Géopolitique

Cette page regroupe l'ensemble des publications de Futuribles sur cette thématique (Vigie, revue, bibliographie, études, etc.)

Revue

Géopolitique - Recherche, sciences, techniques

Où va l’espace ?

The arrival of a new world order requires a rethinking of policy towards space, with regard to both its aims and the means allocated to pursuing them.
In fact, Pierre Bonnaure argues, an entirely new strategy needs to be devised, no longer based on the requirements of a bipolar world, but instead on globalization, with all its inherent connotations for new types of co-operation, new alliances and cut-throat commercial competition. This new strategy needs to take account of budgetary and commercial realities: as private industry takes over the responsibilities of the state - unable to afford the vast sums spent in the past on the space race, which has now lost its military significance - the criterion for launching new projects in the future will be their profitability. Consequently, the least-profitable ambitions, such as exploring distant parts of the galaxy, will be abandoned in favour of more lucrative propositions, mainly linked to developing communications satellites. This means that the emphasis is now much less on research and development, or on prestige programmes that have no commercial potential, and much more on cost-cutting.
To hold its own in the market without giving up the technological innovation that is essential to remaining competitive - that, in Pierre Bonnaure's view, is the challenge now facing Arianespace if Europe, doubly handicapped by the lack of a common defence policy and a space budget ten-times smaller than that of the United States, is to play a full part in the conquest of space.

Revue

Géopolitique

L’Unesco à l’aube du XXIe siècle. Les organisations intergouvernementales dans le contexte des années 2000

More than fifty years after its creation, Unesco - like all the organizations within the UN system - finds itself in a very different world from the one in which it was founded. Although many problems are still with us, the technical, economic, social and political changes that have occurred since 1946 carry with them serious consequences for the future of mankind, and are, therefore, likely to have a major impact on the role and activities of Unesco in the decades to come.
Highly conscious of the issues at stake, the 30th General Assembly had both to elect a new Director-General and to debate the role of Unesco in the 21st century. As a contribution to the discussion, a study group made up of former Unesco officials, the Miollis Group, examined the future of the organization.
This article is the product of the group's work. Michel Batisse starts by reviewing the main current global trends before sketching three scenarios for the planet's future : two of them are based on a free market approach (one optimistic, one pessimistic), while the third - based on "sustainable, shared human development" - is presented as a desirable outcome.
He then examines the role that Unesco might play in achieving this goal, and what this would imply for the organization's continuing missions, programme priorities and guiding principles.

Revue

Géopolitique

Construction européenne, acte III

A convinced European, Venceslas Humeur first presents a critical review of European unification, the creation of institutions and the formulation (not without problems and delays) of Community policies. Without hiding the difficulties of the task, he evaluates its successes (mainly in the economic and monetary fields) and failures (conspicuous above all in foreign policy, security and defence), its weaknesses and its strengths.
After Acts I (the creation of the European Coal and Steel Community) and II (mainly the implementation of the single market and the adoption of the Euro), Venceslas Humeur marks the arrival in office of the new Commission by attempting to describe the key issues related to deepening and enlarging the Union.
He also highlights the main challenges facing the new Commission under its President, Romano Prodi. These are arranged in four groups:
- To give Europe "more soul", which is indispensable both for its legitimacy and for the emergence of a sense of European citizenship.
- To review the priorities, in particular so as to ensure that European institutions operate more efficiently and their key functions are made clearer.
- To give the executive branch precise yet ambitious goals, thus eliciting a new collective dynamism.
- To reform the Commission so as to improve its efficacy.
Thus, as the new Commission settles in, Venceslas Humeur tries here to outline what its programme could be.

