Cette page regroupe l'ensemble des publications de Futuribles sur cette thématique (Vigie, revue, bibliographie, études, etc.)
Au Global Business Policy Council qu'il a fondé au sein d'A.T. Kearney, l'auteur publie annuellement l'« indice de confiance », une étude approfondie des conditions d'investissement dans près de 60 pays. Cette approche « risque pays » inspire ce livre, qui propose un cadre permettant d'identifier les changements extérieurs et quelques scénarios illustrant la façon dont l'environnement économique mondial pourrait évoluer. La première partie de l'ouvrage offre un aperçu de l'avenir au travers du ...
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Small and medium-sized firms are a key element in the European economy: by the EU definition (0-250 employees), they make up 99.8% of all businesses (more than 93% of them employ fewer than 10 people), i.e. 65.8% of all employment. Yet the public authorities offer them little support, largely because the authorities operate on a very different scale to small firms.
André Lebeau argues that it is possible to change this state of affairs, for instance by learning from the American experience. Despite its ultra-free market stance, the United States has in fact put in place a wide range of public support for small businesses, especially via tenders and contracts to supply federal agencies. These measures have existed for over 50 years (Small Business Act, 1953) and are regularly updated.
While identical measures cannot be applied to small firms in the EU, they could serve to inspire support for this key element in the European economy. André Lebeau suggests how this might be done, proposing the launch of pilot projects, starting with ones in the framework of the European space programme, a sector that he knows well.
On 6 October 2004, the European Commission published its report on Turkey's application to join the European Union, in which it favoured opening negotiations about eventual membership. Since then there has been heated debate, especially in France, about whether or not Turkey should be part of Europe: those in favour of Turkish membership refer to the country's European past and its links with the EU since 1963, as well as its model as a secular democracy in the Muslim world; those opposed argue that it is too far away from the rest of Europe both geographically and in terms of its values (failure to respect human rights, Islam, etc.).
In order to understand the arguments put forward by both sides, it is as well to know more about the country, its history, its political and economic situation, the lifestyles of its people, etc. In this article Jean Raphaël Chaponnière provides an outline of its main features, before discussing the issues underlying Turkey's bid to join the EU and the fears that this raises, rightly or wrongly, for example with regard to international migration or religious issues. In his view, the potential costs of Turkey being allowed to join are roughly the same as if its bid is ultimately rejected - a comparison rarely made by commentators.
In the end, the uncertainty about Turkey's future in Europe that the EU has maintained for decades, and that will continue for several years yet, simply reflects the EU's difficulties in defining the criteria for further enlargement: how far should Europe expand, based on which core values and what ultimate purpose (free trade or political union)?
Membership of the European Union has grown from its original six countries to 12, then 15, then (since May 2004) 25. This expansion could easily continue (perhaps to as many as 40 members) since several other countries are in the running, with a variety of modes of association, as Jean-François Drevet outlines in this article. Among the candidates, Turkey is undoubtedly the one given most media attention, above all in France; but there are also the former Soviet bloc countries such as Croatia, Bulgaria and Rumania. Expansion could well have a domino effect, in the longer term bringing in former Soviet republics such as Georgia and the Ukraine.
In fact, the question of the future borders of the EU, and how acceptable they are to the founding members (above all France), is more topical than ever. Jean-François Drevet discusses the issues involved, the possible advantages, especially in bringing peace to the continent, the obstacles and sensitivities that must be taken into account, both within the EU and outside it (for instance with regard to Russia). He offers us a very full picture of what the EU might become - more than ever a matter of "variable geography". In his view, the prospects of the EU's centre of gravity moving eastwards are, for the time being, very slight even if there were to be major expansion: western Europe remains the clear economic and political driving force within the continent.
The main regret in this process, according to Drevet, is that this policy of expansion has unfortunately had the effect of holding back the impetus to deepen the links. Efforts should be made to remedy this in order to strengthen the EU, for example via the Constitution currently under discussion.
SOMMAIRE Un monde plus sûr ? Tendances lourdes La pérennisation de l'asymétrie des conflits Multiplication des acteurs internationaux Développement de la criminalité transnationale Fusion sécurité intérieure et sécurité extérieure Le Moyen-Orient, pivot géopolitique des conflits mondiaux Incertitudes majeures Nouvelles instabilités régionales Les modes de régulation de l'espace géostratégique Place de la Chine dans l'échiquier régional et mondial Prégnance du terrorisme non conventionnel Microscénarios Ms 1 : Le monde poudrière Ms 2 : Une régulation internationale revisitée Ms 3 : Nouvelle bipolarisation
In November 2004, the American presidential election will be held against an international background dominated by the situation in Iraq, where the American-led coalition is floundering. Virtually everywhere in the world, the majority of public opinion is against the re-election of the current President, George W. Bush. The main complaint is about his administration's "messianic" attitude in attempting to impose its vision of the world and of international relations, which was revealed in the Greater Middle East Initiative announced by the United States at the G8 meeting last June and which is presented as the spearhead of American ambitions for the region.
Jean-Jacques Salomon has examined the origins and underlying agenda of this "great plan": he describes for readers of Futuribles the main characters inspiring and implementing the foreign policy of the Bush team (neo-conservatives, the oil lobby, the religious lobbies, the links with the Likud party in Israel), their ideological convictions, the way they hope to put these convictions into practice (in particular state-building) and the flow of reforms that might then come about. This "American fantasy" of Western-style democracy in a region as diverse as the Middle East is hardly realistic under current conditions.
Nonetheless, as Jean-Jacques Salomon stresses, the need for radical reforms in the Muslim world is increasingly recognized and proclaimed by many Arab commentators. But would Westernisation be too high a price to pay for modernization?
As to the result of the American presidential election, let us not delude ourselves: if the Democrats were to win, this would not necessarily bring about a major change in American foreign policy - although at least it would mean that there would be greater respect for the views of their allies and partners - and the messianic tendencies would not disappear.
Ce chapitre est extrait du Rapport Vigie 2016 de Futuribles International, qui propose un panorama structuré des connaissances et des incertitudes des experts que l'association a mobilisés pour explorer les évolutions des 15 à 35 prochaines années sur 11 thématiques.