Cette page regroupe l'ensemble des publications de Futuribles sur cette thématique (Vigie, revue, bibliographie, études, etc.)
L’année 2008 signe une inflexion dans l’histoire de l’humanité. La population urbaine devient majoritaire. D’une certaine façon, l’humanité entre de plain-pied dans l’ère urbaine. Un être humain sur deux, soit environ 3,3 milliards de personnes, habite maintenant effectivement en ville. On n’en comptait qu’un sur dix au début du XXe siècle. En un mot, comme en cent, l’Homo sapiens devient Homo urbanus. Ce mouvement d’urbanisation, plus ou moins prononcé ...
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In July 2007, the European Union adopted a regulation aimed at harmonizing the European statistics relating to international migration. As Xavier Thierry shows here, the statistical challenge is sizeable, and it has to be confronted as soon as possible: in 7 of the 27 member states (including France), the numbers of entries and departures from the national territory is not known and, where figures exist in the other countries, they are not all equally reliable or necessarily comparable.
After recalling the sources of information on international migration that exist in Europe (population registers, various surveys, residence permit files), Thierry reviews the definition of "international migrants", before concentrating more closely on the measurement of international migration flows for France and how to improve it. He then proposes some comparisons between countries of the Union, taking account of the difficulties attaching to the existing tools of measurement. Lastly, he turns to the specific case of residence permit statistics, which represent an interesting tool for the evaluation of migration policies, but which are calculated in France in a way that seems rather startling in relation to the new immigration policy announced by the government and not necessarily coherent with the principles adopted at the European level.
In France, questions of migration are, for the most part, treated from the angle of immigration: it is foreigners entering French territory who are studied. The French population does, however, also emigrate and there were in late 2006 a little under two million French people living outside France. It is with these French people in foreign lands that Bernard Gentil concerns himself in this article.
As he shows here, it is difficult to provide a precise picture of this French population abroad: the statistical resources available are not really up to the task. We may nevertheless estimate the overall size of this group, its distribution and the trends within it over a little more than the last 20 years.
Thus, for example, the number of French people living abroad has risen by 3-4% per annum in the last 10 years. 80% of them are to be found in 25 countries (mostly in Western Europe) and their presence in Africa is falling. In most cases, these French people are settled abroad on a long-term rather than a short-stay basis, but there is no actual "exodus" of French people, contrary to what is sometimes reported in the media... Lastly, because there are no sufficiently representative surveys, we cannot specify the social characteristics of these French people living abroad with any precision (though they are often more highly educated and enjoy a higher standard of living than the local population, and are generally, but not exclusively, in the country for professional reasons etc.).
Environ 600 millions de Chinois vivent aujourd'hui dans une ville, soit « seulement » 45 % de la population totale du pays, contre 80 %, par exemple, aux États-Unis. Or, les villes chinoises devraient se préparer à accueillir 325 millions d'habitants en plus à l'horizon 2025, et un milliard en tout en 2030, selon une étude du McKinsey Global Institute. Si les villes se sont développées jusqu'à présent principalement par expansion, en absorbant des villes et des terres avoisinantes, 70 ...
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Will France have to resort to immigration to meet its labour needs in certain sectors currently experiencing recruitment problems? Does it already have to do so? This is a solution that is frequently advanced when the possibility of labour shortages is mentioned - for example in the building sector, hotels and catering or personal services. Yet, as Alain Parant tells us here, the demographic situation shows that the country does not have a shortage of labour but, on the contrary, a dearth of jobs. Parant outlines the position of France where employment rates are concerned (i.e. the proportion of the working-age population who actually have a job) in comparison to the other leading developed countries. That position is rather poor, and it is even worse where young people and "seniors" are concerned. Such low unemployment rates show that France today has a very substantial reserve of labour. Drawing on demographic projections, Alain Parant shows that this reserve of labour should not dry up - far from it - before the year 2050. And even if French underemployment is accompanied by sectoral labour shortages, as is already the case today, the solution, he says, lies not in selective immigration (the British model doesn't have all the answers...), but in an effort to anticipate labour-market needs and the skills required to meet them.
The demographic dynamic in France today is largely a product of the migration flows affecting the country. But these flows are not the same over the whole national territory: some regions receive greater inflows of immigrants than average, while others are barely involved. The impact of these migration flows on local development is not uniform either, as Gérard-François Dumont shows here.
