Géopolitique

Cette page regroupe l'ensemble des publications de Futuribles sur cette thématique (Vigie, revue, bibliographie, études, etc.)

Revue

Économie, emploi - Géopolitique

Les pays européens à l’épreuve des taux d’emploi

Achille Seghin provides here a masterly evaluation of how the countries of Europe perform in terms of employment, measured by the percentage of the economically active population (aged 15-64, as for all international comparisons) actually in work.
Readers of Futuribles will be familiar with this indicator because we have long argued in favour of it, and it has indeed been adopted at recent European summit meetings. Nevertheless, Achille Seghin reminds us of the advantages of this indicator, especially compared with unemployment rates, which are more commonly used as a yardstick.
First he surveys the comparative performances of European countries over the last 30 years. Then, refining the analysis to take account of part-time work, he calculates a 'modified' employment rate. Finally, looking at employment by sector, he estimates employment rates for each sector: manufacturing, then services, both commercial and non-commercial.
In conclusion, Seghin argues that contrasting trends can be observed across Europe. Furthermore, he points out that the countries with the highest employment rates also have the highest levels of part-time workers, and those where the employment rate in the commercial sector is highest also have the highest rate in the non-commercial sector.

CR table ronde

Géopolitique - Société, modes de vie

L’esprit des nations

Au sein de la Rand Corporation, principale organisation de recherche privée américaine sur les problèmes géopolitiques, stratégiques et de défense comptant 1 500 personnes, dont 800 chercheurs, Laurent Murawiec se consacre essentiellement à l'application de l'anthropologie à la stratégie.Venu présenter au sein de l'association Futuribles International son dernier ouvrage, le premier tome de L'Esprit des nations, il a insisté toutefois sur le fait que c'est indépendamment de la Rand Corporation qu'il l'a ...

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Forum

Géopolitique - Institutions - Recherche, sciences, techniques

Les élections présidentielles françaises. Douze questions majeures

French voters will be turning out on 21 April and 5 May for the two rounds of an election to choose a new President of the Republic. It is a key position in France since, even if the government, which is elected separately from the President, is responsible for deciding and implementing national policies, and even if the periods of "cohabitation" (with President and parliamentary majority from different parties) have brought some changes (our system is in effect a presidential one).
The campaign has not yet officially begun, nor have all the candidates officially announced they are standing, but there is no doubt that everyone is secretly preparing for the election. There is already, however, a sickening stink arising from various sordid scandals involving several of the contenders, and this does not bode well for the campaign (if it continues to be conducted in the same terms), there is a strong risk that there will not be a proper debate on the major issues affecting the French people in the medium and long term, let alone the policies that may be adopted.
The editorial committee of the journal Futuribles is deeply concerned that the questions that we feel to be critical for the future of the country might be sidestepped in this way. We have therefore decided this month to create a special section in which, without trying to be exhaustive, we examine the candidates' propositions with regard to the issues that we do not want to see dodged. The section therefore raises questions about security and defense policies, energy policy, the issue of sustainable development, policies on innovation, research and education, on employment and measures to cope with the challenges of an ageing population. It also addresses the problems of public services and tax reform, citizenship and types of management, without forgetting, naturally, to quiz the candidates on sleaze.
We are well aware that we can only scratch the surface of these topics. Other issues are just as important and should be on the agenda: what are their policies for health, housing, inequality, the fight against social exclusion and delinquency? What about policies for economic and social development, the environment, science and technology...? The list of major issues facing French society in the short, medium and long term is lengthy. And the state, even if it cannot cope with all of them and even if nobody expects it to produce miracle solutions, has a role to play in tackling them, including to undertake reform of itself and to allow the spirit of enterprise to flourish...

Forum

Géopolitique

L’après-11 septembre. Retour à la prospective

After reminding us of three scenarios outlined barely a month after the attacks of September 11th, as a "minor event", as an invitation to the US to play a greater role in world governance, and as the start of general upheaval and decline in the economic situation, Jacques Lesourne continues to reflect on the foreseeable consequences of these acts of terrorism.
Five months after the events, Lesourne takes several observations, the overthrow of the Taliban regime, the tenacity of the Pakistan government, the relatively minor impact on the world economy, the strengthening of America's leadership, as the basis for redefining the new geopolitical state of the world. This depends on about a dozen active countries, of very different kinds and rank. He examines their strengths and weaknesses, their economic interests and their strategic positions.
Having noted the underlying economic and political issues, Jacques Lesourne sketches two scenarios :
- in the first, the events of September 11th continue to have a minor impact, "shaped by Europe's lack of involvement, the rapprochement between the Americans and Russians, the highly pragmatic policy of the US towards Pakistan, Saudi Arabia, Iran and the conflict between Israel and the Palestinians", with little overall effect on the world economy;
- in the second, the emphasis is on political crises (in Kashmir, Pakistan, Saudi Arabia, Palestine, Afghanistan) and tensions, leading among other things to interruptions of oil supplies to Europe and Japan, and then to military interventions and ultimately to
clashes of civilizations.
Shortly after the events, many commentators argued that the attacks on the US marked the end of an era. The scenarios outlined here show that the reality may be somewhat different.

