Institutions

Cette page regroupe l'ensemble des publications de Futuribles sur cette thématique (Vigie, revue, bibliographie, études, etc.)

Revue

Institutions - Territoires, réseaux

The Great European Cities in the Post-Crisis Period

How are we to rethink the European city today and direct it on to a path of more sustainable development? David Mangin, the author of a standard reference work on the mechanisms that led to the emergence of "unsustainable" cities (La Ville franchisée. Paris: Éditions de la Villette, 2004) offers here various lines of thinking for the benefit of decision-makers in the public realm - and particularly in the field of town planning.
After reminding us of the mechanisms that led to the totally car-dominated "franchized city", of which the great North American cities are particularly emblematic, he identifies the lines of action to be taken to reverse this trend (in terms of infrastructures, choice of housing, organization of space). He does this on at least two levels: the basic ville passante (sometimes translated as "busy city", the concept implies open flows between areas and a predominance of walking and cycling) and the metropolis. The key thing today is to limit urban sprawl by optimizing the underused spaces in cities and their inner suburbs, and by rendering inter-urban relations between the suburbs of the great metropolises more fluid, while taking into account the particularities of each individual area.

Revue

Institutions - Territoires, réseaux

European Cities in "Co-opetition"

In this issue, devoted in large measure to European cities, Futuribles opens its columns to Gérard Collomb, the mayor of Lyon. Lyon is the third-largest city in France in terms of population, but above all it is a city with strong European connections through its partnerships with other great metropolises.
Interviewed by Jean Haëntjens, Gérard Collomb relates how essential these collaborative initiatives between European cities are today, so that, on the one hand, cities do not merely submit to globalization, but actively participate in it through cooperation in key sectors (by way of competitiveness hubs, for example) and, on the other, a healthy level of emulation is maintained and local authorities are encouraged to make progress in the economic, scientific, environmental and other fields. In this respect, the "co-opetition" (a combination of the words co-operation and competition) established between European cities no doubt plays a crucial role, which this article enables us to grasp more clearly. It also encourages the big metropolises to devise new, more "sustainable" modes of urban development. Here, the European Union ought perhaps to operate at city rather than regional level in a number of strategic fields, such as housing and mobility.

Note de veille

Économie, emploi - Géopolitique - Institutions

L’Union des nations sud-américaines : quelles perspectives ?

À l’occasion du premier anniversaire de l’Union des nations sud-américaines (UNASUR), sa présidence tournante change en juin 2009. Le président équatorien Rafael Correa remplace ainsi la présidente chilienne Michelle Bachelet. Cette succession arrive alors que la jeune UNASUR peine à se développer et que son futur président apparaît d’ores et déjà comme une personnalité moins consensuelle que son prédécesseur, notamment en raison de son alliance avec le Vénézuélien Hugo Chavez et le Bolivien Evo Morales au sein ...

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Tribune européenne

Institutions - Territoires, réseaux

EU Action on Urban Matters

Should the European Union have an urban policy? This is a tricky question, given the highly local issues that pertain in many European cities and the principle of subsidiarity dominating European policy, which states that the lead on policy must be devolved to the lowest decision-making level. The European Union has, in fact, no urban policy properly so-called, but, as Jean-François Drevet reminds us here, it has been intervening in urban matters for some 20 years.
After a number of pilot schemes, in 1994 the European Commission launched a specific Action Programme called "Urban", which was relaunched for the period 2000-2006 and is outlined in this column. Since 2007, the Commission has intervened in urban matters mainly through regional policy and as part of efforts to improve the competitiveness of European territories. In future, it will probably be the (territorial, social and economic) cohesion policy that will be called upon to play a specific role in urban questions.

