Cette page regroupe l'ensemble des publications de Futuribles sur cette thématique (Vigie, revue, bibliographie, études, etc.)
Les deux guerres qui se déroulent simultanément, la première lancée par les États-Unis contre le terrorisme au lendemain du 11 septembre 2001, la seconde, israélo-palestinienne, déclenchée un an plus tôt, ont fini par masquer la persistance d'un autre foyer de tension : celui qui couve à la frontière libano-israélienne. Un quart de siècle après l'instauration par l'État hébreu de la zone de sécurité, « libérée » en mai 2000, le Sud-Liban demeure cette frontière gangrenée par laquelle une guerre peut ...
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Tous les auteurs ayant apporté leur contribution à cet ouvrage collectif s'accordent sur un point : depuis la réunification allemande de 1989, le couple franco-allemand est, au mieux, un mariage de convenance, marqué par des mésententes récurrentes. Patrick MacCarthy dresse un portrait historique assez complet des relations entre ces deux pays, complété par une analyse de David Calleo sur la situation actuelle et une étude pointue, par Roger Morgan, de la naissance de l'euro. Globalement, l'impression qui se ...
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Confrontée à des défis stratégiques majeurs, l'Europe va traverser des années décisives : généralisation de l'euro en 2002, premiers élargissements de l'Union européenne (UE) en 2003, réforme des institutions européennes et renouvellement du parlement européen en 2004. Face à ces rendez-vous importants, Pierre Moscovici, ministre délégué chargé des Affaires européennes dans le gouvernement Jospin (1997-2002), dresse le bilan de son action et formule des réflexions personnelles sur l'avenir de l'Europe. Du conseil européen d'Amsterdam (juin ...
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La Corée, de par sa position stratégique au carrefour du Nord-Est de l'Asie, a toujours été d'une importance capitale pour le Japon, la Chine, la Russie, et plus récemment pour les États-Unis. Depuis la division de la péninsule en 1945, la Corée du Sud est devenue une démocratie et a pris une place non négligeable dans l'économie globale. Elle est à présent en transition entre une économie dirigée et une économie libérale, entre l'âge industriel et ...
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A fervent European laments the shattering of his dreams! What on earth has become of Europe?
In this lively opinion piece, Michel Drancourt inveighs against the decline of Europe -the Europe on which so many hopes were pinned, and which today has lost all its drive; every aspect is paralysed: political, cultural, social, perhaps even economic and monetary.
He criticizes the selfishness of the member states of the European Union and the candidates waiting to join, the absence of a shared project and a common policy, the lack of a European spirit and vision.
Don't be misled: his criticisms are an appeal. Beyond the uncompromising picture that he paints, Drancourt offers a glimpse of hope that Europe might get a grip on itself and at last shoulder its responsibilities, internally and abroad.
Contrary to the hopes of the founding fathers, the creation of the Common Market did not spontaneously bring about political unity in Europe -this goal indeed is still hotly debated between those who are content simply with the establishment of a free trade area and those who would like to go further and to provide the European Union with political institutions worthy of the name (cf. the article by Yves Bertoncini).
At the same time, the EU, which has grown from 6 to 15 members, is now facing the enormous challenge of further expansion:
-first, another 12 countries (mainly those in central and eastern Europe) whose applications have already been accepted;
-then, a further dozen new prospective candidates for membership, which would bring the EU up to a total of around 40 members.
Jean-François Drevet, stressing the gulf in economic and political terms that separates the current EU countries from the applicants, discusses the issues related to the expansion to 27 members. He shows that the challenge is as great as that of German unification, and that it can be met only by massive expenditure of structural funds.
As for the inclusion in the longer term of the Baltic states and the Balkans, which will be even harder to achieve because the economic and political gaps are much greater, Drevet argues that it is politically indispensable.
He shows, nevertheless, that these successive enlargements, however desirable, are in danger of diluting the European Community unless they are accompanied by a deepening of the union, especially through the creation of a hard core ("Carolingian Europe") capable of acting as the driving force.
