Population

Cette page regroupe l'ensemble des publications de Futuribles sur cette thématique (Vigie, revue, bibliographie, études, etc.)

Bibliography

Économie, emploi - Population - Territoires, réseaux

The Challenge of Slums : Global Report on Human Settlements 2003

Si aucune mesure sérieuse n'est prise, le nombre d'habitants des bidonvilles dans le monde - un milliard de personnes - risque de doubler dans 30 ans à venir, prévient le Programme des Nations unies pour les établissements humains (ONU-Habitat). Dans The Challenge of Slums: Global Report on Human Settlements 2003, ONU-Habitat note que s'il existe des bidonvilles partout dans le monde, c'est dans les pays en développement qu'ils sont les plus nombreux. On estime que 50 % des ...

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Bibliography

Population

Best Before 01/01/2015. Future Makers. Finland 2015

Ce rapport s'inscrit dans un programme coordonné par le SITRA qui s'est déroulé sur trois ans, de 2000 à 2003, et dont l'objectif était d'identifier les défis et les facteurs de succès de la Finlande à l'horizon 2015. Il présente et synthétise les débats d'un groupe de jeunes actifs Finlandais issus de différents secteurs (journalisme, administration, entreprises, culture...) qui devaient imaginer l'avenir de leur pays. Le premier sujet abordé est celui de l ...

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Économie, emploi - Population

« Projections de population active en 2050 : l’essoufflement de la croissance des ressources en main-d’œuvre »

Du fait de son vieillissement démographique, la France, comme ses voisins européens, va devoir faire face au ralentissement de la croissance de sa population active dans les années à venir, voire à une diminution. Depuis la fin des années 1960, la croissance de la population active reposait sur le socle des générations nombreuses du baby-boom de l'après-guerre. Le prochain départ à la retraite de ces générations va assécher le moteur de cette croissance, ce qui amène à s'interroger ...

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Bibliography

Population - Société, modes de vie

« La demande potentielle de logements. L’impact du vieillissement de la population »

L'Insee (Institut national de la statistique et des études économiques) a publié, en décembre 2002, une série de projections concernant l'évolution à venir du nombre de ménages français et de la demande de logements (qui lui est liée). Premier constat : entre 1975 et 1999, le ménage moyen ayant diminué d'une demi-personne, le nombre de ménages s'est accru en moyenne de 1,2 % par an (alors que la population n'augmentait que de 0,4 % par an ...

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Population - Société, modes de vie

« La population de la France métropolitaine en 2050 : un vieillissement inéluctable »

Quelles que soient les hypothèses formulées sur la fécondité, la mortalité et les migrations, la croissance de la population métropolitaine sera assurée jusqu'en 2025, mais à un rythme annuel moyen inférieur à celui observé au cours des 50 dernières années. En 2050, la France métropolitaine comptera de 58 à 70 millions d'habitants selon les différents scénarios retenus. À cet horizon, plus du tiers de la population sera âgée de plus de 60 ans, contre une sur cinq en ...

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Population

La population des 36.565 communes françaises en 2020

Les projections démographiques locales ne sont pas des prévisions et sont le plus souvent difficiles à mettre en oeuvre. Fondées sur une grande variété d'hypothèses, elles pèchent à ne pas prendre en compte l'espace dans lequel elles sont situées. C'est pourquoi à partir d'un lissage spatial des données, il est possible d'approcher la configuration spatiale à venir des phénomènes de croissance et d'en déduire les dynamiques communales probables à l'horizon 2020. Après avoir ...

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Bibliography

Économie, emploi - Population

« Population active et marché du travail dans les pays méditerranéens »

La population des pays méditerranéens est aujourd'hui relativement jeune, si bien que selon les projections, les taux de croissance de la population active de ces pays seront parmi les plus élevés du monde entre 2000 et 2010. Cette évolution contraste avec celle de l'Union européenne, qui est inverse : arrivée de générations peu nombreuses sur le marché du travail, départ en retraite de classes nombreuses et stagnation de la population dans les années à venir.

