Cette page regroupe l'ensemble des publications de Futuribles sur cette thématique (Vigie, revue, bibliographie, études, etc.)
The last two years have perhaps marked a turning point in the — relatively peaceful — international relations that had prevailed in the developed world since the end of the Cold War. A wind of change has been perceptible for some time now, with the growing resonance of populist movements, particularly in Europe, a newly expansionist China and Russia, and the spread of Islamic terror onto European soil etc.
And, as Jean-François Drevet shows here, three recent events confirm that there is cause for concern: first, Brexit, the consequence of a form of populism that runs the risk of leaving the UK isolated on the international stage; second, the accession to power of Donald Trump, whose erratic behaviour in the diplomatic field — also tinged with populist overtones — is tending to cause or aggravate crises rather than resolve them; and, last, the clampdown in Turkey by President Erdo?an who, like Donald Trump, manages his foreign policy on an emotive basis, without always foreseeing the consequences. These three events are changing the way international relations are conducted and raise questions over the future security of Europe, since, with the foreign policy of three of the EU’s major neighbours or partners being dictated by populist considerations, Europe has to be able to cope with new crises and to do so alone, outside the US umbrella. That will no doubt be one of the major challenges for the European Union in the medium term.
The way the member states of the European Union choose to structure their territories, both politically and administratively, represents an often overlooked but very real difficulty for European integration, complicating the Union’s actions politically, institutionally, etc. To cast light on this, Futuribles has decided to examine the question of territorial organization in Europe by publishing a dossier covering three countries: Germany, Spain and the United Kingdom.
Éric Dufeil sets out the particular case of Germany, where the federal structure laid down in the aftermath of the Second World War has become a central pillar of political organization, further consolidated by reunification. After reminding the readers how this federalism operates, he highlights the generally balanced character of the country, while stressing the developmental inequalities that persist, particularly between East and West. Dufeil also writes of the recent reforms which, among other things, recentralize the management of economic equalization between territories and could lead in the medium term to a revision of the number and geography of the Länder. Lastly, he stresses, on the one hand, the demographic challenges the country faces, which might also lead to some territorial reforms and, on the other, the interesting status of the “metropolitan regions” within the country. However, given how rooted Germany is in it federal structure and the population’s attachment to that structure, adjustments, if they are made, will be carried out within the framework of the Federation.
Quite apart from its economic and commercial consequences, the 2016 decision by the United Kingdom to leave the European Union (EU) has also shown up the role the EU has played in keeping a lid on certain territorial disputes and demands for independence. Without second-guessing the details of Brexit implementation that will emerge from the current negotiations between the two parties, Futuribles has decided to examine these questions of territorial organization by way of a dossier covering not only the United Kingdom (where Brexit could change the rules of the game), but also two largely decentralized states, Spain and Germany.
In this dossier, Jean-François Drevet examines the specific situation of the UK. After recalling how the country has recently decentralized power (devolution) to Northern Ireland, Scotland and Wales, he highlights the particular case of England, which is struggling to find its place in this decentralized arrangement, and the dilemmas this produces where some decision-making is concerned. Most importantly, he recalls why this regional organization was adopted — mainly to respond to the economic crisis that was hitting some regions more severely than others — and the limits (particularly budgetary) it is running up against. Regional development remains very unequal in the country and socio-economic disparities between the London region and areas of high unemployment persist. These regional disparities also had a hand in the Brexit vote (with the EU playing its now classic role as scapegoat). Unfortunately, the implementation of Brexit will probably not have the positive consequences the citizens are hoping for, because of the loss of some European funding and a possible strengthening of dependence on the Treasury, if not indeed a potential revival of aspirations to independence in Northern Ireland or Scotland.
Du haut de leurs pyramides disciplinaires, les scientifiques contemplent 50 millions d’années d’Histoire, et s’arment d’algorithmes et de courbes pour prédire l’avenir de la planète et de notre espèce, exercice périlleux en temps de grands bouleversements, où la simple extrapolation n’est plus de mise. Or nous sommes à l’aube d’une vaste rupture. Paléoanthropologue, Pascal Picq s’intéresse particulièrement à l’évolution des primates, dont les quelque 200 familles incluent l’Homo sapiens ...
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Le moteur du développement sera plus que jamais l’innovation, donc la créativité. Ce développement ne sera durable que s’il respecte l’environnement tout en permettant aux créatifs d’exploiter leurs talents ; et si les citoyens ont accès aux créations. Celles-ci n’ont d’impact que si « l’objet créé [apparaît] à quelqu’un d’autre que son créateur, dans un espace spécifique ». Ce quelqu’un d’autre, c’est le public ; cet espace, c’est l’espace public ...
