Institutions

Cette page regroupe l'ensemble des publications de Futuribles sur cette thématique (Vigie, revue, bibliographie, études, etc.)

Bibliography

Institutions

L’Économie est une science morale

L'auteur des deux essais rassemblés dans cet ouvrage est l'économiste indien qui a obtenu le prix Nobel en octobre 1998 ; lauréat improbable, comme l'ont souligné les agences de presse. Amartya Sen, en effet, est un spécialiste reconnu des questions de développement, en même temps qu'un philosophe et un humaniste attaché à mettre en relation valeur éthique et raisonnement économique. Ses travaux sur la famine et la grande pauvreté, son affiliation à la tradition radicalement égalitaire du ...

(550 more words)

Bibliography

Institutions - Population - Santé

Health Care 2020. The Coming Collapse of Employer-Provided Health Care

Les baby boomers, nés entre 1946 et 1964, constituent la génération la plus nombreuse de l'histoire des États-Unis. En 2020, 76 millions d'américains auront atteint 70 ans, et exigeront de lourdes dépenses de santé (20 à 25 % du PIB selon les auteurs). Cette évolution démographique inéluctable représente un véritable défi à la politique sociale. Le choc qui pourrait en résulter, si rien n'est fait pour le prévenir, serait comparable à l'impact des chocs pétroliers des années ...

(388 more words)

Bibliography

Économie, emploi - Institutions

Comprendre les États-Unis d’aujourd’hui

Professeur à la Sorbonne, enseignant l'histoire de l'Amérique du Nord à l'Université de Paris I, André Kaspi admet que les États-Unis fascinent et irritent en même temps, mais il voudrait que les Français comprennent mieux la dernière superpuissance de ce siècle. Il nous convie donc à une visite guidée, passant en revue la puissance militaire sans égale mais bridée par le souci de ne pas risquer la vie des combattants, la diplomatie hésitante mais pragmatique, qui donne ...

(322 more words)

Bibliography

Géopolitique - Institutions

La Privatisation des États

Publié sous la direction de Béatrice Hibou, dans la collection « Recherches internationales » du CERI (Centre d'études et de recherches internationales), cet ouvrage collectif examine les processus de privatisation en cours dans le monde, processus qui ne se cantonnent pas seulement au domaine des entreprises mais concernent dans certains pays les services publics, les ressources économiques (appropriation et exploitation privées des forêts, minerais et pierres précieuses) et même certaines fonctions régaliennes de l'État telles que la fiscalité ou encore ...

(282 more words)

Bibliography

Institutions

Umbau statt Abbau. Sozialstaaten im Vergleich. Deutschland, Osterreich, Schweden

Lothar Liss, sociologue du travail proche du DGB (fédération des syndicats allemands) et Josef Wöss de la Chambre des travailleurs et des employés de Vienne se sont livrés à une comparaison minutieuse des niveaux de prestations, des moyens de financement et des priorités des systèmes sociaux de la Suède, de l'Allemagne et de l'Autriche. Les similitudes sont nombreuses, mais il existe aussi des différences considérables. Alors que les systèmes sociaux allemand et autrichien sont centrés sur les revenus ...

(108 more words)

Bibliography

Institutions - Territoires, réseaux

Comment sortir du libéralisme ?

Dans son trente-quatrième ouvrage, le sociologue Alain Touraine appelle au retour de la politique, qui prend trop facilement prétexte de la mondialisation et de la construction européenne pour justifier son impuissance. Il faut refonder la politique en tenant compte des réalités de l'économie et des marchés, mais aussi des changements radicaux intervenus dans la société (voir, du même auteur Pourrons-nous vivre ensemble ? Égaux et différents de 1997). Le rôle de l'État est devenu plus étroit et délicat, mais ...

(148 more words)

Bibliography

Institutions - Santé

Les Habits neufs d’Hippocrate. Du médecin artisan au médecin ingénieur

Claude Béraud rend compte ici de deux ouvrages récents sur l'(in)organisation et les dysfonctionnements du « système de soins » français : celui de Jean de Kervasdoué, Santé : pour une révolution sans réforme, (Paris : Gallimard, 1999, 198 p.), qui porte essentiellement sur les défauts et dysfonctionnements du système; celui de Claude Le Pen, Les Habits neufs d'Hippocrate : du médecin artisan au médecin ingénieur (Paris : Calmann-Lévy, 1999, 262 p.), qui montre la nécessaire mais encore imperceptible évolution des comportements des médecins ...

(129 more words)

Bibliography

Institutions - Population

Seniors : l’explosion

Ce livre riche, vivant et synthétique fait le tour de ce que sont et seront, en particulier en France, les nouveaux « vieux » (qui préfèrent naturellement s'entendre appeler « seniors » ou « retraités »), de ce qu'ils font, et des enjeux majeurs qu'ils soulèvent en tant que groupe démographique appelé à dominer (sinon positivement, du moins négativement) le XXIe siècle. Dans la confusion qui accompagne aujourd'hui les propos de tous bords tenus sur l'avenir et, le cas échéant, la ...

