Institutions

Cette page regroupe l'ensemble des publications de Futuribles sur cette thématique (Vigie, revue, bibliographie, études, etc.)

Revue

Institutions

La recomposition politique. Plus d’État, moins d’État ou pas d’État

Political Reconstruction
Since the Liberal Democratic party lost a monopoly of power in 1993, the Japanese political system has been under complete reconstruction under the combined effect of internal factors (power struggles, administrative decay, the weight of corporatism, corruption, the emergence of new social demands and the volatility of the electorate...) and external ones (globalisation and economic deregulation, the emergence of new global and regional issues.)
Jean-Marie Bouissou considers the capacity of the system to adapt and describes two types of diametrically opposed sequences. The first ("virtuous circle") marked by a reform of the parties and the electoral system, would allow the emergence of a power and a firmer leadership, imposing its authority on the bureaucracy and the lobbies and at the same time accompanied by counterweights which would protect democracy. The second ("vicious circle") would on the other hand be marked by the absence of a solid majority and a specific program ("grab bag programs"), changeability, cynicism on the part of the electorate and a growing ungovernability of the country.
Going beyond this simple opposed pair, the author in the end sketches six scenarios for Japan's political future. He shows that the erection of a powerful and durable grand coalition is, like an Italian-style evolution, improbable and that coalition governments are more likely. Finally, he shows that the strengthening of the executive branch will result from a transformation of the relationship between the centre and the periphery, between the State and civil society.

Bibliography

Institutions - Société, modes de vie

Les Nouveaux Enjeux de la question sociale

La question sociale est, de nouveau, à l'ordre du jour. Renvoie-t-elle à des faits ou n'est-elle qu'une constatation au service du discours des experts et du jeu politique ? Suggérant un appauvrissement, elle apparaît dans un contexte d'accroissement des richesses qui s'accompagne d'une inégalité dans leur répartition. La cruauté de certaines situations risque d'alimenter une crise de confiance générale dans le bien-fondé de notre société et dans son avenir. Cet essai, consacré à l ...

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Bibliography

Institutions

Santé, soins et protection sociale en 1996

Pour mieux comprendre l'évolution du comportement de la population face au système de soins et de protection sociale, le CREDES effectue chaque année une enquête auprès d'un échantillon représentatif de ménages. En 1996, 4 244 ménages, soit environ 12 000 personnes ont été enquêtées. Dans ce rapport sont mis en évidence l'influence sur la protection maladie et sur les consommations médicales, de l'état de santé et des facteurs de risques associés, de l'âge et du ...

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Revue

Institutions - Santé

La France à la recherche d’un système de soins

France in Search of a Health System
In his article Claude Béraud first gives us a critical overview of the dynamics of the demand for a health system. He then analyses the content of the reform passed in 1995. Finally, he evaluates the possible effects of this reform and, depending on how it is accepted by healthcare professionals, its possible mid- and long-term evolution.
The critical overview spares no one. France does not have a health care system. The "system" has developed in the context of a biomedical model which, with the help of science and technology, is marked by inflation of supply and demand. It is ineffective, inefficient and collectively suicidal, since it is engendered by the private interests (of the sick and the health care professionals) in total disregard of any common good. This collective irresponsibility, by allowing social actors to "spend without accountability", leads to a galloping medical population, ill-adapted, disorganised and as a consequence, rapid growth of expenditures without progress to show for it.
The reform of 1995 aims to find a solution to the increasing deficit of the health insurance plan, proposing a new financing program and, mainly, more control over expenditures: on the one hand by introducing a more coherent and effective health care system and, on the other, by setting up an evaluation and monitoring system.
But the success of this reform will depend, Claude Béraud stresses, on its acceptance by health care professionals: if they cooperate, the reform could very well contribute to a more cost-effective heath care system performing for the benefit of the sick and society. If not, the reform will fail and we shall either have two-tier medicine or we will have to nationalize it.

Revue

Institutions - Population - Société, modes de vie

Le lobby des seniors. À propos du livre de Charles Morris

Avec près de 32 millions de membres, dont les 8 dollars de cotisation annuelle donnent droit à recevoir la revue bimensuelle Modem Maturity (Maturité moderne), ainsi que le Bulletin mensuel consacré aux questions de politiques courantes et à diverses réductions sur des produits et services, l'association américaine des retraités (AARP) est la plus grande organisation non-sectaire des États-Unis. Leur nombre n'est dépassé que par celui des 60 millions d'adhérents à l'église catholique romaine. La puissance de ...

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Revue

Institutions - Société, modes de vie

L’engagement politique : déclin ou mutation ?