Revue

Géopolitique

Europe 2010 : cinq scénarios

The Forward Studies Unit of the European Commission, which was set up in 1989 and made directly responsible to the President of the Commission, has drawn up five contrasting scenarios as a means of describing a spectrum of alternative futures for Europe (in the widest sense) in 2010.
The main architects of these scenarios outline them for us here, having first discussed the advantages and drawbacks of such an exercise, which cannot indeed describe (or pre-dict) precisely what Europe will be like in 2010. Rather, by presenting five consistent, overall and plausible situations, the scenarios are an attempt to illustrate the range of possible outcomes, and the factors and actors that are likely to play a key role.
Each scenario culminates with an image, briefly summarized here:
- Scenario 1, "The triumph of market forces", as its title suggests, is characterized by the complete dominance of economic liberalism and free trade, with Europe - whatever its boundaries - barely differentiated from the rest of the world or integrated into a single global market.
- Scenario 2, "The hundred flowers", by contrast, is marked by the growing paralysis (and corruption) of major institutions, both public and private; the retreat of Europeans into local concerns and the informal economy; and the proliferation of initiatives with no sense of overall purpose.
- Scenario 3, "Shared responsibilities", is based on the assumption that the public sector will undergo fundamental change and, given a favourable economic climate, will generate new social and industrial policies.
- Scenario 4, "Creative societies", also features a radical transformation of our economic and political systems, but this time shaped by concern for the environment and human development. It embodies a new humanism based on sustainable development and opens the way to "an intangible global renaissance".
- Scenario 5, "Turbulent neighbours", describes a shrunken Europe threatened by geo-political upheavals on its eastern and southern flanks, by the growth of tensions and conflicts that lead to the creation of a European Security Council entirely concerned with issues of security and defence.
As we can see, there are many reasons to hope and to fear. The invitation to Europeans to take charge of their future could hardly be stated more clearly.

Bibliography

Géopolitique

« Les ONG : vers un nouveau modèle économique mondial ? »

L'influence et la popularité croissantes des organisations non gouvernementales (ONG) font-elles de ces entités les vecteurs d'un nouveau modèle économique mondial ? C'est sur cette question que le n°71-72 de Repères prospectifs s'est penché au cours de l'été 1999. Une série d'articles extraits de revues telles qu'International Relations, Development in Practice ou Society permet de faire le point sur le rôle que les ONG jouent et peuvent jouer, dans les années à venir ...

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Forum

Géopolitique - Recherche, sciences, techniques

Quelle science pour le XXIe siècle ?

Unesco and the International Council on Sciences jointly sponsored a "World Conference for Science" last year, which took place in Budapest from June 26th to July 1st. The ambition was to define priorities for the twenty-first century.
Dominique Chouchan gives a brief out-look on the summit and some of its highlights: the drastic North-South imbalance, the privatization of research and its consequent conversion to ends that are sometimes quite remote from the most fundamental human needs.

Revue

Géopolitique - Population

Les perspectives démographiques européennes. Une synthèse des projections démographiques à l’horizon 2050 pour les pays de l’Union européenne

This article exposes briefly (and without discussion) the most recent demographic projections drawn for the countries of the European Union for the year 2050, published by the Netherland's Bureau of Statistics for the Statistical Office of the European Communities (Eurostat).
The authors remind us first of the hypotheses - limited to three in each case which have been chosen for each of the given variables: fecundity, mortality and net immigration. They then present the five extreme scenarios implied by all possible combinations of the selected hypotheses and therefore all possible paths of demographic evolution.
While most of the time we only use the median of demographic projections (leading us to suppose that it is the most probable), this synthesis has the merit of showing the complete spectrum of possible futures. It suggests the amplitude of uncertainty concerning the populations of member countries, for although aging is general and irreversible for all of them, the intensity and the schedule of the problem is not identical among countries.

Bibliography

Géopolitique - Ressources naturelles, énergie, environnement

Energy in the 21 st Century : the return of geopolitics

Avec le prix du pétrole à un niveau historiquement bas, il serait rassurant de penser que les crises sont dernière nous. Cependant, le marché de l'énergie n'a jamais été déterminé par des facteurs économiques seuls : la technologie, la politique et les relations internationales doivent aussi être prises en considération. Les chocs pétroliers des anneés 1970 sont intervenus à un moment où la croissance reposait encore largement sur l'utilisation de l'énergie fossile, notamment le pétrole et le ...

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Revue

Géopolitique

Sur le modèle américain. À propos du livre Why the American Century ?

The American Model, Comments on "Why the American Century?"
Henri Mendras gives here a brief analysis of the last book by Olivier Kunz: Why the American Century? which, he thinks, explains remarkably well why the United States is such a power.
He applies himself to define the specifics of the American model: the rise of the middle class, the priority given to collective action, the "social evangelism", and eventually, the creation of a happy synergy between research, industry and concern for the common good which, for example, pushes industry barons to become mecenes and philanthropists.

