Institutions

Cette page regroupe l'ensemble des publications de Futuribles sur cette thématique (Vigie, revue, bibliographie, études, etc.)

Revue

Économie, emploi - Institutions - Population

Pension Systems in Europe

Arnauld d’Yvoire proviides an overview of the pension systems in force in Europe here, recapping the philosophy that presided over their development. He thus distinguishes aptly between three general models that have, admittedly, evolved over time:
— Pension systems of the Bismarckian type, based on the principle of social insurance. These are organized on occupational lines and managed by the social partners. Their funding is based, in the main, on employers’ and employees’ contributions, and pension rights are closely linked to the period over which contributions have been made and the level of pay. This model applies particularly in Germany, Italy, Greece and France.
— Pensions systems of the Beveridgian type which depend essentially on the state. From the outset, these have no connection to occupational activity and provide retired people with a basic pension to which supplementary schemes may be added based on the capitalization principle (pension funds).
— The pensions systems promoted by the World Bank in the countries of Eastern Europe after the break-up of the Soviet Union, which have three pillars to them. Two of these pillars are obligatory: a basic pension of a Bismarckian kind on a pay-as-you-go basis and a second, funded pillar.
Arnauld d’Yvoire emphasizes, however, that all these systems have necessarily undergone some development and no longer correspond to the pure model that presided over their introduction. He stresses the fact that, in all countries — though admittedly at different dates and with differing degrees of anticipation — reforms have been undertaken aimed at restraining the increased expenditure associated with retirement pensions. This has been done through two measures: increasing the number of years of occupational activity, and promoting savings to offset the relative fall in basic pensions. He shows, in this way, that some countries have, much earlier than others, made the necessary arrangements to cope with the inevitable ageing of the population and the increase in pension costs. He also shows that, though none has found a ‘dream solution’ to the problem, each has tried with varying degrees of anticipation to adapt to a new, but easily foreseeable, situation.

Revue

Institutions - Population - Société, modes de vie

Ageing and Social Protection in France. Pensions: One Challenge among Others

Alain Parant begins by stressing, contrary to readily accepted opinion, that, though France is exceptional in the European demographic context in having an appreciably higher fertility rate, the scale of this must not be overstated.
Analyzing how fertility has changed over time, he highlights a risk of increased infertility inherent in the shift towards a later average age of childbearing and shows how, as a result of variations in birth rates observed over a century and the major trend of increasing life-expectancy, the French age pyramid, like that of the other European countries, will inevitably be skewed in the coming decades and how the proportion of older people within the total population will increase.
Parant moves on to the effects of demographic ageing on the pensions system. He reports the latest predictions of the Conseil d’orientation des retraites (COR; Council for Guidance on Pensions), which reveal the magnitude of the challenge facing France, whatever the mix of measures chosen (increased levies, reduction of the purchasing power of old-age pensions or an extension of the period of occupational activity).
However, states Parant, the funding of pensions is only one problem among others. Increased healthcare expenditure, arising particularly from the higher number of dependent people of very advanced age, represents an equally important challenge, on which he offers various projections.
Warning against placing excessive trust in family solidarity, because the family is becoming a more uncertain source of support, he highlights the issues that ensue from rising healthcare costs and the socialization of the dependency risk.

Revue

Économie, emploi - Institutions - Population

Pensions: Revisiting the Facts and Figures

By way of introduction to his article, Didier Blanchet recalls two essential facts: that the number of persons aged 60 or over can currently be expected to increase, whilst the working-age population seems likely to stabilize (insofar as we are speaking still of those in the age range 20-59); and that expenditure on pensions as a proportion of GDP (13% at present) will increase correlatively in a way that is likely to continue, particularly if economic growth is weak (and assuming that retirement pensions remain at a stable level, the current replacement rate running at around 65%).
Blanchet goes on to recall the various simulations carried out for France by the Conseil d’orientation des retraites (COR; Council for Guidance on Pensions) since the early 2000s, and the impact of the reforms introduced in 1993 and 2003, showing what would have happened if these had not been adopted, first assuming a favourable economic situation, then in the much more worrying context resulting from the economic crisis and the poor economic prospects of the coming years. In so doing, he shows, in effect, the major consequences of that crisis and the very rapid deterioration of the pensions to GDP ratio. In this way he brings out the crucial role of three variables: total pension costs, rate of growth of GDP and the age at which the French begin to draw their pensions.
Having laid out the relation between these figures and shown by how much pensioners’ income would be reduced if nothing were done, Didier Blanchet — basing himself throughout on the most recent publications of the COR — stresses the need to adjust the pensionable age through two measures that will have effects on varying time-scales: on the one hand, raising the legal pensionable age and, on the other, increasing the number of years of contributions required to enjoy a full pension.