Forum

Géopolitique

2011 : un monde fragmenté

In this article Niall Ferguson reflects on how life may change between now and 2011, especially in the USA, and what lasting impacts the terrorist attacks of September 11th are likely to have on the course of history. Unlike many other commentators on recent events, he does not see this as a watershed in world affairs.
Admittedly nothing will ever be quite the same as before: New York threatens to become obsessed with security and the US economy will suffer the consequences. Nevertheless, this prospect (which he describes as 'sombre') is not the result of September 11th. Rather, he argues, it is the product of four strong trends that were already observable before that date:
1) The worldwide reach of terrorism: the techniques used are not new, but the novelty is that now the US is no longer spared from attack and will have to make this part of their domestic security arrangements.
2) The economic slowdown which had already begun more than a year earlier in the US and which could worsen on account of two major weaknesses: first, the fact that globalization is creating more and more have-nots; and secondly, the very real risk of a third energy crisis that could bring to an end the era of the combustion engine.
3) The shift, for the US, from informal imperialism (simply through political and economic influence) to formal imperialism (involving actual intervention on the ground and setting up 'protectorates' along neo-colonial lines).
4) The political disintegration of multi-cultural nation-states: if there is to be a clash of civilizations, it will not be between two major blocs (the West versus unified Islam) but between ethnic or religious communities within a single state, as happened in Bosnia or Rwanda .
These trends, Niall Ferguson argues, already existed before the wave of terrorist attacks in September 2001, and their consequences for national security and international relations could be foreseen beforehand. It is only a possibility for the future, Ferguson says, but one he believes will occur: we must be prepared to live with the daily threat of terrorism, with the presence of American soldiers in more and more 'problem' countries, and with a de facto segregation of ethnic and religious communities, not only within US cities.

Futurs d'antan

Entreprises, travail - Géopolitique

Plaidoyer pour l’Europe politique

The text we reprint here is an excerpt from a note written by Louis Armand for Jean-Jacques Servan-Schreiber and published as an appendix to the latter's book Le Défi américain, which appeared in 1967 (Paris: Denoël). It was also worked up into a book that is equally worth rereading: Le Pari européen, by Louis Armand and Michel Drancourt (Paris: Fayard, 1968).
It is a remarkable piece. Written more than 30 years ago, it highlights the urgent need, in the early days of the 'global village', to build a federal Europe involving not just economic and technological co-operation but also social unity, a Europe with a shared ethics, philosophy and political outlook.
Louis Armand is ahead of his time in foreseeing what is now called globalization, and he quite rightly stresses the role that Europe might have, how important it is not to waste time in trying to force national characteristics into uniformity but instead for countries to 'develop new things together'; above all, Europe must show great inventiveness in matters of organization.
'Europe', writes Armand, 'doesn't know what it wants. And as long as it doesn't, it will not be able to play a leading role in the world.' The risk, as he sees it, is that Europe will become 'politically archaic'. To avoid this, priority must be given to the political aspect and to the building of a federal Europe.

CR table ronde

Géopolitique

Hyperterrorisme : la nouvelle guerre

Quatre mois et quatre jours après les évènements du 11 septembre 2001, François Heisbourg est venu faire le point sur la montée de l'"hyperterrorisme", la riposte occidentale et, plus généralement, les perspectives géopolitiques, y compris le réagencement des alliances. Quels sont les enseignements à tirer des attentats ?

Bibliography

Géopolitique

Cachemire : au péril de la guerre

« Point de contact ou point d'affrontement » entre l'Inde, le Pakistan et la Chine, le Cachemire fut longtemps le théâtre d'un conflit oublié aux enjeux obscurs et se jouant dans les solitudes glacées des cimes de l'Himalaya. Malgré des dizaines de milliers de morts, il faudra attendre les essais nucléaires de l'Inde et du Pakistan en 1998 et surtout les conséquences des attentats du 11 septembre 2001 à New York, suivis par la guerre contre le ...

