Géopolitique

Cette page regroupe l'ensemble des publications de Futuribles sur cette thématique (Vigie, revue, bibliographie, études, etc.)

Forum

Géopolitique

Les relations internationales futures : trois visages

In an article published in the July 2003 issue of the journal Prospect, Robert Skidelsky offered an analysis of how international relations might develop in future and set out three possible scenarios. Bernard Cazes provides a critical account of the article, discussing each of the three scenarios: Pax Americana, a new international balance of power and a new version of multilateralism. This analysis nicely complements the suggestions of Robert Toulemon, in this issue of Futuribles, with regard to the reform of the United Nations system, especially concerning the third scenario, a refurbished form multilateralism, which is the one that Robert Skidelsky seems to prefer.

Revue

Géopolitique - Institutions

Russie : la « verticale du pouvoir « 

In this opinion piece, Viviane du Castel surveys the current political and geostrategic situation in Russia following the overwhelming re-election of Vladimir Putin as President of the Russian Federation.
While representative democracy seems to be in a poor way, with opposition parties marginalized and the freedom of the press increasingly threatened, the economy is at a crossroads. A temporary halt to market reforms and a gradual "sovietization" of big industry is accompanied by major uncertainties generated by the clash between the Kremlin and the so-called oligarchs, who are seen as too powerful and too independent. Viviane du Castel discusses the range of options available to Putin during his second term, in which he holds all the political reins in his hands.
In terms of foreign policy, Russia's position today hardly differs from what it was under the Czars: it has to combine its ambitions vis-à-vis the West (i.e. Europe and the United States), the East (mainly China) and what the Russians still call "the near abroad", which this old imperial power cannot disregard for very long. Moreover, the Russian gambit towards China, the European Union and the Atlantic alliance - all now on its borders - can be seen clearly both in its direct international relations and in its actions in those areas that have often been viewed as an essential part of its outer defences: Kaliningrad, Moldavia, Ukraine, the Baltic states, the Caucasus and Central Asia remain the preferred regions where Russia exercises its muscle. Energy issues, for example, are a good indicator of Moscow's degree of influence on policy.
The real challenge for the country now is to achieve a balance among these three regional power games so as to maximize Russia's role and international influence.
Viviane du Castel provides here the keys to understanding the issues facing a Russian President who seeks to restore his office to the central role within the "vertical" power hierarchy that he wants to re-establish in the anarchic Federation that Russia is today.

CR table ronde

Géopolitique

Guerre et terrorisme : où vont les États-Unis ?

Bruno Tertrais considère qu’il n’aurait que peu de choses à changer dans son livre La Guerre sans fin. L’Amérique dans l’engrenage s’il devait le publier aujourd’hui, et que son livre risque d’être d’actualité encore pendant longtemps. Convaincu que pour faire une bonne prospective, il faut d’abord faire une bonne rétrospective, Bruno Tertrais présente tout d’abord comment certains courants de pensée aujourd’hui très influents aux États-Unis sont apparus au cours ...

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Revue

Géopolitique

Chine / Russie : deux futurs possibles en 2025

In this article Rémi Perelman offers two scenarios for the way that relations may develop between the two regional giants undergoing "reconversion": China and Russia.
During a period of more than 20 years, despite their ideological links, Maoist China and the Soviet Union maintained their own kind of Cold War, assembling troops on their common borders because of fears of invasion. After the collapse of the Soviet Union, Sino-Russian relations were normalized, as each country tried to secure its place on the world economic stage and resume its role as a "normal" participant in international relations.
While China quickly became a key economic player, Russia has struggled to make headway in this area. Both nations nevertheless remain important political and military powers, and their position in international discussions cannot be ignored. Along with the European Union, they constitute the only opposition to American dominance. Their effectiveness would be all the greater if they cooperated with each other.
Taking as his starting-point various recent instances of collaboration between the two countries and, more broadly, with the Central Asian republics, Rémi Perelman outlines two scenarios for 2025: in the first, the current situation continues, with each of the two nations trying to improve its own position but without hurting the other, though also without becoming a real threat to North America; in the second, moves are made towards pan-Asian regional integration and this creates a genuinely three-way system - but perhaps only two-way if Europe does not manage to maintain its position ...