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Il arrive que les éditeurs imposent aux auteurs des titres très accrocheurs qui ne reflètent ni leur pensée ni même le contenu de leur ouvrage. Ce pourrait être le cas de celui-ci, la lecture de la table des matières n’étant pas exempte de raccourcis, comme par exemple « La grande illusion du marché unique » ou « Le poison du dogmatisme ». Heureusement, le point d’interrogation qui figure à la fin du titre indique que tout n’est peut-être pas consommé pour ...
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Selon une récente étude publiée dans la revue Psychological Science, les nudges peuvent se révéler 100 voire 1 000 fois moins coûteux que les autres outils des politiques publiques, pour un résultat équivalent voire supérieur . Cette conclusion s’appuie sur l’analyse de nudges mis en place par des pouvoirs publics du monde entier depuis 15 ans pour inciter les individus à épargner, à réduire leur consommation d’énergie, à se faire vacciner ou à suivre un cursus éducatif ...
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For some years now, public action has had to adapt to a number of changes in the habits and demands of service-users. Drawing on new methods and social innovations, this move toward modernization seems to be quite well advanced in France. By contrast, as Marjorie Jouen stresses here, when it comes to transforming public action because certain practices or services have ceased to meet the general interest or have become detrimental to the community, the state seems to have more difficulty adapting. However, the analysis of social change and its drivers offers new opportunities for public actors to modernize their activity. After running through the various different motivations and levers of social change, Marjorie Jouen shows how these tools could be transposed to subserve the modernization of public action, so as to improve its efficiency and develop instruments that would enable it concretely to meet its desired objectives.
The recent French presidential elections have confirmed a lack of understanding and disapproval on the part of many citizens of policies that go back several decades, and also of the leaders who carried out those policies. They have also reminded us of how these same citizens distrust — or even reject — the European Union, which is often quick to figure as a scapegoat for national problems. Yet, as this article by Gabriel Arnoux shows, this rejection of Europe is based on a misunderstanding — very often maintained by national governments — of the EU’s actual areas of competency.
There is, in fact, a real difference between the perception many European citizens have of the role of the Union in shaping and determining national policies and the reality of that role. The exclusive areas of competency of the European Union are actually rather limited (relating mainly to compliance with competition rules, currency, and customs and trade policy). In most areas, the EU intervenes only to support member states or in collaboration with them. This clarification of the EU’s real areas of competency is vital, since the Commission has just begun a process of reflection on the future of Europe, based on five scenarios aimed at determining how the Union might develop and what its proper areas of competency should be. It is also essential because the vagueness around the actual responsibilities and legal competencies of European and national institutions is an indicator of a more general malaise regarding the way public policies are presented and evaluated, which also plays a considerable role in the citizenry’s general disaffection with politics.
Voici un livre qui devrait passionner tous les sympathisants de Futuribles et plus largement tous ceux qui réfléchissent sérieusement aux futurs de notre société. C’est une reprise très intelligente et très accessible d’un travail universitaire, montrant que la science politique n’a pas assez pris en compte les changements sociaux et politiques liés au renouvellement générationnel. « La thèse principale de cet ouvrage est que les cohortes transforment la politique en France » (p. 3). On a trop souvent insisté ...
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With each new French national election, the question of Social Security reform rears its head. Admittedly, the Social Security account has been in deficit for many years and finding a way to balance its funding is a headache for those responsible for its management. However, though the deficits in the general account have been falling continuously since 2010, Jacques Bichot does not see that as providing evidence of a return to financial health, since the funding and management systems of the French Social Security system have become warped over the years.
After demonstrating the “absurd” state into which France’s Social Security system’s accounts have fallen, Jacques Bichot suggest that its operation should be revised by restoring to it the status of social insurance in the strict sense, a status it has lost over time due to the Welfare State’s interference in its management. He proposes seven basic principles: the insurance-style, financial nature of Social Security should be guaranteed; it should be returned to independent management and responsibility should lie with those who run it; the schemes for different categories should be superseded by a system of universal cover; the rules on pension rights should be brought into phase with reality; it should be allowed scope to use revenues from capital to finance investment in youth (though not in pensions); Social Security should be governed by a transactional logic once again; it should be made explicit that the contributors to, and beneficiaries of, the scheme are individuals, not companies. On the basis of these principles and the restoration of the scheme’s managers — whom the state would no longer seek to override — Social Security could, as Bichot sees it, recover the foundations of fair and financially balanced operation.