Revue

Institutions - Société, modes de vie - Territoires, réseaux

The "Cloud City". Twenty-first Century Urban Style

Jean Viard is a specialist in time-usage and the way it has evolved historically and also an expert on the regions of France and the mobility of individuals across those regions. In this issue of Futuribles, devoted, as it is, in very large measure to European cities, he makes a detailed analysis of the social developments that have been ongoing for several decades and their consequences for the relationship to space in general and to cities in particular.
In his view, 21st-century urban style will be that of the "cloud city". To put it another way, the urban style historically based on place is now no longer the monopoly of cities; it has gradually been "virtualized", becoming a "multi-site" phenomenon. Moreover, the increase in healthy-life expectancy in a context of shorter working hours has produced a veritable time revolution, and the impact of that revolution on social relations and the use of time (free time, working time, time for romance etc.) also has effects on urban organization. In this way, Jean Viard shows that, despite its no longer being the principal activity in French people's time, work is still too often the key element in the way housing, urban districts and entire cities are structured, whereas social demand is increasingly oriented towards leisure and focuses on places where people can meet, walk etc. He also shows the degree to which the culture of mobility influences the organization of urban space today, enabling this to extend far beyond the historic boundaries of towns and cities. And in this mobile society, new polarities of development and attractiveness are emerging, alongside new dangers of (spatial and generational) segregation. These are the major future challenges cities are going to have to face up to: they will have take on board the fact that employment is no longer their prime determinant; they will need to grow, to smarten themselves up and to advertise their attractiveness - to become "sustainable" so as to win the loyalty of today's residents and attract people in the future, whether it be tourists, entrepreneurs or ordinary citizens.

Note de veille

Institutions - Population - Santé

Le cancer, une menace mondiale sous-estimée

Selon le World Cancer Report de l’OMS (Organisation mondiale de la santé), il y avait, en 2008, 12,4 millions de cas déclarés de cancers dans le monde (dont une petite majorité d’hommes). Cette année-là, le cancer a provoqué le décès d’au moins 7,6 millions de personnes, soit un chiffre supérieur à ceux du sida (environ deux millions), de la tuberculose et du paludisme réunis (1). Selon l’organisation, à l’horizon 2030, le nombre de ...

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Note de veille

Économie, emploi - Éducation - Institutions

Vers un marché des étudiants internationaux ?

Les étudiants internationaux sont de plus en plus nombreux et représentent une aubaine alors que s’ouvre une compétition internationale des universités. Le recours aux agences de recrutement devrait permettre aux universités américaines de se rendre plus accessibles.

Futuribles

Institutions - Population

Bibliographie prospective n°72

La Bibliographie prospective du mois de juin 2009 consacre son Focus à une étude de la Commission européenne qui, s'appuyant sur les dernières projections démographiques d'Eurostat, propose de mesurer l'impact du vieillissement de la population européenne sur les dépenses budgétaires des États membres. Cinq postes seraient particulièrement affectés : les retraites, la santé, les soins et services aux personnes âgées, l'éducation et les indemnités de chômage. Vous trouverez par ailleurs, et comme chaque mois, une sélection de ...

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Futurs d'antan

Économie, emploi - Institutions

The "Dîme royale" (1706)

Vauban is known to most readers of Futuribles for his great achievements in the field of urban construction and military defensive structures (fortifications, waterways, parade grounds etc.), but we are often unaware of his freedom of thought and of the love of France and the French that inspired him.
The plan for the "dîme royale", which he proposed unsuccessfully to Louis XIV and eventually published without the king's permission in 1706 (leading to his banishment from the court), bears witness to this. In it we find arguments, quasi-revolutionary for his times, in favour of the introduction of a single impost proportional to individuals' incomes. The aim was to sweep away the arbitrariness and corruption that prevailed in matters of taxation throughout the kingdom and to put an end to the poverty and injustice afflicting the "humble folk". Vauban hoped that he would, by his proposal, be working for the common good. He argued also that it was through this fiscal openness and "fairness", and by the proper recognition of the value of the people who worked and produced the wealth of the kingdom, that France could continue to prosper in the most peaceful way possible. If such arguments had been heeded, they would perhaps have changed the course of French history, avoiding or delaying the emergence of the discontent that led to the Revolution.
We reproduce here a part of Vauban's preface to his "dîme royale" project in its original language (seventeenth-century French), preceded by an introduction by André Lebeau.

Tribune européenne

Institutions

What is to be Expected of the New European Parliament?

Complementing May's European column, in which he drew attention to France's lack of involvement where the European Parliament is concerned, this month Jean-François Drevet outlines the role and functioning of the European Parliament, together with the changes it will undergo once the Treaty of Lisbon comes into force. After recalling the powers it enjoys within the institutional framework of the - present and future - Union, he gives a detailed account of how the Parliament operates (where it meets, its multilingualism, how votes are taken etc.) and how the balance of power works (political groups, national interests etc.), particularly at the time of voting. As we can see, the Parliament has assumed a greater role in the European institutional sphere, as time has gone by, confirming the process of democratization of that sphere, a fact that European citizens should become aware of, in order better to defend the vision of Europe that is theirs.

