Cette page regroupe l'ensemble des publications de Futuribles sur cette thématique (Vigie, revue, bibliographie, études, etc.)



The Future of North America 2025 : Outlook and Recommendations

Si les États-Unis, le Canada et le Mexique sont souvent regroupés sous la notion géographique, et parfois économique, d?« Amérique du Nord », leur coopération porte rarement sur la définition de problématiques et d?enjeux communs à moyen-long terme. C?est pourquoi cet ouvrage (le résultat de plusieurs années de travaux communs d?institutions et d?experts des trois pays concernés) propose véritablement d?envisager ce que pourrait être l?avenir commun de ces trois pays à l?horizon 2025, tout ...

(635 more words)


Géopolitique - Ressources naturelles, énergie, environnement

Greening Economic Growth. Towards a Global Strategy for Europe

Après avoir étudié, en 2007, les rapports des Européens avec la mondialisation, Fondapol s?intéresse ici à la capacité de l?Union européenne (UE) à orienter la mondialisation vers le respect de l?environnement et la lutte contre le réchauffement climatique. Cette étude examine également les mesures mises en place par les autres grandes puissances mondiales, à savoir les États-Unis, la Chine et l?Inde, qui sont à la fois les principaux partenaires commerciaux de l?UE et les plus ...

(607 more words)


Économie, emploi - Géopolitique

Future Skill Needs in Europe : Medium-term Forecast

Le CEDEFOP présente ses premières prévisions concernant les besoins en compétences à l'horizon de 2015 dans 25 États membres de l'Union européenne (la Bulgarie et la Roumanie n'ont pas été prises en compte), ainsi que la Norvège et la Suisse. L'étude arrive à la conclusion que la demande en compétences et en qualifications augmentera dans la plupart des domaines professionnels, y compris dans les emplois peu qualifiés, en raison du développement croissant du secteur des services ...

(458 more words)


Économie, emploi - Géopolitique - Société, modes de vie

Europeans and Globalization

The phenomenon of globalization (of trade, securities etc.) is not a recent one, but the use of the actual term has increased enormously over the last 15 years, with varying connotations depending on the country and the commentator. What is the attitude to globalization in Europe, a distinctive kind of region, since it is integrated economically and, at least in part, politically?
Basing their arguments on the findings of a recent survey, Elvire Fabry and Frédéric Allemand present the general perception Europeans have of globalization, depending on country of origin and also on age. They show that Europeans share quite a similar view of the phenomenon, regarding it as synonymous with increased trading relations between member states and greater mobility within the Union. They do not find any major distinctions in attitudes to globalization between the different age groups, though young people turn out to be a little more optimistic than their elders. They also analyse its place in public debate (the Left/Right divide, the influence of civil society), mentioning the particular positions of France and Germany, countries with a distinctly greater awareness of the subject. Lastly, they discuss a feature that is dominant in Europe where globalization is concerned: the call for regulation against a background of the strengthening of regional solidarities but not of protectionism.


Géopolitique - Population - Société, modes de vie

European Youth's Values and Lifestyles. An Analysis of a Survey conducted in 17 Countries

Having surveyed trends in the values of Scandinavian youth for more than 10 years, Kairos Future has extended its field of study to the youth of 17 - mostly European - countries. In this article, the authors present the broad conclusions of that study of European youth within the contemporary international context. They stress the fact that the characteristics observed may not perhaps be peculiar to this period of life (the "life-cycle" effect), but could herald longer-term developments in ways of life, consumption patterns or modes of working.
After reviewing general tendencies in the development of values in Europe, the authors present the current dominant trends in young Europeans' life choices. These include greater significance accorded to personal fulfilment, and the increased importance of status, money and celebrity. Specifying the features peculiar to each nation, the authors go on to develop the following themes: the development of the work-life balance, the interest in study and entrepreneurship, the desire to start a family, young people's optimism about their futures, increasing individualism against a background of international concerns (with respect, for example, to the environment), etc.
Lastly, they analyse elements that indicate a common identity among young people at the European, Asian and world levels. Such elements definitely exist, but doubtless not yet to a sufficient degree to speak of the existence of a European, Asian or global youth identity.