Since 2017 is a year of important elections in various Western countries, Futuribles has decided to look into the lack of vision in political life, so regularly condemned by commentators, by publishing a series of articles on the subject. Is there a real deficit here? If so, what are the reasons for it, and how might it be remedied? After two initial articles published in the March-April 2017 issue, we pursue the theme with this analysis by Yannick Blanc, which shows the extent to which the institutional system, as it has developed in France, is outdated and ill-adapted to the way society operates. What the author terms the “tutelary matrix”, in which politics was made — and institutions made to operate — from the top down (by prescribing rules in phase with society’s values to regulate its usages), is at odds today with citizens’ growing propensity to organize themselves into action groups along very different lines, in which user requirements are to the fore. Should the state fall in with this “bottom-up” logic to orchestrate its strategic vision and the means of implementing it? However one views that question, it is the establishment of a new grammar of the general interest around this rules/values/forms-of-use triptych that Yannick Blanc is calling for here.
Le financement de la protection sociale est le sujet majeur des finances publiques. En effet, les dépenses de protection sociale représentent environ un tiers du produit intérieur brut (PIB) et les deux tiers des dépenses publiques. C’est dire si le sujet, mêlant sensibilité politique et complexité technique, est d’importance. Les pouvoirs publics ont d’ailleurs créé, en 2012, un Haut Conseil du financement de la protection sociale (HCFi-PS). Celui-ci est chargé d’établir un état des lieux du ...
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As a pendant to the current European column on the possible geopolitical consequences of Brexit, Futuribles is also publishing this analysis of Brexit seen, as it were, from the inside, asking how the UK government and political parties see exit from the EU and how the outcome of the negotiations is regarded – or might be regarded – by British citizens? Derek Martin reminds us, first of all, of the Brexit referendum’s failings in terms of democratic representativeness and the doubts to which that gives rise regarding the real will of the British people to leave the Union. After presenting the two possible routes argued for by the Brexiteers (“hard” v. “soft” Brexit), and their prospects of success in the negotiations with the EU, Martin shows what disillusionments might arise for the “soft” Brexiteers within the various British political formations. A situation which, as he sees it, might make it possible to reshuffle the deck and open the door to a reversal of the Brexit decision in one of a range of possible ways that he outlines.
With the presidential elections just a few weeks away, Futuribles has decided to look into the lack of vision for which commentators regularly criticize French political life, by publishing a series of articles on the subject. Is the absence of vision real, what are the reasons behind it, and how might it be remedied?
In addition to the article by Jean Haëntjens on the lessons to be taken from some innovative local political initiatives, Futuribles gives the floor to a politician, the former minister, ex-chair of the Economic, Social and Environmental Council and former Ombudsman Jean-Paul Delevoye. He gives us his analysis of the current crisis of democracy, particularly in France, and formulates some proposals to overcome it. Jean-Paul Delevoye reminds us of what underlies the divorce between political leaders and the citizenry, and the lack of inspirational ideas about the future. He calls on us to be “greedy” about the future, so as to inspire people to be forward-looking. And, if new political visions are to bring people together, he believes that six conditions, which he specifies here, will have to be met: clear-sightedness, ethical soundness, clarity, empowerment, sharing and embodiment. Will these ideas find an echo among the presidential candidates this spring?
L’élection de Donald Trump à la présidence des États-Unis et les premières mesures qu’il a annoncées depuis son entrée en fonction suscitent une légitime inquiétude et bien des questions. Comment expliquer que la plus grande démocratie du monde (certes à l’exception de l’Inde) tombe de la sorte entre les mains d’un tel démagogue ? Que la première puissance, longtemps gardienne de l’ordre mondial malgré les nombreux revers de sa politique étrangère, devienne ainsi un tel ...
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The theme of lack of vision has become a recurrent one in commentaries on French political life. This is why, a few weeks from the presidential elections (which one might wish to see as an opportunity to offer real medium/long-term future visions to French citizens), Futuribles has decided to delve into this question with a series of articles on the lack of political vision, the reasons behind it, and possible remedies. Jean Haëntjens gives us his analysis, drawing on the lessons to be learned from local policy.
After stressing the many civilizational challenges facing societies, particularly European and Western societies, challenges their leaders need to rise to, he shows how, at the local level, city and district authorities have held out against the dominant paradigm of development at all costs and have proposed new civilizational models. Acting concretely in unison with actors from all walks of life to co-produce policies, these authorities have developed initiatives in the cultural and ecological fields and in the area of mobility etc. that offer their residents new visions of the future, based on different values. These new political models, which one finds in many European countries, represent an initial base level the European Union might build on, drawing inspiration from them in its search for a civilizational model attuned to the imperative tasks currently facing us (global warming, transition, human rights and freedoms etc.), if indeed the political leaders of its member states are capable of getting a collective handle on these tasks…
On 23 June 2016, 51.9 % of votes cast in the British referendum were for Brexit or, in other words, for the UK’s departure from the European Union. Since then, new Prime Minister Theresa May has been making preparations to negotiate the terms of that exit which, apart from its economic consequences, will also have a significant geopolitical impact for the country.