After briefly reviewing the two main approaches to the analysis of foreign immigration and its consequences on territorial development (source of wealth vs. budgetary burden), Dumont offers a detailed region-by-region analysis of foreign immigration in France, covering such aspects as the share of regional migration, the changes to flow-patterns, the proportion of immigrants in the active population, the unemployment rate for foreign nationals of working age, the pivotal role of the Île-de-France region etc. He also analyses the - very variable - economic effects of the presence of this foreign population, taking two distinct aspects into account: the legal criterion (nationality) and the geographical criterion (origin of the immigrants, whether or not they have acquired French nationality) and studies the relations between immigration and unemployment more closely (identifying "four different Frances" here). These findings show that the effects of immigration on local development vary as a function of two distinct geographical criteria: the geographical origins of the individuals and the particular area in which they settle.
This European column forms part of the extensive special dossier on migration issues in this summer issue. Jean-François Drevet begins by recalling the importance of immigration to the European Union in a context of ageing populations. He goes on to stress the extent to which international migration in Europe is both poorly understood, badly measured and ineffectively controlled, before detailing more precisely the Union's immigration policy, its evolution and the prospects for its future development, the ambition being to make it a fully-fledged community policy by 2014. Lastly, he shows that an immigration policy can neither leave out of account cooperation with the migrants' countries of origin, nor choose to overlook human rights questions. Here, Jean-François Drevet concludes that there is a danger today, that European policy will develop as national policies have done in Europe, bringing heightened repression without genuine effectiveness.
In July 2007, the European Union adopted a number of principles aimed at harmonizing European statistics on migration flows. Unfortunately, it is likely to take quite some time to put theory into practice in this area, given the enormous differences between the statistical systems of the member states.
By way of comparisons between various European countries (France, Netherlands, Sweden, Denmark and Norway), Michèle Tribalat shows here how much the methods and definitions used to measure migration phenomena differ, and hence how difficult it is to make such comparisons or, indeed, to evaluate the demographic effects of foreign immigration.
To begin with, she shows, for example, that "net migration change", as calculated in France, is not a reliable indicator and does not reflect actual developments. Hence the desirability of going further and examining the demographic effects of alien immigration, covering not only the direct contribution to the population of a country, but also the indirect (descendants). It is, without a doubt, the assessment of this contribution that is likely to make European statistical harmonization very complicated. The definitions employed in the various countries mean that some mix the generations, some take no account of the mobility of nationals (as a result of which their children born abroad become persons of foreign origin!), and some leave the colonial past out the reckoning etc. In short, if we are to measure migration phenomena in Europe effectively and on a comparable footing, it is imperative, above all, that we develop a precise definition of what we are aiming to measure (and this article sheds important light on this question), in order that the various countries may equip themselves with the proper means of measurement (France has a long way to go to do this).
L’exposé est centré sur la hausse des prix des produits agricoles et la sécurité alimentaire. Il s’appuie sur deux documents qui en constituent la toile de fond : — Le modèle économique « Oléosim » : analyse structurelle du marché international des produits de grande culture, basé sur les oléagineux et sur toutes les grandes productions végétales. — L’exercice de prospective « INRA 2013 », fait en parallèle avec le modèle Oléosim, simule les conséquences de l’adaptation de la Politique Agricole Commune aux décisions ...
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Une co-production Arte France / mano a mano / Futuribles International Dans vingt-cinq ans, la planète abritera huit milliards d'êtres humains. Une analyse de l'explosion démographique en cours qui bouleversera la carte du monde. "Sur un plateau virtuel et dans une mise en forme très réussie, deux heures de prospective passionnantes, denses et claires qui stimulent la réflexion critique." Tele Cable Satellite Hebdo 6,5 milliards d'hommes sur Terre aujourd'hui, 8 milliards en 2030 ; une Europe en panne ...
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La Bibliographie prospective du mois de juin 2008 consacre son Focus au rapport annuel du CIHEAM (Centre international de hautes études agronomiques méditerrannéennes), intitulé Mediterra 2008. Les futurs agricoles et alimentaires en Méditerranée. Cet ouvrage présente les grands défis - à la fois hydraulique, démographique et technique - auxquels est confronté le monde méditerranéen, et quatre scénarios d'avenir possibles, du laisser-aller à la mobilisation des politiques. Vous trouverez par ailleurs, et comme chaque mois, une sélection de comptes rendus de livres ...
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Depuis la fin des années 1990, les Français se félicitent régulièrement d'une situation de forte fécondité (par rapport à la plupart des pays européens). Alain Parant en explique dans cette note la cause principale : les taux de fécondité ont cessé de baisser au début de la vie féconde des femmes tout en continuant d'augmenter après 30 ans. Attention néanmoins à ne pas considérer cette évolution comme définitivement acquise ! En 2007, des résultats encore provisoires font état d'une ...
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As part of the special dossier in this issue on the geopolitical consequences of climate change, we publish here an article on migration linked to climatic phenomena. Drawing on the leading international studies in the field, Étienne Piguet shows the extent to which climate change could give rise to population movements.
