Cette page regroupe l'ensemble des publications de Futuribles sur cette thématique (Vigie, revue, bibliographie, études, etc.)
Five years ago, at the time of the French presidential election in 2002, Futuribles drew up a list of twelve major questions facing the country to put to the candidates. What is France's position in 2007? How has the country changed, and - above all -what challenges await the next President?
Michel Drancourt sets out here some of the issues that a future French President must tackle within the next ten years (i.e. two presidential terms). France has changed, he says, and the French, as they choose their future President, must be aware that these changes will continue to occur and that the direction of change lies in their hands. The future government, for its part, will have to convince the public to support what it does, according to Michel Drancourt.
In the end, he argues, how effective the measures to bring about change in France will be depends on how the means available to the country are used. The author lists four: making the most of its human resources, strengthening the European Union, mobilizing the French people and improving management.
We print here an extract, ahead of publication, from the new book by Edgard Pisani, Vive la révolte! (Hurray for Revolt), which is due out in early November of 2006 (Paris: Seuil). The extract is from a chapter entitled "Aims and method: starting from needs". According to the author's own terms, "whether as witnesses or active participants, we are living through a fascinating, demanding and dangerous period. One story is over, another seems to be beginning but we are having trouble following what it's about and meanwhile the clumsiness and the impotence of politics stirs up in each one of us feelings of disquiet and revolt."
Edgard Pisani starts from this observation, on which he enlarges in the first part of the book, and argues that politics as we see it in France today cannot play the rôle expected of it, that "central and local government have been subjected to over-eager treatment, which was not based on a clear diagnosis nor guided by a clear vision". He makes a plea in the book for the rehabilitation of politics - a return to politics in its noblest form.
In particular, in the chapter we reprint here, he insists on the need for "systemic reform" and he sets out the goals and the methods this requires.
Jacques Commaille, qui se définit lui-même comme un sociologue qui, depuis quelques années, s'est donné pour objectif de travailler sur la justice dans une perspective de sociologie politique, dans le cadre l'Institut des sciences sociales du politique, est venu aborder à Futuribles la question de la judiciarisation de la société française. Première question dans son exposé : peut-on parler de judiciarisation ? Effectivement, le terme est utilisé pour désigner ce qui serait une extension du rôle de la justice comme ...
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The current trend towards making the European economy more "flexible" (in line with the American model) could well turn out to be counter-productive, according to Richard Layard, a researcher at the London School of Economics, in his book Happiness (New York: Penguin Press, 2005), which is reviewed here by Hedva Sarfati. He maintains that this trend threatens to undermine people's feelings of confidence in their social and economic system; and yet the degree of mutual trust is a key factor in ensuring the well-being of a society and, in turn, its economic progress.
Arguing that effective well-being (both individual and collective) should be taken into account in economics, Richard Layard sets out the basic principles required in order to create happiness in society and formulates some recommendations for ways of implementing them. Hedva Sarfati summarizes them, pointing out that the author should be heeded, in view of the active role that he played in advising the British government between 1997 and 2001.
The fact that the candidate of the far Right-wing Party, Jean-Marie Le Pen, reached the second-round run-off in the election for French President on 21 April 2002 made a big impression on everyone in France. Against a background of social unrest and disillusionment with the main political parties, around 17% of the French electorate voted for the leader of the extreme Right-wing party whose campaign message was largely nationalistic. Were more French people really opposed to the presence of recent immigrants or those of foreign descent at the start of the new millennium? This is far from certain, according to Guillaume Roux.
The author looks at xenophobia in France over the long term and how it has changed, both in general and when the population is broken down by age and by attitudes to different minorities, as well as in comparison with other countries (the United States and others in Europe). He argues that the long-term trend is in fact towards a decline in xenophobia in France. And although certain events, such as the riots in November 2005, may cause sudden blips in the observed trends, factors such as the arrival on the scene of new generations (younger people turn out to be more tolerant than their elders), the general improvement in levels of education or overall changes in people's values suggest that this long-term trend is likely to last.
Lors du Conseil des ministres du mercredi 11 janvier 2006, le gouvernement de Dominique de Villepin a présenté, sous la responsabilité du ministre de l'Emploi, de la Cohésion sociale et du Logement, Jean-Louis Borloo, et du ministre délégué à la Promotion de l'égalité des chances, Azouz Begag, le projet de loi pour l'égalité des chances qui est une des réponses du gouvernement français aux événements des banlieues de novembre 2005. Ce texte contient de nombreuses mesures concernant ...
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Fin octobre 2005, Dominique de Villepin annonçait le remplacement du Commissariat général du Plan par un Centre d'analyse stratégique. Depuis début décembre, Sophie Boissard était chargée de préparer cette transition qui n'allait pas de soi, loin s'en faut. Diplômée de l’ENA (École nationale d’administration) et de l’ENS (École normale supérieure), elle a commencé sa carrière au Conseil d’État, dont elle est maître des requêtes. Depuis 2004, elle était directrice adjointe puis directrice du ...
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People often - in France, in particular - contrast the way the pensions systems work in Europe with the system in the United States, the former being labelled broadly "state-run", whereas the latter is based exclusively on capitalization. Yet the reality is far more complex than it appears, as Charles du Granrut argues here: the American system does not rely entirely on capitalization and pension funds; public authorities also play an important role.
Charles du Granrut first outlines the main features of the American pension arrangements (social security, private systems, capitalization...) and how they contribute to the income of retired Americans. He goes on to analyse the main trends highlighted in various recent reports. As he emphasizes, the ageing of the population will undoubtedly have a major impact on the state pension system as the reserves seem to be condemned to run out if the way the system works is not reformed. And the supplementary pension schemes, as they stand, are far from being able to make up for the shortfall in the reserves of the state system, largely because the pension funds have been underfunded and American households save too little.
Like Europe, the United States is therefore at risk of encountering major problems with regard to financing pensions in the coming decades, with potentially serious consequences for intergenerational fairness and for the standard of living of the elderly. But perhaps America will be able to cope more easily, thanks to the flexibility created by the fragmented nature of the system
Ce chapitre est extrait du Rapport Vigie 2016 de Futuribles International, qui propose un panorama structuré des connaissances et des incertitudes des experts que l'association a mobilisés pour explorer les évolutions des 15 à 35 prochaines années sur 11 thématiques.