Cette page regroupe l'ensemble des publications de Futuribles sur cette thématique (Vigie, revue, bibliographie, études, etc.)
This article will appear just as the new President of France takes office. Whoever that person is would do well to take note of it quickly since its message is striking, drawing attention to the enormous proliferation of legal norms (in particular laws and regulations) in France in recent years, but which has had the effect of reducing their efficacy and clarity.
According to Jacques Bichot, France suffers from a problem of regulatory hyperinflation that is regularly highlighted by its top-level institutions (above all the Conseil d'État): the annual compendium of laws for 2004 contained eight and a half times as many pages of legislation as in 1973. This would not matter so much if the laws were clear, but this is far from true, he argues, because it is extremely rare for a new standard to replace an earlier one. What tends to happen instead is for regulations to be piled on top of each other without being simplified. The worst culprits are the policy-makers, especially in central government ministries - the government having now overtaken the parliament as the main initiator of legislation in France.
What makes matters worse is that, even though they are the victims of this development, the population and businesses go along with it, feeling that there is no alternative to the state (and therefore its laws) to deal with their varied grievances. The result is a vicious circle of more and more rules and regulations that are less and less effective. In most areas, the proliferation of these half-measures basically allows the authorities to avoid undertaking proper reforms, which have become too costly. Yet, as Jacques Bichot says, it is essential for democracy that standards should be straightforward. Unless there is a major upheaval involving governments surviving longer and improved powers for parliament to make laws, and unless there is a fundamental change of mindset, France is going to become thoroughly entangled in red tape.
Aurélien Boutaud is concerned that politicians are unable properly to take account of environmental issues and tries to explain why this is. Although nowadays everyone talks blithely about sustainable development, elected representatives (or the candidates for the French presidential election) probably have little real idea that such development challenges the very concept of the common interest which, in the course of time, has come to be defined as "the package of individual interests shared by the largest number of voters".
Yet in fact, sustainable development implies not only a return to the mediaeval concept of "the common good", but also that this should be understood with regard to both the long term, so as to take account of future generations, as well as to the whole of the planet and not just the narrow confines of the nation-state. Nobody today in the so-called representative democracies considers the interests of all humankind, let alone those of future generations. Politicians (including presidential candidates) look no further than the views of current voters, who basically remain indifferent to the important issues affecting the sustainability of the ecosystem.
Having made this gloomy but quite realistic assessment, the author goes on to explore in what ways, by means of which bodies and new methods of public consultation, the long-term collective interest of the whole planet could be taken into account more satisfactorily. While we await the coming of a hypothetical global democracy, Aurélien Boutaud examines what contribution might be made by conferences of citizens and what form the principle of interactive subsidiarity might take.
In short, this article puts an important question: what capacity to democratic systems - where they exist - have to take account of the views of all those who are not fortunate enough to be able to take part in elections.
Le succès de l’ouvrage a étonné l’auteur. En effet, il s’agit avant tout d’une courte tentative de synthèse de beaucoup de ses travaux antérieurs, une sorte de rapport d’étape. La plupart des idées et analyses qui le composent ont été plus ou moins développées dans de précédents ouvrages de Jacques Attali (Histoires du temps ; Dictionnaire du XXIè siècle. Paris : Fayard, respectivement 1982 et 1998, etc.). Trois principes le guident lorsqu’il s’interroge sur l ...
(108 more words)
French local authorities are currently doing more and more to improve their communications infrastructures, as can be seen from the figure published in January 2007 by the Association of Cities and Local Authorities for Electronic Communications: 448 million Euros were invested in public open-access networks in 2006. But what kind of initiatives are these? There are as many forms of intervention as there are local authorities, and this diversity is a good thing.
Nevertheless, digital technologies are such an important factor in people's everyday lives, in local development and planning, and in a region's competitiveness that it would be suicidal for local authorities to make commitments in this field without a great deal of prior strategic thinking, especially given the wide range of actors involved who are powerful and in competition with each other. How can the local authorities find a way, between the state (the monopoly provider in the past), the new generation of providers and the equipment manufacturers, to create local public access to very high bandwidth networks without themselves having to finance investments that should really be the responsibility of the other actors just mentioned?
Agnès Huet and Pascal Buléon offer their view of this important issue. They do not avoid discussing either the technical debates or the selfish behaviour of some of the actors who try to make the local authorities provide funding without giving them any decision-making capacity. Hardly a week passes without some spectacular initiative somewhere in the world to improve local digital access, such as the free wi-fi offered in San Francisco by Google, but it is obvious that in this race, there will be winners and losers. The authors plead the case here that the losers in France should not be the local authorities and, ultimately, the users.
Le Conseil d'orientation des retraites a dressé en mars 2006 de nouvelles perspectives à long terme des régimes de retraite, notamment en tenant compte des effets estimés de la réforme de 2003. Ces nouvelles projections fournissent en particulier un éclairage sur l'ampleur des besoins de financement des régimes de retraite, aux horizons 2020 et 2050. Ce rapport s'efforce d'approfondir la réflexion et de mettre en évidence les questions à traiter et les orientations à définir pour ...
(253 more words)
L'IPTS a demandé à TNO (Netherlands Organisation for Applied Scientific Research) et DNI (Danish Technological Institute) de fournir aux décideurs politiques des éclairages pour les politiques futures sur l'e-gouvernement, qui va au-delà de l'administration électronique ou de la modernisation de l'État. Les trois premières étapes de l'étude ont contribué à préciser 1) les technologies de l'information et de la communication (TIC), 2) les tâches et les rôles des gouvernements, et 3) leurs effets combinés ...
(868 more words)
Ce chapitre est extrait du Rapport Vigie 2016 de Futuribles International, qui propose un panorama structuré des connaissances et des incertitudes des experts que l'association a mobilisés pour explorer les évolutions des 15 à 35 prochaines années sur 11 thématiques.