Cette page regroupe l'ensemble des publications de Futuribles sur cette thématique (Vigie, revue, bibliographie, études, etc.)


Géopolitique - Institutions

Russie : la « verticale du pouvoir « 

In this opinion piece, Viviane du Castel surveys the current political and geostrategic situation in Russia following the overwhelming re-election of Vladimir Putin as President of the Russian Federation.
While representative democracy seems to be in a poor way, with opposition parties marginalized and the freedom of the press increasingly threatened, the economy is at a crossroads. A temporary halt to market reforms and a gradual "sovietization" of big industry is accompanied by major uncertainties generated by the clash between the Kremlin and the so-called oligarchs, who are seen as too powerful and too independent. Viviane du Castel discusses the range of options available to Putin during his second term, in which he holds all the political reins in his hands.
In terms of foreign policy, Russia's position today hardly differs from what it was under the Czars: it has to combine its ambitions vis-à-vis the West (i.e. Europe and the United States), the East (mainly China) and what the Russians still call "the near abroad", which this old imperial power cannot disregard for very long. Moreover, the Russian gambit towards China, the European Union and the Atlantic alliance - all now on its borders - can be seen clearly both in its direct international relations and in its actions in those areas that have often been viewed as an essential part of its outer defences: Kaliningrad, Moldavia, Ukraine, the Baltic states, the Caucasus and Central Asia remain the preferred regions where Russia exercises its muscle. Energy issues, for example, are a good indicator of Moscow's degree of influence on policy.
The real challenge for the country now is to achieve a balance among these three regional power games so as to maximize Russia's role and international influence.
Viviane du Castel provides here the keys to understanding the issues facing a Russian President who seeks to restore his office to the central role within the "vertical" power hierarchy that he wants to re-establish in the anarchic Federation that Russia is today.

Futurs d'antan

Entreprises, travail - Institutions - Recherche, sciences, techniques

La politique de recherche, vue de 1964. Extrait des Réflexions pour 1985

Since the European Council in Lisbon in March 2000, the European Union gave itself the target of becoming "the most dynamic and competitive knowledge-based economy in the world" by the year 2010. A target which, according to the official line, would involve bringing the European research effort to 3% of the gross domestic product (GDP) by this time. Why this figure of 3% of the GDP? Part of the response lies in an extract from the 1964 work from the Plan, Considerations for 1985 (Paris: La documentation Française), which is reproduced in this issue. From 1964, the strategists for the French Plan estimated that in two decades' time, 3% of the gross domestic product should be devoted to research, in order to put France in a favourable position among international competitors and to make it a genuine rival for the United States -which was already showing this investment rate in the research carried out in 1964! They also insisted on the necessity of increasing research performance in France, notably with the help of an appropriate recruitment policy and the creation of "suitable reception facilities" which would incidentally provide researchers with the means to work efficiently.


Géopolitique - Institutions

La haute fonction publique internationale

In this article General Alain Lamballe, who has held many high-level posts involving international strategic relations, stresses how the English-speaking nations, especially the British, have succeeded in "bagging" key posts in international bodies, whereas senior French civil servants have tended to be relegated to lesser positions, partly through bad personnel management and partly through inadequate training.
In particular, he shows how the British manage to monopolize key positions, especially when important strategic issues are at stake, thus enabling the English-speaking countries to impose their views on the conduct of business.
By contrast, he argues, France's problem lies in French policy with regard to senior international civil servants. In his view, after their initial training, such people are not given adequate long-term training or moved around enough to acquire the range of experience that ambassadors and senior military officers, for example, require in order to cope with the issues of globalisation.

CR table ronde


La judiciarisation de la société : l’irruption du Tiers Pouvoir

Denis Salas est venu à Futuribles pour débattre de la tendance à la judiciarisation de la société qui, après avoir touché les États-Unis, semble se développer également en France. L’intervenant a commencé par décrire ce phénomène, d’une ampleur assez inédite dans notre histoire politique. En effet, depuis Napoléon, l’ordre judiciaire s’est construit comme soutien de l’État. Cette structure pyramidale est une constante politique que le gaullisme a fortement renforcée, elle est aux antipodes de la ...