Bibliography

Économie, emploi - Géopolitique

« La voie étroite de l’élargissement monétaire »

L'entrée dans l'Union européenne des 10 pays entrants, le 1er mai 2004, ne ferme pas le chantier de l'élargissement : l'adoption de l'euro sera la prochaine étape de l'intégration des nouveaux membres. Ceci leur impose de respecter les critères définis dans le traité de Maastricht, et en particulier de participer au SME (système monétaire européen) bis pendant au moins deux années. Cette exigence est une source importante d'incertitude, car la convergence économique ne s ...

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Revue

Géopolitique

L’Europe en crise : quelle issue ?

Europe is currently experiencing an acute crisis. What can be done?
Pierre Bonnaure here outlines four possible scenarios for the future of the European Union, each of them corresponding to a different school of thought.
But above all, inspired by the "Delors method", he suggests a strategy which would relaunch the construction of a Europe worthy of its name.
Primarily, by recalling the central role that European institutions should play in the construction of a main communal body, he defines the principal constituants. Then, from this main body, by developing projects which, if need be, are suitably adaptable.
Assuming that this condition is met, Europe will, the author stresses, find itself confronted with major challenges:
- on an internal level, with expansion, the change from the industrial era to that of the knowledge-based society, and the essential reform of social welfare systems;
- externally, and perhaps a little more long-term, with the problem of the post-oil era, (or high-cost oil), competition from Asia and that of the European construction of a veritable policy of security and communal defence.

Forum

Géopolitique - Institutions

La haute fonction publique internationale

In this article General Alain Lamballe, who has held many high-level posts involving international strategic relations, stresses how the English-speaking nations, especially the British, have succeeded in "bagging" key posts in international bodies, whereas senior French civil servants have tended to be relegated to lesser positions, partly through bad personnel management and partly through inadequate training.
In particular, he shows how the British manage to monopolize key positions, especially when important strategic issues are at stake, thus enabling the English-speaking countries to impose their views on the conduct of business.
By contrast, he argues, France's problem lies in French policy with regard to senior international civil servants. In his view, after their initial training, such people are not given adequate long-term training or moved around enough to acquire the range of experience that ambassadors and senior military officers, for example, require in order to cope with the issues of globalisation.

Bibliography

Entreprises, travail - Géopolitique

« Construyendo futuros »

La faculté de sciences politiques de la UNAM (universidad nacional autónoma de México) a mis en place en 2003 un séminaire d'études prospectives. Ce séminaire, qui a intégré le noeud sudaméricain (subnodo) du Millennium Project, a mis en ligne en avril 2004 le premier numéro de sa revue électronique trimestrielle. Une rubrique " études de cas " explore l'avenir des États-Unis, avec quatre scénarios. Plusieurs textes éclairent la situation actuelle de ce pays, et des données factuelles (démographie, ressources énergétiques ...

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Bibliography

Géopolitique - Recherche, sciences, techniques

Aspects of eHealth

L'e-santé, définissable comme l'utilisation des technologies de la société de l'information dans le secteur de la santé, devient l'une des grandes priorités des programmes sanitaires de l'Union européenne : du dossier médical informatisé à la télémédecine, en passant par la géolocalisation (utile notamment pour les aveugles ou les missions de premiers secours), l'évolution du système de soins sera radicale. C'est donc logiquement que l'IPTS (Institute for Prospective Technological Studies) a choisi l'e-santé ...