Revue

Institutions - Population

Special Pension Schemes: The Situation in France after the Reforms

There is no one single pensions system in France. Alongside the schemes that apply to general employees, there are various others, beginning with those covering workers in the agricultural sector, the public sector and — lest we forget — the so-called “special schemes” which are themselves very diverse and cover 4.5 million contributors and some 3,4 million pensioners today.
Despite the relatively small proportion of pensions that the special schemes represent, the role they play is an emblematic one, since they symbolize the last bastion of social resistance that the Juppé Plan failed to shake in 1995. The resultant trauma was such that the special schemes were deliberately excluded from the pensions reform law of 21 August 2003, and were only reparameterized later, after the salary measures that accompanied the reform were negotiated, somewhat secretively, within the public-sector companies.
Stéphane Hamayon, co-author of a reference work on the subject, provides an account here of the adaptations and reforms that have been made to three of these schemes: those of the SNCF (the French nationalized railway company), the RATP (the Paris regional transport authority) and the IEG (Electrical and Gas Industries). We now know that that special regimes will not be affected by the 2010 reform. Does the extent of other recent reforms justify the retention of the status quo in this area? The analysis developed by Hamayon goes some way towards answering this central question.

CR table ronde

Institutions

L’évolution du débat capitalisation versus répartition

Le débat « capitalisation vs répartition » est actuellement occulté en France, comme si les pouvoirs publics estimaient la mixité de ces deux systèmes – qui, pourtant, est appliquée dans plusieurs pays du monde – inconcevable en France. À ce propos, François Charpentier a évoqué l’anecdote curieuse de Guillaume Sarkozy, frère du Président Nicolas qui, à la tête du groupe paritaire de retraite et de prévoyance Malakoff Médéric, projette de constituer une filiale commune avec la CNP (Caisse nationale de Prévoyance) pour créer ...

(115 more words)

Note de veille

Institutions

Les pays développés touchés par la corruption

L’indice de perception de la corruption (IPC) 2009 , publié en novembre dernier, rappelle que les pays développés sont eux aussi concernés par la corruption du secteur public. Ainsi, au sein de l’Union européenne, la dégradation de l’intégrité depuis 2004 doit davantage aux pays membres de longue date qu’aux nouveaux États membres. Or, selon une étude récente de la Banque mondiale, la corruption dans les pays développés pourrait être une des causes de la perte de confiance ...

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CR table ronde

Institutions

Amorcer la réforme des retraites

Face à l’urgence de réformer le système des retraites, Jacques Bichot tient un discours clair et de bon sens : l’Occident « se la coule douce » depuis la fin des Trente Glorieuses, mais il a « mangé son pain blanc ». Pour conserver un niveau de vie acceptable, il va devoir trouver un système adapté à la nouvelle réalité économique, qui revalorise le travail et rende les citoyens libres et responsables de leur sort. Jacques Bichot estime que ce nouveau système pourrait ...

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Analyse prospective

Économie, emploi - Institutions

Les Objectifs du Millénaire pour le Développement aux deux tiers du chemin

« À l’horizon de 2015 et au-delà, il ne fait pas de doute que nous pouvons atteindre l’objectif ultime : nous pouvons éliminer la pauvreté. Dans la majorité des cas, l’expérience a prouvé la validité des accords du passé sur la voie à suivre ; en d’autres termes, nous savons ce qu’il faut faire. Mais cela exige un effort indéfectible, collectif et de longue durée ». Ban Ki-moon, Rapport sur les Objectifs du Millénaire pour le développement, 2008. De ...

(259 more words)

Note de veille

Institutions - Société, modes de vie

L’augmentation de la pauvreté des enfants

La question des « enfants pauvres » (c’est-à-dire des enfants vivant dans des ménages considérés comme pauvres) prend une place grandissante sur l’agenda politique depuis une dizaine d’années. Alors que la pauvreté, en moyenne, se stabilise, la pauvreté infantile augmente significativement, plaçant la France parmi les mauvais élèves européens.

