Institutions

Cette page regroupe l'ensemble des publications de Futuribles sur cette thématique (Vigie, revue, bibliographie, études, etc.)

Revue

Économie, emploi - Entreprises, travail - Institutions - Société, modes de vie

Les services d’aide aux personnes. Diagnostic et et propositions

Véronique Hespel and Michel Thierry present their synopsis of a report commissioned by the French Government on services provided to individuals (care of young children, aid to the elderly or handicapped).
Starting with a diagnosis of the existing system, they underscore its complexity and poor performance. As is often the case in matters of social policy over time, new measures have been added incrementally, with a consequent multiplication of administrative bodies. The result is a costly maze which, although it created jobs, was not adapted to needs and in the end was not manageable.
Asked to make proposals for improving the efficiency of the system without destroying jobs or compromising the balance of public finances, the authors came up with several recommendations inspired by a three-part preoccupation:
- to rationalize and impose uniformity on the melange of services,
- to restructure assistance by targeting the most needy households, and
- to put in place a policy of professionalization in the helping services.
Precise measures are proposed. They are succinctly described in the second part of the article published here.

Revue

Économie, emploi - Entreprises, travail - Institutions - Société, modes de vie

Les services d’aide à la personne. Analyse comparative et formes d’aide proposées

Beside the Hespel-Thierry Report (cf. Futuribles n°245, pp.31-44), two other reports on the helping professions were published in France in 1998. They are issued by the Council on Economic Analysis (Conseil d'Analyse Économique) attached to the Office of the Prime Minister.
Gilbert Cette compares the three reports which, although they agree on many observations, sometimes come to different recommendations.

Revue

Économie, emploi - Institutions

L’avenir des retraites en Europe

The future of pensions, mainly based on the principle of redistribution, provokes legitimate concern in European countries, due not only to the aging of the population but also to the evolving socio-economic context. While we may be unable to predict how the latter will evolve in the next decades, some trends are worrisome : globalization of the economy, for example, and its corollary of international competitiveness, forces entreprises, to be more cost-competitive and to minimize their contributions to social programs, including the unemployment problem.
In such a context, it is not difficult for some to raise the spectre of failure of the redistributive pension system and the spectre of intergenerational warfare, while others promote the merits of capitalization. To set capitalization and pay-as-you-go in opposition is nevertheless a false debate, according to Giovanni Tamburi. These two techniques of financing are more complementary than opposing. In fact, many European countries have made highly opportune reforms and are evolving toward a mixed system.
The author describes these reforms and shows how elements of capitalization can be introduced into the systems of pay-as-you-go (investing part of the contributions into saving funds) and concludes by describing the costs and modalities of financing pensions. He stresses that pay-as-you-go systems jeopardize job creation.

Revue

Institutions - Population - Santé

Vieillissement démographique et protection sociale

This article summarizes the main conclusions of the study on "Demographic Aging in European Union to 2050", published by the European Commission.
The authors first clarify the amplitude and time frame of demographic aging in seven European countries (Germany, Spain, France, Ireland, Italy, United Kingdom, Sweden) and in the European Union as a whole. To this end they use two indicators: the proportion of elderly in the population, and the differential rate of aging among neighboring countries.
Then they show the impact of aging alone (other factors remaining equal) on the financing of health care and pension systems. They demonstrate, for example, that if aging corresponds to the central scenario of Eurostat, financial equilibrium in the health care system could only be maintained by increasing the rate of contributions by half or by reducing the benefit by a third.
By the identical reasoning process, Gérard Calot and Jean-Paul Sardon show how impacts on the pension system might be accommodated: increasing the rate of contributions, decreasing the purchasing power of pensions relative to the net salaries of the work force, increasing the number of contributory years to qualify for a full pension, or by increasing the numbers of active contributors through higher rates of participation in the labor market or an increase in immigration.

Revue

Institutions - Population

L’avenir des retraites aux États-Unis

The United States, like European countries, faces a rapid aging of its population, particularly after 2010 when the baby boomers (1946-1964) reach the age of 65. The aging process will be all the more pronounced because of increase life expectancy.
As in Europe, this phenomenon has aroused concerns for the future of pensions. Basic U.S. pensions (Federal Old Age Pension, Federal Social Assistance for the Disabled, and Welfare for Elderly Indigents - Social Security Insurance), are based upon the principle of redistribution. These are supplemented, for a more restricted number of individuals, by company pensions and by individual retirement saving plans.
Following a re-examination of demographic trends in the United States, Daniel Béland, describes the organization of its pension system and the impact that the foreseeable aging could have. Finally, he reviews the reforms contemplated as a consequence and the polemics employed by the proponents and the adversaries of redistribution.

