâce aux thérapies géniques, on peut suppléer ...

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CR table ronde

Recherche, sciences, techniques

2020 : les scénarios du futur

Joël de Rosnay a proposé lors de cette table ronde ne présentation de son livre récemment publié, 2020 : les scénarios du futur. Ce livre est né d’une série de conférences destinées au grand public et faites à la Cité des Sciences de la Villette en 2006. L’année 2020 a été choisie car elle constitue un horizon temporel « atteignable », éloigné de nous de 13 ans soit l’équivalent d’une demi-génération. Cinq grands thèmes ont été abordés dans ces ...

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Revue

Recherche, sciences, techniques

The French Obsession with Lagging Behind. An Analysis of the Rhetoric about Technological Backwardness

For several years now the theme of the decline of France, far from being new, has come back into fashion with the publication of various alarmist books. From Nicolas Baverez to Alain Minc or Jacques Julliard, to mention just a few, the "declinologists" are regularly in the news in France, highlighting how far France is lagging behind the other industrialized countries. But what exactly is this supposed lag? And lagging behind with respect to what?
Julie Bouchard, whose doctoral thesis was on this subject, shares her main conclusions with us here. Having carefully examined the rhetoric regarding French backwardness in science and technology, she shows how much the assessment of it varies with space and time, and how it serves as a means of expressing particular concerns.
She goes on to identify four main "ideal standards" in what is said about the French failure to keep up in the field of science and technology. The first is based on the idea of scientific progress for its own sake (hence the need for systematic efforts to overcome any deficiency in this regard); the second relates to interdependence, so that backwardness is defined in terms of the interdependence among disciplines or between science and society; the third is based on international comparisons; and the last relates to administrative or managerial objectives. These four standards coexist in time and space, Julie Bouchard concludes, but in recent years the main emphasis has tended to be on the last two: international comparisons and with reference to some predetermined objective.

Revue

Éducation - Entreprises, travail - Géopolitique - Recherche, sciences, techniques

Higher Education in Europe. Recent Developments and Future Perspectives

In this article, as the French government sets out to undertake a major reform of the country's higher education system, Barbara Kehm highlights current trends in Europe in this field.
The author starts by describing the "Bologna process", which launched a new system of qualifications and a series of major reforms of higher education programmes in more than 40 European countries. She then shows how this process (started in 1999) has been combined with the Lisbon strategy (2000) with the aim of establishing by 2010 a Europe-wide system of higher education linked to plans for research and innovation.
Barbara Kehm also examines how the role of the state in the management of higher education is changing in Europe. She discusses the new forms of governance that have developed against the background of the system's problems of both funding and legitimacy, resulting in growing moves towards greater autonomy for individual institutions and more vocationally oriented courses.
Finally, Barbara Kehm looks at three key issues for European higher education: more diverse sources of funding (in order above all to cope with increased numbers of students), research and improvements in quality (via better evaluation and accreditation), and internationalization (involving both co-operation and competition). She concludes her analysis by setting out the main trends in this field for the next 10 years.

Analyse prospective

Recherche, sciences, techniques

Internet transforme les secteurs de la santé

On parle depuis longtemps de télémédecine mais un concept plus large est en train d'émerger, celui d'e-santé. Les Anglo-Saxons évoquent couramment la eHealth, lui consacrent des blogs et des sites1, des articles dans les revues officielles au Canada2, des lignes de financement en Australie3. C'est qu'Internet est en train de modifier la façon dont nous gérons notre santé, ce qui dépasse la seule organisation de la médecine et ses outils. Les comportements quotidiens des gens, leurs ...

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Note de veille

Recherche, sciences, techniques - Société, modes de vie

Blogosphère : les Japonais prennent la parole massivement

Le nombre de blogs continue à croître très rapidement s’il faut en croire Technorati, moteur de recherche américain qui surveille plus de 70 millions de blogs et qui indexe plus d’un million de nouveaux billets chaque jour. 120 000 nouveaux blogs sont créés quotidiennement dans le monde. Quelles langues parlent ces bloggeurs ? Au quatrième trimestre 2006, le japonais avec 37%, dépassait l’anglais, 36% et le chinois 8%, alors qu’en avril 2005 l’anglais dominait avec 44 ...

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CR intervention d'expert

Recherche, sciences, techniques - Ressources naturelles, énergie, environnement

Quels biocarburants pour les véhicules de demain ?