Revue

Géopolitique - Institutions - Santé - Société, modes de vie

The Risks of an Influenza Pandemic: 2009 and After…

In March 2009, there was an outbreak of the Influenza A (H1N1) virus in Mexico. By the end of May it had killed 45 Mexicans, contaminated almost 3,800 and there were more than 10,000 confirmed cases throughout the world, 5,500 of them in the United States. On 11 June, with the virus affecting more than 27,000 persons in 74 countries, the World Health Organization (WHO) declared a level 6 maximum alert or, in other words, a state of global pandemic.
This pandemic turned out to be a “very active epidemic of moderate seriousness, but temporally atypical,’ as William Dab and Nina Testut put it here, stressing the unpredictable character of the development of all influenza viruses. “The management of influenza epidemics is basically a management of uncertainty”, say the authors, going on to observe that “it is impossible to manage a health security risk that includes a significant degree of uncertainty without the trust of stakeholders”.
Given this observation, William Dab et Nina Testut make an initial assessment of the way the pandemic was managed in France, define the reasons for — and role of — the “wave of polemics” that has accompanied this health crisis since last Summer, and examine the way the French perceived these various elements. “This H1N1 virus will, in the end, have taught us much we didn’t know about French society”, stress the two authors.

Revue

Géopolitique - Institutions - Santé

Research into Infectious Diseases. Global Biomedical Research: Between Neglect and Prioritization

Despite the problem being flagged up in the late 1980s by the World Health Organization’s Commission on Health Research for Development, even today research and development activities in the field of health focus mainly on diseases affecting the peoples of the rich countries. This in part explains why, as Jean-Paul Moatti and Jean-François Delfraissy point out here, “more than a billion human beings, almost all of whom live in tropical and subtropical regions, are currently suffering from one or more neglected diseases”.
The authors do, however, see some minor development. Because of globalization, which increases the risk of pandemics, the rich countries are realizing that “their” health also depends on better protection for the whole of the world’s population. This new awareness underlay the drafting of the Millennium Objectives for Development in 2000, in which the international community committed itself, among other things, to redoubling its efforts to fight AIDS, tuberculosis and malaria.
However, Moatti and Delfraissy stress that these efforts are still insufficient. It is, in their view, necessary to go further today, for example, by strengthening multilateral instruments like the WHO or by increasing the number of North-South partnerships. As they see it, it is urgent for research at last to be regarded as a “global public good”.

Futuribles

Économie, emploi - Institutions

Bibliographie prospective n°82

La Bibliographie prospective du mois de mai 2010 consacre son Focus au rapport de la Commission européenne sur la stratégie économique que pourrait adopter l'Union européenne à l'horizon 2020, en remplacement de la stratégie de Lisbonne. Afin de surmonter ses faiblesses, mises au jour par la crise, l'UE, selon la Commission européenne, pourrait s'appuyer sur une croissance à la fois intelligente, durable et inclusive. Vous trouverez par ailleurs, et comme chaque mois, une sélection de comptes ...

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Revue

Géopolitique - Institutions - Santé

The Challenge of Infectious Diseases

By way of introduction to our special dossier on infectious diseases, Nicolas Simon reminds us here of some of the dramatic episodes they have occasioned in the past. He also points up the successes achieved in the struggle against smallpox, for example, while underscoring the extent of the HIV/AIDS and malaria epidemics, which mainly affect populations in the less developed countries.
However, he stresses the scale of the effort put in by the international community since the mid-1990s and the beneficial effects that have ensued. He thus shows how disastrous it would be if that effort slackened and stresses, in very timely fashion, the need to continue with and, indeed, intensify it. He also emphasizes the lead role certain countries and the NGOs and foundations can play to this effect, including through an institution as remarkable as the “Global Fund to Fight AIDS, Tuberculosis and Malaria”. But let us make no mistake, says Nicolas Simon, it is, once again, a question of priorities.

