Institutions

Cette page regroupe l'ensemble des publications de Futuribles sur cette thématique (Vigie, revue, bibliographie, études, etc.)

Tribune européenne

Entreprises, travail - Géopolitique - Institutions

External Policy: Impotent Europe – The Battle for a European Military Headquarters

With the economic and financial crisis on the one hand, and the regional instability caused by the Arab spring on the southern rim of the Mediterranean on the other, Europe finds itself faced with a particularly tricky geopolitical and economic context. Unfortunately, as Jean-François Drevet shows here, the more serious the situation has become, the less the member states of the European Union have provided themselves with the means to confront it jointly and hence, the lower their chances of success would seem to be.
This is attested, in particular, by the Union’s inability to establish a single command structure to manage the operations planned as part of the common defence and security policy, despite the fact that there is a consensus on this in public opinion in the various member states. Whereas the Union has, in theory, an adequate legal basis in this area and the political and technical means to implement it (through the High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy), in practice the member states continue to reason on a case-by-case basis in terms of their own interests. Europe is, in fact, very ill-equipped. It cannot depend indefinitely on the Atlantic Alliance to provide its defence and its options are seriously hobbled by the United Kingdom (of which the High Representative, who is supposed to embody the common external policy, is a national).
Above and beyond the concrete security problems potentially present in such a situation, this impasse is emblematic of the current operation of the Union, “dominated by the vagaries of a variable-geometry intergovernmental cooperation” that is still not properly facing up to present and future challenges.

Editorial

Géopolitique - Institutions

Haute tension en Méditerranée

Qu’adviendra-t-il de la région méditerranéenne et des relations de l’Europe avec les pays du Sud et de l’Est méditerranéens (PSEM) après ce que l’on désigne comme « le printemps arabe », terme générique recouvrant des évolutions sociopolitiques sans doute différentes d’un pays à l’autre ? Nul assurément n’est à même de prévoir ce qui résultera du renversement en Tunisie du régime de Zine el-Abidine Ben Ali, en Égypte de celui de Hosni Moubarak, a fortiori de ...

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Note de veille

Institutions - Société, modes de vie

La Chine se convertit au vélo électrique

Alors que les pays européens tergiversent sur les bénéfices à attendre des véhicules électriques, en Chine, ce marché se développe rapidement. Mais, là-bas, le véhicule électrique est synonyme de deux-roues et pas d’automobile. Ce type de véhicule est en effet moins coûteux et moins compliqué à fabriquer, et répond aux contraintes croissantes posées par les autorités locales.

Rapport étude

Institutions - Territoires, réseaux

Prospective de la mobilité dans les villes moyennes françaises

L’association Futuribles International, en association avec l’INRETS (Institut national de recherche sur les transports et leur sécurité), devenu récemment l’IFSTTAR (Institut français des sciences et technologies des transports, de l’aménagement et des réseaux), a mené une réflexion prospective sur la mobilité dans les villes moyennes françaises à l’horizon 2030 avec le soutien et le concours de 12 organisations partenaires. L’objectif de cette étude est d’éclairer les futurs possibles de l’offre de mobilité ...

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Rapport étude

Institutions - Territoires, réseaux

Catalogue d’innovations de l’étude en souscription “Prospective de la mobilité dans les villes moyennes françaises”

Ce catalogue d’innovations a été élaboré dans le cadre d’une étude en souscription lancée par Futuribles International et le LVMT sur la « prospective de la mobilité dans les villes moyennes françaises ». Ce document est composé de deux parties. La première dresse un état des lieux bibliographique des systèmes de transport intermédiaires entre la voiture personnelle et les transports en communs massifiés (bus, tramway). Ceci dans un double objectif : préciser les termes et éclairer les différences entre le transport ...

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Note de veille

Institutions - Santé - Société, modes de vie - Territoires, réseaux

Les États-Unis en guerre contre les food deserts

Aux États-Unis, la lutte contre la malbouffe et l’obésité est devenue l’une des priorités du gouvernement. Symboles des inégalités d’accès à une alimentation saine, les food deserts, ou déserts alimentaires, sont l’objet de nombreuses études et d’autant de controverses.