Bibliography

Économie, emploi - Population

Marché du travail et immigration sélective. Bilan et perspectives à l’horizon 2050 dans les trois régions belges

Bon nombre d'économistes et d'organisations internationales considèrent que l'immigration sélective permet d'atténuer ou de résorber les déséquilibres internes sur le marché du travail, que ces déséquilibres soient de nature qualitative (inadéquation entre l'offre et la demande de qualification) ou de nature quantitative (variations de la demande et de l'offre de travail). Cet article dresse un portrait synthétique des enjeux de l'immigration sélective pour les pays d'accueil et les pays d'origine, et ...

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Bibliography

Population

Projections démographiques pour la France, ses régions et ses départements à l’horizon 2030

Quelles que soient les hypothèses formulées sur la mortalité, la fécondité et les migrations, la population française va vieillir : selon le scénario central, correspondant à une prolongation des tendances des deux dernières décennies, la part des personnes âgées de 60 ans ou plus sera de 31,1 % en 2030 contre 20,6 % en 2000. Au niveau régional et départemental, ce phénomène sera plus ou moins important en raison notamment des mouvements migratoires. Le vieillissement touchera plus particulièrement les départements peu ...

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Revue

Géopolitique - Population

Les flux migratoires internationaux en Europe

Population growth in European countries -as in any region- depends on both natural increase (the difference between births and deaths) and, to a large extent, on migration flows, i.e. the net outcome of residents leaving and people arriving, whether from within Europe or from outside. It is therefore extremely important to measure these flows accurately and, since the aim is to control them, to try to anticipate or at least understand the factors that may be driving or restraining them.
Unfortunately, according to Michel Poulain and Anne Herm, our knowledge of the flows within the European Union and of immigration from other countries is remarkably hazy -even though accurate knowledge is an obvious prerequisite for any ultimate agreement on a common migration policy- because the methods used for measuring flows are not altogether satisfactory and differ from country to country. For example, the authors point out, the estimates of the number of Italian immigrants in Belgium differ widely depending on which country's statistics you use.
Michel Poulain and Anne Herm present a sometimes surprising description of the methods used to measure international mobility, stressing the practical problems, the uncertainties surrounding the figures currently collected, indeed the real oddities that can occur.
In the second section, while bearing in mind the difficulties with the available statistics, the authors present an overview of the main trends within the European Union, focusing first on the size of the foreign populations in each of the member states and then on the special features of migration flows into Europe from outside.
While the growth of population flows within Europe augur well for greater European unity, the authors nevertheless conclude that there is an urgent need for more reliable data on international migration and, furthermore, this will be achieved only if there is a clear policy for the EU as a whole. Unfortunately, in this area even more than others, there is a regrettable tendency among the member states to shy away from the problem, doubtless for fear that the truth might be too disturbing.

Revue

Population

L’Espagne : nouvelle terre d’immigration

Spain, a member of the European Community since 1986 and now also guardpost of the Schengen area, must today cope with the challenge of immigration. Traditionally Spain sent large numbers of migrants abroad, but in the last 20 years it has attracted an increasing flow of immigrants. Today, almost a million foreigners live in Spain.
Francisco Zamora Lopez analyses the nature of this immigration and outlines the future prospects. He distinguishes the old European migrants from the young migrants from the rest of the world, stressing the sudden upturn in immigrants from Africa. The foreigners' destinations vary according to nationality, age and sex, but there is an underlying pattern of sending countries: from the other European countries come retired people, the "farniente" immigrants whose numbers are likely to remain stable; other countries send temporary workers, also likely to maintain a steady flow; while young people come from poor countries, wishing to work and to stay, and their share of the Spanish total is likely to increase.
Turning to the future, the author looks at several factors affecting migration flows: geographical origin, cultural similarity, level of economic development, migration policies, state of the world economy, etc.
Faced with these flows, the Spanish authorities are vigilant but this does not stop them from punishing the exploitation of migrants or ensuring that their human rights are respected, while also preparing Spanish society to accept new and different groups to live in the country.

