Géopolitique

Cette page regroupe l'ensemble des publications de Futuribles sur cette thématique (Vigie, revue, bibliographie, études, etc.)

Forum

Géopolitique

Retour au Moyen Âge ?

No, Mr Fukuyama, the end of communism was not "the end of history", the final victory of the free market ideology exemplified by the United States, argues Jean-Jacques Salomon. He reminds us that Pierre Hassner expressed the fear that, on the contrary, the post-Cold War period might be the beginning of a new Middle Ages.
The events of September 11th mark a major geopolitical turning-point and require a radical change of attitude and policies on the part of the United States, Salomon argues. In order to make clear what this involves, he looks briefly at the situation "before" (a recently elected President, an unwavering supporter of ultraliberalism, convinced of American supremacy and the universal applicability of its model of development) and "after", which is likely to see the federal government revert to being strongly interventionist and ready to combat the ill-effects of unbridled capitalism.
What is likely to happen after that, wonders Jean-Jacques Salomon? Maybe this mobilization against terrorism will hasten European integration or encourage the industrialized countries to be less arrogant, to seek for ways and means of achieving lasting peace and greater North-South cooperation as a result of shifts in alliances and allegiances...
The author does not, however, rule out the possibility that the Muslim world will "catch on fire". He stresses that "the war against terrorism", unless it resolutely attacks terrorism's deep roots in poverty and humiliation and hence in resentment of the rich countries, is quite unlike any other war: it may have no end.

Forum

Géopolitique

Essai de prospective mondiale après le 11 septembre 2001

The article has three parts. In the first, Jacques Lesourne makes it clear that the terrorist attacks in September 2001 and their consequences unfortunately merely confirm what was foreseen by futures studies in earlier years. "September 11th was not unthinkable", he writes, and goes on to remind us that terrorism has existed for centuries, it is not linked uniquely to Islamic fundamentalism, and it is probably hopeless to try to eradicate it...
He also points out that since the United States has become the only Great Power in the world, it is the natural scapegoat. Furthermore, as he has often insisted, the Arab-Turkish-Iranian region is particularly dangerous, and this fact is not sufficiently clearly recognized by the democracies, which have tended to emphasize freedom at the expense of their security.
In the second part, Lesourne ponders the trends that might develop out of the September 11th attacks. He argues that Western countries will probably need to review their security policies and reevaluate their systems of defence. But he also foresees some shifts in the alliances, especially among the six main elements: the United States, European Union, Russia, Japan, China and India. Finally, he stresses that these events threaten to deepen the downturn in the world economy which had already begun, and to encourage governments to adopt coordinated regulatory policies.
Despite the hazards involved, Jacques Lesourne ends by sketching three scenarios with particular emphasis on what he takes to be the key variables: the nature of the American retaliation and its outcome, the movements of public opinion in Western countries, the degree to which the United States accepts great multilateralism, and the progress towards European unification.
Choosing from among 32 theoretically possible scenarios, he describes three that cover widely differing variations: the "minor event", "improvements in world governance" and "generalized disorder".

Forum

Géopolitique

Islam, islamisme et violence

Let us not confuse Islam and the vast majority of the Muslim population, who want simply to live in peace, with Islamic fundamentalism, a fortiori with Islamic terrorism, says Gérard Donnadieu. He nevertheless proposes to analyse the factors within the religious ideas of Islam that might encourage violence, while also stressing that no religion is safe from extremism.
He goes on to explain that people can have widely differing attitudes to Islam, and then to outline the peculiar views of some fundamentalists, such as the Egyptian Hasan al-Banna, founder of the Muslim Brotherhood, and above all the Pakistani Maulana Abul Maudoudi, the founder of Jamat-i-islami, a radical Islamic movement, whose book Understanding Islam provides valuable insights.
Gérard Donnadieu sketches briefly three topics discussed by Maudoudi that he finds especially revealing:
- the absolute preeminence of Islam, which preaches unfaltering obedience to everything prescribed in the Koran and the charia;
- the supreme position of the "good Muslim" who is promised a place in Allah's paradise as a reward for irreproachable behaviour;
- the justification for resorting to violence: every Muslim must be ready to defend Islam and if necessary to join in the jihad (holy war). This radical version of Islam believes in sacrifice, and justifies the use of violence and war.
In the last part of his article, Gérard Donnadieu highlights the strengths and weaknesses of Islamic fundamentalism. He argues that, faced with the modern world and the problem of controlling violence, it is deeply archaic and that "we are probably only seeing the start of its violent and spectacular manifestations".
He concludes that "We cannot rule out the possibility that a non-sacrificial, pluralist and secularized version of Islam will emerge in the future", but this would require a more modern reinterpretation of the basic texts; this would be a major challenge first of all for the Muslim world.

