Géopolitique

Cette page regroupe l'ensemble des publications de Futuribles sur cette thématique (Vigie, revue, bibliographie, études, etc.)

Revue

Économie, emploi - Géopolitique - Société, modes de vie

Universalisme moral et tri économique

Who Are We? Universal Ethics and Economic Triage
UNESCO took the happy step a few years ago of organizing philosophic forums around questions which are elementary on the surface, but which always give rise to passionate debates between philosophers and historians, and, more generally, between exact scientists and humanists. One such question is "who are we?"
The second of these philosophic forums was hosted by UNESCO in Paris from the 27th to the 30th of March in 1996. The question at issue was the status of moral universalism at the end of the 20th century. We inherited this great idea from the era of enlightenment, but it is now threatened by economic globalization, disintegration of the public domain, the loss of collective referents and fiercely competitive individualism. The combination puts at risk the universal human values on which our societies are founded.
Richard Rorty, a distinguished professor of philosophy at the University of Virginia, was charged with launching the debate. He did so in a particularly provocative manner by showing how the globalized economy amounts to a triage, selecting the privileged who enjoy universal rights from the poor who, by the logic of the economic mechanism, are relegated to the margins of a system which proclaims universal values while becoming more and more unequal. His text, which should obviously be read in its North American context, is published in this issue.

Revue

Entreprises, travail - Géopolitique - Recherche, sciences, techniques

Le poids de l’Europe dans le système français de recherche

Le projet de Ve Programme-cadre de recherche et de développement de l'Union européenne pour la période 1998-2002, adopté en avril par la Commission européenne (voir futuribles n° 220, mai 1997), sera soumis à l'approbation du Conseil et du Parlement européen au premier semestre 1998. Se posera alors la question du budget affecté à ce programme et de son utilité. Regina Gusmão, tout en soulignant les difficultés d'une telle évaluation, montre que si la part des financements communautaires ...

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Revue

Géopolitique

Géopolitique : l’idéalisme américain

Geopolitics: American Idealism
Pierre Béhar provides us with a critical futurist analysis of the treatise by Henry Kissinger, Diplomacy, which going beyond historical narrative reveals the very specific origins of United States foreign policy and illuminates geopolitical issues at the dawn of the twenty first century.
According to Kissinger, the diplomatic traditions of Europe and the United States are based on very different philosophies: Europe reasons following Richelieu in terms of "Raison d'État" and geopolitical power relationships: the United States applies to interstate relations the moral principles which should govern relations between individuals. Since Woodrow Wilson, American diplomacy has been based on "the certainty of a properly messianic mission", the inner conviction that it embodies an ideal moral order and must impose it on the whole world.
Kissinger explains this concept particularly by the geostrategic position of the United States. He also criticizes it without complacency by denouncing the imperialism of the American dream, its consequences, domestically and internationally. He shows the perverse effect of a policy blind to realities, sufficiently powerful to destabilize the world but insufficiently powerful to impose a universal moral order on it. Finally, starting from an analysis of the specific positions of the United States with respect to other countries and regions, Kissinger sketches a panorama of worldwide geopolitical evolution and shows how American diplomacy will have to renounce its universalist dreams and learn to live in a multipolar world.

