Géopolitique

Cette page regroupe l'ensemble des publications de Futuribles sur cette thématique (Vigie, revue, bibliographie, études, etc.)

Revue

Géopolitique - Société, modes de vie

No to the Slogan "Islam versus the West!" An Essay in Geostrategy: Reply to the Theory of "the Clash of Civilizations"

Bruno Étienne argues cogently in this article that to think in terms of a clash of civilizations - Islam versus the West - is to make a serious error of judgement by ignoring the many non-religious factors that affect the relations between the Middle East and the West. In order to deal with this misunderstanding, he starts by setting out a clear definition of what he means by religion. He goes on to point out that politics and religion are often in competition, including in the Muslim world, and usually politics has the final say as to which strategy is adopted in international relations.
Bruno Étienne then ponders what kind of international system will emerge now that there is no longer a two-way split: will there be one Great Power or many? He notes that we are now faced with a "huge ideological shambles" and it would be too simplistic to describe it merely in religious terms when in fact the issues are clearly geostrategic: Europe and the United States have always wanted to (re)draw the map of the Middle East to suit their own interests. He also raises the current regional issues (e.g. the problem of Israel and Palestine, the Kurdish question, Iraq, water resources and oil reserves) and their possible impact on relations between the West and the Middle East.
Finally, Bruno Étienne focuses on the three countries competing for leadership in the Middle East: Turkey, Saudi Arabia and Iran, recalling along the way that "it is ignorance of the Other [that feeds] most of the fantasies, the prejudices and therefore the fears" .

Revue

Géopolitique

The European Union and Turkish Resistance. Does Turkey Want to Meet the Political Conditions for Joining the EU?

Following its expansion to 27 members with the admission of Bulgaria and Rumania in January 2007, the European Union remains open to absorbing further new members, in particular Turkey - even though membership negotiations were suspended in 2006 because of the Cyprus problem. As is well known, the possibility of Turkey joining the EU has generated very mixed reactions from public opinion in some member states (including France), but what do the Turks feel?
Jean-François Drevet discusses the sources of the problems: domestic matters (democracy, rule of law, etc.) and foreign affairs issues (tensions with Greece, the Cyprus question, the Kurdish problem...). He stresses in particular that the Turkish government is perhaps not all that keen to join the EU, to judge from its resistance and reluctance to meet the criteria set by the existing member states. In contrast with previous negotiations (Mediterranean countries, Central and Eastern Europe), the Europeans must now deal with a country whose government, along with some of its people, is in no hurry to adapt to the European model. Perhaps it might be wise, the author argues, to allow Turkey to advance at its own pace before examining its possible suitability for entry.

Revue

Géopolitique - Ressources naturelles, énergie, environnement

The Ambiguities of Competition. Électricité de France and the Privatization of Electricity

The European Union has decided that electricity supply should be opened up to greater competition; in France the last phase will be reached in July 2007. However competition, which is supposed to bring about lower prices and improvements in the quality of service, threatens in fact to deliver none of these benefits, according to the honorary president of Électricité de France (EDF).
One reason for this is that the EDF's prices were already well below those in the rest of Europe because the firm has always been strictly managed; this factor has been much more important than the advantages which some consider that the EDF derives from its nuclear power plants. Another reason is that there are inevitable limits to competition because of the "natural monopolies" related to the distribution networks.
Lastly, Marcel Boiteux, arguing from the EDF's experience, warns us against the Brussels authorities' rather too blind faith in market forces. He demonstrates here, adducing specific examples, how naive it is to imagine that the best results are spontaneously achieved by the market alone. Along the way, he offers justifications for France's decision to rely on nuclear power and the investments made to that end; he points out that, while the EDF did indeed enjoy some state support, the state benefited much more.

