Géopolitique

Cette page regroupe l'ensemble des publications de Futuribles sur cette thématique (Vigie, revue, bibliographie, études, etc.)

Bibliography

Géopolitique

Europe 2020 : Perils and Promise

Ce rapport rend compte des débats ayant eu lieu lors d'un séminaire organisé par le GBN à Istanbul en juin 2006 et dont l'objectif était d'explorer le futur de l'Europe à l'horizon 2020. Les participants au séminaire et le public concerné par cette publication du GBN sont essentiellement américains, l'objectif du GBN était donc d'attirer leur attention sur ce « tiers de l'économie mondiale qui contient au moins autant de consommateurs riches que ...

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Bibliography

Géopolitique - Territoires, réseaux

Urban Sprawl, the Ignored Challenge

Trésors culturels de l'Europe, les villes font du continent européen la première destination touristique au monde. L'Europe est profondément urbaine : aujourd'hui, plus de 75 % de la population européenne vit dans des zones urbaines, et ce taux devrait passer à 80 % d'ici 2020, voire 90 % dans sept pays. Or, l'Europe est aujourd'hui confrontée à un défi : l'étalement urbain. La ville tentaculaire prend des proportions inégalées, crée de façon anarchique des zones suburbaines sur des ...

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Revue

Géopolitique

Towards a Multi-polar World? Some Signs of Change from East Asia

Is the era of a lone superpower dominating international relations coming to an end? The rapid economic growth now occurring in Asia has not yet led to a reshaping of the global geopolitical landscape. Nevertheless Rémi Perelman analyses here a "bundle of facts" that suggest that the American military presence could in time find itself ousted from the countries of East Asia. Thus the Shanghai Cooperation Organization seems to be acquiring a new momentum and is becoming a truly regional organization, with the removal of American armed forces as one of its stated aims. But, according to Perelman, the main challenge to American leadership is likely to come from the bilateral agreements being forged by certain Asian nations, above all Russia and China.
While no Asian country currently seems ready to oppose American power head-on, that power is nevertheless clearly being challenged by the economic, political and geo-strategic alliances that are being developed or planned by such influential nations as China, Russia, India, Pakistan and Iran. It remains to be seen whether the countries of Asia can go beyond these short-term agreements and nurture a joint ambition based on shared interests that might result in the creation of an Asian power bloc as a potential counterweight to the superpower status of the United States. The analysis of the specifics of these flexible alliances forged by the nations of Asia, especially during summer 2005, leads Rémi Perelman to reflect on how they might ultimately be structured within a coherent bloc.

Revue

Géopolitique - Société, modes de vie

The Social Divide in Europe. The Social and Political Worldview of the Workforce in Europe

In total contrast to the current view that tends in particular to highlight the decline of the nation-state - squeezed out as the local and the global levels increase in importance - and also likes to argue that values and behaviour are becoming ever more similar, at least within Europe, this article by Luc Rouban shows that the differences are growing between countries and also, within each country, between the executives (both in the public and the private sectors) and the workforce.
Luc Rouban draws on the results of the first phase of the "European Social Survey", carried out in 2002-2003 on a sample of 19,000 employees in both the public and private sectors. He reveals, in addition to the real French malaise, the very different degrees of politicisation of the workforce from country to country, whether this is measured in terms of their participation in elections or their involvement in voluntary organizations or trade unions. He stresses, however, that the younger age-groups are in general less inclined to vote than their elders, although the level rises in line with the level of education.
One of the explanatory variables appears to lie in attitudes to work, which in turn strongly influences the level of involvement in public life. Both are quite closely correlated with the employees' levels of confidence and independence.
The victory of the "No" vote in the French referendum on the European Constitution in May 2005 is then hardly surprising, the author argues. Interest in Europe remains weak, especially in France, where there seems to be a widening gulf between the executive class and the workforce, whatever their age-group.
Luc Rouban concludes that diverging trends outweigh converging ones within Europe, and he highlights the risks arising from a deep gulf between the elite and the majority of employees; this is particularly striking in France. In contrast to all that is said about European unification and the increasing importance of the local dimension, he stresses the rise of nationalist sentiments that are not merely economic but also cultural.

CR table ronde

Géopolitique

Le déclin de l’Occident ?