Revue

Économie, emploi - Géopolitique

L’Europe à l’heure britannique

Europe along the British Path? The Euro and defence in the "Scenarios 2012"
The present debate about Europe is excessively - if not exclusively - centered on the Euro and the convergence criteria of Maastricht. But, emphasize Albert Bressand and Emmanuelle Maincent, the major issues lie elsewhere; they are related more to Europe's capacity to adopt an economic policy and a common foreign and defence policy. And seen in this light, the United Kingdom could well play a driving role in part because it is economically more advanced than the continental countries and on the other hand because of the Franco-British defence axis.
The authors present five scenarios for Europe in 2012 which are constructed on the basis of two main axes: on one hand the degree of economic integration, on the other the degree of "Europeanization" of defence policy which are both viewed from the point of view of "European governance".
On the basis of five contrasting hypothesis on economic integration and three hypothesis on foreign and defence policy, they present:
- two extremes scenarios that of Non Europe and that of the United States of Europe ;
- three hybrid scenarios: a scenario which contrary to all expectations would see instituted the common and foreign defence policy, not the Euro. The other the Euro without the common foreign defence policy and the third would be distinguished by differentiated Europes.
According to the authors, the United Kingdom could play a major role in this logic of political and economic governance. Economically it opposes to Franco German concepts a pragmatism which has proven its relevance especially by relying on the logic of the market. Politically because the British, in addition to the fact that they represent advanced democracy, have a long term vision of Europe which the continental countries scarcely do.
A real message of welcome to Tony Blair, this article provides useful material to leave behind the purely technical debate over the adoption of the Euro.

Forum

Entreprises, travail - Géopolitique - Recherche, sciences, techniques

La politique européenne de R&D

European R&D Policy towards the Fifth Framework Program of Research and Development of the European Union
On April 9, 1997 the European Commission on the proposal of Edith Cresson adopted its draft Fifth European Research Framework. Program which according to the Commission is to represent a real break in relation to the four preceding programs. A break in the approach will occur, which from now on consists of concentrating the research effort on only six themes which are both close to citizens' aspirations and the requirement of business competitiveness: renewable resources and ecosystem, user friendly information society, competitive and sustainable growth, international cooperation, innovation and participation by SMEs, and human potential. A break also in operations, which will be distinguished by a concern for coordination among the various activities and more management flexibility, is impending. Knowing moreover that the largest part of the Fifth Framework Program, which covers the period 1998-2002, will be carried out in the context of new budget guidelines required from 1999 to succeed the present budget framework, the Commission has not formally proposed a financial envelop at this stage. It considers nonetheless that the relative weight of the Fifth Framework Program in terms of the percentage of GNP of European Union should reach at least the same level reached by the Fourth Framework Program on average between 1995 and 1998 and that the research effort should tend towards that undertaken by the major competitors of the Union.
We publish here:
- a brief description of the direction of this program as adopted by the Commission, a program, we emphasize, which has yet to be approved by the Council and European Parliament in the first quarter of 1998 and whose budget has not been set;
- the comments of Pierre Bonnaure, former Director of Research and Programs at the European Commission;
- the point of view expressed by Francis Mer, Chairman of Usinor Sacilor, President of the National Association (France) for Technical Research at a Colloquium organised by this Association about the Fifth Framework Program at Paris on April 21 and 22, 1997.

Forum

Géopolitique

L’Union européenne : quelles perspectives ?

Alors que la Conférence intergouvernementale (CIG) doit s'achever en juin 1997 et semble néanmoins piétiner, quelles sont les perspectives à moyen et à long terme de l'Union européenne ? L'association Futuribles International a invité Jérôme Vignon, directeur de la Cellule de prospective de la Commission européenne (CdP) à venir nous l'expliquer au cours d'une table ronde qui s'est tenue à Paris le 27 février 1997. Le texte que nous publions ici rend compte brièvement de ...

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Bibliography

Géopolitique - Institutions

« L’Union européenne a-t-elle le soutien de ses citoyens ? »

Ce numéro est la dernière publication en date du Philip Morris Institute for Public Policy Research (PMI), créé en 1993, qui par la publication de documents de réflexion et l'organisation de conférences et séminaires portant sur les principaux enjeux politiques de l'Europe, vise à créer un forum international de discussion entre décideurs politiques, hauts fonctionnaires et experts de l'Union européenne. Les premières pages sont consacrées aux réactions de divers ministres, députés et experts aux précédentes publications (« Le ...