Analyse prospective

Économie, emploi - Institutions

Une crise inédite suivie d’une reprise morose ?

S’il est présomptueux d’envisager la sortie de crise et prématuré de faire un bilan définitif, il semble nécessaire de poursuivre un travail d’analyse, surtout dans une perspective de moyen terme. L’analyse de la crise actuelle peut partir d’un constat en trois volets : une implosion du système financier, une récession très sévère et des mesures de politique économique sans équivalent historique. Cette combinaison d’éléments conduit à une crise inédite et encore largement imprévisible. Vu la ...

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Note de veille

Économie, emploi - Institutions

La révolution RSA n’aurait pas lieu ?

En France, le revenu de solidarité active (RSA) n'aurait qu'une portée limitée et quelques effets inattendus, selon les premiers résultats expérimentaux réunis par la Direction de la recherche, des études, de l'évaluation et des statistiques (DREES).

Futuribles

Institutions - Santé

Bibliographie prospective n°71

La Bibliographie prospective du mois de mai 2009 consacre son Focus aux nouvelles projections de la démographie médicale en France, à l'horizon 2030, réalisées par la DREES, projections particulièrement intéressantes au moment où est discuté un projet de loi "Hôpital, patients, santé et territoires" et où la question des "déserts médicaux" fait débat. Vous trouverez par ailleurs, et comme chaque mois, une sélection de comptes rendus de livres, études et rapports à dimension prospective, et plus particulièrement pour ce ...

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Revue

Institutions

The Future of the European Social Model. Reconciling Respect for Diversity with Social Policy Integration

The social dimension is often seen as the poor relation of European construction. On the one hand, EU advances in social policy often go unnoticed by the citizens; on the other, the great diversity of systems of social welfare, vocational training, social rights and wage policies etc. makes it very difficult to establish common rules in a 27-member Union. Nevertheless, the French Presidency of the European Union set itself the goal in 2008 of imparting a fresh impetus to social Europe. Was this wholly utopian? Are Europeans ready to let the "social" dimension into the sphere of their common policies?
Jean-Claude Barbier shows here how difficult it is to reconcile the diversity of European peoples with the integration of social policies. Quite apart from the linguistic obstacles, difficulties remain that are associated with the sense of national belonging, the geographical focus of administrations and social bodies, the essential place occupied by social welfare protection in democratic life in Europe and the legitimacy that states retain, in the eyes of their nationals, in the organization both of that protection and of solidarity in respect of social risks etc. Overall, Barbier stresses, national political communities remain very inward-looking when it comes to taking important social decisions.
Nonetheless, in the current context of economic crisis, the situation may change. Of the three future scenarios proposed by Jean-Claude Barbier - continuation of the status quo, a strengthening of social Europe in response to the crisis and the elimination of social Europe - it may well be that the development of a fresh impetus for European social policy prevails.

Tribune européenne

Institutions - Société, modes de vie

European Parliament: France not Sufficiently to the Fore

On 7 June 2009, the French - like the other citizens of Europe in that same month - will be going to the polls to elect their "Euro MPs" or, in other words, their direct representatives in the European Parliament for the next five years. There is a strong possibility that the turnout will once again be very low and/or that the voting will be influenced by national rather than European issues.
This lack of interest in the European elections arises, as Jean-François Drevet shows here, out of the general attitude of French politicians, who do not exactly throng to stand as Euro MPs or who, when elected to the European Parliament, involve themselves little, or not at all, in their parliamentary activities. It is also the product of the desperate lack of information in the French media about current European political matters. As this column demonstrates, this is highly regrettable, since it contributes to further reducing the influence of France in the institutions and decisions of the European Union. And this is all the more unfortunate as the European Parliament is about to see its powers strengthened. The time seems to have come to take a fresh approach to these elections, but, for that to happen, both the candidates and the media would have to play their part.