Inventeur du concept d’« hyperterrorisme » pour expliquer la nouvelle guerre de l’après-11 septembre, François Heisbourg s’interroge dans son dernier ouvrage sur le déclin de l’Occident en tant qu’entité stratégique. Devant l’auditoire, il a, dans un premier temps, brossé les tendances lourdes et les caractéristiques de l’après-guerre froide.

Revue

Géopolitique - Société, modes de vie

The Lisbon agenda at the halfway point. The EU Budget 2007-2013. The Future Policy on European Integration in the Face of the Challenges of Enlargement, Competitiveness and Financial Constraints

European issues have been in the headlines in France in recent months because of the debate about the European Constitution to be voted on in a referendum at the end of May. Rarely has public opinion been so strongly aroused in the discussions leading up to a vote. Yet while this is an encouraging sign that people are prepared to re-engage with matters of public concern, it is a shame that the debates have too often neglected the fundamental questions such as the general direction that the European Union should take with regard to economic and social policies between now and 2010.
In March 2000, when the European Council met in Lisbon, the EU heads of state and government adopted a broad policy programme that set ambitious goals for the Union between now and 2010. This programme, labelled the "Lisbon agenda", aims to make the EU "the most competitive and dynamic knowledge-based economy in the world" by 2010, with a wide range of goals (some with specific figures attached) in areas as diverse as the economy, employment, the environment, social cohesion, etc.
What progress has been made by the halfway point, in 2005? Are the aims likely to be achieved? What are the prospects for the EU reaching its goal?
To find answers to these questions, Futuribles asked various experts on or involved in European matters to assess progress on the Lisbon agenda at the halfway stage. Elvire Fabry and Gilbert Cette outline the agenda and the main objectives that it sets for member states, then Frédéric Allemand makes a comparative evaluation of how well different member states (including France) have performed relative to the agenda's specific targets. He reckons that, so far, the results are mixed. Jean Pisani-Ferry discusses how the Maastricht criteria have been relaxed for member countries that have made a determined effort to undertake structural reforms or to invest in research and development. Lastly, Marjorie Jouen looks at the outlook for the EU budgets for 2007-2013 and shows how they could promote economic and social dynamism in the Union, and thus contribute to achieving the targets set at Lisbon.

Forum

Géopolitique - Recherche, sciences, techniques

Europe vis-à-vis the Intelligence Revolution

Following on from the special coverage of the situation in Europe as it reaches the halfway point for the Lisbon agenda, André-Yves Portnoff stresses here the EU's increasing failure to keep up with the intelligence revolution. While the very ambitious Lisbon targets were certainly praiseworthy - in particular in wanting to make Europe the world's most dynamic knowledge-based society by 2010 - it is clear that the resources have not been forthcoming to achieve those aims.
For several decades now, according to A.-Y. Portnoff, the Europeans have lagged behind in the key sectors driving the economy, above all informatics and telecommunications. Having failed to make a genuine effort to foster innovation, combined with a clearly defined vision of the future based on the values of its citizens and backed by a strong political will, Europe will continue to dig its own economic grave. The crucial steps, in the author's view, would be to reduce the level of technocratic interference both from Brussels and in some member states (including France), to foster synergies and put more emphasis on human resources, in order to allow small and medium-sized firms to be more creative - since the large ones have shown that they have run out of steam.
If Europe fails to take action along these lines and to establish a proper strategy, it is at risk of falling even further behind vis-à-vis the intelligence revolution and of missing out on future innovations in information and communications technologies. Yet these are the sectors that are now the key to the future.

Revue

Géopolitique - Société, modes de vie

The Lisbon agenda at the halfway point. The Reform of the Stability Pact: Neither Rules nor Discretion?