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Bibliography

Économie, emploi - Géopolitique

Mondialisation financière et terrorisme. La donne a-t-elle changé depuis le 11 septembre ?

À l'image d'autres experts, René Passet et Jean Liberman observent, en introduction à cet ouvrage, que les attentats du 11 septembre 2001 ont à la fois sonné l'avènement d'un « hyperterrorisme » mondialisé et le glas de l'inviolabilité des États-Unis sur leur territoire. Ce qui fonde l'originalité de la thèse défendue par le professeur d'économie et le journaliste est la mise en relation, sur fond de paupérisation croissante au Sud, entre mondialisation de l'économie ...

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Bibliography

Économie, emploi - Géopolitique

« Les ONG, acteurs de la mondialisation »

Le rôle joué par les ONG (organisations non gouvernementales) dans les décisions politiques soulève plusieurs interrogations quant à l'effectivité et la légitimité de leur pouvoir. C'est un des enjeux que ce dossier permet de mieux comprendre, mais celui-ci explore également les différents types d'actions menées par ces organisations, étudiant leur histoire et leurs formes les plus actuelles, mettant en valeur la dimension très bénéfique de leur rôle. La situation des ONG semble cependant caractérisée par un double ...

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Bibliography

Géopolitique

Japan : The Burden of Success

Spécialiste du Japon au Centre d'études des relations internationales (CERI), Jean-Marie Bouissou présente dans cet ouvrage publié en anglais une adaptation de l'édition française de son ouvrage sur le Japon contemporain (L'Envers du consensus. Les conflits et leur gestion dans le Japon contemporain. Paris : Presses de Sciences Po, 1997. Également, Le Japon depuis 1945. Paris : Armand Colin, 1997). Cette nouvelle version en anglais est naturellement mise à jour et tient compte des évolutions qui sont intervenues jusqu ...

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Bibliography

Géopolitique - Institutions

De quel droit ? Le droit international humanitaire et les dommages collatéraux

Doctrine du « zéro mort » ou encore « dommages collatéraux » appartiennent au nouveau langage des militaires occidentaux pour masquer les bavures et rassurer l'opinion publique. Ces termes sont systématiquement employés par les états-majors militaires lors des interventions armées de la communauté internationale. La première guerre du Golfe (1991), l'intervention de l'Organisation du traité de l'Atlantique Nord au Kosovo (1999) et, plus récemment, la riposte américaine en Afghanistan (2001) ont illustré ces pratiques. Le poids grandissant des victimes civiles ...

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Bibliography

Géopolitique

L’Année stratégique 2003. Analyse des enjeux stratégiques, diplomatiques et économiques

Ouvrage de référence publié par les chercheurs de l'Institut de relations internationales et stratégiques, avec la collaboration des journalistes de France-Info, L'Année stratégique 2003 est consacrée en grande partie à l'après-11 septembre 2001. Pour les spécialistes de l'Iris, les attentats terroristes sur New York et Washington ne constituent pas forcément une rupture historique sur l'échiquier stratégique international, à l'image de la fin de la Seconde Guerre mondiale (1945) ou de la chute du mur ...

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Bibliography

Entreprises, travail - Géopolitique - Recherche, sciences, techniques

Organisation du travail et santé dans l’Union Européenne

Basé sur la troisième enquête européenne sur les conditions de travail, ce rapport étudie les liens entre organisation du travail et conditions de travail. Une typologie des formes d'organisation peut être dégagée. Quatre groupes peuvent être ainsi construits : travail de " servitude ", travail " flexible ", travail en " autonomie " et travail " sous automatisme ". Chacune de ces formes d'organisation correspond à des risques et des atteintes à la santé ou à la dignité particulières. Cette approche met en évidence des groupes plus ...

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Bibliography

Éducation - Géopolitique

Enseignement supérieur et recherche pour l’espace Européen de la recherche : tendances actuelles et défis pour le proche avenir

Un groupe d'experts STRATA-ETAN a été constitué en décembre 2001 avec pour mission de préparer un rapport sur des options visant à soutenir la coopération européenne en matière de prospective pour le développement des relations entre l'enseignement supérieur et la recherche dans la perspective de l'Espace Européen de Recherche. Partant d'une analyse approfondie des tendances actuelles qu'il a pu cerner pour les différents aspects du système d'enseignement supérieur et de recherche en Europe, le ...

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Chapitre Géopolitique

Ce chapitre est extrait du Rapport Vigie 2016 de Futuribles International, qui propose un panorama structuré des connaissances et des incertitudes des experts que l'association a mobilisés pour explorer les évolutions des 15 à 35 prochaines années sur 11 thématiques.