Bibliography

Géopolitique - Population

A Tale of Two Bellies. The Remarkable Demographic Difference between America and Europe

Les tendances démographiques constituent, on le sait, des variables primordiales et pourtant souvent négligées. En la matière, un phénomène particulièrement important est flagrant pour ce qui concerne les évolutions contrastées de l'Europe de l'Ouest et des États-Unis. Un récent dossier de The Economist en souligne les perspectives et les enjeux . La vitalité démographique américaine actuelle, comparée à la relative torpeur européenne, pourrait avoir des conséquences extraordinaires sur la structure des populations, le dynamisme économique et les relations géopolitiques ...

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Revue

Géopolitique - Population - Société, modes de vie

Postmatérialisme et structure des opinions sur la famille

Over the last 25 years we have seen the start of a trend in Europe towards a decline in the "nuclear" family and an increase in single-parent or step families. What has been happening to family values during this period?
This is the topic examined by Nicolas Herpin, based on the results of the European Values Survey in 11 western European countries in 1981, 1990 and 1999.
Thanks to the surveys he has been able to draw up a list of the factors that Europeans reckon to be the key to stable partnership. Top of the list is good interpersonal communication, followed by doing things together, material considerations and, at the bottom of the list, opinions about same-sex partnerships. This pattern, which could be labelled "postmaterialist", varies little with age, gender or socio-economic category, and reflects a general consensus within the countries concerned, with the exception of Denmark. As to what shapes public opinion, religion appears still to have a strong influence on private life and family cohesion.
Nicolas Herpin then looks at the values particularly emphasized in bringing up children. Of the 11 qualities that parents should encourage in their children, the most widely approved were tolerance and respect for others, followed by a sense of one's responsibilities and good manners. Herpin stresses the rise of individualism, linked to young people's greater economic independence. These rankings differ more from country to country than the previous group. Similarly, clear differences between countries can be seen with regard to the social structure of public opinion.
The author concludes that countries are "differently similar" with regard to these two aspects of family life. Conjugal values have not changed over the last 20 years and differ little among European countries, all the less where the Roman Catholic church is dominant, whereas the values that should be passed on to children appear neither as stable over time nor as uniform geographically. Countries fall into groups according to the nature of their domestic labour market and the position of young people in it.

Revue

Économie, emploi - Population

L’emploi des salariés âgés. Perspectives et comparaisons internationales

All the countries of Europe are now faced with an ageing population, and this trend will only intensify in future as the post-war 'baby boom' generation reaches retirement. France is no exception, and if social legislation does not change, the growing imbalance between those in work and the dependent population is likely to aggravate two latent problems: of financing the baby boomers' pensions, and of filling job vacancies -perhaps even labour shortages- as a result of the possible reduction in the economically active population.
François Michaux is interested in the latter problem. After recalling that one of the first measures to take in order to prevent a worsening of the ratio of dependent to working population is to raise the retirement age (currently 60 for men and women in France), he stresses the importance of encouraging the employment of older people. This is all the more necessary, he argues, because the heavy reliance on early retirement schemes as a way of restructuring the workforce and creating opportunities for younger people has tended to accustom the French to the exact opposite.
Michaux looks at the solutions adopted in other countries faced with similar problems (e.g. Japan, the United States, Spain, Finland), and suggests a series of measures that might be used to encourage firms to keep older people in work or even to hire them. As regards public policies, he thinks the Anglo-Saxon model is the best option for the future: establishing mechanisms that encourage individuals to mix work and retirement, combined with a reduction in the costs to employers. From the firms' angle, he stresses the benefits of employing older workers, in terms both of economics and of image: the value of experience in the case of certain categories of staff, savings on the costs of training, reliability, lower wage demands from employees, as well as a less open-ended commitment on the part of the employers. Lastly, Michaux points out that employing older people may confer a competitive advantage in future, in particular as the growing elderly market is targeted.

