Institutions

Cette page regroupe l'ensemble des publications de Futuribles sur cette thématique (Vigie, revue, bibliographie, études, etc.)

Bibliography

Institutions - Territoires, réseaux

L’État face aux futurs des territoires

Il s’agissait de « procéder à une évaluation des différentes démarches de prospective territoriale suivies en 2006-2007 par l'atelier des référents (cadres volontaires des DRE ou DDE assurant l’animation et le suivi des dix expérimentations conduites par leur service déconcentré) et à leur analyse comparée. Ces travaux et la mise en perspective de leurs résultats doivent permettre d’apprécier l’intérêt et la pertinence des démarches de prospective territoriale pour faciliter l’élaboration concertée de stratégies de développement ...

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Bibliography

Institutions

L’avenir de la fonction publique territoriale

Le Centre Interdépartemental de gestion de la Grande Couronne et l'Université Paris 2 Panthéon-Assas se sont associés pour faire le point sur l'organisation actuelle de la fonction publique territoriale et ses possibilités d'évolution. La rencontre, qui a eu lieu le 21 mai 2007 au Palais du Luxembourg, s'est structurée autour de trois tables rondes : " Vers une politisation de la haute administration territoriale ? " ; " Les collectivités territoriales, des employeurs comme les autres ? " ; " Vers une refonte du modèle français ...

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Bibliography

Institutions

L’État des inégalités en France 2009. Données et analyses

Une véritable culture de l’information statistique fait défaut en France, portant préjudice à toute étude des inégalités. C’est ainsi que l’Observatoire des inégalités justifie la production de cet ouvrage de synthèse sur les inégalités. Selon l’institut, au milieu d’un désert d’information, il faut éviter la langue de bois des pouvoirs publics tout autant que le catastrophisme de certaines études. L’État des inégalités en France 2009 propose à cette fin une étude nuancée et ...

(541 more words)

Bibliography

Géopolitique - Institutions

Perspectivas económicas de América Latina 2009

Le Centre de développement de l'OCDE vient de publier son rapport annuel sur les perspectives économiques en Amérique latine, qui porte cette année sur la politique fiscale, considérée comme un élément essentiel pour le développement économique, la réduction de la pauvreté et des inégalités, dans un contexte économique difficile. En effet, l'Amérique latine ne devrait pas échapper au ralentissement économique mondial : la croissance soutenue dont a bénéficié la région, favorisée par des facteurs externes (prix élevés des produits ...

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Chapitre de rapport annuel vigie

Institutions - Population - Santé

Chapitre 10 du rapport Vigie 2007 : L’explosion du risque dépendance en France

Du fait du vieillissement démographique, un accroissement rapide du nombre et de la proportion des personnes âgées de 60 ou 65 ans ou plus est prévisible en France dans les décennies à venir mais, surtout, un accroissement encore plus rapide du nombre des personnes âgées de 80 ans ou plus. Or, les personnes très âgées souffrent de pathologies particulières auxquelles l’on se réfère souvent en parlant des problèmes de dépendance du grand âge. On pourrait retenir des projections réalisées ...

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Analyse prospective

Institutions - Population

L’Europe démographique aujourd’hui et demain

L’Europe — même limitée à l’espace communautaire — est une mosaïque d’entités et de peuples aux particularismes encore bien vivaces qui, globalement, se caractérisent par une très faible croissance démographique et par un vieillissement significativement plus marqué que la moyenne. Au cours des prochaines décennies, le vieillissement devrait connaître une très substantielle et générale avancée, indépendamment de l’évolution des phénomènes — fécondité, mortalité, mobilité des personnes — qui gouvernent la croissance des effectifs.

Futurs d'antan

Institutions

Human Rights according to Bobbio: a Utopia in the Making

The thoughts presented here as one of our "Futures of Yesteryear" by Bernard Cazes are taken from a book by Professor Norberto Bobbio (1909-2004), an important Italian political philosopher, which was published in French in 2007 by Le Seuil under the title Le Futur de la démocratie (The Future of Democracy). In it he analyses the progress and development of human rights in modern societies, a major trend involving the proliferation of new rights in every field. But while this undoubtedly means a real step forward for mankind, says Professor Bobbio, several obstacles could hinder further progress, such as the problem of relativity or the contradictory character of certain rights, not to mention the fact that "the international protection of human rights is perhaps not essential where it is possible, and much less possible where it is necessary".

Revue

Économie, emploi - Institutions

The Working Poor in France: From Low Earnings to Income Support?