Revue

Éducation - Institutions

The Reform of Education Systems: Nothing More to Learn?

In this back-to-school period, it is always of interest to enquire into the performance of education systems (which can be measured by international comparisons of the systems themselves or of the competences of the pupils) and how to improve them. Charles du Granrut, drawing on two recent reports (by the OECD and McKinsey) on the performance of education systems and successful educational reforms, raises some points for consideration in this field.
After discussing pupils in difficulty, whose results are a key element for explaining the performance of education systems, he stresses that all systems can improve, whatever the initial level of pupils, the geographical or cultural context or the resources allocated. For them to do so, it is, however, essential among other things to have rigorous assessments of the performance of all the actors (pupils, teachers and schools); to establish precise, ambitious curricula; to promote the autonomy of teachers and schools; and to make them responsible, in turn, for their actions...

Revue

Institutions - Territoires, réseaux

Towards New Inter-territorial Regulations: A Foresight Study of Territorial Reform in France

In late 2010, the French parliament passed a new law reforming territorial organization, following an (umpteenth) government-sponsored debate. The implementation of this reform is to be staggered up to late 2014. Given the time that will elapse before it is fully implemented, it is not yet possible to assess its effects concretely, but it is improbable, judging from this article, that it will produce a genuine simplification of the territorial organization of France, even though such a simplification is regularly advocated and clearly very necessary. Hence the importance of continued foresight thinking on the subject.
This is what Martin Vanier and Pierre-Jean Lorens propose here, on the basis of what they call “the inter-territorial hypothesis”, which consists in thinking not in terms of institutional and decisional levels or fields of jurisdiction, but in terms of active links that can be established between all the existing levels of territorial authority and jurisdiction. The point is to attempt to determine the system which might, over a period of one or two decades, link together all French levels of authority. To do so, the authors present the results of thinking and studies to which they have contributed in recent years, and the four scenarios that have come out of their exploratory territorial foresight study, entitled: “the Metropolises, New Territorial Powers”, “the Regions, Major Implementers of Inter-territoriality”, “Low Intensity Inter-territoriality” and “Networks, Masters of Territories”. So many lines of thinking that will, without doubt, fuel future debates on a recurrent and crucial subject, both nationally and from a European perspective.

Revue

Géopolitique - Institutions

The Long March of the World: On Philip Bobbitt’s The Shield of Achilles

In 2002 a monumental work by Philip Bobbitt, covering international relations over a very extensive period, was published simultaneously in the USA and the UK. The Shield of Achilles: War, Peace and the Course of History (New York/London: Alfred A. Knopf/Penguin Books, 2002) has not been translated into French. However, in the opinion of Jacques Lesourne, who has reviewed the book for Futuribles, it provides a very rewarding analysis of the relations between military strategy, the development of state-forms and the principles governing international relations. Beyond the retrospective deciphering of the long history of the world offered by Bobbitt (including, inter alia, the “epochal wars” that have studded the path of the elaboration of international law), the work offers a forward-looking perspective on the contemporary world’s broad developmental trends, developing three possible scenarios. Jacques Lesourne outlines these at the end of his analysis, showing ultimately that, in spite of a certain Americano-centrism, Bobbitt’s work is an important contribution to the analysis of the joint influences of state, military strategy and international relations, which is crucial for the assessment of future trends on the global stage.

Note de veille

Éducation - Institutions

Enseignement supérieur : la tendance est à la hausse des frais de scolarité

Depuis les années 1980 et la massification de l’enseignement supérieur, les frais de scolarité des établissements d’enseignement supérieur ont tendance à augmenter dans la plupart des pays du monde, en dépit de situations très variées. La crise de 2008, qui limite les ressources publiques, et la mobilité internationale accrue, qui met en concurrence les établissements, devraient intensifier ce phénomène. Cette hausse des frais suscite de véhémentes protestations de la part des étudiants et des controverses sur les modèles ...

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Note de veille

Institutions - Santé

La réanimation néonatale : quelles conséquences et quelles limites ?