It seems inevitable, in any case, that Europe will develop à la carte, with the creation outside an enhanced economic and monetary union of rings of other countries which will achieve integration at different speeds.
While not hiding his nostalgia for a federal Europe which might have been capable of establishing itself as a superpower on a par with the United States, Jean-Jacques Salomon argues in this deliberately provocative piece that Europe could become a confederation with a different cultural agenda.
Europe is indeed divided, he says, and incapable of federating, of making itself a superpower and of developing the same ambitions vis-à-vis the world and same strategic postures as the United States. So much the worse for the god of war.
But perhaps instead, since it can't turn into an empire, Europe could create a confederation and make sufficient progress in cultural terms to be the Greece of modern times.
Everyone is aware that the institutions of the EU are facing the problem of a lack of effectiveness and legitimacy which threatens to worsen as the number of member states increases (to 20, 25, 30 or even more). Will the latest intergovernmental conference to be held in Nice in December 2000 manage to find a solution to current problems, which are the same as those that its predecessor failed to resolve in 1997 in the Amsterdam Treaty?
Yves Bertoncini argues here that there are two main issues at stake: (i) the composition and work of the European Commission, and (ii) the decision-making process in the Council of Ministers. He thinks that there may be a solution which will offer an escape from the never-ending debate about the way that decisions are reached by resorting to the procedure known as "reinforced co-operations".
The author highlights first the ambiguous situation of the Commission arising from uncertainty about the status of the Commissioners -are they each representatives of their nation or do they together make up a supranational, collegial administrative body?- which then affects how many there are (the need for every member state to be represented) and their weight in the decision-making process. He points out the anomalies relating to the Commission's powers, in particular with regard to legislation, when it is not sufficiently independent of the member states; he therefore proposes ways in which reforms might increase the Commission's effectiveness and legitimacy.
In the next section, Bertoncini looks at the system of voting in the Council of Ministers and argues that it is essential to abandon the principle of unanimity, which is a major source of bottlenecks, and to discuss the current decision-making procedures and their attendant problems, given the weight of each member state and the size of majority required in each case. He shows how complicated the present system is and discusses the various solutions being considered, with the difficulties they raise.
Finally, looking forward to the possibility that the latest negotiations on this matter will fail once again, Yves Bertoncini proposes, more pragmatically, even greater use of the system of "reinforced co-operations", which would have the advantage that "it does not a priori exclude any member state but does take account of the extremely variable positions of different countries in a union with 20 or 30 members, in which it would be utterly futile to try to get them all to keep in step". In doing so, Bertoncini pleads that, as long as no entirely satisfactory overall institutional arrangements can be achieved, at least de facto shifting alliances should be allowed to develop.
Ten years after the end of the Cold War, Pierre Bonnaure remarks, Bill Clinton decided to revive the notion of an anti-missile defence system for the United States, because he is anxious to reassure public opinion about the possible threats from "rogue states". Admittedly, as his term comes to an end, the American President has just put off a decision until later, but the question remains open.
Bringing up to date the strategy of nuclear deterrence and reviewing the various treaties that lay down the rules of the game carries the risk of destabilising the parties concerned, whether nor not they signed the treaties, as well as of having unwanted side-effects: abuse of power, strengthening nuclear weapons programmes, revival of the arms race, challenging traditional alliances and the role of NATO, not to mention potential nuclear catastrophe.
To create a new system of protection and deterrence to shelter just the United States, or perhaps its allies as well, means once again putting into question the policies on defence and on nuclear non-proliferation, with the risk of driving Russia to adopt a rigid stance and to undermine the fragile balance of global security.
How can we stop the proliferation and use of weapons of mass destruction? That is the weighty question that Bill Clinton is leaving for his successor to answer.
Jean-Luc Racine sets out here a masterly account of the current transition in India, a transition that he argues will allow this enormous country, with over a billion inhabitants, to overcome its internal contradictions and become a major player in tomorrow's world.
This important transition is taking place first of all at the domestic, political level through the decline of the Congress Party and the rise of the Bharat People's Party (BJP) which champions the Hindu nationalism in spite of the increase in the number of regionalist parties.
