Cette page regroupe l'ensemble des publications de Futuribles sur cette thématique (Vigie, revue, bibliographie, études, etc.)
La thèse du « choc des civilisations » de Samuel Huntington continue, 15 ans après sa formulation, à hanter les esprits. Nombreux en sont les détracteurs qui pourtant s’évertuent à employer eux aussi le terme de civilisation, concept pourtant flou et délicat à manier. Un véritable risque géopolitique pèse sur les conflits futurs dans le champ des facteurs socioculturels, des valeurs et des croyances. La question des identités et des métissages culturels devient un enjeu clef pour comprendre les lignes de ...
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Le CEDEFOP présente ses premières prévisions concernant les besoins en compétences à l'horizon de 2015 dans 25 États membres de l'Union européenne (la Bulgarie et la Roumanie n'ont pas été prises en compte), ainsi que la Norvège et la Suisse. L'étude arrive à la conclusion que la demande en compétences et en qualifications augmentera dans la plupart des domaines professionnels, y compris dans les emplois peu qualifiés, en raison du développement croissant du secteur des services ...
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Jean-François Drevet devotes this month's European column to the use of referenda by member states for ratifying treaties or treaty changes decided by the European Union. As he shows, there are a number of stumbling blocks on the referendum route in Europe: the subjects to be voted on may be worded in too complex a fashion; the piecemeal construction of Europe involves frequent treaty changes; the unanimity rule poses problems; and the topics put to a referendum may be hi-jacked by national political issues. Since Ireland is the only country required by its constitution to submit such matters to a referendum, it is not clear that this is the most appropriate way, in the current context, to achieve the ratification of European treaties in the other member states.
Following on from the special issue of Futuribles devoted to "Dialogue or Clashes of Culture" published last July, we reprint here extracts from the third number of the journal Prospective, entitled "Relations between the West and the rest of the world". In it, the authors (Gaston Berger, Jean Darcet and Marcel Demonque) analyse the difficulties raised by the aid offered (sometimes imposed) by the West to so-called "underdeveloped countries" (for example, financial or technical assistance), and the actual or inherent risks to the populations of these countries who, viewing this aid as a sign of criticism of their cultures, began to oppose the West. The authors stress the importance of human values and beliefs in relations between civilizations, and conclude by discussing the distinction between civilizations and cultures: the former defined as relating to universal values, the latter to more personal - and therefore inevitably more varied - values.
On 12 September 2007, the European Commission launched a broad consultation on the future of the European Union's finances, inviting all parties concerned at the local, regional, national and European levels to take part in the debate on the Union's budget, with a view to a reform project that should take shape in 2008-2009.
Jean-François Drevet therefore devotes his December column to the European budget, reminding us of the current rules and the practices in force in a context that is still, in his view, overly characterized by national preoccupations. He presents a number of possible developmental paths, stressing the point that it is important to see this question in terms of added value from joint action, not of a "fair return" on contributions.
From the 1979 Islamic Revolution in Iran to the recent collapse of the Saddam Hussein regime in Iraq, the "Shiite question" has regularly been mentioned but seldom analysed in depth, even though it plays an essential role in the regional equilibrium and, increasingly, the gap is widening between this minority strand within Islam (fewer than 15% of Muslims) and the majority denomination (the Sunni). François Zabbal provides a portrait of Shiism here: the identity, history and political involvements of Shiites (from Iran to the Lebanese Hezbollah, not forgetting Palestine), their presence in the Middle East etc. He touches also on the "Shiite revival" (particularly in the area of philosophy) and discusses the possibility of a Shiite axis developing around Iran that could lead to a break up of the Middle East along the lines of recent Iraqi experience, one of the consequences of which is to have put off the prospect of any kind of Arab or Islamic unity for many years.
En Chine et en Inde, la combinaison d’une croissance économique soutenue, de capacités militaires en expansion et de populations nombreuses constitueront le socle d’une croissance attendue en forte accélération, tant sur le plan économique que sur le plan politique. La Chine et l’Inde ont amorcé « un sprint soudain dans la course à la puissance » et ont à ce jour à peine commencé leur bouleversement de l’ordre international. Chindia, la Chine et l’Inde agrégées du fait ...
