Cette page regroupe l'ensemble des publications de Futuribles sur cette thématique (Vigie, revue, bibliographie, études, etc.)
The unemployment insurance agreement that came into force in France on 1 April 2009 will expire on 31 December 2010. It will, therefore, become subject to renegotiation in November. Given particularly poor current levels of employment and the potential impact of pensions reform on the national unemployment insurance scheme, that renegotiation is like to spark some lively controversies.
One of these will no doubt be over the highly advantageous insurance arrangements enjoyed by workers in the entertainment industry. These latter in fact represent O.8 % of employees in the overall scheme, 3,4 % of persons indemnified and 5,9 % of the scheme’s costs. After reminding us of these data, Bruno Coquet freely acknowledges the exceptional dynamism of the entertainment industries and the fact that, contributing as they do not just to entertainment, but to culture and education, they are worthy recipients of state aid.
However, Coquet is critical of two oddities in this situation: since state aid takes the form, in this case, of unemployment benefits, it has a great impact on the financial equilibrium of the unemployment insurance scheme and is detrimental to the workers in other sectors of economic activity. While very dynamic, the entertainment industries abuse the fact of their employees being very advantageously indemnified during periods of unemployment to create great numbers of insecure jobs without due consideration for the consequences.
Coquet thus shows that the highly favourable unemployment scheme for these workers represents an unsuitable form of financial assistance to the culture industries, is a source of unfairness and has significant unintended consequences. He concludes that this atypical insurance system is harmful and that it would be better to replace it with a proper subsidy for cultural production.
Cities find themselves increasingly in competition with one another, particularly on account of globalization. For this reason, they are constantly attempting to attract more residents, tourism, investment and activities, and to position themselves at the top of the various “league tables” that have emerged in recent years to indicate the attractiveness of the great metropolises. These classifications, of varying degrees of rigour, are published, disseminated and discussed and hence have an impact on the image of local areas. In 2009, for example, The Economist and Mercer ranked Tokyo as the world’s most expensive city, while Vancouver (The Economist) and Vienna (Mercer) were said to be the most pleasant to live in.
In this context, the notion of territorial attractiveness has become essential in the “evaluation of the performance and dynamism of cities”, one of the priorities of city planning policies. But what is meant by the term “attractiveness”? What are its dimensions and determinants?
After presenting the main attractiveness “league tables”, François Cusin and Julien Damon enquire into this new concept, which they compare with the notion of competitiveness. “To gauge the attractiveness of a city is to assess its sphere of influence, its capacity to generate movement and to exert lasting attraction”, observe our authors. Beyond its economic functions, a territory must therefore offer its inhabitants well-being and quality of life. It must provide what they call “residential attractiveness”.
To stay competitive, local governments are developing ambitious city planning policies, putting attractiveness at the heart of their strategy and drawing on the new discipline of urban marketing — so great a priority has the promotion of their brand image become.
Le risque santé se caractérise, traditionnellement, aux États-Unis par la prédominance des assurances privées via l’emploi. Il contient tout de même également un système de prise en charge subsidiaire par des programmes publics. Un problème au fond de tous les débats contemporains réside dans le fait que les dépenses publiques s’accroissent plus rapidement que les dépenses privées. De récentes prévisions laissent entrevoir un dépassement des secondes par les premières à l’horizon 2014. À cette date, les États-Unis ...
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Quels pays offrent les meilleures conditions de « fin de vie » aux malades ? D’après une étude réalisée par la fondation britannique Lien, ce sont les pays anglo-saxons, alors que la Chine et l’Inde figurent parmi les moins généreuses en la matière. Un classement peut-être contestable, mais qui a le mérite de pointer du doigt certaines insuffisances dans ce domaine.
Dans un article du Financial Times Deutschland en date du lundi 9 août 2010, Janusz Lewendowski, le commissaire européen en charge du Budget, annonce pour fin septembre des propositions sur la création d’un impôt européen, une idée déjà ancienne. Il cherche visiblement à créer un débat public sur cette question, dans l’optique des prochaines négociations sur le cadre financier 2014-2020, sur fond d’hostilités de certains États membres.