Revue

Éducation - Géopolitique

Les systèmes éducatifs en Europe

There is no single European model for education, let alone a universally accepted one. Even within the European Union there is enormous diversity, which Francine Vaniscotte sets out to describe here.
Two different views coexist, she explains: the first combines primary education with the first stage of secondary education (everyone attends a single school), whereas the second considers an initial division (selection?) at the beginning of secondary schooling to be necessary.
Taking her analysis a step further, the author identifies four types of education system within the EU:
- the single school model (everyone attends the same school for the whole period of compulsory education) operating in Scandinavia;
- the all-purpose school model, offering pupils a variety of possibilities at secondary level (Great Britain);
- the streamed school model, which is structured according to options chosen early on, but with some degree of mobility between them; this is the most common arrangement in Austria, Germany, Luxemburg, Switzerland, etc.;
- the common core model (France, Greece, Italy, Portugal, Spain), which is inspired by the single school model but does not fully apply it, and is shaped by very different traditions and values.
These differences relate to religious traditions and to deep cultural disparities; they also reflect ideological differences, Francine Vaniscotte emphasizes, though she concludes by pointing out some factors bringing the models closer together.

Revue

Éducation - Géopolitique

Six scénarios sur l’École

Alain Michel proposes six scenarios for the future of schools in the industrialized countries over the next 15 to 20 years. The scenarios have been developed as part of the programme on "Tomorrow's schools" of the Centre for Research and Innovation in Education (CERI) at OECD (the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development).
Under the first scenario the status quo continues, which would mean generally deteriorating schools, despite some marginal improvements.
The second scenario, called "Extending the market model", shows what might happen if state schools were at least partly privatized, ultimately leading to a greater split between the public and private sectors in education.
The third scenario, called "Schools at the heart of the community", represents the exact opposite, in which education is considered to be a public good, and schools would play a key role in promoting citizenship.
The fourth scenario, too, "Schools as key learning institutions", tries to respond to the need to upgrade the role and prestige of education whilst placing greater emphasis on the responsibilities of schools to develop knowledge and skills.
By contrast, the remaining two scenarios reflect forms of decline. In the fifth, "Networks of learners" within a society composed of networks (typical of today! ) the main features are the fragmentation of national education systems, the diminishing role of the state and, simultaneously, the rise of local school systems and major networks.
The final scenario has the striking title "The flight of teachers and collapse". It foresees schools deteriorating and general discontent, especially on the part of parents and teachers. This is probably unlikely to occur within the next 20 years, and would happen only if there were major upheavals in the short or medium term.
Obviously these scenarios are not all equally probable, and are even less likely to occur in every part of the OECD area. Furthermore, some of them are more hypothetical while others are more normative. Nonetheless, they are extremely useful in quashing fears of possibilities that clearly remain open. They also show the importance of the issues facing schools today.

Revue

Entreprises, travail - Géopolitique - Recherche, sciences, techniques

L’essor du télétravail en Europe

The European Commission publishes an annual report on distance working in Europe. Anne de Beer, on the basis the 2000 Edition, observes that distance working is on the increase in Europe, in spite of the different forms it adopts and the significant differences in its popularity from one country to another.
For instance, this report reveals that although the number of distance workers in Europe rose above 10 million last year, this form of work is much more frequent in Scandinavian countries than in the Mediterranean, with France at the bottom of the list... except in terms of creating obstacles to its development.

