Cette page regroupe l'ensemble des publications de Futuribles sur cette thématique (Vigie, revue, bibliographie, études, etc.)
Pour Jean-Pierre Le Goff, philosophe de formation et sociologue, le mal-être existentiel et social des sociétés démocratiques n'est pas une simple affaire de « dictature des marchés » et de « manipulation des médias ». Dans son livre, il remet en cause l'approche des tenants de l'antimondialisation qui voient dans le nouveau totalitarisme des marchés et des médias la cause principale du malaise actuel. Selon l'auteur, cette vision du monde est prisonnière de l'économisme et demeure excessive. Il convient ...
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Qui doit décider où l'on doit faire passer une autoroute, s'il faut construire une nouvelle centrale nucléaire ou encore quelle quantité de poissons peut être pêchée ? Comment le public est-il consulté ? Les citoyens ou groupes d'intérêt ont-il le droit de faire appel de décisions qu'ils jugent nocives pour l'écosystème ? Toutes ces questions relèvent de la gouvernance environnementale, thème central de ce 10e rapport du WRI. Le présupposé est qu'une meilleure participation à la prise ...
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L'association Futuribles International a demandé au professeur Alfredo Valladao, responsable de la chaire Mercosur à l'Institut d'études politiques de Paris, de fournir des éclairages sur la situation actuelle du Brésil et les marges de manoeuvre de son nouveau président Lula (Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva).
One of today's most successful portmanteau terms, as the sociologists call them, is undoubtedly the principle of "subsidiarity" - a word that is now used for all manner of things, but above all in every discussion, whether European or national, of the future of our institutions and the redistribution of competencies among different levels of public administration.
If, in invoking this principle, the idea is generally to insist on the need to deal with issues as close as possible to where they have an impact (proximity principle), it is nevertheless the case that this well-known principle is, according to Yves Gaudemet, ambiguous and debatable, without real legal or practical meaning.
After showing how widely this principle is now used, especially in debates about European unification and the creation of appropriate public institutions, Yves Gaudemet argues first why the principle of subsidiarity is so ambiguous, and then why its future is so uncertain.
Tony Blair, the British Prime Minister, acknowledged that "subsidiarity is the word that saves the Treaty of Maastricht". It does so because everybody can interpret it as suits them best, says Yves Gaudemet, who in the course of this article argues that affirming this principle does not resolve anything and can in no way take the place of the indispensable sharing out of responsibilities within the European Union.
Alors que, selon le dernier Eurobaromètre, c'est en France que l'on trouve le plus grand nombre de personnes hostiles au futur élargissement de l'Union européenne, Jean-François Drevet est revenu sur les principaux enjeux de cet élargissement à partir d'un rappel : du calendrier prévu, du bilan des élargissements précédents, de la méthode d'adhésion adoptée, de l'impact du futur élargissement sur la France, et des limites d'un tel processus d'élargissement.
Social protection systems, which are particularly highly developed in the OECD area, albeit very different in their form and their basic philosophies, are in crisis. With their general aim to reconcile economic efficiency and social progress, they are now facing major challenges as a result of globalisation and its corollary, the need to be competitive, ageing populations and the threats to the future of pension regimes, as well as transformations in the world of work....
The World Bank and the Centre for the Study of French Political Life (Cévipof) jointly organized a seminar to discuss these questions and, in particular, the World Bank's proposals for coping with the risks of old age and poverty. These proposals generated lively debate which were the subject of a book entitled Politiques sociales et mondialisation, published in 2001 by Futuribles.
Julien Damon here reviews the book and the World Bank proposals, including (naturally) the idea of introducing pension systems based on capitalization alongside "pay-as-you go" schemes, as well as the comments they raised and the alternative and/or complementary proposals put forward by the participants at this high-level meeting.
Dans l'avenir, vieillissement de la population oblige, les individus ne devront plus compter sur l'État pour leur fournir une généreuse pension de retraite. Ils devront de plus en plus prendre leurs précautions en épargnant au cours de leur vie active. Andrew Berthusen voit dans cette obligation une opportunité pour restructurer l'économie entière, par l'injection massive de capitaux qui en résulte. L'aversion pour le risque présenté par les marchés financiers devra être combattue.
Although this article, which was written long before the recent French elections, sets out to examine long-term trends, it is also extremely illuminating about the present political situation.
While there are clear differences among countries (in particular between the Protestant nations of Northern Europe and the Catholic South) it highlights the general decline in interest in politics and in turnout at elections, especially among young people. By contrast, it stresses the rise of new forms of political activity based on protest.
Pierre Bréchon ponders how much trust Europeans place in their institutions, and shows - although, again, there are obvious differences between countries - that some institutions are well regarded, depending on their purpose, for example the systems providing education, social security and healthcare.
By contrast, stressing the gulf between political leaders and the electorate, Bréchon points out how far the democratic institutions such as parliaments are criticized for being unrepresentative.
He then goes on to look at political affiliations, in particular the Left-Right divide; he shows that although this is now much less marked, it still has a certain sense, as can be seen from the importance attached to a range of values emblematic of the two sides.
After focussing on xenophobia, the changes in attitudes to immigrants and the immigration policies adopted by the various countries, Pierre Bréchon looks more closely at democracy itself. He argues that although it is well established in Western Europe, this does not mean that it is above criticism, sometimes energetic.
Overall, the author stresses that the trends observed over the last 20 years remain steady, including the continuing diversity among countries which appears not to have diminished in spite of the growth of the European Union.