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Entreprises, travail - Institutions

Marx vu par Aron

Jean-Claude Casanova and Christian Bachelier have assembled and presented with a commentary a collection of the courses given by Raymond Aron, at the Sorbonne or the Collège de France, on Marx and Marxist thought. Jean-Jacques Salomon discusses the results of their work, published at the end of 2002 under the title Le Marxisme de Marx (Paris: Éditions de Fallois, 2002). He shows how Raymond Aron tried in his teaching to decode Marxist thought, to relate it to what was actually observed in society, and to emphasize how clearly Marx perceived (even foresaw) many contemporary problems. For Jean-Jacques Salomon, this was Aron's best book (even if he was not, strictly speaking, the author); it is an analytical tool that will be indispensable when there is -as there certainly will be, according to him -a "return to Marx".


Institutions - Santé

Rapport du Haut conseil pour l’avenir de l’assurance maladie

Devant l'évolution préoccupante du déficit des dépenses d'assurance maladie (déficit de 11 milliards d'euros actuellement qui passera en toute hypothèse à 29 milliards en 2010 puis 66 milliards en 2020), le Haut conseil pour l'avenir de l'assurance maladie présente ses orientations pour une réforme de l'assurance maladie. Le conseil préconise notamment une réorganisation de l'offre de soins (l'activité médicale libérale comme celle des hôpitaux) « pour l'adapter aux besoins de la population ...

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Institutions - Territoires, réseaux

The Future of Transport. A Network for 2030

Ce livre blanc du ministère des transports britannique est emblématique de la place de la prospective dans les décisions publiques d'aujourd'hui. Dès la préface de Tony Blair, et à maintes reprises, le message principal s'impose sans ambiguïtés : le transport est un sujet qui ne peut être traité que par une vision à long terme, par une stratégie pour concrétiser cette vision et par l'engagement du gouvernement. Le rapport mobilise des projections à long terme pour expliciter ...

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Géopolitique - Institutions - Recherche, sciences, techniques

eGovernment in the EU in the next decade : the vision and key challenges

This report summarises the results of the workshop "eGovernment in the EU in 2010: Key Policy and Research Challenges" (Seville, 4-5 March 2004), which aimed to a) develop a balanced vision of what eGovernment in the EU would look like in 2010 and, b) define the key challenges to realising this vision.



Regards prospectifs sur l’État stratège n° 1

Le Commissaire au Plan, Alain Etchegoyen, a remis le 15 juin 2004 au Premier ministre français, Jean-Pierre Raffarin, un document présentant le contenu des travaux en cours au Plan : Regards prospectifs sur l'État stratège. La transformation du Plan, voulue par le Premier ministre il y a un an, trouve ainsi sa première expression officielle. Ce document est le premier numéro d'une publication qui sera semestrielle. Il répond à la volonté d'Alain Etchegoyen, conformément à la mission qui ...

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Géopolitique - Institutions

China’s Democratic Future : How It Will Happen and Where It Will Lead

L'auteur de cet ouvrage, Bruce Gilley, est un observateur averti de la res sinica. Journaliste, basé à Hong Kong et en république populaire de Chine, il fut correspondant de la Far Eastern Economic Review. On lui doit notamment China's New Rulers, ouvrage publié en 2003 (Granta Books) en collaboration avec Andrew Nathan, autre sinologue de renom, et dans lequel les deux auteurs avaient témoigné de leur connaissance approfondie des coulisses du pouvoir chinois en analysant le renouvellement à ...

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L’ANAH à l’horizon 2010

Ce cahier du LIPSOR présente une démarche réussie de prospective stratégique qui a conduit à la réorganisation d'une agence d'État, l'ANAH (Agence nationale pour l'amélioration de l'habitat). Cet exercice, mené à un moment où l'évaluation des politiques publiques et la mise en place de la LOLF (loi organique relative aux lois de finances) impliquent une nouvelle logique en termes de fonctionnement de l'État, correspond à un enjeu de société d'actualité. Michel Godet ...

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Chapitre Institutions

Ce chapitre est extrait du Rapport Vigie 2016 de Futuribles International, qui propose un panorama structuré des connaissances et des incertitudes des experts que l'association a mobilisés pour explorer les évolutions des 15 à 35 prochaines années sur 11 thématiques.