Géopolitique

Cette page regroupe l'ensemble des publications de Futuribles sur cette thématique (Vigie, revue, bibliographie, études, etc.)

Revue

Géopolitique

A Look Ahead. Review of Alain Minc's Book, Ce monde qui vient

Rémi Perelman discusses Alain Minc's latest book, Ce monde qui vient (The World that's Coming, Paris: Grasset, 2004), which attempts to foresee the changes about to occur in the world. Indeed, since the collapse of communism, the world has been constantly changing. The rise of Asia, the United States as lone superpower, terrorism, the expansion of the European Union - it is hard to see whether stability is possible and what form it might take, or where France might fit in the new world order. Alain Minc gives his opinion on these topics, along with a strong piece of advice to the French: to wake up and at last appreciate how they must adapt to the transformations taking place.

Bibliography

Entreprises, travail - Géopolitique

Prospective, défense et surprise stratégique. Le stratège, l’improbable et l’inattendu

Prospective et défense sont depuis longtemps intimement liées : la première trouve naturellement dans la seconde un terreau fertile à son développement, notamment dans sa capacité à offrir un cadre à la planification militaire dans un environnement forcément complexe et imprévisible. Certaines des approches méthodologiques modernes de la prospective ont d'ailleurs pour origine des réflexions d'ordre militaire (aux États-Unis, par exemple, dès les années 1950, au sein du projet RAND). Au-delà des relations entre prospective et défense, l'auteur ...

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Revue

Géopolitique - Recherche, sciences, techniques - Société, modes de vie

The Digital Divide in Europe. The Economic and Social Issues Related to "Knowledge-based Europe"

The 1990s saw the arrival of a new era for most industrialized countries. The rise of new information and communications technologies meant the start of a period of very rapid changes that completely transformed the daily life of ordinary people. But while these developments brought with them actual progress and hopes of further advances in many fields (e.g. communications, medicine, education), they also had the effect of leaving some people behind. As Patrick Cohendet and Lucy Stojak argue here, the knowledge-based society has indeed marginalized some groups in Europe, and this "digital divide" (here measured mainly in terms of use of the Internet) could well become more serious if nothing is done to improve matters.
The authors begin by defining what is meant by "digital divide", distinguishing technological (basically quantitative) considerations from a socio-economic approach (taking account of qualitative aspects, such as the ability to use technologies, as well as quantitative ones), which is the one they prefer. They then present a typology of users (and non-users) of the Internet, showing the inequalities linked to social class, geography, age, etc.
As the authors emphasize, it is essential to narrow this divide if the European Union in future is to achieve its aim of becoming "the most competitive knowledge-based economy in the world"; this must be done in order to prevent a widening of the gap between the older and newer members of the EU, and more generally between densely populated regions and isolated areas; and it is an important consideration given an ageing population, as older people tend to be less computer-literate. Moreover, it is all too clear that simply having the infrastructures for access to the mass of information available via the Internet is not enough; people must also be able to sort out this information, then understand and assimilate it. In other words, for a truly knowledge-based society to develop there needs to be a genuine effort to educate the public.
Lastly, the article proposes a series of policy measures geared to narrowing the divide, starting by installing the necessary digital infrastructures across the whole of Europe and providing universal broadband access to the Internet, just like access to the telephone in the past.

Bibliography

Entreprises, travail - Géopolitique

Le Désordre du monde. Les grands axes de l’avenir

Au Global Business Policy Council qu'il a fondé au sein d'A.T. Kearney, l'auteur publie annuellement l'« indice de confiance », une étude approfondie des conditions d'investissement dans près de 60 pays. Cette approche « risque pays » inspire ce livre, qui propose un cadre permettant d'identifier les changements extérieurs et quelques scénarios illustrant la façon dont l'environnement économique mondial pourrait évoluer. La première partie de l'ouvrage offre un aperçu de l'avenir au travers du ...

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Chapitre Géopolitique

Ce chapitre est extrait du Rapport Vigie 2016 de Futuribles International, qui propose un panorama structuré des connaissances et des incertitudes des experts que l'association a mobilisés pour explorer les évolutions des 15 à 35 prochaines années sur 11 thématiques.