Bibliography

Population

« La population en France en 2001 »

La population en France était, au 1er janvier 2002, de 61,1 millions d'habitants. L'année 2001 a été marquée par le maintien du nombre de naissances par rapport à 2000 et par la poursuite de la baisse du taux de mortalité. L'âge moyen à la maternité continue de reculer. Le nombre de PACS (pacte civil de solidarité) conclus a diminué de 16 %, tandis que le nombre de mariages atteint un niveau équivalent à l'année précédente. La ...

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Revue

Population - Société, modes de vie

Sentiment d’injustice et délinquance

Is the sense of injustice, whether or not justified, a factor leading to delinquent behavior?
Laurent Bègue observes that such feelings are often blamed, but he also shows that the link between these two things can be interpreted in different ways:
- according to one school of thought, the sense of injustice is no more than a selfish excuse that delinquents invoke, either before or after the fact, to give themselves good reasons for breaking the law;
- according to another, such feelings lead to a more or less reasoned revolt against authority and the institutions representing it;
- according to yet another school, this sense (always accompanied by the question of whether or not it is justified) is at the root of a range of feelings such as anger, envy, revenge and the like.
The author discusses and links these views without really choosing among them. In this respect, he emphasizes the need for further research, noting that any preventative measures to deal with delinquency undoubtedly need to take these different views into account.

Bibliography

Entreprises, travail - Population

« Travail et vieillissement. Quelles perspectives d’emploi et de formation ? »

Les articles de ce numéro de Problèmes politiques et sociaux permettent de mieux comprendre les implications du vieillissement de la population sur le travail et les défis qu'il soulève. Tout d'abord, l'inéluctabilité de ce phénomène, corroborée par les analyses de l'Insee (Institut national de la statistique et des études économiques), ne semble pas faire de doute ; il ne s'agit pas seulement d'« un phénomène temporaire, lié au passage progressif à l'âge de la retraite ...

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Revue

Population - Société, modes de vie

Les causes de la délinquance. Un bref panorama des théories disponibles

In this article, Lorraine Tournyol du Clos provides a brilliant survey of the main theories that have been put forward up till now to explain the causes and the mechanisms behind delinquency. She distinguishes between the "classic" theories (which in her view focus on a single type of delinquency and offer a single explanatory factor) and the more recent ones which, combining the findings of earlier theories and taking account of the interaction among the different factors, try to arrive at a better understanding of the phenomena of delinquency.
Among the "classic" theories she distinguishes:
- the biological theories, which consider that delinquent behavior can be explained by the physical and psychological characteristics of the guilty person, and the sociological theories, which focus more on the person's background and on factors like poverty and social inequality or social norms and a failed socialization;
- the economic theories of criminal behavior, which differ from the previous group in that they assume that the person acted freely and was responsible for their actions; their choices can be analyzed in terms of various criteria, which she outlines.
Among the "integrated" theories of criminal behavior, she identifies the sociological ones as against those derived from classical economics, and gives a thumbnail sketch of their main features.
The author concludes with an overview of the causes and interpretations of criminal behavior, distinguishing between immediate and deeper causes, and ending with a general synthesis of all these studies.

Revue

Population - Société, modes de vie

Les noyaux délinquants

On the basis of surveys of self-confessed young law-breakers in France, Sebastian Roché confirms the view that there is a "hard core" of delinquents (which he prefers to label "overactive"): "Roughly 5% of young people are responsible for between 50% and 80% of the recorded crimes, depending on the level of seriousness of the offences. Roughly 5% of young people who break the law (whether or not they are caught by the police) commit between 30% and 60% of the total number of offences."
Roché sets out to sketch a portrait of these exceptionally delinquent young people. They tend to be male, both French and foreign, and they come from both middle-class and working-class backgrounds. They go round in gangs with friends and siblings; the level of offending increases between the ages of 13 and 17, but then declines again.
Next Roché seeks to explain their behavior, and examines what the delinquents gain from their activities and from the tyranny they wield in order to mark their territory, in the suburbs and elsewhere.
Then, having looked at the ways that young offenders can sort themselves out, the author states his own views about the policies most likely to reduce levels of delinquency. His conclusion is clear: what is needed instead of sermons is heavy sentencing to make good the damage done as soon as possible. For this, reforms will be required, especially with regard to local policing, but are unlikely to happen before the forthcoming presidential elections in France. What then?