Bibliography

Entreprises, travail - Institutions

« La performance publique. Tome 1 : À la recherche de la performance publique »

Ce numéro de Politiques et management public constitue le premier tome d'un dossier entièrement consacré à la performance des administrations publiques et qui reprend les actes d'un colloque international dédié à cette question (tenu à Aix-en-Provence les 28-29 mai 1998). Une dizaine d'articles analysent les perspectives et les moyens relatifs à l'efficacité des administrations publiques, de manière générale mais aussi à l'aune de l'expérience de certains pays (États-Unis, pays en développement, par exemple). À ...

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Revue

Institutions

Les salariés du secteur public. Les fonctionnaires et les autres

Public Sector Employees, Public Servants... and Others, Annie Brenot-Ouldali
While it may be common knowledge that the state is the principal employer in France, estimates of the actual number who are either public servants or otherwise paid out of the public purse (whether rightly or not) are the object of frequent controversy.
Annie Brenot-Ouldali provides us here with a very useful description of the public service world, along with estimates of the numbers who find employment in it.
She distinguishes :
- the public service itself, comprising those employed by the state, including the territories and the health care system. It represents 5.3 million employees (end of 1996);
- the social security system with a total of 332.000 employees;
- enterprises working for the public service but under different status; bringing the total up to about six and a half million employees.

Revue

Institutions

Les retraites à l’horizon 2040. Les projections financières des régimes français de retraite, une note de synthèse

At the request of the French Prime minister, the Commissaire au Plan appointed a Task Force to diagnose the situation and prospects of the French retirement system (basic retirement and complementary retirement).
Within its mandate, the Commissaire au Plan had asked each pension plan to make projections to 2040 of the dependancy ratios (contributors, receivers) and the prospects for resources and expenditures, given a common framework of demographic and macro-economic hypotheses.
Charles du Granrut, using these projections, has made a synthesis which complements the recent publication of the Task Force and which should contribute to the public debate that is now required.

Revue

Institutions - Recherche, sciences, techniques

Entrer dans la société de l’information. L’enseignement américain

The Rise of the Information Age: The American Model, Michel Catinat
Although new information and communication technologies have been developing for a while, Michel Catinat argues that the rise of the post-industrial society has been especially striking through the nineties. This decade has seen the birth of the National Information Infrastructure (NII) programs initiated by the Clinton administration to stimulate development of the information society. These have re-established American hegemony in building the infrastructure and in the use of the new technology.
Catinat describes the policies followed by the United States since 1993, examines its goals and methods, evaluates its successes and failures, and concludes with its lessons for Europe. The NII policies, which have ramified with remarkable extent and diversity, are based on three instruments: 1) an important effort in financing and enhancement of research (multi-disciplinary consortia which link research institutes with industry); 2) the informatisation of government administrative functions; and 3) the adaptation of the regulatory and legislative framework to make it more conformable to administration via numeric data (entailing some negative effects on the protection of private life).
This internal activity has been extended to the international level (the "Global Information Infrastructure) by promoting the information society via international negotiations which came out to benefit primarily American interests.
Having analyzed the successes and the failures of this ambitious policy, Catinat reviews what Europe could learn: the first lesson is the utility of having a long term vision to guide action.
Then, to implement the vision, a set of determined and cohesive policies. These exist in Europe, but are more effective in the United States because of greater participation by private actors in the marketplace and a more developed attitude toward risk-taking.
Catinat also underscores the risk that the promoters of this technology post to the legislative and regulatory processes. This is already apparent in the United States and could portend an unwillingness of dominant American interests to submit to the kinds of international protocols which Catinat believes to be indispensable.

