Géopolitique

Cette page regroupe l'ensemble des publications de Futuribles sur cette thématique (Vigie, revue, bibliographie, études, etc.)

Bibliography

Économie, emploi - Géopolitique

Chine, Hong Kong, Taiwan. Une nouvelle géographie économique de l’Asie

Cet ouvrage a été rédigé par deux auteurs, économistes, qui ont séjourné à Hong Kong dans le cadre du poste d'expansion économique. L'étude présentée, qui porte sur les espaces économiques du monde chinois, a par conséquent bénéficié d'une excellente qualité des informations et d'une richesse des données économiques. Les auteurs nous présentent une Asie où la Chine, plus exactement le monde chinois, est sur le point de remplacer le Japon comme leader économique de la zone ...

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Bibliography

Géopolitique

France-Germany in the 21st Century

Tous les auteurs ayant apporté leur contribution à cet ouvrage collectif s'accordent sur un point : depuis la réunification allemande de 1989, le couple franco-allemand est, au mieux, un mariage de convenance, marqué par des mésententes récurrentes. Patrick MacCarthy dresse un portrait historique assez complet des relations entre ces deux pays, complété par une analyse de David Calleo sur la situation actuelle et une étude pointue, par Roger Morgan, de la naissance de l'euro. Globalement, l'impression qui se ...

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Bibliography

Géopolitique

L’Europe, une puissance dans la mondialisation

Confrontée à des défis stratégiques majeurs, l'Europe va traverser des années décisives : généralisation de l'euro en 2002, premiers élargissements de l'Union européenne (UE) en 2003, réforme des institutions européennes et renouvellement du parlement européen en 2004. Face à ces rendez-vous importants, Pierre Moscovici, ministre délégué chargé des Affaires européennes dans le gouvernement Jospin (1997-2002), dresse le bilan de son action et formule des réflexions personnelles sur l'avenir de l'Europe. Du conseil européen d'Amsterdam (juin ...

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Bibliography

Géopolitique - Société, modes de vie

La Situation sociale dans l’Union européenne 2001

Ce deuxième rapport annuel sur la situation sociale en Europe fournit des données précieuses destinées à confirmer le rôle stratégique de la politique sociale au sein de l'UE tel qu'il a été défini par le sommet de Lisbonne puis celui de Nice. Il brosse tout d'abord un tableau global des principales tendances observées dans le domaine social (vieillissement, diminution de la taille des ménages, état de la cohésion sociale, conditions de travail et de vie...) au niveau ...

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Bibliography

Géopolitique

Images économiques du monde 2002

L'édition 2002 du désormais traditionnel Images économiques du monde (46e année) est sortie. La banque de données a été entièrement réactualisée (au 31 août 2001) et permet ainsi au lecteur de disposer des informations et des chiffres les plus récents sur les 120 pays couverts par l'ouvrage. En préambule, André Gamblin livre son point de vue sur les perspectives mondiales en 2002 - analyse effectuée avant les événements du 11 septembre 2001 -, et Bernard Dézert développe les grands axes ...

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Bibliography

Géopolitique - Territoires, réseaux

Korea 2010. The Challenges of the New Millennium

La Corée, de par sa position stratégique au carrefour du Nord-Est de l'Asie, a toujours été d'une importance capitale pour le Japon, la Chine, la Russie, et plus récemment pour les États-Unis. Depuis la division de la péninsule en 1945, la Corée du Sud est devenue une démocratie et a pris une place non négligeable dans l'économie globale. Elle est à présent en transition entre une économie dirigée et une économie libérale, entre l'âge industriel et ...

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Bibliography

Économie, emploi - Géopolitique

Government and Politics in Southeast Asia

Sous la direction de John Funston, cet ouvrage rassemble les contributions de neuf spécialistes de l'Asie du Sud-Est et couvre l'ensemble des 10 pays qui composent l'ASEAN (Association of South-East Asia Nations). Divisé en 10 chapitres, un par pays, il présente pour chacun d'eux une analyse détaillée des pratiques politiques en vigueur. En introduction, une synthèse rappelle les caractéristiques historiques, géographiques, sociales et économiques dans lesquelles s'enracine l'évolution du pays. Elle est accompagnée d ...

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Bibliography

Géopolitique

Sud-Liban : scénarios de crise

Les deux guerres qui se déroulent simultanément, la première lancée par les États-Unis contre le terrorisme au lendemain du 11 septembre 2001, la seconde, israélo-palestinienne, déclenchée un an plus tôt, ont fini par masquer la persistance d'un autre foyer de tension : celui qui couve à la frontière libano-israélienne. Un quart de siècle après l'instauration par l'État hébreu de la zone de sécurité, « libérée » en mai 2000, le Sud-Liban demeure cette frontière gangrenée par laquelle une guerre peut ...

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Bibliography

Géopolitique

Trends in Outside Support for Insurgent Movements

Le soutien à une rébellion est un instrument de politique étrangère commun depuis la guerre froide. Les États-Unis et l'Union soviétique ont souvent en effet transformé des guerres locales en questions internationales. La fin de la guerre froide n'a pas mis un terme à l'instrumentalisation des révoltes, mais la dimension et la nature de l'aide extérieure, ainsi que l'identité des donateurs, ont changé. Sur 74 conflits repérés depuis la fin de la guerre froide, 44 ...