Reminding us that this is a theme that has received relatively little attention, he begins by defining the concept closely and underlining the importance of terminology in this field. For example, these migrations will be spoken of as "environmentally induced population movements" rather than as movements of "environmental refugees" - to avoid, among other things, falling foul of the legal regime on refugees as currently defined by the United Nations. He goes on to show what the migratory consequences of global warming might be, as exemplified in three major types of climatic event: storms and floods, droughts and water shortages and, lastly, rises in sea level. As he stresses, this latter phenomenon is probably the only one that would give rise to irreversible migrations (in the other cases, the migrants would generally end up returning to their regions of origin), but it is likely to affect at least 146 million people, if not indeed four times that figure, depending on the time horizon considered.
As Piguet reminds us in his concluding remarks, since it is for the moment mainly the industrialized countries that are responsible for the carbon dioxide emissions which are bringing about climate change, it will be difficult for them to wash their hands of responsibility for these potential climate refugees. It is important, then, to gauge the extent of the problem and develop the resources - particularly the preventive resources - to meet it (e.g. combatting global warming, investing in suitable infrastructure, such as protective sea-walls etc.).
Jean-Joseph Boillot a tout d’abord justifié le choix d’une étude de l’Inde à l’horizon 2025, qui lui paraît être une base de travail raisonnable compte tenu du cycle d’un investissement commercial (compris entre 5 et 15 ans) et, plus subjectivement, parce que cette date ne semble pas trop éloignée.
Le Vietnam est un pays dont on a beaucoup parlé par le passé pour des raisons historiques mais que l’on mentionne peu actuellement. En effet, c’est un pays très pauvre, au PIB (produit intérieur brut) de 63 milliards de dollars US, soit 3 % du PIB français, mais dont la croissance économique est forte et régulière puisqu’elle atteint depuis plus de 15 ans 7,5 % par an en moyenne. Ce pays est donc loin d’être déjà un ...
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La France reste en pointe de l'Union européenne pour la fécondité et l'espérance de vie des femmes. Elle se distingue aussi par la part élevée du solde naturel dans la croissance totale de la population
Late 2006 saw the publication of an important work on the life of immigrants in France, L'Enracinement. Enquête sur le vieillissement des immigrés en France (Paris: Armand Colin, October 2006), by Claudine Attias-Donfut, which describes the ageing and life-cycles of long-term foreign residents in France. Based on an extensive survey, the first of its kind in France, on immigrants entering retirement and on their life-courses (carried out by the National Retirement Insurance Authority), the book broaches many questions that are essential to grasping the situation of these populations and their integration, including economic activity, standard of living, occupational integration, social networks, health, inter-generational solidarities, religion, financial transfers etc.
Immigration is a developmental process and can be properly understood in detail only in historical perspective and over time - the time it takes for people to put down roots by starting a family, building a career and social networks etc. This is why this book is important, taking as it does a long-term view of France's immigrants. Hedva Sarfati draws the main lessons from a study which, at least partially, makes up for the painful lack of data in this area in France.
Le vieillissement affecte l'Union européenne, les pays développés mais aussi tout le reste du monde. C'est à l'échelle mondiale que se posent les questions relatives au vieillissement de la population et aux personnes âgées. Elles ont occupé une place de premier plan lors des trois grandes conférences internationales sur la population organisées par les Nations unies au cours des 25 dernières années. La Division de la population de l'ONU étudie ces phénomènes par des estimations et ...
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Having surveyed trends in the values of Scandinavian youth for more than 10 years, Kairos Future has extended its field of study to the youth of 17 - mostly European - countries. In this article, the authors present the broad conclusions of that study of European youth within the contemporary international context. They stress the fact that the characteristics observed may not perhaps be peculiar to this period of life (the "life-cycle" effect), but could herald longer-term developments in ways of life, consumption patterns or modes of working.
After reviewing general tendencies in the development of values in Europe, the authors present the current dominant trends in young Europeans' life choices. These include greater significance accorded to personal fulfilment, and the increased importance of status, money and celebrity. Specifying the features peculiar to each nation, the authors go on to develop the following themes: the development of the work-life balance, the interest in study and entrepreneurship, the desire to start a family, young people's optimism about their futures, increasing individualism against a background of international concerns (with respect, for example, to the environment), etc.
Lastly, they analyse elements that indicate a common identity among young people at the European, Asian and world levels. Such elements definitely exist, but doubtless not yet to a sufficient degree to speak of the existence of a European, Asian or global youth identity.
Ce chapitre est extrait du Rapport Vigie 2016 de Futuribles International, qui propose un panorama structuré des connaissances et des incertitudes des experts que l'association a mobilisés pour explorer les évolutions des 15 à 35 prochaines années sur 11 thématiques.