European issues have been in the headlines in France in recent months because of the debate about the European Constitution to be voted on in a referendum at the end of May. Rarely has public opinion been so strongly aroused in the discussions leading up to a vote. Yet while this is an encouraging sign that people are prepared to re-engage with matters of public concern, it is a shame that the debates have too often neglected the fundamental questions such as the general direction that the European Union should take with regard to economic and social policies between now and 2010.
In March 2000, when the European Council met in Lisbon, the EU heads of state and government adopted a broad policy programme that set ambitious goals for the Union between now and 2010. This programme, labelled the "Lisbon agenda", aims to make the EU "the most competitive and dynamic knowledge-based economy in the world" by 2010, with a wide range of goals (some with specific figures attached) in areas as diverse as the economy, employment, the environment, social cohesion, etc.
What progress has been made by the halfway point, in 2005? Are the aims likely to be achieved? What are the prospects for the EU reaching its goal?
To find answers to these questions, Futuribles asked various experts on or involved in European matters to assess progress on the Lisbon agenda at the halfway stage. Elvire Fabry and Gilbert Cette outline the agenda and the main objectives that it sets for member states, then Frédéric Allemand makes a comparative evaluation of how well different member states (including France) have performed relative to the agenda's specific targets. He reckons that, so far, the results are mixed. Jean Pisani-Ferry discusses how the Maastricht criteria have been relaxed for member countries that have made a determined effort to undertake structural reforms or to invest in research and development. Lastly, Marjorie Jouen looks at the outlook for the EU budgets for 2007-2013 and shows how they could promote economic and social dynamism in the Union, and thus contribute to achieving the targets set at Lisbon.

Revue

Géopolitique - Société, modes de vie

The Lisbon agenda at the halfway point. France Measured against the Lisbon Agenda: Could do Better

European issues have been in the headlines in France in recent months because of the debate about the European Constitution to be voted on in a referendum at the end of May. Rarely has public opinion been so strongly aroused in the discussions leading up to a vote. Yet while this is an encouraging sign that people are prepared to re-engage with matters of public concern, it is a shame that the debates have too often neglected the fundamental questions such as the general direction that the European Union should take with regard to economic and social policies between now and 2010.
In March 2000, when the European Council met in Lisbon, the EU heads of state and government adopted a broad policy programme that set ambitious goals for the Union between now and 2010. This programme, labelled the "Lisbon agenda", aims to make the EU "the most competitive and dynamic knowledge-based economy in the world" by 2010, with a wide range of goals (some with specific figures attached) in areas as diverse as the economy, employment, the environment, social cohesion, etc.
What progress has been made by the halfway point, in 2005? Are the aims likely to be achieved? What are the prospects for the EU reaching its goal?
To find answers to these questions, Futuribles asked various experts on or involved in European matters to assess progress on the Lisbon agenda at the halfway stage. Elvire Fabry and Gilbert Cette outline the agenda and the main objectives that it sets for member states, then Frédéric Allemand makes a comparative evaluation of how well different member states (including France) have performed relative to the agenda's specific targets. He reckons that, so far, the results are mixed. Jean Pisani-Ferry discusses how the Maastricht criteria have been relaxed for member countries that have made a determined effort to undertake structural reforms or to invest in research and development. Lastly, Marjorie Jouen looks at the outlook for the EU budgets for 2007-2013 and shows how they could promote economic and social dynamism in the Union, and thus contribute to achieving the targets set at Lisbon.

Revue

Géopolitique - Population

The Family - a Public Matter. Extracts from a Report

Following on from the dossier in this issue evaluating what has been achieved under the Lisbon agenda, Michel Godet and Évelyne Sullerot, who have a written a forthcoming report on the family, stress the urgent need that exists in Europe to invest in its human capital. They point out that Europe is at last realizing that its population is ageing, especially compared with the United States, and that this has consequences in the medium and long term for its economic growth (the economically active population of the 25 member states of the EU might decline by more than 20 million between 2010 and 2030). Unless the birthrate shoots up and immigration rises substantially, there is no way out.
Yet many surveys show that the fall in fertility rates in Europe is not inevitable - women still want to have children - but it is the result of public policies that do too little to help matters. France is admittedly an exception as regards fertility rates, but this does not mean that the country is unaffected by these problems. It is against this background that the French prime minister asked the Conseil d'Analyses Économiques to examine the economic issues arising from the policy on families and its relationship with other social policies.
A working group was set up officially on 1 July 2004 by Christian de Boissieu, the head of the CAE, with Évelyne Sullerot and Michel Godet as co-ordinators. This article provides some extracts from the report, which encourages the public authorities to help combat poverty in families with children and achieve a better balance between the demands of work and family.

Chapitre Géopolitique

Ce chapitre est extrait du Rapport Vigie 2016 de Futuribles International, qui propose un panorama structuré des connaissances et des incertitudes des experts que l'association a mobilisés pour explorer les évolutions des 15 à 35 prochaines années sur 11 thématiques.