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Bibliography

Géopolitique

Terrorismes, vers un nouveau désordre mondial ?

Qui sont les nouveaux soldats du terrorisme ? Quelle haine est à l'origine des attaques sanglantes du 11 septembre 2001 aux États-Unis ? Doit-on redouter un « choc des civilisations », suivant les prédictions du théoricien américain Samuel P. Huntington ? La négociation est-elle encore possible dans ce nouveau type de conflit ? Doit-on craindre un nouveau choc pétrolier ? Ce petit livre passe en revue toutes ces questions et tente d'apporter des éléments de réponse synthétiques et clairs. Les terroristes qui ont frappé les ...

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Revue

Géopolitique

Une Europe rassemblée ou intégrée

Contrary to the hopes of the founding fathers, the creation of the Common Market did not spontaneously bring about political unity in Europe -this goal indeed is still hotly debated between those who are content simply with the establishment of a free trade area and those who would like to go further and to provide the European Union with political institutions worthy of the name (cf. the article by Yves Bertoncini).
At the same time, the EU, which has grown from 6 to 15 members, is now facing the enormous challenge of further expansion:
-first, another 12 countries (mainly those in central and eastern Europe) whose applications have already been accepted;
-then, a further dozen new prospective candidates for membership, which would bring the EU up to a total of around 40 members.
Jean-François Drevet, stressing the gulf in economic and political terms that separates the current EU countries from the applicants, discusses the issues related to the expansion to 27 members. He shows that the challenge is as great as that of German unification, and that it can be met only by massive expenditure of structural funds.
As for the inclusion in the longer term of the Baltic states and the Balkans, which will be even harder to achieve because the economic and political gaps are much greater, Drevet argues that it is politically indispensable.
He shows, nevertheless, that these successive enlargements, however desirable, are in danger of diluting the European Community unless they are accompanied by a deepening of the union, especially through the creation of a hard core ("Carolingian Europe") capable of acting as the driving force.
It seems inevitable, in any case, that Europe will develop à la carte, with the creation outside an enhanced economic and monetary union of rings of other countries which will achieve integration at different speeds.

Forum

Géopolitique

Europe : vive le déclin !

While not hiding his nostalgia for a federal Europe which might have been capable of establishing itself as a superpower on a par with the United States, Jean-Jacques Salomon argues in this deliberately provocative piece that Europe could become a confederation with a different cultural agenda.
Europe is indeed divided, he says, and incapable of federating, of making itself a superpower and of developing the same ambitions vis-à-vis the world and same strategic postures as the United States. So much the worse for the god of war.
But perhaps instead, since it can't turn into an empire, Europe could create a confederation and make sufficient progress in cultural terms to be the Greece of modern times.

Revue

Géopolitique - Institutions

Les institutions européennes dans l’impasse

Everyone is aware that the institutions of the EU are facing the problem of a lack of effectiveness and legitimacy which threatens to worsen as the number of member states increases (to 20, 25, 30 or even more). Will the latest intergovernmental conference to be held in Nice in December 2000 manage to find a solution to current problems, which are the same as those that its predecessor failed to resolve in 1997 in the Amsterdam Treaty?
Yves Bertoncini argues here that there are two main issues at stake: (i) the composition and work of the European Commission, and (ii) the decision-making process in the Council of Ministers. He thinks that there may be a solution which will offer an escape from the never-ending debate about the way that decisions are reached by resorting to the procedure known as "reinforced co-operations".
The author highlights first the ambiguous situation of the Commission arising from uncertainty about the status of the Commissioners -are they each representatives of their nation or do they together make up a supranational, collegial administrative body?- which then affects how many there are (the need for every member state to be represented) and their weight in the decision-making process. He points out the anomalies relating to the Commission's powers, in particular with regard to legislation, when it is not sufficiently independent of the member states; he therefore proposes ways in which reforms might increase the Commission's effectiveness and legitimacy.
In the next section, Bertoncini looks at the system of voting in the Council of Ministers and argues that it is essential to abandon the principle of unanimity, which is a major source of bottlenecks, and to discuss the current decision-making procedures and their attendant problems, given the weight of each member state and the size of majority required in each case. He shows how complicated the present system is and discusses the various solutions being considered, with the difficulties they raise.
Finally, looking forward to the possibility that the latest negotiations on this matter will fail once again, Yves Bertoncini proposes, more pragmatically, even greater use of the system of "reinforced co-operations", which would have the advantage that "it does not a priori exclude any member state but does take account of the extremely variable positions of different countries in a union with 20 or 30 members, in which it would be utterly futile to try to get them all to keep in step". In doing so, Bertoncini pleads that, as long as no entirely satisfactory overall institutional arrangements can be achieved, at least de facto shifting alliances should be allowed to develop.