Revue

Géopolitique - Institutions - Santé

The Battle against Malaria. A Victory that is within Reach

Having remained silent about, and absent from, the struggle against malaria for a long period, the international community finally roused itself in the late 1990s and began to combat the disease on a “massive” scale. It is an illness entirely eradicated in the advanced countries, but one that still rages in poor ones, with almost a million dying each year, mainly in sub-Saharan Africa. It attacks those who are most vulnerable: namely, women, the under-fives, those with HIV/AIDS and displaced people.
Malaria is a “disease of poverty”, as Michèle Barzach and Sylvie Chantereau stress here. “As an individual and collective factor of social destabilization”, it hits the countries it affects hard in both economic and social terms. “Malaria can account for more than 50% of the expenditure of households coping with it directly”, note the authors. It is estimated to cost “sub-Saharan Africa more than 12 billion dollars in lost GDP”.
Yet it is an avoidable disease, thanks to some effective treatments and means of prevention, observe Michèle Barzach and Sylvie Chantereau. This is something the international community has realized, having for some ten years now carried on an unprecedented struggle against malaria, with funding that has risen from less than 100 million dollars in 2003 to 2 billion in 2009. In this context, the authors assert without hesitation that “all the conditions are in place today for malaria to be effectively controlled in all the affected areas of the globe, and even eliminated in some countries”. They stress, however, that the current research and funding effort has to be maintained if this is to happen.

CR table ronde

Institutions

L’avenir de la Sécurité sociale

Les questions de santé sont devenues un sujet d’actualité et un sujet politique,comme le montre l’intérêt pour la gestion de la grippe A (H1N1) ou pour les comptes de l’Assurance maladie. Il s’agit d’un phénomène nouveau, selon Didier Tabuteau, apparu depuis une vingtaine d’année suite à certains scandales de santé publique (affaire du sang contaminé, vache folle…). La structure très particulière du système de santé français permet d’ores et déjà d’anticiper ...

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Tribune européenne

Géopolitique - Institutions

Europe and Public Services

At a moment when the exposure of public services to competition is gradually extending in France to such sectors as energy production and distribution, rail transport and postal services,
Jean-François Drevet examines the effects of liberalization, a process that has been spreading within the European Union since the late 1980s.
After delivering a mixed verdict on the earliest privatizations, most notably in telecommunications and air transport, Drevet highlights the worrying prospects for recent and current liberalizations. “How is the public interest to be reconciled with that of a private operator?” he asks, before raising the question of the current relevance of this policy, given the EU’s new objectives — namely territorial cohesion, energy security and combating climate change. He goes on to stress the importance, in this context, of the concept of “smart regulation”

CR intervention d'expert

Institutions

La réforme des collectivités territoriales en France : motifs, teneur et implications à moyen et à long terme

S’adressant aux membres partenaires de Futuribles International, Gérard MARCOU a souhaité présenter la question de la réforme territoriale de 2010 sous un angle prospectif. Il a donc appuyé son analyse prospective sur une rétrospective du système d’administration territoriale français. Il souhaite, plutôt que d’analyser la réforme en cours, proposer un cadre d’analyse permettant d’en apprécier le sens, les chances de succès et d’envisager des scénarios d’évolution possibles. Lui-même n’a d’ailleurs pas ...

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CR réunion pilotage vigie

Institutions

Réunion trimestrielle des membres partenaires

Déroulement de la réunion : • 14h-16h : Tour de table et échanges autour des centres d’intérêt des membres • 16h-18h : Exposé du professeur Gérard Marcou sur la réforme des collectivités territoriales en France

Note de veille

Institutions - Santé

Qui bénéficie de la hausse des dépenses de santé ?

Les dépenses de santé ne cessent de croître dans les pays de l’OCDE (Organisation de coopération et de développement économiques). Mais cette hausse bénéficie-t-elle de la même manière à tous les malades ? L’organisation et certains chercheurs constatent que des inégalités sociales fortes demeurent, et s’inquiètent du manque d’efficacité des assurances maladie.

Note de veille

Éducation - Institutions

Les services publics dédiés aux jeunes en Grande-Bretagne : l’échec instructif de Connexions

Lancé en 2001 en Angleterre, le système Connexions a été conçu afin d’unifier l’organisation des services d’accompagnement et de soutien des jeunes. La structure était innovante et paraissait prometteuse. Mais la stratégie comme l’organisation se révèlent en fait inefficaces, et le système a été fortement remanié en 2008. L’expérience Connexions permet cependant d’interroger les bonnes pratiques observées en Grande-Bretagne concernant l’organisation des pouvoirs publics dédiés aux jeunes : un thème qui mérite d’autant ...