(415 more words)

Forum

Économie, emploi - Entreprises, travail - Institutions

Deux propositions des responsables de personnel

The Aubry Laws: Two Suggestions of Personnel Managers
The National Association of Personnel Directors and Officers (ANDCP) has created a working group on the 35-hour laws. The group has issued a statement since the discussion in the National Assembly of the Aubry laws.
They give us here their analysis of the first law (June1998) and of the problems it was supposed to address. They also reveal their point of view on the second law, which should be passed between now and the end of 1999

Revue

Économie, emploi - Institutions

La réduction du temps de travail : questions en supsens

The Reduction of Working Time : Outstanding Questions
When it passed a first law of "orientation and incitement" in June 1998, the French Government also announced its intention to adopt a second one before the end of 1999, to deal with issues which remained outstanding.
According to Dominique Taddéi, this second law should address five major challenges :
- the first concerns overtime, which in France was the equivalent of 230,000 full time jobs in 1997. Overtime should be kept as it is for a while, regardless of the reduction to a 35-hour week, and should then be replaced by compensatory time off instead of remuneration in money;
- the second is to maintain monthly income at the minimum wage level (SMIC) by increasing hourly pay with the help of the State;
- the third challenge will be the actual reduction of working time to the legal 35 hours, to assure that the re-structuring assistance provided by the state is given only in proportion to the amount of time that is actually reduced;
- the fourth challenge concerns respect for the new time limits. This will require, according to the author, a reinforcement of union power, and even more likely, of the power of work inspectors;
- finally, assurance should be provided that part-time work, which today is often restricted, also becomes a matter of flexible choice.

Revue

Institutions - Société, modes de vie

Le compte à rebours. À propos du livre de François de Closets

Journaliste, essayiste et animateur télévisuel, François de Closets mène depuis trente ans une croisade contre les rigidités, mensonges et petites combines qui conduisent la France à l'abîme. Sorte de compendium de la douzaine d'ouvrages précédents, Le compte à rebours nous avertit qu'une machine infernale s'est mise en marche, que le temps nous est désormais compté, que l'heure de la lucidité et des réformes douloureuses a sonné.

Revue

Institutions - Recherche, sciences, techniques - Société, modes de vie

La science et ses malaises

Science and Uneasiness
Jean-Jacques Salomon shares with us some thoughts inspired by his reading of recent books on the issues of 1) science and its ambiguous relationship with the State, the public and, therefore, the media, and 2) the soul-searching of scientists themselves when they face the ambivalent implications and possible applications of their discoveries.
Salomons analysis was inspired by five books primarily, in which he found a common element of deep uneasiness within the scientific community over its relationship with society at large. The malaise finds expression as laments for the deficit of innovation compared to the efforts expended in scientific research, for the ambivalence of scientific progress and the (potential and real) risks associated with its imperfect mastery. These concerns are felt by scientists as applying to themselves, let alone to the media-driven State and its citizens.

Bibliography

Institutions

Vers une prospective des retraites en France à l’horizon 2030

Même si l'ampleur et le calendrier du phénomène diffèrent d'un pays à l'autre, la France comme tous les pays industrialisés se trouve confrontée à un vieillissement démographique qui sera particulièrement rapide à partir des années 2005-2010. Ce vieillissement risque d'entraîner, à système économique et social inchangé, une forte augmentation de la charge des retraites et des dépenses de santé qui, surtout dans les pays où les systèmes de protection sociale reposent principalement sur la répartition, pourraient ...

(153 more words)

Forum

Institutions

L’avenir de la décentralisation française. Le nouveau clivage « jacobins-girondins « 

The Future of French Decentralisation. The New Jacobin/Girondist division
Reform of French public institutions has the character of being always topical but indefinitely postponed. Jean-Marc Ohnet here recalls projects which are under way, without giving much credence to their early adoption.
As organizer however of the "Decentralization Conference" which was held last year, he shows that a fairly broad consensus, crossing traditional political divisions, seems to be established today in France because of the need for greater decentralization accompanied by reconstruction of local and regional institutions (to create the authority of a town, acknowledge the "country", etc.).
But the Jacobins have not said their last on the subject. And despite the influence which may be exercised by European construction in the matter, the debate has doubtless only just begun, as the desire for in-depth reform is often inversely proportional to the powers held by its protagonists.

Bibliography

Institutions

Quelle sécurité sociale pour le XXIe siècle ?

Cet article se penche sur l'avenir des systèmes de sécurité sociale au travers d'une analyse internationale et transversale. Chantal Euzéby y analyse la pertinence des différents reproches adressés à ces systèmes, en particulier ceux qui les accusent de freiner la compétitivité des entreprises et l'emploi, en raison du poids des charges, et d'affaiblir le dynamisme de l'économie, de par leurs effets dissuasifs sur l'emploi et l'épargne. Elle insiste aussi sur les nouveaux défis ...