Tribune européenne


The Budget of the Union in Question

On 12 September 2007, the European Commission launched a broad consultation on the future of the European Union's finances, inviting all parties concerned at the local, regional, national and European levels to take part in the debate on the Union's budget, with a view to a reform project that should take shape in 2008-2009.
Jean-François Drevet therefore devotes his December column to the European budget, reminding us of the current rules and the practices in force in a context that is still, in his view, overly characterized by national preoccupations. He presents a number of possible developmental paths, stressing the point that it is important to see this question in terms of added value from joint action, not of a "fair return" on contributions.



The Shiite Awakening. The New Face of Civil War

From the 1979 Islamic Revolution in Iran to the recent collapse of the Saddam Hussein regime in Iraq, the "Shiite question" has regularly been mentioned but seldom analysed in depth, even though it plays an essential role in the regional equilibrium and, increasingly, the gap is widening between this minority strand within Islam (fewer than 15% of Muslims) and the majority denomination (the Sunni). François Zabbal provides a portrait of Shiism here: the identity, history and political involvements of Shiites (from Iran to the Lebanese Hezbollah, not forgetting Palestine), their presence in the Middle East etc. He touches also on the "Shiite revival" (particularly in the area of philosophy) and discusses the possibility of a Shiite axis developing around Iran that could lead to a break up of the Middle East along the lines of recent Iraqi experience, one of the consequences of which is to have put off the prospect of any kind of Arab or Islamic unity for many years.

Futurs d'antan

Entreprises, travail - Géopolitique - Société, modes de vie

The West and the World (1959) - Futures of Yesteryear

Following on from the special issue of Futuribles devoted to "Dialogue or Clashes of Culture" published last July, we reprint here extracts from the third number of the journal Prospective, entitled "Relations between the West and the rest of the world". In it, the authors (Gaston Berger, Jean Darcet and Marcel Demonque) analyse the difficulties raised by the aid offered (sometimes imposed) by the West to so-called "underdeveloped countries" (for example, financial or technical assistance), and the actual or inherent risks to the populations of these countries who, viewing this aid as a sign of criticism of their cultures, began to oppose the West. The authors stress the importance of human values and beliefs in relations between civilizations, and conclude by discussing the distinction between civilizations and cultures: the former defined as relating to universal values, the latter to more personal - and therefore inevitably more varied - values.

Chapitre de rapport annuel vigie

Économie, emploi - Géopolitique

Chapitre 4 du rapport Vigie 2007 : La Chine et l’Inde : le sprint des géants

En Chine et en Inde, la combinaison d’une croissance économique soutenue, de capacités militaires en expansion et de populations nombreuses constitueront le socle d’une croissance attendue en forte accélération, tant sur le plan économique que sur le plan politique. La Chine et l’Inde ont amorcé « un sprint soudain dans la course à la puissance » et ont à ce jour à peine commencé leur bouleversement de l’ordre international. Chindia, la Chine et l’Inde agrégées du fait ...

(215 more words)

Note de veille


Les Russes de moins en moins démocrates ?

Un sondage récent du centre Youri Lévada montre que les Russes sont de moins en moins nombreux à vouloir défendre " une démocratie sur le modèle occidental ". Le nombre de nostalgiques du régime communiste reste stable.

Note de veille


Union européenne : l’élargissement en panne ?

Le dernier document de stratégie de la Commission européenne sur les pays candidats à l'entrée dans l'Union manifeste des perspectives très incertaines d'élargissement à court et moyen termes.

Chapitre Géopolitique

Ce chapitre est extrait du Rapport Vigie 2016 de Futuribles International, qui propose un panorama structuré des connaissances et des incertitudes des experts que l'association a mobilisés pour explorer les évolutions des 15 à 35 prochaines années sur 11 thématiques.