Au centre des polémiques issues des récents scandales de malversations comptables, la question de la gouvernance d'entreprise a suscité de nombreuses réflexions. Face au conflit d'intérêt fondamental entre les managers et les actionnaires et aux transformations de la nature même de l'entreprise, quel mécanisme de gouvernance instituer ? C'est à cette réflexion globale que nous invite Jean-Paul Pollin, ouvrant la voie à une meilleure prise en compte du long terme et du capital humain dans la conduite ...
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Bernard Cochemé first sets out the scale of the catastrophe brought about by the collapse of Enron and explains the consequences of such a bankruptcy for those whose pensions depend on capital funds.
In this regard, he makes a clear distinction between pension funds, in particular those with a fixed return which, if they are properly run, spread the risks fairly, from the savings funds, especially those with fixed contributions, whose holdings amount to around $2 trillion.
The author emphasizes the importance of managing risks, in particular the critical need for reliable financial information and therefore for reliable financial advisers, especially auditors, who mercifully are not always as corrupt as seems to have been in the case in the Enron affair.
Nevertheless, he has concerns about the new measures being proposed by the US government and Congress in order to safeguard the rights of employees and shareholders.
The first round of the French presidential elections caused real anxiety: the Far Right, with over 5 million votes (a clear increase compared with the 1995 election), came second, knocking out the Socialist candidate from the second round. How can this result be explained?
Pascal Perrineau starts by recalling that support for the Far Right, in spite of the view of some commentators, has not fallen away in recent years. On the contrary, he stresses that we have seen a considerable increase in abstentions and in votes for both Far Left and Far Right, while the major government coalitions have lost many votes.
For Perrineau, an expert in European extreme Right-wing movements, "the first round of the presidential election was indeed an election composed of 'anti' votes", just as the second round saw a massive rejection of Jean-Marie Le Pen: "the whiff of sulphur that provided his strength in the first (proportional) round, in which all the negative feelings were expressed, became a handicap in the second round".
Pascal Perrineau then analyses the geographical distribution of the support for the Far Right (in eastern and southern France) and the sociological patterns, showing that those who vote for Le Pen are mainly young men with little education, small shopkeepers, unskilled manual workers and the unemployed.
Lastly, Perrineau attempts an investigation of the causes underlying this vote for the Far Right. He notes that, in addition to the specific motives such as the rising levels of petty crime, the return of pessimism about economic and social prospects, and the worries caused by the growth of an "open society", there are also much deeper motives. He argues that a new division is developing in France, beyond the traditional Left-Right split, between people who cling to "closed" attitudes and those whose attitudes are more "open": the former being opposed to, the latter in favour of, European unification, globalisation, the post-industrial society, multiculturalism, etc.
Having thus outlined and explained why the two rounds of this presidential election have been massive rejections, Perrineau stresses that it is urgent "for France to rediscover - beyond these 'negative' political movements that have regularly caused such upheavals for almost ten years now - a kind of political awareness that is more a matter of commitment and reform than a rejection of the status quo".
Society is changing rapidly. These changes are the product of, among other things, the new information and communications technologies (NICTs). The impact of the NICTs is analysed here by François Ascher.
He says that the Internet is seen as opening up all kinds of new possibilities. While some argue that technical advances are not causing major social changes, he takes the opposite position: the vigour and speed of penetration of the NICTs are accompanied by radical changes in our social and cultural models.
The new modernity now emerging, which he labels 'the hypertext society' by analogy with the interactive links of the Internet, is based on the knowledge economy and is characterized by greater emphasis on individuals, rationalization and social differentiation. These 'multifaceted' individuals with multiple connections act in varying ways, and their new ways of thinking and acting create new social linkages, new forms of solidarity, and sometimes also problems.
Ascher goes on to argue that this on-going process of modernization, which emphasizes individual freedoms and aims to create a fairer and more open and peaceful society, requires an updating of the concepts of democracy, political programmes and government action. This new democracy (more complex and more procedural) will be most effective if it is truly 'comprehensive' and consultative, relying more on interactive than on traditional modes of governance. But will it be capable of inculcating tolerance, morality, justice and hospitality? Can it redefine notions of solidarity and responsibility, achieve lasting compromises, operate from the most local level to the most global level?
According to François Ascher, the new dynamics of local governance and the development of supranational policies and multinational organizations give cause for hope, provided that modern decision-makers feel that they can control what will happen in the future.
L'introduction d'un pilier par capitalisation en complément du régime par répartition est souvent présentée comme un moyen d'augmenter l'épargne d'une économie. En effet, les agents anticipant pouvoir bénéficier d'une retraite par répartition quand ils seront inactifs diminuent leurs flux d'épargne-retraite. Mais une comparaison entre pays à systèmes de retraite différents contredit ce schéma. La prise en compte de la structure de la population ne suffit pas non plus à expliquer les écarts de ...
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Is it especially difficult to initiate high quality public debate in France? This is at least the impression of the authors of this piece, who are highly critical of the French tendency to trot out inadequate clichés rather than to have a proper discussion of major social issues, such as pensions.
True, the current election campaign is partly responsible, but the problem seems more deep-seated: there appears to be a growing propensity in France to shy away from real debate. For this reason, the authors urge a return to greater intellectual honesty in public discussions, which have become dominated by political posturing. Because, following the publication of their report on the future of pensions, they have seen their own ideas distorted quite shamelessly, they are concerned to set out their arguments clearly once more, at the risk of repeating themselves.
Ce chapitre est extrait du Rapport Vigie 2016 de Futuribles International, qui propose un panorama structuré des connaissances et des incertitudes des experts que l'association a mobilisés pour explorer les évolutions des 15 à 35 prochaines années sur 11 thématiques.