New forms of political engagement
Two themes are recurrent in literature on the future: One is that of crisis, of social fracture accompanying the growth of unemployment, inequality and exclusion. The other forecasts social explosion, if not revolution. What can political science tell us about collective motivation and action?
At first (from the 18th century to 1950), political involvement was taken as normative, even metaphysical. The active, committed citizen was an axiom of political science, says Perrineau. Then, in a second period, its practitioners discovered the reality of the passive citizen. Since the start of the eighties they have rediscovered political involvement but under a diversified, exploded form.
Traditional political participation is in crisis, Perrineau affirms. The left/right cleavage is becoming less significant, membership in parties and labour unions is wilting, along with voter turnout. The centre of policy decisions is shifting from national to local and international levels.
On the other hand, new kinds of participation and involvement are forming around the great ethical and humanitarian issues implied by ecology. In place of the old democratic trio of party, mass mobilization and terminal negotiations is substituted a trio of interest groups, experts in communications, and image-building with media forums and opinion surveys. The trend is to individuation, atomization, blurring of boundaries and the political landscape - all of which contribute to greater unpredictability.

Bibliography

Entreprises, travail - Institutions

« La stratégie des acteurs de l’économie postale »

Ce cahier constitue la deuxième partie des actes du Congrès international consacré aux postes et entrepreneurs postaux. Il apporte des compléments d'information autour de quelques thèmes majeurs : l'économie postale, qui présente très peu de rendements croissants, est analysée comme un marché économiquement incontestable, c'est-à-dire offert à la libre concurrence. Une harmonisation des situations nationales postales s'avère nécessaire pour atteindre les objectifs de qualité et de réduction tarifaire. De même, les postes devront savoir tirer tous les ...

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Revue

Économie, emploi - Institutions - Territoires, réseaux

État, nation, territoire : la recomposition

Au cours des XIXe et XXe siècles, se sont édifiées et confondues en Europe les notions d'État, de nation et de territoire. Mais, aujourd'hui, les États s'affaiblissent, pris en ciseau entre, d'une part, la mondialisation de l'économie et la construction de grandes régions, d'autre part, les exigences croissantes de décentralisation. Les nations se disloquent, faute d'être unies contre un ennemi commun et du fait d'un processus simultané d'uniformisation et de revendications ...

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Revue

Géopolitique - Institutions - Société, modes de vie

Pour une fédération européenne multiculturelle

Alors que se réunit durant cette année 1996 la Conférence Intergouvernementale devant adapter les institutions européennes au double objectif d'approfondissement et d'élargissement de l'Union européenne, Elvire Letourneur-Fabry dénonce le déficit de légitimité desdites institutions européennes. Elle nous met au demeurant en garde contre les mesures qui consisteraient simplement à développer une politique de communication publique plus active, et souligne la nécessité de conférer à l'Union européenne une âme, en bref de mobiliser les citoyens sur un ...

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Revue

Géopolitique - Institutions

Scénarios pour l’Union européenne

La construction européenne marque le pas. Ses plus ardents partisans eux-mêmes s'interrogent. Que sortira-t-il de cette fameuse Conférence Intergouvernementale qui était si attendue et dont soudain on n'entend presque plus parler ? Qu'adviendra-t-il de l'approfondissement de l'Union - et notamment du projet de monnaie unique - et de son élargissement, notamment aux pays d'Europe centrale ? Jacques Lesourne expose ici quelles sont les évolutions possibles face aux quatre enjeux qu'il estime les plus importants: la monnaie, la ...

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Bibliography

Géopolitique - Institutions

« Le secteur économique postal en Europe »

Suite à un congrès international organisé par l'Institut de recherche, d'études et de prospective postale, ce cahier restitue les idées fondamentales émises par les participants et les grands thèmes développés au sujet des postes et des entrepreneurs postaux. Il permet de faire le point sur le contexte économique et juridique qui caractérise l'économie postale au plan européen : grâce à une démarche résolument comparative, les auteurs s'interrogent sur la notion de « service public et service universel », sur ...

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Revue

Économie, emploi - Géopolitique - Institutions

La Banque mondiale et les retraites. Une synthèse de l’approche néolibérale

La Banque mondiale a publié en octobre 1994 un rapport sur La crise du vieillissement 2 qui a été largement diffusé depuis. Elle y propose une approche complètement renouvelée des retraites et la mise en place d ' u n nouveau système de couverture de la vieillesse q u ' elle qualifie de « système à trois piliers ». La démarche générale qu'elle adopte se déroule en trois temps : le constat d'une crise imminente, l'appréhension des dispositifs de retraite à partir ...

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Forum

Institutions - Population

SOS jeunesse : un appel controversé

SOS Youth. A Controversial Call
In its 205th issue (January 1996) Futuribles published a "Call For Saving the Future: SOS Youth", by Evelyne Sullerot, Jean-Claude Chesnais, Michel Godet, Jacques Dupâquier, Philippe Rossillon. It has provoked a hot debate among some of our Board members and readers.
We are publishing here a letter sent by Rémi Barré which synthesizes clearly the perspectives of several persons and a synopsis by Hugues de Jouvenel, Director of the Journal. Michel Godet answers to the critics and Hugues de Jouvenel concludes the debate.