Revue

Économie, emploi - Institutions

Le temps de travail dans la fonction publique. Synthèse du rapport de la mission sur le temps de travail

Working Time in the Public Service. A Synthesis of the Report Presented by the Commission on Working Time, Jacques Roché
The French government has made reduction of working hours one of its essential priorities in the fight against unemployment. A first law was passed in June 1998, stipulating that by the first of January 2002 the legal working week will be reduced to 35 hours from 39 hours.
But the main employer in France is the state (with 2.2 million employees); the public and para-public sectors together employ between 4 and 6 million (see the article by Annie Brenot-Ouldali). One of the unanswered questions is how the reduction of working hours will affect the quality of service of the public sector, which is already notorious for its relaxed attitude to working time.
The ministry responsible for reform and decentralization of the public service appointed Jacques Roché to head an interdepartmental inquiry on the topic. His mandate was 1) to conduct a comprehensive survey on regulations and practices pertaining to working time and overtime in the public service; and 2) to explore the ways to organize work to improve the quality of service with a working week of 35 hours. The published text is a synthesis of the report presented by the interdepartmental commission.
It starts with an analysis of the situation, which stresses the difficulty of giving a precise estimate of the time spent at work due to the different situations and conditions of work. It provides us nevertheless with useful information about hours of work per week.
The second part summarizes the Commission's proposals. It stresses especially the need to couple reduction with reorganization of working time and with a modernization of the public service, which Jacques Roché says should be undertaken to improve working conditions.

Bibliography

Économie, emploi - Institutions

« La prospective d’un siècle à l’autre : prospective et gouvernance »

À l'occasion du colloque de Cerisy organisé autour du thème « Prospective et gouvernance » du 4 au 10 juin 1999, Repères prospectifs a tenu à introduire le débat en sortant un dossier spécial sur la question. C'est ainsi qu'une série d'articles sont réunis autour de la problématique de l'État, de ses marges de manœuvre décisionnelles, de la démocratie à l'échelle nationale et locale... et du rôle de la prospective dans ces différents domaines à l ...

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Revue

Institutions

Retraites : à quand la fin des annuités ?

France, like the other industrialized countries, confronts a rapid aging of its population and a consequent danger to the stability of its retirement system, given the principle of equalization between basic and complementary plans. The French Prime Minister asked the Commissaire au plan to explore the challenge and the possible avenues for addressing it. One of the main recommendations, in line with the Reform of 1993, is the extension of working life. This would obviously avoid an excessive degradation of the ratio between the years of contributions and those of receiving benefits.
Jacques Bichot offers a contrast between two systems: the one based on annual payment systems found in basic retirement plans, and the systems of bridging offered by complementary plans. He shows that the former, being excessively complex, rigid and unfair, should be replaced by a point system which, everything considered, is more equitable, transparent and easier to manage.
He bases his thesis on the fact that the return on contributions is unequal among ranks and that those who have been unable to have a complete career (such as women, immigrants and occasional workers) are penalized. This, he shows, has been built into a deeply opaque system of injustice and of unfair bureaucratic practices which is overruling the fundamental principles of a contributory logic.
Jacques Bichot makes a plea for a reform - towards a point system -which will eradicate the injustices of the present system, make it more adaptable to new needs and more manageable. He shows, finally, how to implement a transition between the two systems by borrowing some useful principles recently adopted by the Association générale de retraites des cadres and l'Association des régimes de retraites complémentaires (Associations of retired managers and of complementary retirements systems).

Bibliography

Institutions - Territoires, réseaux

« 2000-2006 : quelles politiques régionales ? »

Ce dossier préparé par la revue Pouvoirs locaux de mars 1999 fait le point sur la nouvelle donne pour les administrations régionales françaises au travers de deux articles. Le premier, d'Alain Faure et Andy Smith, analyse l'impact des changements intervenus dans la politique communautaire de l'Union européenne sur l'espace politique local - réforme de la politique agricole commune et des fonds structurels, en particulier. Quels sont les critères d'éligibilité à recevoir une aide communautaire ? Comment rendre ...

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Bibliography

Institutions - Santé

Santé : pour une révolution sans réforme

L'ouvrage de Jean de Kervasdoué porte essentiellement sur les défauts et dysfonctionnements du système de soin français. Trois phénomènes majeurs sont traités dans cet ouvrage : la médiocrité des performances des systèmes de soins occidentaux, le mythe selon lequel la santé des individus dépendrait exclusivement de la médecine (alors qu'elle dépend de beaucoup d'autres facteurs exogènes) et l'absence de véritable organisation des soins en France. Enfin Jean de Kersvadoué refuse la privatisation de l'assurance maladie et ...

