Cette page regroupe l'ensemble des publications de Futuribles sur cette thématique (Vigie, revue, bibliographie, études, etc.)
Between now and June 2003, the European Convention must make proposals to the enlarged European Union for institutions that are at last designed to meet the EU's purposes. This article by Robert Toulemon is therefore timely. In it, he emphasises the political and humanistic dimension of the moves towards unification and offers a third way between the two opposing schools of thought which have existed for the last half-century: intergovernmental cooperation versus federalism.
After recalling the issue involved -"to avoid an enlarged European Union being impotent"- Toulemon discusses in turn the aims and range of competencies of the EU; its potential institutional arrangements; and the procedures to ensure what he calls the "necessary differentiation within integration".
With regard to aims and competencies, it is important to know what we want to do together. Toulemon argues that we want more than a single market -we would like to create a political union with real power to determine foreign policy and defence policy issues; within the EU, we need control over law and order, as well as social and fiscal matters.
Toulemon emphasises clearly that the preamble to any future Constitution for the EU should set out the key competencies that ought to be devolved upwards to the Union while also ensuring that European institutions do not drown in the detail, and community involvement in "minor" matters (rules on hygiene, dates for the start of the hunting season and the like) should remain the responsibility of individual states or regions.
With regard to the institutional arrangements, Toulemon dismisses both traditional schools of thought and instead argues in favour of having a President of the Union and a "presidium" of half a dozen respected individuals who -and this is important- would be responsible for representing the common interests of Europe as a whole and not the special interests of the member states. At the same time, he offers various suggestions for making the EU more democratic and for organising the necessary legislative bodies.
Lastly, as to "differentiation within integration", Toulemon ponders the possible ways of solving the present dilemma in which the expression of a real European political will is hindered, in particular with regard to the decision-making process, and yet unanimity is required, which is all too often a cause of paralysis.
Toulemon is highly critical of the fact that a tiny minority can permanently block the clear wishes of the majority, even with regard to constitutional matters. He offers various proposals for ways of giving EU bodies the speed and efficiency required for some kinds of decision-making. In particular, he suggests adopting a straightforward rule of two-thirds majority voting, which would give states a certain freedom of choice without paralysing the whole Union.
Les avancées en matière de technologies de l'information bouleversent la majorité des domaines, qu'ils concernent le monde des affaires, la société ou le monde politique, et ce dans la plupart des pays. Ce rapport de la Rand clôture un travail de plusieurs années d'exploration des changements provoqués, fournissant un état de la « révolution de l'information » aujourd'hui, ainsi qu'à court et moyen termes (5 à 15 ans). Cette exploration a montré l'existence de nombreux ...
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Pour Jean-Pierre Le Goff, philosophe de formation et sociologue, le mal-être existentiel et social des sociétés démocratiques n'est pas une simple affaire de « dictature des marchés » et de « manipulation des médias ». Dans son livre, il remet en cause l'approche des tenants de l'antimondialisation qui voient dans le nouveau totalitarisme des marchés et des médias la cause principale du malaise actuel. Selon l'auteur, cette vision du monde est prisonnière de l'économisme et demeure excessive. Il convient ...
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Lorsque le Bureau de l'Assemblée nationale a saisi l'Office parlementaire d'évaluation des choix scientifiques et technologiques d'une étude sur les méthodes d'identification des personnes à partir de données biométriques et sur les techniques de mise en œuvre, cette question ne faisait pas en France l'objet d'un réel débat à la mesure des enjeux en présence. Certes, des mesures se préparaient et se négociaient aux niveaux européen et international, des études étaient engagées, ici ...
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L'association Futuribles International a demandé au professeur Alfredo Valladao, responsable de la chaire Mercosur à l'Institut d'études politiques de Paris, de fournir des éclairages sur la situation actuelle du Brésil et les marges de manoeuvre de son nouveau président Lula (Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva).
One of today's most successful portmanteau terms, as the sociologists call them, is undoubtedly the principle of "subsidiarity" - a word that is now used for all manner of things, but above all in every discussion, whether European or national, of the future of our institutions and the redistribution of competencies among different levels of public administration.