Forum

Géopolitique - Institutions

Pour une réforme de l’Union européenne

À l'occasion de la conférence intergouvernementale européenne (CIG) de 1996 — qui se déroulera en plusieurs étapes —, un groupe de réflexion sur les structures de l'Europe de la Fondation Bertelsmann a réalisé un rapport 1 sur les mesures à prendre pour tenir compte de l'élargissement de l'Europe et corriger son insuffisance démocratique.

Revue

Institutions - Population

Longévité et retraite en France

Longevity and Retirement in France
Life expectancy in France has increased by 35 years over the last century. This spectacular increase is due to reduced mortality at all ages but is more accentuated at the two extremes of life where it used to be especially high. First infant mortality has bottomed out, and more recently the average death age keeps rising.
This second phenomenon explains why life expectancy at 60-years-old increases faster than life expectancy at birth. The number of persons reaching 60 is going to rise more rapidly and as they live longer the proportion of sixty-years-old-plus will rapidly increase, especially in relation to the number of adults between the ages of 20 and 59.
To prevent the weight of retirees from falling too heavily on the active population, the duration of retirement relative to working life could be shortened. The reform proposed in 1993, to increase progressively the period of contribution required in order to receive a full pension, was a step in this direction.
But even if labor market conditions did not make it so difficult to extend the length of working life, this measure would be insufficient. We must therefore explore some other pathways of reform which will inevitably run into the eternal issue of acquired rights.

Bibliography

Économie, emploi - Institutions

Le fédéralisme financier. Perspectives de microéconomie spatiale

L'étude de Guy Gilbert s'inscrit au sein de la problématique de l'organisation territoriale, de la fourniture des biens collectifs, des conditions dans lesquelles les collectivités territoriales se font mutuellement concurrence pour offrir des services publics ou attirer des entreprises. L'auteur reconsidère les problèmes classiques du fédéralisme financier à la lumière des apports récents de la microéconomie : au fédéralisme fonctionnel de Musgrave-Oates a succédé progressivement une analyse centrée sur les comportements stratégiques des acteurs. Guy Gilbert recense ...

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Revue

Éducation - Institutions - Société, modes de vie

La société française fière de ses maux

French Society Proud of Its Sickness
Let's imagine that, in 1794, we had asked some illustrions thinkers to describe France in 1815. This certainly would have been a less perilous exercice than the one organised by DATAR, asking some brilliant intellects to ponder about France in 2015. D. Pinto warns us that, the epoch of Napoleon aside, the situation in 1815 was not very different from 1794 while 2015 promises to be radically different from the present.
According to the author, we are risking a revolution which, in its economic, social, cultural and political aspects, will recreate the cleavages which were supposedly abolished by the 1789 revolution. From the start D. Pinto emphasizes the main challenge faced by French society; she then proceeds to describe its assets as well as its handicaps, one being most often the reverse side of the other: a strong State but... impotent, a vast territory... in the process of desertification, a stable society... but deeply torn apart.
The author offers us an attractive analysis of French society as perceived from the United States and from Italy. From North America, the seemingly tranquil French society appears to be blocked, without much social mobility. A centralised and overbuilt machinery of state prevents the incarnation of republican principles, allowing a third-estate to re-emerge, as elites clone themselves indefinitely.
The Italian perspective admires the French state for maintaining public order, but is struck by the lack of genuine dynamism in its civil society. Italians are also sceptical of plans announced by Paris which they view as the product of a long Jacobin tradition finding no echo in the provinces, which lack local identity and true elites.
France, Diana Pinto states politely, still lives in the times of the Sun King, self-absorded in its ancestral grandeur. But it will have to adapt extremely fast to Europe, get over its rigidities, leave aside the repetitive tics of a political technocracy which is unable to listen to society.
Two years have passed since D. Pinto wrote this paper. She has added a post-scriptum: we are witnessing a worsening of the situation rather than the beginning of a process of adaptation.

Revue

Éducation - Institutions - Recherche, sciences, techniques - Société, modes de vie

Tocqueville est-il vraiment dépassé ? À propos du livre de Ezra N. Suleiman « Les ressorts cachés de la réussite française « 

Is Tocqueville Really Outdated? About Ezra N. Suleiman's book "Les Ressorts cachés de la réussite française"
Ezra N.Suleiman answers in the negative. French society, he contends, does not suffer from any deep disease nor any specific blockage. These words are all the more stricking coming from a Princeton University professor (USA). Witness, moreover, the economic and social progress, only hampered by the organisation, training and practices of governmental elites (as well as the confusion between the roles of politicians and senior civil servants).
Nevertheless, replies Erhard Friedberg, we should not delude ourselves about "French success". Its modernisation is not finished yet and still stumbles against deep blockages and a certain organisational and managerial archaism. E.N. Suleiman tends also to see only the good sides when it comes to the role of the State, which has not been as positive as he thinks. And last, and as sharply illustrated in the social crisis of the Fall of 1995, the republican model which confers on a central State guardianship of society as a whole, must be radically rethought.