Le marché des biocarburants est aujourd'hui en plein développement parce qu'il bénéficie à de nombreux acteurs. Les constructeurs automobiles notamment se disent qu'ils n'ont pas besoin de changer leurs moteurs et peuvent continuer à commercialiser les mêmes, sans véritable rupture. Il y a un véritable engouement alors qu'il existe un certain nombre de problèmes.

Analyse prospective

Recherche, sciences, techniques

Les CPL : le développement de l’Internet sur l’électricité

Selon Xavier Carcelle, la technologie des Courants porteurs en ligne (CPL) qui permet de diffuser les données Internet sur les câbles électriques pourrait contribuer au développement des accès à Internet. Les CPL permettent d'utiliser les réseaux électriques existants et ne supposent donc pas la construction de nouvelles infrastructures. Utiliser les câbles électriques comme vecteurs de signaux numériques ouvre en outre des perspectives nouvelles pour la gestion des réseaux : au niveau domestique, la maison communicante peut devenir réalité, tandis qu ...

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Note de veille

Recherche, sciences, techniques

Le GPS va entrer partout

Bientôt la géolocalisation des biens et personnes par satellite coûtera si peu que cette fonction sera introduite dans les portables et un grand nombre d'objets, ouvrant la voie à de nouveaux marchés, de nouvelles possibilités, à la fois positives et négatives.

Revue

Recherche, sciences, techniques - Société, modes de vie

Second Life: Shopping the Post-modern Way?

The huge increase in Internet bandwidth and in the power of personal computers has made possible a new sort of digital pastime: the so-called "Massively Multiplayer Online Role-playing Games" in which thousands, if not millions, of virtual individuals, the "avatars" of real human beings, interact in an equally virtual world.
When these games first started, you were most likely to be a troll 3 metres tall with an axe and magic powers, but the virtual world most talked about today is very different. In Second Life, for instance, you are an individual, admittedly sometimes a little peculiar and able to fly, but ultimately very similar to a "real" human being: in it you can wander around, earn and spend virtual money (but that you can convert into real US dollars), you can buy clothes or a house, be sexually or politically active. It is therefore another life, a chance for a banker to become a disc-jockey, or for a civil servant to play at being a farmer or to speculate in real estate.
It is thus a social phenomenon worth studying, since the players seem very keen to re-invent themselves in another life, in some ways very similar to real life yet very different too, involving strange, uninhibited and role-playing social relations. It is possible to have several avatars in Second Life and a man can be a woman, anonymity being the best disguise. It is also a techno-social phenomenon, in that Second Life further blurs the boundaries between the real and virtual worlds, the perfect symbol of the disembodiment of places and climate (it never rains on the virtual islands), and a new indicator of the omnipresence that is so much talked about.
Finally, perhaps the most surprising aspect of Second Life is economic, whether or not it lasts: an innovative economic model is emerging, apparently creating new markets into which daring firms and entrepreneurs are throwing themselves. In this article Serge Soudoplatoff explores this hypothetical vision of future commercial transactions.

Revue

Recherche, sciences, techniques

Controlling Health Costs: the Plan to Create a System of Individual Medical Records in France

The overall French Social Security budget deficit rose to 8.7 billion Euros in 2006 (compared with 11.6 billion in 2005), and the state health insurance element is estimated at 6 billion Euros. The deficit has soared at an alarming rate over the last 10 years or so and this has led to several attempts to reform the system. The latest, in 2004, made it possible to ensure that treatments are co-ordinated and bring about an initial reduction in costs (and wastage).
The second step in the reform would require everyone to have a personal medical record (dossier médical personnel, DMP). The new system is ambitious since its aim is to provide a full medical history for each patient and improve the way treatments are co-ordinated.
However, as Patricia Siwek explains, the new arrangements raise many technical and human problems. The DMP will require organization and goodwill on the part of doctors and patients; it will not replace other medical records and patients will be able to allow certain information to be added to their DMP.
In order to work, the DMP will need to be used correctly and by as many people as possible in order to offset its cost and to improve the efficiency of the health insurance system. Patricia Siwek argues that, even if the DMP alone will not be able to solve all the problems of the health insurance system, it would at least make it more transparent and rational.