The economic element of the transition has taken the form of a two-stage programme of limited but continuous moves towards liberalisation. This policy has required major structural reforms, but these have been carried out cautiously, with a view to re-establishing the main equilibria, and ensuring high levels of economic growth, which will be judged in the end by its capacity to promote more equitable human development.
In the second half of the article, devoted to India's foreign policy, Jean-Luc Racine first describes the policy adopted to make the country a nuclear power, and then shows how this affects India's handling of its geopolitical relations with its neighbours, especially its tense and ambiguous interactions with Pakistan and China. Lastly, he examines how New Delhi is trying to establish itself as one of the main players on the world scene while at the same time maintaining a completely new style of dialogue with Washington.
The portrait of India sketched by Jean-Luc Racine is of a giant who is gradually waking up, of a country that, stifling its internal tensions and inequalities, is at the stage of rapid take-off and is preparing to play a major role in the world of the future.
Colonel Baud, who currently works at the Swiss army's headquarters in Berne, was employed for more than seven years as an analyst by the Swiss intelligence service. He has compiled two encyclopaedias, one on intelligence-gathering and secret services (Paris: Lavauzelle, 1997) and another on terrorism (Encyclopédie du terrorisme. Paris: Lavauzelle, 1999), and he agreed to be interviewed for Futuribles by Jérôme Marchand.
He talks first about intelligence as a profession - which in many ways covers the same field as strategic surveillance - and the special skills required for the job, in particular in terms of intellectual curiosity (and therefore openness of mind), the ability to distance oneself from events (and therefore good judgement), as well as the ability to anticipate what might happen.
Colonel Baud then offers a rapid critical survey of the bodies responsible for intelligence, where their strengths and weaknesses lie, especially in the radically different geopolitical context following the end of the Cold War.
The main topic of the last part of the interview is the new threats that are typical of today's world, which are quite unlike those of the past because the issues of internal and external security, both civilian and military, are increasingly interconnected.
Ce numéro de la revue Économie internationale fait le point sur les enjeux de la gestion de l'effet de serre en termes de politique publique internationale. La plupart des spécialistes français de la question nous livrent donc l'état de leurs recherches économiques en la matière. Olivier Godard relate ainsi l'expérience américaine des permis négociables, d'abord de 1977 à 1989, montrant les formules expérimentées et les raisons de certains échecs ; ensuite à partir de 1990 et du ...
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La Datar lance une nouvelle revue qui se veut une tribune d'idées nouvelles et un lieu de réflexion sur le devenir de l'aménagement du territoire en France et en Europe. Territoires 2020 reprend le fil des ambitions qui avaient présidé à la naissance de la revue 2000 à la fin des années 1960 - une relecture rétrospective très intéressante de cette première expérience (qui a duré jusqu'en 1978) est d'ailleurs proposée dans ce numéro. On y trouvera ...
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"The more our society denies the past, the more it is influenced by it" argues Pierre Béhar in the preface to his most recent book, Vestiges d'empires (Remnants of empire, Paris: Desjonquères, 1999). Bernard Cazes therefore went to interview him about the process of collapse in Central Europe and the Balkans and, beyond that, about social trends over the very long term and impact of human decision-making, depending on whether these trends are taken into account or ignored.
The article is more about the past than the future. Pierre Béhar shares with us his thoughts on the construction and collapse of empires and states, in particular those created artificially, without regard to the past (as he stresses), at the end of the First World War - now history has reasserted itself. Basing his arguments on the history of the people of Europe across many centuries, he explains why certain frontiers remain stable, others are redrawn peaceably, while yet other states continue to tear each other apart in bloody conflicts.
Throughout the interview he emphasizes how important it is to recognize ethnic and national identities and how dangerous it is to construct artificial groupings, yet he also argues in favour of creating coherent political and strategic entities and picks out three that are vital in Europe. As might be expected, he is therefore extremely critical of the process of European unification - and even more so of the adoption of a common defence policy - which he feels is a case of "putting the cart before the horse", since agreements are sought about means before agreement has been reached about ends. Nevertheless, he recognizes the importance of having a common foreign policy vis-à-vis, in the first place, our Balkan neighbours.