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Un sondage récent du centre Youri Lévada montre que les Russes sont de moins en moins nombreux à vouloir défendre " une démocratie sur le modèle occidental ". Le nombre de nostalgiques du régime communiste reste stable.
Le dernier document de stratégie de la Commission européenne sur les pays candidats à l'entrée dans l'Union manifeste des perspectives très incertaines d'élargissement à court et moyen termes.
A new intergovernmental meeting was held at the end of July 2007 in order to try to overcome the institutional impasse resulting from the rejection of the European Constitution by France and the Netherlands in 2005. The EU's member states discussed the drafting of a "constitutional mini-treaty" to be submitted to the meeting of the European Council in October 2007. In this month's op-ed piece on the EU, written before the Council meeting, Jean-François Drevet examines one of the matters that must be sorted out: how powers should be divided between the EU and the member states, focussing particularly on France and Germany.
Jean Hourcade, membre d'Asie 21, le groupe de réflexion de Futuribles sur les futurs possibles de l'Asie, nous présente dans ce texte des scénarios d'évolution de la situation politique en Birmanie, pays dans lequel il a vécu et dont il analyse les évolutions depuis des années.
Ever since the intervention in Iraq by the coalition led by the United States, begun in 2003 and continuing today, Iraq has been the scene of terrible conflict. The fighting between coalition forces and the army of Saddam Hussein has been followed by civil war, the rivalries being in some cases religious (Sunni versus Shia), in others ethnic (Kurd versus Arab), with in addition violence of various kinds against the occupying forces. In August 2007, the number of civilian Iraqis killed since the start of the intervention is estimated as somewhere between 70,000 and 76,000 (according to Iraq Body Count).
Faced with this situation, increasing numbers of Iraqis are fleeing their country and seeking refuge in neighbouring states. François de Jouvenel examines where matters now stand with regard to the population movements and the problems they raise - not just humanitarian but also social and political - in the receiving countries (Syria and Jordan in particular), and highlights the geopolitical risks that result from them for the region as a whole.
This month Jean-François Drevet's op-ed piece focuses on the relations between the European Union and its neighbour Libya, which is seeking to normalize its international relations, but also with the other Mediterranean countries that are the EU's partners in the context of the Barcelona agreements. He argues that there are many obstacles in the way of establishing concrete policies to promote co-operation between the EU and these nations. In addition to the criteria related to encouraging democracy and respect for human rights, the relations that these countries have with each other reflect the difficulties involved in improving regional co-operation. The best way forward is probably to be pragmatic, for example by encouraging the countries south and east of the Mediterranean to develop collaborative action in some sectors (such as the environment) in order to test how far they are prepared to co-operate at the supranational level.
Dans les efforts qu'elle a déployés lors du sommet de juin 2007 pour sortir de l'impasse créée par les réponses négatives aux référendums du printemps 2005, la présidence allemande a obtenu un accord sur un calendrier d'adoption du " traité simplifié ", appelé à se substituer au projet de traité constitutionnel.
In this article, as the French government sets out to undertake a major reform of the country's higher education system, Barbara Kehm highlights current trends in Europe in this field.
The author starts by describing the "Bologna process", which launched a new system of qualifications and a series of major reforms of higher education programmes in more than 40 European countries. She then shows how this process (started in 1999) has been combined with the Lisbon strategy (2000) with the aim of establishing by 2010 a Europe-wide system of higher education linked to plans for research and innovation.
Barbara Kehm also examines how the role of the state in the management of higher education is changing in Europe. She discusses the new forms of governance that have developed against the background of the system's problems of both funding and legitimacy, resulting in growing moves towards greater autonomy for individual institutions and more vocationally oriented courses.
Finally, Barbara Kehm looks at three key issues for European higher education: more diverse sources of funding (in order above all to cope with increased numbers of students), research and improvements in quality (via better evaluation and accreditation), and internationalization (involving both co-operation and competition). She concludes her analysis by setting out the main trends in this field for the next 10 years.
Ce chapitre est extrait du Rapport Vigie 2016 de Futuribles International, qui propose un panorama structuré des connaissances et des incertitudes des experts que l'association a mobilisés pour explorer les évolutions des 15 à 35 prochaines années sur 11 thématiques.