La France, avec un haut niveau de protection et de dépenses sociales (plus de 30 % de PIB – au premier rang européen) dispose d’un instrument incontestablement efficace pour amortir la crise. La question est celle de la réelle capacité à continuer à financer l’ensemble des prestations et services sociaux, tout comme les projets de développement et de réforme. Pour le moment la crise a pour impact de voir augmenter les demandes et les dépenses. L’offre proposée ne diminue ...
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Le secteur du logement, et notamment du logement social, est, depuis le début de l’année 2010, en profonde mutation, avec la réforme des collecteurs du 1 % logement (désormais dénommé Action logement), le regroupement de certains organismes HLM (habitation à loyer modéré) sur des bases régionales et nationales (en particulier les entreprises sociales de l’habitat, ou ESH) et la réforme des dispositifs d’accession à la propriété, dans le cadre du projet de loi de finances 2011. L’un ...
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Le 8 juillet 2010, le Parlement européen réuni en séance plénière à Strasbourg a approuvé les principes généraux du Service européen d’action extérieure (SEAE) à une très large majorité. L’adoption de l’accord sur le SEAE est révélatrice d’un certain nombre d’évolutions actuelles ou à venir, conséquences directes de l’adoption du traité de Lisbonne. Elle manifeste, au premier chef, le renforcement du rôle du Parlement européen.
Les enquêtes barométriques sur les opinions et les aspirations des Français sont plutôt rares et sous-exploitées. On présentera ici les principaux résultats, en série longue, de l’enquête réalisée tous les ans, depuis 2000, (sauf en 2003) par l’Institut BVA, pour la DREES (Direction de la recherche, des études, de l’évaluation et des statistiques) du ministère des Affaires sociales. L’objectif de cette étude est de disposer d’un instrument qui, depuis une décennie maintenant, permet de mesurer ...
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Alain Parant begins by stressing, contrary to readily accepted opinion, that, though France is exceptional in the European demographic context in having an appreciably higher fertility rate, the scale of this must not be overstated.
Analyzing how fertility has changed over time, he highlights a risk of increased infertility inherent in the shift towards a later average age of childbearing and shows how, as a result of variations in birth rates observed over a century and the major trend of increasing life-expectancy, the French age pyramid, like that of the other European countries, will inevitably be skewed in the coming decades and how the proportion of older people within the total population will increase.
Parant moves on to the effects of demographic ageing on the pensions system. He reports the latest predictions of the Conseil d’orientation des retraites (COR; Council for Guidance on Pensions), which reveal the magnitude of the challenge facing France, whatever the mix of measures chosen (increased levies, reduction of the purchasing power of old-age pensions or an extension of the period of occupational activity).
However, states Parant, the funding of pensions is only one problem among others. Increased healthcare expenditure, arising particularly from the higher number of dependent people of very advanced age, represents an equally important challenge, on which he offers various projections.
Warning against placing excessive trust in family solidarity, because the family is becoming a more uncertain source of support, he highlights the issues that ensue from rising healthcare costs and the socialization of the dependency risk.
By way of introduction to his article, Didier Blanchet recalls two essential facts: that the number of persons aged 60 or over can currently be expected to increase, whilst the working-age population seems likely to stabilize (insofar as we are speaking still of those in the age range 20-59); and that expenditure on pensions as a proportion of GDP (13% at present) will increase correlatively in a way that is likely to continue, particularly if economic growth is weak (and assuming that retirement pensions remain at a stable level, the current replacement rate running at around 65%).
Blanchet goes on to recall the various simulations carried out for France by the Conseil d’orientation des retraites (COR; Council for Guidance on Pensions) since the early 2000s, and the impact of the reforms introduced in 1993 and 2003, showing what would have happened if these had not been adopted, first assuming a favourable economic situation, then in the much more worrying context resulting from the economic crisis and the poor economic prospects of the coming years. In so doing, he shows, in effect, the major consequences of that crisis and the very rapid deterioration of the pensions to GDP ratio. In this way he brings out the crucial role of three variables: total pension costs, rate of growth of GDP and the age at which the French begin to draw their pensions.