Revue

Géopolitique - Institutions

Wesphalie II : pour un nouvel ordre mondial

Westphalia II: Towards a New World Order

The Treaty of Westphalia (1648) was at the origin of the Nation State defined as a sovereign entity with a specific territory and lead, at a global level, to intergovernmental institutions, which have now been rendered obsolete by a process of unfettered globalisation. It is hence high time to create, according to Kimon Valaskakis, if not a global governance system, at least an 'effective global guidance system'. This is the scope of what he has dubbed "Westphalia II".
The author first describes the institutions that came out of "Westphalia I" characterised, according to him, by sovereign Nation States within a specific geographical territory and represented by a Government, vested with the exclusive power to wage war and sign international treaties.
According to the author, because of the way globalisation has developed since 1945, this system is now under threat due to the simultaneous undermining of the sovereignty of States from the bottom (decentralisation), from the top (federalism) and transversally (market forces), due to the reduction in the impact of distance and due to the appearance of new actors on the world scene, new sources of law and new sources of conflicts. This globalisation without rules or referee is dangerous and a source of inequality and barbaric conflicts.
Therefore, according to Kimon Valaskakis, we need to invent a new form of governance for the 21st century, which could follow two very different scenarios. It could either be characterised by a privatisation of governance, a system governed by the market (a dollar = a vote), corporations or even organised crime, something that could lead to the worst excesses. Or it could follow a second scenario, dubbed "Westphalia II", leading to new public institutions which, according to the author who is the President of the Athens Club, can only be constructed on the basis of a new form of co-operation between political thinkers and actors aimed at building an 'effective global guidance system'. What could this be?

Bibliography

Entreprises, travail - Géopolitique - Territoires, réseaux

L’Europe de demain sera-t-elle polycentrique ?

La prospective de l'aménagement de l'espace français doit intégrer une réflexion sur l'évolution de l'Union européenne, en particulier depuis la rédaction d'un document de référence : le SDEC. Ce Schéma préconise un développement spatial polycentrique, objectif partagé par la DATAR. Après s'être interrogé sur le statut du SDEC et sur la pertinence du concept de polycentrisme, on évalue les chances d'une Europe plus équilibrée. Un scénario purement tendanciel confirme la prééminence de l'Euromégalopole ...

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Editorial

Géopolitique - Institutions

Le défi de la gouvernance

Faisant l'impasse sur des siècles de réflexion émanant de philosophes politiques sur la genèse de l'État, les formes de gouvernement et, en définitive, le devenir d'institutions publiques supposées incarner et être garantes du bien commun, voici venu le terme de " gouvernance ", mot valise s'il en est, qui donne lieu depuis quelques années à une abondante littérature. À l'origine de ce courant figure sans conteste la prise de conscience que l'État, seule instance légitime et ...

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Bibliography

Géopolitique

The Making of Chinese Foreign and Security Policy in the Era of Reform

Same Bed, Different Dreams: Managing United States-China Relations, 1989-2000 (Berkeley : University of California Press, 2001, 510 p.), le dernier ouvrage de David M. Lampton, traitait des relations sino-américaines. L'auteur, directeur du programme d'études chinoises à la Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies et au Nixon Center de Washington, présente aujourd'hui un travail collectif qu'il a initié et dirigé depuis 1996 et qui étudie la politique étrangère de la république populaire de Chine (RPC) dans le ...

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Bibliography

Géopolitique

Un guide pour les réflexions prospectives en Afrique

Les travaux de prospective sont nombreux et ont proliféré à l'aube du troisième millénaire. Ils apparaissent d'autant plus nécessaires que la mondialisation a accéléré le temps et que comme le rappelle Gaston Berger « rouler vite sans rien voir serait proprement folie ». Ce guide pour des réflexions prospectives vient à point nommé pour présenter le processus de réflexion prospective, développer les étapes analytiques et montrer les intérêts et les limites des méthodes concernant les prospectives africaines. Préfacé par Alioune ...

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Bibliography

Géopolitique - Société, modes de vie

La Situation sociale dans l’Union européenne 2001

Ce deuxième rapport annuel sur la situation sociale en Europe fournit des données précieuses destinées à confirmer le rôle stratégique de la politique sociale au sein de l'UE tel qu'il a été défini par le sommet de Lisbonne puis celui de Nice. Il brosse tout d'abord un tableau global des principales tendances observées dans le domaine social (vieillissement, diminution de la taille des ménages, état de la cohésion sociale, conditions de travail et de vie...) au niveau ...