Revue

Population - Société, modes de vie

La délinquance des jeunes : un phénomène méconnu

Fear about rising crime is one of the key issues in the current campaign for the French presidency and a topic that generates passionate debate in the other major democracies. Why is this?
In France, according to Sebastian Roché, there is too often a tendency to accuse the general public of being irrational and of feeling more insecure than is in fact warranted, and this despite the fact that the level of crime has risen substantially over the last twenty years. Criticisms of such feelings often serve simply to disguise the reality.
After giving various international comparative data on delinquency, showing that France is roughly at the midpoint in the European league table, he laments the inadequacy of the statistics on delinquency and stresses the relevance of studies carried by a team at the University of Grenoble which conducted the first large-scale survey of self-confessed law-breaking (presented elsewhere in this issue of Futuribles). He stresses the importance of getting those who commit these crimes to talk, to seek a better understanding of these phenomena, in order then to ensure that public policies in this area match their goals.

Bibliography

Population

Is the Ageing Population the Problem It’s Made Out to Be ?

Dans ce papier, Frank Shaw, directeur du Centre for Future Studies, s'élève contre l'idée que le vieillissement de la population serait un fléau économique et social. Il distingue le mythe de la réalité en rappelant que ce phénomène est avant tout une bonne nouvelle (allongement de l'espérance de vie, progrès dans la mortalité infantile...) et que les défis qu'il suscite ne sont pas insurmontables.

Revue

Population - Société, modes de vie

Parents, êtes-vous responsables ? Le rôle de la famille dans la délinquance des jeunes, résultats d’un enquête sur la délinquance « autodéclarée »

Is the shift from the traditional model of the family, based on respect for acknowledged status and norms of behavior, to a more open, "contractual" model in which individuals act according to their feelings on the basis of rules that are both negotiable and revocable -in short, families that are more precarious- one reason for the instability of children who have no points of reference and are therefore more likely to become delinquents?
No, is basically the answer given by Vincent Tournier: the relationship between parents and children is much more important than the make-up of the family -what matters is how close they are emotionally and the degree of parental supervision. Moreover, the latter is not correlated with social class (though an urban, rather than rural setting, is indeed a significant factor) but much more with the level of education and -even more- with parental values.
Can one then blame the growth in delinquency on permissive parents who were themselves young in the 1960s? Perhaps, Tournier acknowledges, but the situation is changing. Contrary to an unfortunate tradition in France, we need urgently to recognize the critical role of parents in bringing up their children, and it is possible to hope that, as parents become better educated, they will also act more responsibly in this regard.

Bibliography

Institutions - Population

Perspectives financières de la sécurité sociale 2000-2050 : le vieillissement et la viabilité du système légal des pensions

La question de la soutenabilité financière à long terme des régimes légaux de pension a fait irruption dans le débat sociopolitique belge à la fin des années 1980. Les différentes politiques touchant aux pensions mises en oeuvre durant les périodes précédentes indiquent que cette préoccupation était auparavant soit absente, soit subordonnée à des impératifs de court-moyen terme perçus comme prioritaires. Le BFP fut ainsi invité à plusieurs reprises - dans le cadre de ses missions légales d'aide à la décision ...

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Chapitre Population

Ce chapitre est extrait du Rapport Vigie 2016 de Futuribles International, qui propose un panorama structuré des connaissances et des incertitudes des experts que l'association a mobilisés pour explorer les évolutions des 15 à 35 prochaines années sur 11 thématiques.