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Revue

Géopolitique

France : les industries de défense au pied du mur

France: the Defense Industry on the Defensive
The end of the Cold War marked the beginning of an intense restructuring of security and defense policies in the West. Especially in a country like France which simultaneously is rejoining NATO little by little all the while pushing for the creation of the continental defense pillar based on the Franco-German alliance.
To the new doctrine which is being outlined, there should correspond a reform of the armed forces which is well advanced, but also a restructuring of the arms industry which will necessarily occur by alliances or even mergers at the European level. But on this scene there reigns the greatest disorder as the Europeans have not given up their national ambitions nor clearly chosen their allies and have as a result not defined a coherent industrial strategy.
European defense industries find themselves in a situation of weakness behind by at least one war by comparison with the industries of the United States which are already getting ready for the war of the future with a high dose of new technology.

Forum

Économie, emploi - Entreprises, travail - Géopolitique - Recherche, sciences, techniques

« L’affaire » Thomson

The Thomson Affair
The plan to privatize the Thomson firm and the handover of Thomson Multimedia to the Korean Daewoo has caused an ink-flow into France during the autumn of 1996. We are publishing two points of view about this case: one by Michel Drancourt who sees in it a striking illustration of French capitalism, the other by André-Yves Portnoff who reacts against the abandonment of a high potential activity out of a purely accounting "Colbertist " point of view.
These two points of view, which are more complementary than opposed, are very instructive about the weaknesses of French society, or rather of its elite, which persists in imposing outdated rules- of-the-game on firms.

Revue

Entreprises, travail - Géopolitique - Recherche, sciences, techniques

Un New Deal pour la recherche et la technologie

A New Deal fo Research and Technology
After having recalled how greatly research and development efforts were concentrated in the triad with nonetheless remarkable spurt in the NICs, Pierre Papon paints a panorama of the new economic, social, political and scientific context in which research is carried out.
The author shows in particular that the economic constraints (beginning with the requirement for short-term profitability) and social constraints (in particular society's demands for "reassurance") are scarcely favourable to the indispensable long term investment which research requires. He particularly denounces the flaws of a state more "firefighter" than strategist whose priorities are more dictated by immediate problems and the need to respond to societal demand than by clearly defined long term objectives.
Pierre Papon considers that there is a "research crisis" resulting from misunderstandings among the scientific community, public authorities and society. In particular the latter two expect from research immediate solutions to current problems when the research effort can only be productive in the long term. In the end, he argues for a true research policy based on forward thinking and attacks the dangers of an excessively utilitarian and short-sighted approach by the state and society.

Forum

Géopolitique

Considérations sur le rôle du Japon

Observations on Japan's Role
This special Futuribles issue on Japan no doubt raises more questions than it offers clear answers about Japan's future. The complementary points of view presented here reveal a situation which is at the same time paradoxical if not ambiguous.
Thus J.M. Bouissou underlines the Japanese feeling that they are under siege and at the same time their insistence on being seen as a "peace loving people". But, he adds, we cannot exclude that these beliefs may shatter and allow the paranoid side of Japan's relationship with the rest of the world to come to the surface.
Japanese-American relations are as rich as they are complex: governed by Japanese interests according to N. Sadria, they would in fact be, according to Z. Laidi, much more complex and marked simultaneously by conflict and cooperation. This conflict is illustrated by F. Joyaux who shows the different concepts of Japan's role, seen by Japan as at the heart of Asia Pacific and seen by the US as simply a border state. The cooperative aspect is illustrated by Guy Faure who shows how much Japan remains dependent on the US for high technology.
And as if to summarize the discussion, K. Yatabe emphasizes the extraordinary flexibility of the Japanese model and at the same time the great unforeseeability of this country's long term evolution.

Revue

Géopolitique

Le Japon puissance internationale « utile »

Japan: a "Useful" International Power
It has become obvious to Modjtaba Sadria that Japan will become a great power, not only by acquiring the classic means but also by adding a new characteristic to power: utility.
The "usefulness" of Japan will come from its unavoidability but also mainly because it will have a "unique ability to respond to various needs of its Asiatic partners", including its Chinese ones, with whom it will have to develop partnering relationships.

Bibliography

Géopolitique - Territoires, réseaux

Le Devenir de l’Europe

Cet ouvrage livre au lecteur le plus grand nombre possible d'outils de compréhension de la construction européenne en élargissant le champ d'étude habituellement associé à la question européenne. En effet, les auteurs considèrent que, depuis la chute du mur de Berlin en 1989, la construction de l'Europe ne peut plus être pensée sur le même registre. Façonnée durant la période de Guerre froide et portée par les années de croissance, il lui faut aujourd'hui intégrer ces ...