Revue

Géopolitique - Institutions

L’équilibre des « petits « et des « grands « dans l’Union européenne

Balancing the "Large" and the "Small" in the European Union
The Intergovernmental Conference of1996 will unavoidably rekindle the issue of the composition of Europe, which has opposed for a long time the (demographically) "small" to the "large" members of the Union. The former defend the principle of equality among states regardless of demographic weight; the latter are reluctant to give majority power to the relatively large number of "small" states.
R. Toulemon examines here some juridical institutions which might satisfy these contradictory demands, equitably and effectively. But he also points beyond this issue to the more important debate on the different ideas surrounding the European project and the objectives pursued by present and potential member states.
Toulemon remains faithful to the ideas he has always defended, making the case for a Union which should go further and adopt an internal and external common policy. Only this will prevent a desirable expansion of the Union from turning into its deliquescence.

Bibliography

Institutions

« La politique familiale »

Si la famille est d'abord une histoire privée, elle est aussi l'affaire de l'État, qui peut estimer de son intérêt d'orienter ou même de déterminer les comportements privés. Quelles sont les prestations et les institutions qui, dans l'ensemble des politiques sociales, distinguent la politique familiale ? Celle-ci est-elle une spécificité française ? Quels sont les pays les plus généreux en matière d'aides aux familles ? Peut-on en mesurer les effets, notamment sur le plan démographique ? Comment est-on ...

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Revue

Institutions - Ressources naturelles, énergie, environnement - Société, modes de vie

Concurrence, régulation, service public

Competition, Regulation and Public Service. Variations around the Case of Electricity
In France, "public institutions" have long been considered as powerful vectors of social and economic development. Today they are subject to several criticisms, all of which stem from the strong current of free market liberalism which sings the praises of competition in every sector and consequently calls for the dismantling of regulated monopolies.
The debate does not simply oppose Latins who are attached to the notion of a public sector to Anglo-Saxons who prefer to ignore it. More acutely, it pits the Brussels Commission, favouring market liberalism, against defenders of public sector "à la française" who are presently looking for compromises through new concepts such as public utilities and network enterprises.
Marcel Boiteux, who is the incarnation of the high-rank public servants who participated in developing the French public sector, gives us his point of view. His first objective is to dissipate misunderstandings due to the improper confusion among concepts, such as monopoly, public enterprise, public service, and their assimilation to "network enterprises". Then, attacking the basis of the problem, he invites us to consider that essentially two distinct questions must be addressed : the regulation of monopolies and the duties of public service.
While acknowledging that free competition is often the best regulator, he underlines the peculiar circumstances which constitute "natural monopoly" and to which the principle of atomistic competition cannot apply. This demonstration suggests caution in the hasty assumption of similarity among all "network enterprises". He addresses the issue of integration versus dissociation between the operational and regulatory roles, concluding that an integrated regulator would be more enlightening for an agency such as the EDF, but that what is good for electricity may not be as good for telecommunications and transportation.
Marcel Boiteux then defines what he means by "public service" emphasizing the economic problem particular to public goods which means that they require subsidy or tariff equalization to be financially viable. The second of these has some significant advantages, in his view, but implies a delimitation of territory, that is to say, the territory of a nation-state rather than the European Union, through a "deregulation" of public markets ? Should we let the market develop by itself on foreign markets, up-stream and down-stream of the natural monopoly ?

Bibliography

Économie, emploi - Institutions

La Mutualité en mutation. Les pratiques solidaristes en question

Les principes de fonctionnement des mutuelles, intervenant sur le terrain du remboursement des frais, sont en pleine mutation : jusqu'aux années 1980, elles ne cherchaient pas à offrir un contrat d'assurance qui, couvrant un risque, devait impliquer le paiement d'une prime proportionnée à ce risque. Elles proposaient au contraire un système de solidarité. L'auteur s'interroge ici sur les transformations récentes d'un système concurrencé par des acteurs ne répondant pas à la même logique, comme les ...

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Chapitre Institutions

Ce chapitre est extrait du Rapport Vigie 2016 de Futuribles International, qui propose un panorama structuré des connaissances et des incertitudes des experts que l'association a mobilisés pour explorer les évolutions des 15 à 35 prochaines années sur 11 thématiques.