Having laid out the relation between these figures and shown by how much pensioners’ income would be reduced if nothing were done, Didier Blanchet — basing himself throughout on the most recent publications of the COR — stresses the need to adjust the pensionable age through two measures that will have effects on varying time-scales: on the one hand, raising the legal pensionable age and, on the other, increasing the number of years of contributions required to enjoy a full pension.
Arnauld d’Yvoire proviides an overview of the pension systems in force in Europe here, recapping the philosophy that presided over their development. He thus distinguishes aptly between three general models that have, admittedly, evolved over time:
— Pension systems of the Bismarckian type, based on the principle of social insurance. These are organized on occupational lines and managed by the social partners. Their funding is based, in the main, on employers’ and employees’ contributions, and pension rights are closely linked to the period over which contributions have been made and the level of pay. This model applies particularly in Germany, Italy, Greece and France.
— Pensions systems of the Beveridgian type which depend essentially on the state. From the outset, these have no connection to occupational activity and provide retired people with a basic pension to which supplementary schemes may be added based on the capitalization principle (pension funds).
— The pensions systems promoted by the World Bank in the countries of Eastern Europe after the break-up of the Soviet Union, which have three pillars to them. Two of these pillars are obligatory: a basic pension of a Bismarckian kind on a pay-as-you-go basis and a second, funded pillar.
Arnauld d’Yvoire emphasizes, however, that all these systems have necessarily undergone some development and no longer correspond to the pure model that presided over their introduction. He stresses the fact that, in all countries — though admittedly at different dates and with differing degrees of anticipation — reforms have been undertaken aimed at restraining the increased expenditure associated with retirement pensions. This has been done through two measures: increasing the number of years of occupational activity, and promoting savings to offset the relative fall in basic pensions. He shows, in this way, that some countries have, much earlier than others, made the necessary arrangements to cope with the inevitable ageing of the population and the increase in pension costs. He also shows that, though none has found a ‘dream solution’ to the problem, each has tried with varying degrees of anticipation to adapt to a new, but easily foreseeable, situation.
There is no one single pensions system in France. Alongside the schemes that apply to general employees, there are various others, beginning with those covering workers in the agricultural sector, the public sector and — lest we forget — the so-called “special schemes” which are themselves very diverse and cover 4.5 million contributors and some 3,4 million pensioners today.
Despite the relatively small proportion of pensions that the special schemes represent, the role they play is an emblematic one, since they symbolize the last bastion of social resistance that the Juppé Plan failed to shake in 1995. The resultant trauma was such that the special schemes were deliberately excluded from the pensions reform law of 21 August 2003, and were only reparameterized later, after the salary measures that accompanied the reform were negotiated, somewhat secretively, within the public-sector companies.
Stéphane Hamayon, co-author of a reference work on the subject, provides an account here of the adaptations and reforms that have been made to three of these schemes: those of the SNCF (the French nationalized railway company), the RATP (the Paris regional transport authority) and the IEG (Electrical and Gas Industries). We now know that that special regimes will not be affected by the 2010 reform. Does the extent of other recent reforms justify the retention of the status quo in this area? The analysis developed by Hamayon goes some way towards answering this central question.
Le débat « capitalisation vs répartition » est actuellement occulté en France, comme si les pouvoirs publics estimaient la mixité de ces deux systèmes – qui, pourtant, est appliquée dans plusieurs pays du monde – inconcevable en France. À ce propos, François Charpentier a évoqué l’anecdote curieuse de Guillaume Sarkozy, frère du Président Nicolas qui, à la tête du groupe paritaire de retraite et de prévoyance Malakoff Médéric, projette de constituer une filiale commune avec la CNP (Caisse nationale de Prévoyance) pour créer ...