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Bibliography

Économie, emploi - Géopolitique

La Nouvelle Asie centrale ou la fabrication des nations

Au lendemain du coup d'État conservateur qui éclate à Moscou, le 19 août 1991, contre Mikhaïl Gorbatchev et sa réforme de l'Union, la plupart des dirigeants des républiques soviétiques musulmanes approuvent les putschistes avant de proclamer, quelques jours plus tard, l'indépendance de leur pays, promulguée dans les trois mois. Les dirigeants qui, en 1991, provenaient tous de la nomenklatura soviétique, tiennent désormais un discours nationaliste, méfiant envers la Russie et ouvert en direction des Occidentaux. Comment expliquer ...

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Bibliography

Géopolitique - Recherche, sciences, techniques

Vaincre sans tuer : du silex aux armes non létales

Directeur de la prospective d'un grand groupe mondial de l'armement et l'un des pères des lasers de grande puissance, Bernard Lavarini s'interroge sur l'évolution de la stratégie de prévention et de gestion des crises quand des armes non létales (ANL en français, NLW en anglais) viendront s'ajouter à la panoplie des armes classiques, déjà enrichies, depuis quelques décennies, des armes NBC (nucléaires, biologiques, chimiques). Les ANL visent à paralyser l'adversaire, soit en mettant ...

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Bibliography

Géopolitique

Recent Results of EC’s Climate Research

Cet opuscule résume les résultats des recherches coordonnées par la DG XII, constituant la contribution de l'Union européenne aux travaux du programme des Nations unies sur le changement climatique (IPCC). Les résultats confirment un accroissement de 25 % de la concentration du gaz carbonique dans l'atmosphère depuis le début de l'ère industrielle. Le méthane a moins d'effet et sa durée de vie est plus courte (15 ans), ce qui laisse plus de marge de manœuvre pour freiner ...

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Bibliography

Économie, emploi - Géopolitique

La Révolution de 1999. L’Europe avec l’euro

Jean Boissonnat décrit avec clarté le long cheminement du projet européen qui débouche sur le lancement d'une monnaie unique alors que les structures politiques nécessaires pour en rendre le fonctionnement possible sans crises graves ne sont pas prêtes. Cela tient au fait que les pays européens, pourtant conscients de la nécessité de s'unir pour exister en tant que puissance dans le monde de demain, ont refusé, la France et l'Angleterre notamment, les abandons de souveraineté que suppose ...

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Bibliography

Économie, emploi - Géopolitique

Crises et crise

S'il est un ouvrage stimulant et qui vient à son heure, c'est bien celui-là. Cette lecture doit être recommandée à tous ceux qui ne se satisfont pas de l'état des sociétés occidentales de plus en plus incapables de mettre les formidables moyens de la science et de la technique au service du plus grand nombre. Mireille Marc-Lipiansky est la très fidèle disciple de son père, Alexandre Marc, qui poursuit à un âge très avancé, le combat qu ...

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Bibliography

Géopolitique

Le Japon et la nouvelle Asie

Le Japon est aujourd'hui un pays en transition. Non pas, comme cela a été écrit, parce que certains chocs récents (éclatement de la « bulle financière », tremblement de terre de Kobé) auraient plongé l'archipel dans une situation de crise : c'est moins la réalité japonaise elle-même que sa représentation occidentale, c'est-à-dire l'image d'une puissance invulnérable, qui a été modifiée par ces événements. La transformation du Japon est à la fois moins dramatique et plus profonde. Elle ...

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Chapitre Géopolitique

Ce chapitre est extrait du Rapport Vigie 2016 de Futuribles International, qui propose un panorama structuré des connaissances et des incertitudes des experts que l'association a mobilisés pour explorer les évolutions des 15 à 35 prochaines années sur 11 thématiques.