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Revue

Économie, emploi - Institutions

What Future for the Carbon Tax in France? Economic Choices after the Constitutional Council Strikes Down the Government’s Bill

The Constitutional Council struck down the proposed carbon tax on 28 December 2009 because it infringed the principle of equal treatment in respect of public taxes within the company sector. The main reason cited by the Council was the exemption granted to all companies subject to the European CO2 quota system.
The combination of a national carbon tax with the European system of emissions trading in fact raises a twofold difficulty: a market mechanism for carbon pricing has to be made to co-exist with a fiscal pricing mechanism and, at the same time, European rules governing markets have to be made to converge with national rules.
To improve the scheme struck down by the Constitutional Council, it is necessary to revise the modalities for introducing the carbon tax into the company sector. To achieve this, it is useful to remember how the existing mechanisms function and what choices were made by those countries that have successfully introduced a national tax running parallel to the European CO2 quota system. This is the aim of this article, in which we also examine the different possible ways out of the present situation.

Forum

Institutions

Foresight and Politics. Or What Politicians have Taught me about Foresight Studies

Like foresight and strategy, foresight and politics make excellent bedfellows. They can barely do without each other. And yet, in this column, Jacques de Courson sets out to be determinedly provocative. Asserting first that “foresight and politics no longer... have anything to say to each other”, he stresses the disrepute into which foresight can be said to have fallen as a result of its experts’ short-sightedness and, above all, of the cult of urgency currently afflicting our elected representatives.
However, Jacques de Courson then explains why foresight and politics have to work together, given the degree to which politicians need effectively to anticipate events (exploratory foresight) and to be driven by a project, a vision of a desirable future or even to present themselves as the architects of a better one (unless they are merely to tell stories designed to bemuse their electors).
But Jacques de Courson also advises caution. Though the relationship between foresight and politics can be fertile, it can also lead to perverse practices. This is what happens when politics becomes mere spectacle and elected representatives mere “showmen”, when foresight studies are waylaid for purposes of entertainment — or even to bemuse the electorate — and politicians use them merely in order to strut the political stage.

Bibliography

Géopolitique - Institutions - Santé

« What Could Health and Health Care in the US Look Like in 2020 ? »

À quoi ressemblera la sécurité sociale aux États-Unis en 2020 ? Alors que la réforme visant à étendre la couverture sociale au sein de la population américaine vient d’être votée, l’Institute for the Future propose quatre scénarios pour les 10 prochaines années. Croissance : le boom de l’économie de la santé D’importantes avancées sont obtenues en biotechnologie et en génétique, permettant d’améliorer les traitements de nombreuses maladies. Les coûts d’accès aux soins ne diminuent pas mais ...

(481 more words)

CR table ronde

Géopolitique - Institutions

Les enjeux de la gouvernance mondiale

Face à la mondialisation croissante, donc à la montée des interdépendances et à la crise à la fois financière, économique, sociale et écologique actuelle, une véritable gouvernance mondiale paraît urgente. Or, l’Organisation des Nations Unies, dont les 192 pays membres disposent chacun d’une voix de poids égal, semble impuissante à prendre des décisions efficaces. Les initiatives récentes de « G7 » ou de « G20 » sont encore « en gestation incertaine », selon les termes d’Hugues de Jouvenel. La situation a vraisemblablement ...

(86 more words)

Analyse prospective

Géopolitique - Institutions

Quels avenirs pour les organisations interétatiques mondiales ?

L’intensification de la mondialisation et les problèmes qui émergent de ce phénomène de grande ampleur entraînent depuis quelques années des réflexions sur l’architecture des organisations interétatiques qui seraient nécessaires, à l’échelle mondiale, pour maîtriser ces nouveaux défis. Plusieurs initiatives et de nombreuses propositions peuvent déjà être mentionnées. Mais pour s’interroger sur l’avenir dans ce domaine, trois étapes préalables sont indispensables. La première concerne le passé de ces organisations, en distinguant les institutions créées avant la ...

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Chapitre Institutions

Ce chapitre est extrait du Rapport Vigie 2016 de Futuribles International, qui propose un panorama structuré des connaissances et des incertitudes des experts que l'association a mobilisés pour explorer les évolutions des 15 à 35 prochaines années sur 11 thématiques.