A key question emerges from among the lessons of the historian for the futures studies specialist: what are the relative weights of historical determinism and of human freedom?
La première livraison de l'année 2000 de la revue Transfer est entièrement consacrée au syndicalisme et à ses mutations dans le contexte actuel de mondialisation. Dans son article d'introduction, Otto Jacobi entend démontrer que la coopération syndicale internationale ne peut réussir qu'à condition que soient éliminées les tendances au protectionnisme et au dumping. Au niveau européen, remarque-t-il, la coopération syndicale doit faire face à de nombreux changements induits par la révolution économique en cours. Rebecca Gumbrell-McCormik parcourt ...
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The disintegration of the Balkans is occurring just at the time when Western Europe, by contrast, is trying to form a union. This is reviving an old debate on the European continent for which, split as we are between respect for borders and recognition of nations, no satisfactory solution has yet been found. Certainly no answer is forthcoming for the Balkans, where the artificially created federal states did not survive the wish of the inhabitants to determine their own destiny, even if the price was bloody conflicts.
What solution can be proposed now to the problem of Kosovo, in order that its example should not spread, nor lead to the formation of many small, independent states, nor - conversely - equally artificial regional groupings, which will soon fall prey to the same tensions?
Elvire Letourneur-Fabry, went to interview Pierre Hassner about the possible ways of resolving the conflict and, more generally, about the rules of arbitration that might be adopted to deal with the problem of minorities. The celebrated professor of political science warns us against overly dogmatic notions that would encourage a systematic preference for national or supranational solutions.
As he analyses the situation in the Balkans, Pierre Hassner argues for a policy that would, if nothing else, prevent the conflicts from proliferating. More generally, he stresses the fragility of the compromises in Europe, and the difficulty that the European Union will have if it is to create for itself a genuine foreign policy and a common defence policy capable of imposing peace on its immediate neighbours.
Ce double numéro de la revue italienne Futuribili, publiée par l'Institut de sociologie de Gorizia, étudie les mutations que vit, depuis la chute du mur de Berlin, la scène des relations internationales, à travers les nouvelles fonctions et légitimités échues aux organisations internationales, qu'elles soient régionales (Union européenne ou Organisation du traité de l'Atlantique Nord) ou mondiales (Organisation des Nations unies). Suite à la disparition de l'une des deux superpuissances, les organisations internationales ont été amenées ...
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Réalisé par l'Iris (Institut de relations internationales et stratégiques), en collaboration avec France Info, cet ouvrage constitue à la fois un annuaire statistique et un instrument de compréhension des relations internationales et des questions stratégiques et de défense contemporaines. Il propose d'abord un découpage par régions qui permet au lecteur de trouver, dans une même partie, d'une part une analyse géopolitique des questions concernant la zone étudiée et les facteurs de puissance en jeu, d'autre part ...
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L'ouvrage écrit par Philippe Delalande au terme d'un séjour prolongé au Viêt-Nam est attractif à double titre : il dresse un état des lieux et pose des questions qui intéressent directement les décideurs qui ont à traiter avec ce pays, porteur de clichés tenaces en France mais aussi de promesses. C'est dire l'ambition affichée de l'auteur et le niveau d'attente du lecteur. Au bilan positif de l'entreprise, il faut citer la facilité de lecture ...
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En prélude aux premiers jours de la présidence française de l'Union européenne, Hubert Védrine, ministre français des Affaires étrangères, a accordé une série d'entretiens à Dominique Moïsi, directeur adjoint de l'Institut français des relations internationales. Y sont abordées les principales préoccupations du chef de la diplomatie française. L'émergence du « monde global » depuis la dissolution de l'URSS s'est accompagnée d'une modification profonde de la scène internationale. Celle-ci est désormais marquée par la prépondérance des ...
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Ce chapitre est extrait du Rapport Vigie 2016 de Futuribles International, qui propose un panorama structuré des connaissances et des incertitudes des experts que l'association a mobilisés pour explorer les évolutions des 15 à 35 prochaines années sur 11 thématiques.