Note de veille

Géopolitique - Institutions

La prospective, outil de refondation du partenariat américano-russe

Des experts américains et russes veulent s'appuyer sur une démarche de construction de scénarios pour manifester l'intérêt de leurs deux pays à s'engager dans des coopérations dans les domaines énergétique, financier, environnemental.

Note de veille

Éducation - Entreprises, travail - Institutions

Les « charter schools » aux États-Unis : des écoles innovantes, et efficaces ?

Les charter schools (écoles à charte) que défend Barack Obama pourraient, selon la Brookings Institution, ne pas être la réforme la plus efficace pour améliorer le système d'enseignement secondaire américain.

Note de veille

Institutions - Société, modes de vie

Abolir les inégalités homme / femme au sein des systèmes de retraite européens

Entre droits propres et droits dérivés (familiaux ou de réversion), les modèles de retraite de cinq pays européens doivent, selon l'Institut national d'études démographiques, trouver une voie médiane pour prendre en compte la situation nouvelle des femmes dans les sociétés.

Tribune européenne

Institutions

Can the European Union Set Itself Limits?

After devoting his last two columns to studying the prospects for the enlargement of the European Union and the potential fresh impetus to be given to the European Neighbourhood Policy, Jean-François Drevet now turns his attention to the limits of European territory. Can the Union set itself physical limits and, if so, what are they to be?
As he shows here, the answer is complex: it must take account of the weight of history and of geography, of legal realities that emerge out of European construction and many other subtleties that make the definition of such limits tricky, if not indeed impossible. The borders of the Union, which are multiple and shifting, change with the status of the member states or associate countries - and even this is to leave out of account those policies that relate to topics which reach beyond its territorial framework. Ultimately, asks Jean-François Drevet, is it essential to the proper functioning of the Union that limits of this kind be defined?

Note de veille

Institutions - Société, modes de vie

Le retour des vieux pauvres ?

Principaux bénéficiaires de l'amélioration du niveau de vie ces 30 dernières années, les retraités pourraient voir leur situation se dégrader rapidement.

Note de veille

Institutions - Santé

Vers une pénurie de médecins en France d’ici 2020-2030 ?

Le vieillissement de la population, s'il représente un défi pour la société française dans son ensemble, pose en premier lieu la question de la capacité du pays à assurer des besoins médicaux croissants. Des pénuries de médecins sont signalées depuis au moins 10 ans par l'Ordre des médecins et, selon une récente étude de la DREES (Direction de la recherche, des études, de l'évaluation et des statistiques), la démographie médicale française pourrait devenir préoccupante à l'avenir ...

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Note de veille

Institutions - Société, modes de vie

Le bonheur est-il mesurable ?

La New Economics Foundation (NEF), think-tank britannique, vient d'élaborer, en partenariat avec l'université de Cambridge et l'European Social Survey, un indicateur du bien-être des populations destiné à compléter et / ou remplacer le produit intérieur brut (PIB).

CR intervention d'expert

Économie, emploi - Institutions

L’Union européenne et la tempête économique

Jean-François Drevet, ancien fonctionnaire à la Commission européenne, est responsable de la Tribune européenne de la revue Futuribles. Il a proposé une analyse des conséquences de la crise actuelle sur les pays européens et sur L’Union européenne.

Note de veille

Économie, emploi - Institutions

La retraite en France à 62,4 ans en 2020 ?

Selon une projection du Centre d'études de l'emploi (CEE), l'âge moyen de départ à la retraite devrait être de 62,4 ans en 2020, contre 60,5 ans en 2005. Ce recul serait principalement le fruit de l'allongement de la scolarité obligatoire et de la réforme de 1993.

Note de veille

Économie, emploi - Institutions

Les régimes de retraite des PED menacés par la crise financière

Dans un rapport récent (1), la Banque mondiale questionne les retombées de la crise financière sur les régimes de retraite de certains pays en développement (PED) (2). De nombreux PED ont fait le choix d'un système mixte associant répartition et capitalisation (3). Dans quelle mesure la crise met-elle à mal ce choix, et comment, selon la Banque mondiale, ces pays doivent-ils y faire face ?

Chapitre Institutions

Ce chapitre est extrait du Rapport Vigie 2016 de Futuribles International, qui propose un panorama structuré des connaissances et des incertitudes des experts que l'association a mobilisés pour explorer les évolutions des 15 à 35 prochaines années sur 11 thématiques.