(151 more words)

Revue

Économie, emploi - Institutions - Population - Société, modes de vie

L’inéquité des minima sociaux. Le niveau de vie selon la composition des ménages

The Inequity of Poverty Lines. The Standard of Living by Household
Even though the GNP per capita of the members of the EU is among the highest in the world, it had, according to Eurostat, 7 million poor people in 1993. Their proportion relative to the total population may vary from 5% in Denmark to 18% in Greece and Portugal with some 10% in France. All these countries have adopted various measures intended to guarantee the poorest a minimum standard geared to ensure at least their most basic needs. This article by Jacques Bichot and Dominique Marcilhacy describe these minimum standards in France while showing the maze resulting from the layering of measures adopted one after the other without any harmonization.
The authors then undertake a comparison of the standard of living of the households dependent on these minima according to their status: single, couple with or without children, broken down by the age of the children. They can show that the present legislation is paradoxically biased in favour of singles to the detriment of families, especially those who have several children, the more so with teenagers. They strongly denounce this penalization of families which grows with the number of children. They argue in favour on the one hand for the simplification of the current measures and on the other hand for greater equity between households, whatever their statuses.

Revue

Économie, emploi - Institutions

Thaïlande, une crise salutaire ?

Thailand, a Salutary Crisis ?
The West, with the World Bank in lead, has maintained two illusions about a Thai miracle : that it was a triumph of capitalism assisted by good governance. In fact, it rose on a wave of foreign investment which stimulated exports and overheated the economy.
The crisis which unfolded over the summer of 1997 should have been foreseen for three reasons which were overlooked by observers:
- They mistook growth for development. The commercial success of the country obscured its industrial and technological weakness, its shortage of skilled workers, and the degree to which corruption was feeding the speculation.
- They overestimated the process of democratization and allowed themselves to be deceived by appearances: referendums and multi-party elections gave the appearance of change without shifting the groups which held power on the basis of more or less corrupt alliances (especially within the middle classes).
- They didn't understand that the accelerated modernization (frenetic consumerism, for example) challenged traditional values and behaviour and left too little time for a deeper social adaptation.
The crisis, though, however deep it may be, could turn out to be salutary in the long term if Thailand makes effective use of three main political, economic and social assets:
- by virtue of its strategic geographic position in Asia it could play a pivotal role in greater regional trade flows, which should receive a boost from the establishment of a free trade zone in the ASEAN;
- the rise of industrial structures and an entrepreneurial middle class blessed by important investments in education is assurance of real dynamism which will restore confidence;
- finally, the rise of a true middle class to make real pressure for not only economic reform but also for socio-political changes to sanitize a public administration system that has up to now been very corrupt.
S. Boisseau du Rocher and J.C. Simon are being deliberately optimistic. They maintain that artificial growth could be followed by a true dynamic of development and democratization, emerging from a period of adjustment which is certain to be painful for the short term.

Revue

Économie, emploi - Institutions - Recherche, sciences, techniques

Entre le meilleur des mondes et la fin de l’État nation

Between the Best of All Worlds and the End of the Nation State
It has become commonplace to predict the decline of the nation state by pointing to the destructive effect - yet another - of globalization. For the American political scientist Roger Masters the problem is more profound. If one examines the evolution since the 16th century of the practical and theoretical knowledge necessary for the operation of a society, one realizes that the innovations that have simultaneously revolutionized the communication of ideas and the use of contraints have worked at the dawn of modernity in favour of nation states and now to their detriment have made them more and more vulnerable internally and externally. The gulf in knowledge between the elite and the general public tends moreover to widen. This can only foster the impression of an uncontrollable future benefiting extremist doctrines with their soothing certitudes. It is, of course, possible to try to restore stability and predictability by even more systematic recourse to biochemical and genetic technologies, but the "brave new world" which would result would be unbearable in the long term.
Masters has not tried to give any details of this outline of an evil alternative, but we eagerly expect what he means by "proto-Western premodern lifestyle" which is the lesser evil we can hope for in the future.
The author of this article is Professor of Political Science at Dartmouth College, New Hampshire. The essence of his work uses ethology (science of animal behaviour) to shed new light on major issues in political philosophy. In addition he has made a critical translation of Jean-Jacques Rousseau. In June 1997 Futuribles published a review by Jacques Richardson on his most recent book Machiavelli, Leornado and the Science of Power.

Revue

Économie, emploi - Géopolitique - Institutions - Population

L’impact du vieillissement démographique. À propos du rapport de l’OCDE « Le vieillissement dans les pays de l’OCDE « 

The Impact of an Aging Population: Commentary on the OECD Report: "Aging in OECD Countries"
Several recent studies have attempted to forecast the effects of demographic aging, especially on public expenditures for retirement and health.
This article presents and discusses briefly the results of the study by OECD published in 1996 entitled "Demographic Aging in OECD Countries".
Readers will notice that boxes in the text provide the results of another study. This one, directed by Gerard Calot and Jean-Claude Chesnais, uses a different methodology, to isolate the "strict effect" of demographic aging in the European Union towards 2050.

Chapitre Institutions

Ce chapitre est extrait du Rapport Vigie 2016 de Futuribles International, qui propose un panorama structuré des connaissances et des incertitudes des experts que l'association a mobilisés pour explorer les évolutions des 15 à 35 prochaines années sur 11 thématiques.