If, in invoking this principle, the idea is generally to insist on the need to deal with issues as close as possible to where they have an impact (proximity principle), it is nevertheless the case that this well-known principle is, according to Yves Gaudemet, ambiguous and debatable, without real legal or practical meaning.
After showing how widely this principle is now used, especially in debates about European unification and the creation of appropriate public institutions, Yves Gaudemet argues first why the principle of subsidiarity is so ambiguous, and then why its future is so uncertain.
Tony Blair, the British Prime Minister, acknowledged that "subsidiarity is the word that saves the Treaty of Maastricht". It does so because everybody can interpret it as suits them best, says Yves Gaudemet, who in the course of this article argues that affirming this principle does not resolve anything and can in no way take the place of the indispensable sharing out of responsibilities within the European Union.
Alors que, selon le dernier Eurobaromètre, c'est en France que l'on trouve le plus grand nombre de personnes hostiles au futur élargissement de l'Union européenne, Jean-François Drevet est revenu sur les principaux enjeux de cet élargissement à partir d'un rappel : du calendrier prévu, du bilan des élargissements précédents, de la méthode d'adhésion adoptée, de l'impact du futur élargissement sur la France, et des limites d'un tel processus d'élargissement.
Social protection systems, which are particularly highly developed in the OECD area, albeit very different in their form and their basic philosophies, are in crisis. With their general aim to reconcile economic efficiency and social progress, they are now facing major challenges as a result of globalisation and its corollary, the need to be competitive, ageing populations and the threats to the future of pension regimes, as well as transformations in the world of work....
The World Bank and the Centre for the Study of French Political Life (Cévipof) jointly organized a seminar to discuss these questions and, in particular, the World Bank's proposals for coping with the risks of old age and poverty. These proposals generated lively debate which were the subject of a book entitled Politiques sociales et mondialisation, published in 2001 by Futuribles.
Julien Damon here reviews the book and the World Bank proposals, including (naturally) the idea of introducing pension systems based on capitalization alongside "pay-as-you go" schemes, as well as the comments they raised and the alternative and/or complementary proposals put forward by the participants at this high-level meeting.
Dans l'avenir, vieillissement de la population oblige, les individus ne devront plus compter sur l'État pour leur fournir une généreuse pension de retraite. Ils devront de plus en plus prendre leurs précautions en épargnant au cours de leur vie active. Andrew Berthusen voit dans cette obligation une opportunité pour restructurer l'économie entière, par l'injection massive de capitaux qui en résulte. L'aversion pour le risque présenté par les marchés financiers devra être combattue.
Although this article, which was written long before the recent French elections, sets out to examine long-term trends, it is also extremely illuminating about the present political situation.
While there are clear differences among countries (in particular between the Protestant nations of Northern Europe and the Catholic South) it highlights the general decline in interest in politics and in turnout at elections, especially among young people. By contrast, it stresses the rise of new forms of political activity based on protest.
Pierre Bréchon ponders how much trust Europeans place in their institutions, and shows - although, again, there are obvious differences between countries - that some institutions are well regarded, depending on their purpose, for example the systems providing education, social security and healthcare.
By contrast, stressing the gulf between political leaders and the electorate, Bréchon points out how far the democratic institutions such as parliaments are criticized for being unrepresentative.
He then goes on to look at political affiliations, in particular the Left-Right divide; he shows that although this is now much less marked, it still has a certain sense, as can be seen from the importance attached to a range of values emblematic of the two sides.
After focussing on xenophobia, the changes in attitudes to immigrants and the immigration policies adopted by the various countries, Pierre Bréchon looks more closely at democracy itself. He argues that although it is well established in Western Europe, this does not mean that it is above criticism, sometimes energetic.
Overall, the author stresses that the trends observed over the last 20 years remain steady, including the continuing diversity among countries which appears not to have diminished in spite of the growth of the European Union.
Ce chapitre est extrait du Rapport Vigie 2016 de Futuribles International, qui propose un panorama structuré des connaissances et des incertitudes des experts que l'association a mobilisés pour explorer les évolutions des 15 à 35 prochaines années sur 11 thématiques.