It is these geopolitical consequences Jean-François Drevet considers in his column, arguing that if the British believe they are taking back control of their international affairs, they might well be disappointed. So far as the Commonwealth is concerned, the UK is no longer the major partner it was in the 1970s, the USA and China having both overtaken it in terms of trade. And some Commonwealth members even fear the consequences of Brexit for their own economies. When it comes to the United States under a Trump administration, it isn’t at all clear that it sees its political or economic interests as lying in a UK withdrawal from the EU. As for the prospect, hinted at by the UK government, of turning the country into a European offshore tax haven, that idea has not as yet been sufficient to reassure British financial circles. And lastly, internal discord generated by the Brexit decision (in Scotland and Northern Ireland) isn’t likely to make the government’s task any easier. As Jean-François Drevet rightly concludes, Europe is scarcely any easier to dismantle than it has been to build!
Mardi 20 décembre 2016, s’ouvrait la concertation des partenaires sociaux sur le télétravail, prévue par la loi relative au travail, à la modernisation du dialogue social et à la sécurisation des parcours . Par l’organisation de cette concertation, le législateur invite les partenaires sociaux à discuter des pratiques du télétravail, 10 ans après la signature de l’Accord national interprofessionnel (ANI) sur le télétravail, à une époque où l’économie collaborative, les « lieux tiers » ou les technologies liées ...
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Après la bataille de Mossoul, le groupe État islamique (EI) va tenter de se refaire en Asie où vivent près d’un milliard de musulmans. Une stratégie fondée non seulement sur l’action violente mais sur l’utilisation missionnaire des combattants du Moyen-Orient et des travailleurs du Golfe de retour dans leurs pays d’origine, et le recrutement de jeunes musulmans discriminés, notamment en Inde. Le chemin sera tortueux, car sans même compter les armées occidentales, l’EI devra affronter ...
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Futuribles avait conduit un petit exercice collectif d’imagination au moment des élections présidentielles de 2012 . Il s’agissait alors d’envisager les élections présidentielles de 2017. Sept membres du comité de rédaction de la revue avaient bien voulu se prêter au jeu. Celui-ci ne prétend pas à la rigueur des modèles de prévision ni à la technique des scénarios prisée en prospective. Il s’agissait seulement d’évoquer et d’échafauder des possibilités, en fonction de clefs de ...
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Last December we celebrated the five-hundredth anniversary of the publication of Thomas More’s Utopia, which revived a literary tradition begun by Plato — the detailed description of a society that its creator views as ideal. Nicole Morgan, a leading Thomas More specialist, takes a fresh look at this now classic work and its author, a great scholar and statesman, who in it outlines his vision of the optimal form of government as he and his humanist friends of the time saw it. A vision which, in the context of the 16th century, he could serve up only in the form of this humorous narrative that gave us the term “utopia”.
Voici un nouvel ouvrage de Philippe Herzog, cette fois concentré sur les questions d’identité, à partir d’une vaste fresque historique. Au carrefour de plusieurs groupes de pensée et résolument indépendant dans ses opinions, l’auteur nous offre beaucoup de réflexions personnelles, ce qui rend la critique difficile : on ne peut pas facilement en faire une synthèse mais seulement donner quelques exemples pour encourager sa lecture. À ses yeux, l’existence d’une identité européenne ne fait pas de ...
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Nos démocraties sont entrées en zone de turbulence. Ce système politique qui s’est imposé pendant plus de 200 ans comme la seule forme valable de gouvernement, est frappé par une crise sans précédent dans les pays mêmes qui lui ont donné naissance : crise d’efficacité, de représentativité, de légitimité même face à la montée de l’abstention. Les partis politiques traditionnels, mécanismes essentiels de la démocratie, tournent aujourd’hui à vide, la défiance est généralisée. « Ils [les élus] ne ...
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Cette table ronde sera introduite par Jean-Paul Delevoye, ancien ministre, ancien médiateur de la République et ancien président du Conseil économique, social et environnemental (CESE). Un débat sera ouvert avec tous les participants. La séance se terminera par un verre amical. Les membres de Futuribles International ayant acquitté leur cotisation ainsi que les abonnés de la revue Futuribles sont invités aux tables rondes. Des frais de 20 euros sont demandés aux autres participants.
Ce chapitre est extrait du Rapport Vigie 2016 de Futuribles International, qui propose un panorama structuré des connaissances et des incertitudes des experts que l'association a mobilisés pour explorer les évolutions des 15 à 35 prochaines années sur 11 thématiques.