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L’indice de perception de la corruption (IPC) 2009 , publié en novembre dernier, rappelle que les pays développés sont eux aussi concernés par la corruption du secteur public. Ainsi, au sein de l’Union européenne, la dégradation de l’intégrité depuis 2004 doit davantage aux pays membres de longue date qu’aux nouveaux États membres. Or, selon une étude récente de la Banque mondiale, la corruption dans les pays développés pourrait être une des causes de la perte de confiance ...
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Face à l’urgence de réformer le système des retraites, Jacques Bichot tient un discours clair et de bon sens : l’Occident « se la coule douce » depuis la fin des Trente Glorieuses, mais il a « mangé son pain blanc ». Pour conserver un niveau de vie acceptable, il va devoir trouver un système adapté à la nouvelle réalité économique, qui revalorise le travail et rende les citoyens libres et responsables de leur sort. Jacques Bichot estime que ce nouveau système pourrait ...
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« À l’horizon de 2015 et au-delà, il ne fait pas de doute que nous pouvons atteindre l’objectif ultime : nous pouvons éliminer la pauvreté. Dans la majorité des cas, l’expérience a prouvé la validité des accords du passé sur la voie à suivre ; en d’autres termes, nous savons ce qu’il faut faire. Mais cela exige un effort indéfectible, collectif et de longue durée ». Ban Ki-moon, Rapport sur les Objectifs du Millénaire pour le développement, 2008. De ...
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La question des « enfants pauvres » (c’est-à-dire des enfants vivant dans des ménages considérés comme pauvres) prend une place grandissante sur l’agenda politique depuis une dizaine d’années. Alors que la pauvreté, en moyenne, se stabilise, la pauvreté infantile augmente significativement, plaçant la France parmi les mauvais élèves européens.
Despite the problem being flagged up in the late 1980s by the World Health Organization’s Commission on Health Research for Development, even today research and development activities in the field of health focus mainly on diseases affecting the peoples of the rich countries. This in part explains why, as Jean-Paul Moatti and Jean-François Delfraissy point out here, “more than a billion human beings, almost all of whom live in tropical and subtropical regions, are currently suffering from one or more neglected diseases”.
The authors do, however, see some minor development. Because of globalization, which increases the risk of pandemics, the rich countries are realizing that “their” health also depends on better protection for the whole of the world’s population. This new awareness underlay the drafting of the Millennium Objectives for Development in 2000, in which the international community committed itself, among other things, to redoubling its efforts to fight AIDS, tuberculosis and malaria.
However, Moatti and Delfraissy stress that these efforts are still insufficient. It is, in their view, necessary to go further today, for example, by strengthening multilateral instruments like the WHO or by increasing the number of North-South partnerships. As they see it, it is urgent for research at last to be regarded as a “global public good”.
La Bibliographie prospective du mois de mai 2010 consacre son Focus au rapport de la Commission européenne sur la stratégie économique que pourrait adopter l'Union européenne à l'horizon 2020, en remplacement de la stratégie de Lisbonne. Afin de surmonter ses faiblesses, mises au jour par la crise, l'UE, selon la Commission européenne, pourrait s'appuyer sur une croissance à la fois intelligente, durable et inclusive. Vous trouverez par ailleurs, et comme chaque mois, une sélection de comptes ...
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By way of introduction to our special dossier on infectious diseases, Nicolas Simon reminds us here of some of the dramatic episodes they have occasioned in the past. He also points up the successes achieved in the struggle against smallpox, for example, while underscoring the extent of the HIV/AIDS and malaria epidemics, which mainly affect populations in the less developed countries.
However, he stresses the scale of the effort put in by the international community since the mid-1990s and the beneficial effects that have ensued. He thus shows how disastrous it would be if that effort slackened and stresses, in very timely fashion, the need to continue with and, indeed, intensify it. He also emphasizes the lead role certain countries and the NGOs and foundations can play to this effect, including through an institution as remarkable as the “Global Fund to Fight AIDS, Tuberculosis and Malaria”. But let us make no mistake, says Nicolas Simon, it is, once again, a question of priorities.