La médecine néonatale a fait des progrès considérables dans la prise en charge des prématurés, permettant de reculer toujours plus le seuil du terme de la prise en charge. Ainsi dans les années 1970, un prématuré pesant entre 500 et 750 grammes à la naissance n’avait aucune chance de survie, alors qu’il en avait 27 % à 63 % en 1995 . Cependant, cette possibilité accrue de survie s’accompagne bien souvent de conséquences lourdes pour l’enfant, ce qui soulève ...

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Note de veille

Économie, emploi - Institutions

Comment les États-Unis peuvent-ils résoudre la crise de la dette souveraine ?

En avril 2011, l’agence de notation financière Standard and Poor’s a menacé les États-Unis de dégrader la note relative à leur dette souveraine si des améliorations dans la gestion des finances publiques n’étaient pas visibles à l’horizon 2012. La dette publique américaine s’élève à 9 700 milliards de dollars, soit 92,3 % du PIB (produit intérieur brut). Quatre mécanismes principaux peuvent contrer le phénomène : une croissance forte et rapide, un défaut temporaire de paiement, une ...

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Note de veille

Géopolitique - Institutions

Réforme constitutionnelle au Maroc : quelles perspectives ?

Le 1er juillet 2011, les Marocains ont approuvé par référendum le projet de constitution qui leur était proposé. Cette réforme constitutionnelle se veut une réponse aux mécontentements qui s’expriment au Maroc depuis plusieurs mois. Il est cependant fort probable qu’elle ne suffise pas à mettre fin aux revendications.

Tribune européenne

Institutions - Ressources naturelles, énergie, environnement

Europe and its Energy Objectives

Chiming in with the central theme of this summer issue, in this article Jean-François Drevet provides a presentation of the main aims of EU policy in the field of energy. After reminding us that there is, strictly speaking, no common energy policy in Europe, he outlines the four major challenges confronting the Union in this area: energy savings, the production of renewable energy (with the declared aim of covering 20% of final consumption from renewable sources by 2020), the reduction of greenhouse gas emissions (for which the declared targets are particularly ambitious) and, lastly, problems of energy security (particularly, the question of energy supplies to those countries most dependent on external provision). In all these fields it is, once again, the strength of a united community that can make the difference, though this presents another substantial challenge, given the increasing distrust of consumers, who tend to ascribe recent energy price increases to market liberalization brought about in recent years under the aegis of the EU.

Note de veille

Institutions - Population

Problématique urbaine de la dynamique démographique : le défi urbain et les services en Afrique subsaharienne

Alors que la croissance démographique de l’Afrique subsaharienne avait stagné jusqu’à la fin du XIXe siècle (suite notamment aux conséquences de la traite des esclaves et aux chocs de la colonisation), sa population est estimée, en 2010, à 410 millions d’habitants et va atteindre 530 millions d’habitants en 2020 . Elle n’en comptait que 90 millions en 1950. Cette forte dynamique démographique s’est accompagnée d’un lent mais puissant mouvement d’urbanisation, notamment entre 1960 ...

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Note de veille

Institutions - Société, modes de vie

Mesurer le bonheur intérieur brut

En mai 2011, l’OCDE (Organisation de coopération et de développement économiques) a dévoilé un nouvel indice, « vivre mieux », destiné à mesurer le bien-être des individus et les progrès des pays en la matière. Une initiative qui marque la volonté de l’organisation de proposer des indicateurs de développement alternatifs au PIB (produit intérieur brut).

Analyse prospective

Institutions - Société, modes de vie - Territoires, réseaux

Les espaces publics : perceptions et attentes

Les espaces publics campent en bonne place des réflexions théoriques et pratiques sur l’urbain contemporain. Il en va de grandes constructions philosophiques sur la démocratie, comme de réalisations très pratiques sur l’aménagement des villes. Mais que pensent les habitants d’un tel sujet ? Son niveau d’abstraction appelle des simplifications pour bien savoir de quoi l’on parle. D’une enquête originale, menée auprès de 4 000 citadins européens (à Barcelone, Hambourg, Londres et Paris), il ressort très ...

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Bibliography

Institutions

Le service public en 2030

La revue Acteurs publics a consacré cet été un numéro spécial à l’avenir du service public français. Un premier article s’intéresse à Singapour, dont les services publics sont jugés précurseurs : les fonctionnaires sont recrutés parmi les meilleurs étudiants, sont très bien payés et bénéficient de 100 heures de formation continue par an. L’administration en ligne est très développée, et permet à tous les habitants d’accéder à de nombreuses informations pratiques sur Internet. Les journalistes du magazine ...