The problem of people who work but do not earn enough to live on was not much discussed in France before 2000, but it seems to be attracting growing interest, which in itself suggests that their numbers are also rising. What is the true situation and what does the term "working poor" actually cover? These are the questions discussed here by Julien Damon.
How one defines "poor" and "worker" is crucial here: we need to be clear about what constitutes the poverty line and what is meant by "worker" (someone actually in work and/or unemployed?). Indeed, depending on how the terms are defined, the figures can vary enormously. Julien Damon opts for the literal meaning (those in work but living below the poverty line) and estimates the number of working poor in France at 1.6 million, a substantial figure but tending to fall since the mid 1990s.
This downward trend does not make the phenomenon any less scandalous (and viewed as such by public opinion), the author argues, and confronts the French system of social protection with its own contradictions and limitations. Reform is therefore urgent, and starting with the existing experiments with income support (RSA, revenu de solidarité active), and must be able to put an end to "poverty traps" whereby it can make more sense financially for an individual to draw social security rather than seek employment.

CR intervention d'expert

Institutions

Vers un traité européen simplifié ?

Depuis l'élection présidentielle française, les négociations s'intensifient pour sortir le traité constitutionnel de l'impasse créée par les référendums négatifs du printemps 2005. On esquissera ici, trois aspects du problème : - la question de fond du passage à l'union politique ; - les faiblesses institutionnelles de la construction actuelle ; - quelques pistes pour sortir de la crise avant 2009.

Forum

Institutions

Participative and Representative Democracy: a Plea for "Anthropolitics"

This is a somewhat unusual article in that it is based on a long letter from Pierre Gonod to Hugues de Jouvenel about the concept of "the common good", the links between foresight studies and politics, and what Pierre Gonod calls "anthropolitics". The letter is the latest in a lively correspondence in which Pierre Gonod reacted to various editorials in Futuribles, after Hugues de Jouvenel had declined to publish a long article that he had offered to Futuribles on "An alternative approach to foresight and politics", its style having been judged too abstruse.
Pierre Gonod favours "complex thinking" (which he distinguishes from systems analysis), and has long been a keen advocate for it. This has included trying to explore ways in which it could give a fresh impetus to foresight studies by suggesting new types of representation, taking greater account of the time dimension, and thus contributing to the development of a new political "praxeology".

Revue

Institutions

Domestic Security in France. The Role of the State

Sebastian Roché and Olivier Hassid provide here an account of their findings from a foresight study of the state's role in internal security in France undertaken for the Commissariat général du Plan. The study came to nothing when the Commissariat ceased to exist.
They first describe the present arrangements for ensuring domestic security in France: their weaknesses (lack of tools for forecasting and evaluation, structural unity, professional aspects, etc.) and their strengths (e.g. large and well-qualified staff, good co-ordination between different levels, coherent institutional set-up, network of actors). They then sketch the developing trends towards greater decentralization of security issues, the emergence of private security firms, public involvement, "Europeanization" of certain police functions...
Against this background, how might the role of the state in the management of domestic security evolve? To answer this question, the authors start by defining it more precisely: what aspects of this matter should the state be responsible for and in what way (for example, should it subcontract some of them?). The authors define a "hard core" of functions where the state can really do something to achieve improved security, mainly relating to ensuring human rights, efficiency of services and public satisfaction with the security provided. They then set out the various phases of public intervention in the matter of security.
Lastly, the authors propose some possible ways forward - in terms of security priorities, levels of action and relevant actors - in line with their "fitness" for the task: their ability to adapt and consequently how appropriate they are to deal with problems, judged against the background of international comparisons.

Revue

Institutions

France: Strangled by Red Tape?

This article will appear just as the new President of France takes office. Whoever that person is would do well to take note of it quickly since its message is striking, drawing attention to the enormous proliferation of legal norms (in particular laws and regulations) in France in recent years, but which has had the effect of reducing their efficacy and clarity.
According to Jacques Bichot, France suffers from a problem of regulatory hyperinflation that is regularly highlighted by its top-level institutions (above all the Conseil d'État): the annual compendium of laws for 2004 contained eight and a half times as many pages of legislation as in 1973. This would not matter so much if the laws were clear, but this is far from true, he argues, because it is extremely rare for a new standard to replace an earlier one. What tends to happen instead is for regulations to be piled on top of each other without being simplified. The worst culprits are the policy-makers, especially in central government ministries - the government having now overtaken the parliament as the main initiator of legislation in France.
What makes matters worse is that, even though they are the victims of this development, the population and businesses go along with it, feeling that there is no alternative to the state (and therefore its laws) to deal with their varied grievances. The result is a vicious circle of more and more rules and regulations that are less and less effective. In most areas, the proliferation of these half-measures basically allows the authorities to avoid undertaking proper reforms, which have become too costly. Yet, as Jacques Bichot says, it is essential for democracy that standards should be straightforward. Unless there is a major upheaval involving governments surviving longer and improved powers for parliament to make laws, and unless there is a fundamental change of mindset, France is going to become thoroughly entangled in red tape.

Chapitre Institutions

Ce chapitre est extrait du Rapport Vigie 2016 de Futuribles International, qui propose un panorama structuré des connaissances et des incertitudes des experts que l'association a mobilisés pour explorer les évolutions des 15 à 35 prochaines années sur 11 thématiques.