Forum

Géopolitique

Au secours, l’Europe

A fervent European laments the shattering of his dreams! What on earth has become of Europe?
In this lively opinion piece, Michel Drancourt inveighs against the decline of Europe -the Europe on which so many hopes were pinned, and which today has lost all its drive; every aspect is paralysed: political, cultural, social, perhaps even economic and monetary.
He criticizes the selfishness of the member states of the European Union and the candidates waiting to join, the absence of a shared project and a common policy, the lack of a European spirit and vision.
Don't be misled: his criticisms are an appeal. Beyond the uncompromising picture that he paints, Drancourt offers a glimpse of hope that Europe might get a grip on itself and at last shoulder its responsibilities, internally and abroad.

Revue

Géopolitique

Le retour de la guerre des étoiles

Ten years after the end of the Cold War, Pierre Bonnaure remarks, Bill Clinton decided to revive the notion of an anti-missile defence system for the United States, because he is anxious to reassure public opinion about the possible threats from "rogue states". Admittedly, as his term comes to an end, the American President has just put off a decision until later, but the question remains open.
Bringing up to date the strategy of nuclear deterrence and reviewing the various treaties that lay down the rules of the game carries the risk of destabilising the parties concerned, whether nor not they signed the treaties, as well as of having unwanted side-effects: abuse of power, strengthening nuclear weapons programmes, revival of the arms race, challenging traditional alliances and the role of NATO, not to mention potential nuclear catastrophe.
To create a new system of protection and deterrence to shelter just the United States, or perhaps its allies as well, means once again putting into question the policies on defence and on nuclear non-proliferation, with the risk of driving Russia to adopt a rigid stance and to undermine the fragile balance of global security.
How can we stop the proliferation and use of weapons of mass destruction? That is the weighty question that Bill Clinton is leaving for his successor to answer.

Revue

Économie, emploi - Géopolitique - Institutions

La transition indienne

Jean-Luc Racine sets out here a masterly account of the current transition in India, a transition that he argues will allow this enormous country, with over a billion inhabitants, to overcome its internal contradictions and become a major player in tomorrow's world.
This important transition is taking place first of all at the domestic, political level through the decline of the Congress Party and the rise of the Bharat People's Party (BJP) which champions the Hindu nationalism in spite of the increase in the number of regionalist parties.
The economic element of the transition has taken the form of a two-stage programme of limited but continuous moves towards liberalisation. This policy has required major structural reforms, but these have been carried out cautiously, with a view to re-establishing the main equilibria, and ensuring high levels of economic growth, which will be judged in the end by its capacity to promote more equitable human development.
In the second half of the article, devoted to India's foreign policy, Jean-Luc Racine first describes the policy adopted to make the country a nuclear power, and then shows how this affects India's handling of its geopolitical relations with its neighbours, especially its tense and ambiguous interactions with Pakistan and China. Lastly, he examines how New Delhi is trying to establish itself as one of the main players on the world scene while at the same time maintaining a completely new style of dialogue with Washington.
The portrait of India sketched by Jean-Luc Racine is of a giant who is gradually waking up, of a country that, stifling its internal tensions and inequalities, is at the stage of rapid take-off and is preparing to play a major role in the world of the future.

Revue

Entreprises, travail - Géopolitique

L’intelligence stratégique : propos d’un analyste. Le métier du renseignement

Colonel Baud, who currently works at the Swiss army's headquarters in Berne, was employed for more than seven years as an analyst by the Swiss intelligence service. He has compiled two encyclopaedias, one on intelligence-gathering and secret services (Paris: Lavauzelle, 1997) and another on terrorism (Encyclopédie du terrorisme. Paris: Lavauzelle, 1999), and he agreed to be interviewed for Futuribles by Jérôme Marchand.
He talks first about intelligence as a profession - which in many ways covers the same field as strategic surveillance - and the special skills required for the job, in particular in terms of intellectual curiosity (and therefore openness of mind), the ability to distance oneself from events (and therefore good judgement), as well as the ability to anticipate what might happen.
Colonel Baud then offers a rapid critical survey of the bodies responsible for intelligence, where their strengths and weaknesses lie, especially in the radically different geopolitical context following the end of the Cold War.
The main topic of the last part of the interview is the new threats that are typical of today's world, which are quite unlike those of the past because the issues of internal and external security, both civilian and military, are increasingly interconnected.

Bibliography

Géopolitique

« Contrôler l’effet de serre : l’enjeu de politique publique internationale »

Ce numéro de la revue Économie internationale fait le point sur les enjeux de la gestion de l'effet de serre en termes de politique publique internationale. La plupart des spécialistes français de la question nous livrent donc l'état de leurs recherches économiques en la matière. Olivier Godard relate ainsi l'expérience américaine des permis négociables, d'abord de 1977 à 1989, montrant les formules expérimentées et les raisons de certains échecs ; ensuite à partir de 1990 et du ...

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Chapitre Géopolitique

Ce chapitre est extrait du Rapport Vigie 2016 de Futuribles International, qui propose un panorama structuré des connaissances et des incertitudes des experts que l'association a mobilisés pour explorer les évolutions des 15 à 35 prochaines années sur 11 thématiques.