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Futurs d'antan

Entreprises, travail - Institutions - Recherche, sciences, techniques

Science and the Rebirth of Europe: The View of André Danzin in 1979 (Future of Yesteryear)

We have on many occasions sounded the alarm in Futuribles regarding the situation of France and Europe, where economies have been under par for more than 30 years now and unable to sustain the pace of innovation appropriate for developed countries in the context of the early 21st century. We have, admittedly, seen attempts to re-stimulate these economies, no doubt the most emblematic of these in the recent period being the “Lisbon Strategy”, launched in March 2000, whose main objective was to make the European Union “the most competitive, most dynamic knowledge economy in the world” by 2010. But we are now in mid-2011 and the least that can be said is that the objective is some way from being fulfilled. And, re-reading the diagnosis and recommendations of André Danzin in 1979 (Science et renaissance de l’Europe. Paris: Chotard et associés, 1979), there is reason for concern about the Old Continent’s capacity to face up to the scientific and technical challenges of the present and – most importantly – of the future.

Pierre Bonnaure has re-read the book André Danzin wrote in 1979 following a request from the European Commission that he formulate suggestions for using science and technology to re-stimulate Europe. After recalling the context of the late 1970s, Pierre Bonnaure shows here how Danzin’s findings are still topical (Europe falling behind in global competition and failing to innovate). He takes up again the various recommendations formulated at the time which, in many people’s view, still have currency (focussing on high-value-added activities, playing the card of the energy-efficient, environmentally-friendly sectors, investing in information technology and the eco-life sciences). And though some of these – particularly in the area of research organization in Europe – have been implemented in the three decades since Danzin’s work appeared, we must admit that Europeans are still awaiting the “rebirth of Europe” and, if things are left too long, it will no longer be possible to draw on these recommendations to contribute to it.

Tribune européenne

Géopolitique - Institutions

Towards a New Euro-Mediterranean Policy?

In many Arab countries (Egypt, Tunisia, Libya, Syria, Yemen etc.), the early months of 2011 saw a broad wave of protest on the part of civil populations against their rulers, with significant changes ensuing at the head of several states. Given the relations that have long been maintained with these countries by the members of the European Union, “the Arab spring” (which might well run into summer, if not beyond, in certain countries) will have consequences for EU foreign policy. Jean-François Drevet has already mentioned a number of these in last month’s European column. He takes these thoughts further here, studying more precisely how Euro-Mediterranean policy might evolve in this new context. After going back over the genesis of that policy, he examines its medium-term prospects in two key fields: expansion and the European neighbourhood policy. He stresses, lastly, the two pressing short-term issues that will almost certainly divide the European Union: the management of the migratory flows triggered by the current revolts and the challenge posed by higher oil prices.

Forum

Géopolitique - Institutions

Elections in Turkey: the Issues?

Legislative elections in Turkey will be held in mid-June 2011. In this article Didier Billion and Bastien Alex present the political context, the parties in contention and the main issues involved. They remind us of the process of democratization that has been underway since the AKP (“Justice and Development Party”, the majority Islamic party since 2002) has been in power, against a background of polarizing tensions with the army (which has traditionally underpinned secularism and the Kemalist principles on which the Turkish republic has been based since its creation in 1923). They stress also the weakening of the political role of the military and the deep rootedness of the AKP in Turkish society. And, in spite of the substantial debates driving the electoral campaign (on constitutional reform or the question of membership of the European Union, for example), June’s ballot should, barring surprises, end with the AKP being re-elected as the Turkish government.

It remains to be seen, among other things, whether, on the one hand – given something of a move to the radical right in its discourse and certain actions that pose questions about the respect for human rights within the country – the AKP will continue the process it has initiated for meeting European demands for democratization and, on the other, the Turks will maintain their resolve to join a European Union that is currently trying their patience in the “antechamber” to accession.