Having remained silent about, and absent from, the struggle against malaria for a long period, the international community finally roused itself in the late 1990s and began to combat the disease on a “massive” scale. It is an illness entirely eradicated in the advanced countries, but one that still rages in poor ones, with almost a million dying each year, mainly in sub-Saharan Africa. It attacks those who are most vulnerable: namely, women, the under-fives, those with HIV/AIDS and displaced people.
Malaria is a “disease of poverty”, as Michèle Barzach and Sylvie Chantereau stress here. “As an individual and collective factor of social destabilization”, it hits the countries it affects hard in both economic and social terms. “Malaria can account for more than 50% of the expenditure of households coping with it directly”, note the authors. It is estimated to cost “sub-Saharan Africa more than 12 billion dollars in lost GDP”.
Yet it is an avoidable disease, thanks to some effective treatments and means of prevention, observe Michèle Barzach and Sylvie Chantereau. This is something the international community has realized, having for some ten years now carried on an unprecedented struggle against malaria, with funding that has risen from less than 100 million dollars in 2003 to 2 billion in 2009. In this context, the authors assert without hesitation that “all the conditions are in place today for malaria to be effectively controlled in all the affected areas of the globe, and even eliminated in some countries”. They stress, however, that the current research and funding effort has to be maintained if this is to happen.
In March 2009, there was an outbreak of the Influenza A (H1N1) virus in Mexico. By the end of May it had killed 45 Mexicans, contaminated almost 3,800 and there were more than 10,000 confirmed cases throughout the world, 5,500 of them in the United States. On 11 June, with the virus affecting more than 27,000 persons in 74 countries, the World Health Organization (WHO) declared a level 6 maximum alert or, in other words, a state of global pandemic.
This pandemic turned out to be a “very active epidemic of moderate seriousness, but temporally atypical,’ as William Dab and Nina Testut put it here, stressing the unpredictable character of the development of all influenza viruses. “The management of influenza epidemics is basically a management of uncertainty”, say the authors, going on to observe that “it is impossible to manage a health security risk that includes a significant degree of uncertainty without the trust of stakeholders”.
Given this observation, William Dab et Nina Testut make an initial assessment of the way the pandemic was managed in France, define the reasons for — and role of — the “wave of polemics” that has accompanied this health crisis since last Summer, and examine the way the French perceived these various elements. “This H1N1 virus will, in the end, have taught us much we didn’t know about French society”, stress the two authors.
Les questions de santé sont devenues un sujet d’actualité et un sujet politique,comme le montre l’intérêt pour la gestion de la grippe A (H1N1) ou pour les comptes de l’Assurance maladie. Il s’agit d’un phénomène nouveau, selon Didier Tabuteau, apparu depuis une vingtaine d’année suite à certains scandales de santé publique (affaire du sang contaminé, vache folle…). La structure très particulière du système de santé français permet d’ores et déjà d’anticiper ...
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At a moment when the exposure of public services to competition is gradually extending in France to such sectors as energy production and distribution, rail transport and postal services,
Jean-François Drevet examines the effects of liberalization, a process that has been spreading within the European Union since the late 1980s.
After delivering a mixed verdict on the earliest privatizations, most notably in telecommunications and air transport, Drevet highlights the worrying prospects for recent and current liberalizations. “How is the public interest to be reconciled with that of a private operator?” he asks, before raising the question of the current relevance of this policy, given the EU’s new objectives — namely territorial cohesion, energy security and combating climate change. He goes on to stress the importance, in this context, of the concept of “smart regulation”
Ce chapitre est extrait du Rapport Vigie 2016 de Futuribles International, qui propose un panorama structuré des connaissances et des incertitudes des experts que l'association a mobilisés pour explorer les évolutions des 15 à 35 prochaines années sur 11 thématiques.