Revue

Recherche, sciences, techniques

Tribute to Alexander King

Alexander King,who was born in Glasgow in 1909, died on 28 February 2007. Jean-Jacques Salomon pays his respects to this exceptional man who, in addition to his work as a scientist and the role he played as the first head of the Science and Technology Directorate at OECD (the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development), was very influential in the growth of futures studies.
King was an active member of Futuribles International from the beginning; he co-founded the Club of Rome with Aurelio Peccei and became its president on Peccei's death. Like Pierre Piganiol, who also died recently, Alexander King was among the pioneers of modern futures studies. For this reason Futuribles should pay tribute to him.

Revue

Recherche, sciences, techniques - Société, modes de vie

Linguistic Diversity on the Internet

The dream of making the Internet a unique space where everyone in the world can communicate on equal terms has been slow in coming true because there are many obstacles preventing some countries and their residents from benefiting from the resources offered by the Web (as Kamel Touati argues elsewhere in this issue). This can be seen, too, in the range of languages used on the Internet, which indeed appears to reflect certain geopolitical situations.
As Anne de Beer and Gérard Blanc explain here, so far the Internet seems to have reinforced the dominance of certain of the most widely spoken languages, especially English. About 72% of the websites in 2002 were in English although that was the language of only a third of the Web users.
A factor contributing to this situation has been the ASCII protocol, which was designed for English and makes it hard to use some other languages, in particular Arabic and Asian languages.
The results are less dramatic when one looks at the languages used by people to communicate with each other via the Web: they then prefer to use their mother tongue. Moreover, the recent rise of the blog, reflecting a desire to reach a smaller audience closer to the writer, could allow an increase in the range of languages used on the Internet, in particular French.

Revue

Entreprises, travail - Recherche, sciences, techniques - Société, modes de vie

The Era of Very Wide Choice. Review of Chris Anderson's The Long Tail

Are modern societies condemned to a mass market culture based on bestsellers and publishing phenomena like the Harry Potter books? No, that's all in the past, argues Chris Anderson in his book The Long Tail, which Geoffrey Delcroix examines here.
From now on, the markets for cultural goods are likely to operate according to the principle of the "long tail". Alongside a few bestsellers will be "niche products" with much smaller sales. Firms may henceforth find it just as worthwhile to offer a vast range of CDs, books and films as to put all their efforts into selling a handful of high-profile products.
Yet this principle will require firms to hold stocks of goods that they know will sell more slowly, which is why the Internet is a great boon in coping with the long tail. Thanks to e-commerce, it is now possible to offer an enormous range of goods on the Internet for an indefinite period at minimal cost. This concept, it must be acknowledged, ultimately also benefits consumers and promotes cultural diversity.

Revue

Recherche, sciences, techniques

The Challenge of the ICTs for the Arab World. The Spread of Information and Communication Technologies in Arab Countries

The rise of the knowledge economy has marked the start of a race for technological innovation that is apparently widening the "digital divide" between North and South: whereas most people living in the richest countries now have access to the information and communication technologies (ICTs), this is far from true in poorer regions, especially in the Arab world.
Kamel Touati presents here a survey of the spread of ICTs in the Arab world and explains that the region suffers from a "double digital divide". The first separates the kingdoms of the Gulf, which are richer and more advanced with regard to ICTs, from the rest of the Arab world, where access to these technologies remains a challenge. There is then a second divide, between the Arab nations and the rest of the world, associated with the lack of funding for R&D, the absence of co-ordination among nations and the often prohibitive costs of ICTs.
Consequently Arab countries have differing levels of access to the Internet and the Arabic language is little used on the Web. This situation is damaging both for the populations of these countries and for their cultural influence abroad.

Analyse prospective

Recherche, sciences, techniques - Société, modes de vie

Vers une société d’échanges sans contacts

Beaucoup de nos pratiques, de nos gestes quotidiens sont en train de changer rapidement et pour les acteurs de l’offre, la relation avec le client, l’administré, le citoyen s’en trouve modifiée, déplacée dans le temps et l’espace. Le téléphone portable, les autres terminaux mobiles, les accès fixes et mobiles à Internet, mais aussi le développement du « sans contact » sont les vecteurs de cette transformation. Elle est en train de faire émerger de nouvelles pratiques : les lieux ...

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Chapitre recherche, sciences...

Ce chapitre est extrait du Rapport Vigie 2016 de Futuribles International, qui propose un panorama structuré des connaissances et des incertitudes des experts que l'association a mobilisés pour explorer les évolutions des 15 à 35 prochaines années sur 11 thématiques.