Note de veille

Économie, emploi - Institutions

Légaliser la drogue pour réduire la dette publique… et la consommation de drogue

Selon des chercheurs du Cato Institute, la légalisation de la drogue aux États-Unis permettrait d’augmenter les recettes du gouvernement de 88 milliards de dollars US par an grâce à la suppression de certaines dépenses liées à la drogue (police, armée, justice…) et à la mise en place d’un système de taxation. Les États-Unis font aujourd’hui partie des pays les plus répressifs dans ce domaine : la dépénalisation, déjà expérimentée au Portugal depuis 2001, pourrait être une étape intermédiaire.

Revue

Économie, emploi - Éducation - Entreprises, travail - Institutions - Société, modes de vie - Territoires, réseaux

France 2030: Four Scenarios

Each year, within the framework of its “Vigie” pooled horizon-scanning system, the Futuribles International Association publishes a report surveying the long-term and emergent trends in the strategic environment of companies and organizations over the next 10-20 years, which complements the work done over the course of the year. The Rapport Vigie 2011, published in late December 2010, offers a foresight analysis of seven key issues, before going on to propose four scenarios for France in the years to 2030.

Cécile Désaunay and François de Jouvenel, who made very major contributions to the production of this report (available in its entirety only to partner-members of Futuribles International), offer a summary in this article of these four scenarios relating to France in 2030: “Competitiveness and Social Responsibility of Companies”, “Dual Society”, “Broad Middle Class” and “Local Economy”. As in all exploratory foresight studies, the authors do not favour any of the scenarios in particular, the four of them enabling the reader to form an idea of the various possible trajectories for France and the French over the next 20 years.

For the moment, all options remain open. It is for the decision-makers to bend their policies in the direction required by their preferred scenario and for public opinion to tell its representatives clearly which future seems most desirable.

Forum

Économie, emploi - Institutions - Société, modes de vie

Market Fetishism: On Alain Supiot’s Book, L’Esprit de Philadelphie [The Spirit of Philadelphia]

In a book published in 2010, L’Esprit de Philadelphie. La justice sociale face au marché total [The Spirit of Philadelphia. Social Justice versus the Total Market] (Paris: Seuil, 2010), Alain Supiot, Ph.D. in law and, among other things, Director of the Institute of Advanced Study at Nantes, takes issue with the growing tendency to regard “total marketization” and economic globalization as realities that cannot be checked or curbed, even though it is clear that they increasingly run counter to what social justice ought to demand. This faith in the infallibility of the market has, he argues, led to the subordination of human beings to the market, whereas originally the market predominantly served human needs. The result of this has been, in his view, a growing number of victims or losers in the present economic order. Rejecting this line of development, Alain Supiot calls in L’Esprit de Philadelphie for a return to the principles laid down in 1944 in the ILO Declaration of Philadelphia, which sought to put the notion of social justice – and thereby of humanity – back at the heart of our economic system. Hedva Sarfati, who has read the book for Futuribles, outlines its main points for us here.

Revue

Institutions - Santé

Hospitalization in the case of Infectious Diseases

“Infectious diseases are part of human life,” stress Didier Raoult and Jean-Paul Segade in this article. When some disappear, thanks to antibiotics or vaccination, others emerge in new forms. After plague and cholera, human beings must do battle today not only with HIV/AIDS, but also with respiratory infections and acute diarrhoea, two forms of particularly epidemic infectious diseases.

Raoult and Segade are insistent, then, that the question of special care for these contagious patients is unavoidable today (hospitalization in specialist departments, in individual rooms, with vaccinated, sensitized staff etc.), particularly as two new epidemics have been developing for some years: the so-called “hospital infections” (linked to the development of multiresistant bacteria) and “imported” epidemics (chikungunya, avian flu, staphylococcus aureus etc.).

In this context, and with the aim of limiting the spread of these diseases, Didier Raoult and Jean-Paul Segade formulate a number of lines of thinking here, particularly in relation to hospital organization.

Chapitre Institutions

Ce chapitre est extrait du Rapport Vigie 2016 de Futuribles International, qui propose un panorama structuré des connaissances et des incertitudes des experts que l'association a mobilisés pour explorer les évolutions des 15 à 35 prochaines années sur 11 thématiques.