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Revue

Géopolitique - Recherche, sciences, techniques

Galileo : une ambition européenne

Although at the end of 2003 the member states of the European Union were unable to reach agreement on a draft Constitution which would provide them with a full political framework, there are other areas -often thought to have greater strategic implications- where they are making rapid progress together. Space, in particular, is one such area, as illustrated by the Galileo programme to create a satellite-linked positioning and guidance system.
André Lebeau, a scientific adviser to Futuribles, presents here the ins and outs of the Galileo programme, which has as one of its main aims to develop a competitor for the American Global Positioning System (GPS), the only efficient satellite-linked guidance system currently available. After outlining the story of how the GPS was created and the numerous military, civil and industrial matters associated with it, Lebeau describes how the Europeans have organized this "counter-attack". He highlights the implications of this initiative for greater co-operation in Europe, because of the political and defence issues involved, if for nothing else.

Revue

Géopolitique

Le monde selon Pierre Hassner

In September 2003 Pierre Hassner, Director of Research at CERI (Centre d'études et de recherches internationales, Fondation nationale des sciences politiques), published the second volume of his Violence and Peace (La Violence et la paix), entitled La Terreur et l'empire (Paris: Seuil, 2003). The first volume, From the Atomic Bomb to Ethnic Cleansing (De la bombe atomique au nettoyage ethnique, Paris: Seuil, 2000), covered the collapse of the bipolar world order after the end of the Cold War; much of the second volume is devoted to an analysis of the upheavals since 11 September 2001, as well as to texts and articles written in recent decades.
The eminent French specialist in international relations first examines the changes currently taking place on the world stage and the thinking of the various actors involved (states, international institutions, transnational organizations, etc.). He then goes on to offer a range of extremely interesting theoretical insights based on ideas developed by the most famous observers of international relations, from Kant to Francis Fukuyama, by way of such people as Hegel, Samuel Huntington and Henry Kissinger.
Alain Lamballe has produced a detailed review for Futuribles in which everyone, whether or not they are familiar with the issues of international relations, will find food for thought about what is happening in the world today.

Bibliography

Géopolitique

Quel budget européen à l’horizon 2013 ? Moyens et politiques d’une Union élargie

Le 1er mai 2004, l'Union européenne s'est élargie à 10 nouveaux États membres. Cet élargissement, sans précédent par son ampleur et ses conséquences, constitue pour le processus de construction européenne à la fois une chance et un défi. Il conduit l'Union à s'interroger sur son devenir et sur sa signification même : quel est désormais le projet commun qui anime les États membres et quels sont les moyens qu'ils sont décidés à mettre au service de ...

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Bibliography

Géopolitique

Knitting the Future of the Textiles and Leather Sector : Four Scenarios

Le secteur du textile et de l'habillement en Europe est à la croisée des chemins : la production mondiale s'est déjà largement déplacée vers l'Asie (qui en représente aujourd'hui près de la moitié, contre 27 % en 1980), l'emploi a subi des pertes importantes, mais le secteur représente encore plus de deux millions de personnes et 177 000 entreprises. La fin de l'accord multifibres, le 1er janvier 2005, va constituer un réel défi pour cette industrie ...

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Bibliography

Géopolitique

Mapping the Global Future

Le National Intelligence Council est un think-tank (centre de réflexion) stratégique placé sous l'autorité du directeur de la CIA (Central Intelligence Agency). Il travaille à la fois sur des analyses de questions actuelles et sur des études « au-delà de l'horizon ». La plupart de ses travaux sont classifiés, mais certains documents sont ouverts. Ainsi, le NIC a publié en 2000 un travail de prospective stratégique intitulé Global Trends 2015, après un Global Trends 2010 en 1999. Ce document devait ...

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Chapitre Géopolitique

Ce chapitre est extrait du Rapport Vigie 2016 de Futuribles International, qui propose un panorama structuré des connaissances et des incertitudes des experts que l'association a mobilisés pour explorer les évolutions des 15 à 35 prochaines années sur 11 thématiques.