Revue

Géopolitique - Ressources naturelles, énergie, environnement

Mieux gérer l’océan mondial

Better Management of the World's Oceans
At the end of 1998, the "International Year of the Oceans", Pierre Papon reminds us of their essential role:
- as a provider of natural resources and economic activities;
- as the source of major scientific and technological challenges, considering for example their impact on climate;
- as a communications space on the geopolitical stage.
The author describes current legislation on oceans (more specifically the UN convention on the rights of the sea) and the main recommendations by the independent World Commission on Oceans, which was assembled in 1995 under the presidency of Mario Soares. Papon underlines especially the governance issues which are raised by this common heritage of humanity, and urges Europe to be more proactive in the field.

Bibliography

Économie, emploi - Géopolitique

Scénario pour une nouvelle géographie économique de l’Europe

Dans le nouveau contexte créé par l'intégration monétaire européenne, les décisions de localisation des entreprises et des personnes en Europe sont susceptibles d'être modifiées. Dès lors, comment anticiper les grandes lignes de recomposition spatiales et sectorielles des systèmes productifs des pays membres ? À plus long terme, l'accélération de la diffusion du changement technologique en cours et l'élargissement à l'Est influeront-ils sur cette répartition de l'activité ? Et quelles orientations donner à des politiques structurelles pour ...

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Bibliography

Géopolitique

Regards sur les ambitions turques

Souvent présentée comme le pont entre l'Orient et l'Occident, la Turquie a fait l'objet de nombreux ouvrages. Celui-ci a le mérite de présenter ce pays dans ses dimensions à la fois intérieures et extérieures. On y trouve à la fois des réflexions relatives au fonctionnement dit démocratique de la Turquie qui, une fois n'est pas coutume, ont l'honnêteté de constater le déficit démocratique de ce que certains présentent parfois comme le « modèle démocratique » de la ...

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Bibliography

Géopolitique - Société, modes de vie

Les Racines de l’identité européenne

De quelle Europe parlons-nous au seuil du XXIe siècle ? Que reste-t-il des vieilles solidarités et similitudes profondes qui nous ont unis et qui nous permettent de parler d'une culture européenne comme d'un ferment de civilisation ? Quelle identité commune la machine administrative européenne a-t-elle engendrée ? Au-delà des héritages du passé (grecs, romains, chrétiens, les droits de l'homme, l'enseignement des Lumières...), l'identité européenne d'aujourd'hui et de demain mérite un débat. À l'initiative de Gérard-François ...

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Bibliography

Économie, emploi - Géopolitique

L’État du monde 2000. Annuaire économique géopolitique mondial

Cette nouvelle édition de L'État du monde, dont la maquette a été « relookée », se compose comme les années précédentes de deux parties, l'une intitulée « Le monde en mutation » et destinée à poser les grands enjeux internationaux du moment, l'autre reprenant les pays du monde un par un et en présentant les principales caractéristiques, statistiques à l'appui. Cette seconde partie est comme toujours un instrument particulièrement utile pour tous ceux que la vie internationale intéresse, de près ...

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Bibliography

Géopolitique - Société, modes de vie

Éloge de la résistance à l’air du temps

Militant de longue date et spécialiste des mouvements sociaux, Daniel Bensaïd livre ici un ouvrage visant à renouveler l'action politique, notamment à l'occasion des élections européennes de juin 1999. S'insurgeant contre la prédominance de l'économie sur le social, il préconise une véritable Europe sociale, capable de changer les structures de nos sociétés européennes en profondeur. À cet effet, il entend relancer l'action politique comme « art du possible et du changement social » et non en tant ...

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Bibliography

Géopolitique - Institutions

La Privatisation des États

Publié sous la direction de Béatrice Hibou, dans la collection « Recherches internationales » du CERI (Centre d'études et de recherches internationales), cet ouvrage collectif examine les processus de privatisation en cours dans le monde, processus qui ne se cantonnent pas seulement au domaine des entreprises mais concernent dans certains pays les services publics, les ressources économiques (appropriation et exploitation privées des forêts, minerais et pierres précieuses) et même certaines fonctions régaliennes de l'État telles que la fiscalité ou encore ...

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Chapitre Géopolitique

Ce chapitre est extrait du Rapport Vigie 2016 de Futuribles International, qui propose un panorama structuré des connaissances et des incertitudes des experts que l'association a mobilisés pour explorer les évolutions des 15 à 35 prochaines années sur 11 thématiques.