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Bibliography

Économie, emploi - Institutions

The Asian Financial Crisis : the Challenge for Social Policy

Quelles sont les conséquences sociales de la crise financière asiatique et comment y remédier ? Statistiques à l'appui, l'auteur décrit la montée en flèche du chômage et ses répercussions dans les pays les plus touchés (République de Corée, Thaïlande, Indonésie). Il démontre que les systèmes de protection sociale rudimentaires dans ces pays, ont été, à des degrés divers, débordés par l'ampleur de la catastrophe. Il faut élaborer un nouveau contrat social, fondé sur le plein respect des droits ...

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Bibliography

Entreprises, travail - Institutions

Sharing the Wealth. Workers and the World Economy

Ethan Kapstein introduit son livre avec la thèse selon laquelle la justice sociale favorise le développement économique. Une meilleure répartition des revenus et des opportunités conduit en effet à une plus grande stabilité sociale, de plus forts taux d'investissement et une productivité du travail plus élevée. Mais les travailleurs bénéficient rarement, dans l'économie mondiale d'aujourd'hui, de cette justice économique. Or, selon l'auteur, la croissance future dépend largement de la possibilité pour les employés de profiter ...

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Bibliography

Économie, emploi - Institutions

L’État face aux chômeurs. L’indemnisation du chômage de 1884 à nos jours

Cet ouvrage retrace de façon magistrale l'histoire de l'indemnisation du chômage en France. De la création de Sociétés de Secours Mutuel à la fin du XIXe siècle, à l'intervention de plus en plus forte de l'État dans la première partie du XXe, puis à l'instauration du régime obligatoire géré de façon paritaire à la fin des années 1950, les mutations ont été profondes. Mais au-delà de ces étapes fortes, les débats ont été et restent ...

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Bibliography

Économie, emploi - Institutions

Retraites en péril

Publié dans une collection dont l'ambition est d'éclairer les débats publics jugés trop simplistes ou bien inutilement confus, cet opuscule est un condensé des écrits de Jacques Bichot sur la question des retraites. Il s'adresse, en priorité, aux non-lecteurs de « Quelles retraites en l'an 2000 ? », son précédent livre paru en 1993. Remettant l'ouvrage sur le métier, l'auteur y dénonce à nouveau l'organisation des retraites, qui n'a rien de sociale, et le refus ...

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Bibliography

Institutions

Le Vote incertain. Les élections régionales de 1998

Les élections européennes du 13 juin dernier ont marqué une forte poussée de l'abstention (53 %) et un éclatement des votes, en particulier à droite. Loin d'être surprenants, ces résultats prolongent en fait ceux des régionales de 1998. L'analyse du vote du 15 mars 1998 que nous propose le centre d'étude de la vie politique française (CEVIPOF) dans le cadre de ses « chroniques électorales » vient à point nommé pour mieux comprendre l'actualité politique. Tout comme les ...

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Bibliography

Économie, emploi - Institutions

Sociologie de la nation, fondements théoriques et expériences historiques

Avec l'effondrement du communisme, on assiste, depuis la fin des années 1980, au " retour des nations ". C'est que le fait national est aujourd'hui omniprésent et ne se limite pas, d'ailleurs, à I'éclatement de l'Empire soviétique. Des tentations nationales, ou nationalistes, se font jour en Inde, en Chine, sur le continent africain et, à un moindre degré, dans les démocraties occidentales. Dans ces conditions, le livre de Gil Delannoi vient à point nommé pour éclaircir ...

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Bibliography

Économie, emploi - Institutions

Le Turbo-capitalisme : les gagnants et les perdants de l’économie globale

La mode est à l"« horreur économique ». En voici une version américaine qui se veut scientifique. Son auteur est consultant pour le compte de grandes institutions. Il connaît manifestement mieux l'économie que Viviane Forrester mais il n'en est que plus embarrassé pour critiquer le capitalisme global. Il en constate certes les résultats positifs, mais il voudrait en éviter les inconvénients sociaux. Il prône donc un régime que nous avons déjà connu et qu'il appelle le « capitalisme contrôlé ...

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Chapitre Institutions

Ce chapitre est extrait du Rapport Vigie 2016 de Futuribles International, qui propose un panorama structuré des connaissances et des incertitudes des experts que l'association a mobilisés pour explorer les évolutions des 15 à 35 prochaines années sur 11 thématiques.