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Bibliography

Géopolitique

Sud-Liban : scénarios de crise

Les deux guerres qui se déroulent simultanément, la première lancée par les États-Unis contre le terrorisme au lendemain du 11 septembre 2001, la seconde, israélo-palestinienne, déclenchée un an plus tôt, ont fini par masquer la persistance d'un autre foyer de tension : celui qui couve à la frontière libano-israélienne. Un quart de siècle après l'instauration par l'État hébreu de la zone de sécurité, « libérée » en mai 2000, le Sud-Liban demeure cette frontière gangrenée par laquelle une guerre peut ...

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Bibliography

Géopolitique

Rethinking Europe’s Future

David P. Calleo est professeur à la John Hopkins University. Il a écrit plusieurs livres économiques et géopolitiques notamment Beyond American Hegemony: the Future of Western Alliance et une histoire sur le problème allemand dans le système mondial depuis 1870. Le thème central de son dernier ouvrage sur le futur de l'Europe est une interrogation. La guerre froide avait donné à l'Europe une sorte de stabilité, que va-t-il advenir maintenant qu'elle a pris fin ? De nombreux problèmes ...

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Bibliography

Géopolitique

Twenty-First Century World Order and the Asia-Pacific : Value Change, Exigencies, and Power Realignment

L'Asie apportera-t-elle la paix au monde ? Au XXIe siècle, sa participation accrue à la vie du « village global » serait-elle, comme l'affirme la conclusion de cet ouvrage, gage d'une nouvelle ère de paix ? Si l'on reste dubitatif quant à ce final, les contributions rassemblées ici sous la direction de James C. Hsiung n'en demeurent pas moins riches d'enseignements pour envisager les recompositions de l'ordre régional en Asie-Pacifique. Les interactions avec l'ordre mondial et ...

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Bibliography

Géopolitique - Territoires, réseaux

Intégration paneuropéenne dans les transports. Scénario de référence pour le trafic en Europe

Dans ce document, la démarche est de choisir un scénario de « référence » pour l'Union européenne et les PECO (pays d'Europe centrale et orientale) qui soit basé sur les tendances de long terme observées dans le système de transport, et à partir duquel des scénarios alternatifs pourront ensuite être construits. La première partie décrit l'environnement socio-économique au travers de quelques variables essentielles, comme l'activité économique, la démographie, le taux de motorisation, le prix des carburants et la ...

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Bibliography

Économie, emploi - Géopolitique

Government and Politics in Southeast Asia

Sous la direction de John Funston, cet ouvrage rassemble les contributions de neuf spécialistes de l'Asie du Sud-Est et couvre l'ensemble des 10 pays qui composent l'ASEAN (Association of South-East Asia Nations). Divisé en 10 chapitres, un par pays, il présente pour chacun d'eux une analyse détaillée des pratiques politiques en vigueur. En introduction, une synthèse rappelle les caractéristiques historiques, géographiques, sociales et économiques dans lesquelles s'enracine l'évolution du pays. Elle est accompagnée d ...

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Bibliography

Économie, emploi - Géopolitique

The Coming Collapse of China

Fils d'un émigrant chinois qui s'est installé aux États-Unis, l'auteur de ce livre, Gordon G. Chang, a longtemps travaillé pour un cabinet d'avocats américain implanté en Chine, avant de se consacrer à l'écriture de cet ouvrage qui n'annonce rien moins que l'effondrement du régime politique chinois aux alentours de 2006. « Aujourd'hui, quelque part dans ce pays, il y a quelqu'un qui mettra fin à l'État chinois dans sa forme actuelle ...

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Bibliography

Géopolitique

Trends in Outside Support for Insurgent Movements

Le soutien à une rébellion est un instrument de politique étrangère commun depuis la guerre froide. Les États-Unis et l'Union soviétique ont souvent en effet transformé des guerres locales en questions internationales. La fin de la guerre froide n'a pas mis un terme à l'instrumentalisation des révoltes, mais la dimension et la nature de l'aide extérieure, ainsi que l'identité des donateurs, ont changé. Sur 74 conflits repérés depuis la fin de la guerre froide, 44 ...

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Chapitre Géopolitique

Ce chapitre est extrait du Rapport Vigie 2016 de Futuribles International, qui propose un panorama structuré des connaissances et des incertitudes des experts que l'association a mobilisés pour explorer les évolutions des 15 à 35 prochaines années sur 11 thématiques.