Tribune européenne

Géopolitique

The Slovak Veto

Why have a European Op-Ed section in Futuribles?
The unforeseen events that occurred in Europe starting in 1989 have brought about great upheavals on the continent as the static situation after 1945 suddenly started to change at unprecedented speed. The rapid spread of the market economy, and to a lesser extent of democracy, in Eastern Europe radically altered diplomatic relations and generated a strong demand for international co-operation and for some degree of shared sovereignty.
This situation has brought with it new challenges for foresight studies. Whereas in the 1970s 1980s there was plenty of time to analyse what might happen in Europe, it is now necessary to keep ahead of the constantly changing scene in order to maintain both its role in exploring possibilities and the quality of its work.
These transformations are closely linked to the moves towards European unification: expansion of the European Union, development of as yet ill-defined policies towards its neighbours, and the first hesitant steps towards a common policy on security and defence.
Indeed, the role of EU institutions is often not properly appreciated since information about them tends to be limited, biased or incomprehensible. As recent debates have shown, this can sometimes result in serious failures to analyse situations correctly, which leads to erroneous assessments of the future of Europe and of the world in general.
For all these reasons, we have decided to include a new section in Futuribles which will examine aspects of current affairs in Europe that have a future-oriented dimension and could therefore be valuable for analyses of what is happening in France or other European nations. The intention is not to take the place of existing publications, nor even to comment on all the varied and complex events occurring in Europe, but rather to highlight some things that could help to promote a better understanding of possible future developments. The editor of the section will be Jean-François Drevet, a former civil servant with the European Commission; his views are obviously freely expressed and are his alone. The first article of this section deals with the Slovak opposition to a common position of the EU foreign and security policy on the independence of Kosovo.

Revue

Géopolitique

The State of Europe's Environment

The deterioration of the world's environment, and in particular the ever greater likelihood of global warming, is the subject of an increasing number of studies. But what is known about the environmental situation in Europe? Despite the political impasse that the European Union is currently in, what are the individual member states doing about the environment?
The EU's policy on the environment dates back to 1973, and is remarkable as one of the few areas where the member states appear to accept restrictive agreements unanimously and try afterwards to respect them. Furthermore, the activities of the European Environment Agency seem not to attract the criticisms levelled at most other EU institutions.
As Thierry Lavoux explains in this article, the EU's measures have made it possible to stop using both lead in petroleum products and chlorofluorocarbons. The latest challenge for the member states is to reduce their emissions of greenhouse gases (especially by meeting the Kyoto criteria) at the same time that emissions generated by the transport and construction sectors are growing steadily.
In addition, he stresses, the member states need to be concerned by threats to their ecosystems from urban sprawl, massive use of pesticides and irrigation, and overfishing...
Lastly, says Thierry Lavoux, the EU members must quickly apply their minds to ways of making their agriculture more sustainable and limiting their production of toxic chemicals.

Analyse prospective

Géopolitique

L’augmentation du budget de la défense chinoise

Le 4 mars 2007, la Chine a annoncé pour 2007 un budget militaire de 45 milliards de dollars, une augmentation de 17,8 % par rapport à 2006. La croissance spectaculaire du budget de la défense se poursuit depuis 10 ans et permet le renforcement quantitatif et qualitatif des forces armées chinoises. L'objectif affiché par les autorités d'un " développement pacifique " n'interdit pas de poser la question des intentions chinoises dans une situation internationale marquée par l'écrasante suprématie ...

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CR table ronde

Économie, emploi - Géopolitique - Institutions

Une brève histoire de l’avenir

Le succès de l’ouvrage a étonné l’auteur. En effet, il s’agit avant tout d’une courte tentative de synthèse de beaucoup de ses travaux antérieurs, une sorte de rapport d’étape. La plupart des idées et analyses qui le composent ont été plus ou moins développées dans de précédents ouvrages de Jacques Attali (Histoires du temps ; Dictionnaire du XXIè siècle. Paris : Fayard, respectivement 1982 et 1998, etc.). Trois principes le guident lorsqu’il s’interroge sur l ...

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Bibliography

Géopolitique - Société, modes de vie

Quelles langues parleront les Européens en 2025 ?

L'équipe du Laboratoire européen d'anticipation politique (LEAP) conduit depuis plus d'une décennie une analyse des tendances lourdes affectant la sphère linguistique dans l'Union européenne (UE). Ces anticipations sont porteuses de nombreuses conséquences quant à l'évolution politique de l'UE, puisque les langues ne sont pas des instruments neutres de communication mais bien les véhicules de visions du monde et de la société. Et à travers ces tendances d'avenir, on peut mieux cerner de plus ...

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Note de veille

Géopolitique

Chindia (1) : le rapprochement des géants asiatiques

Dans un article intitulé " Different Paths of Asian Giants ", publié par le Straits Times de Singapour, trois universitaires, Ramkishen S. Rajan (George Mason University), David A. Kelly (National University of Singapore) et Gillian H. L. Goh (National University of Singapore) reviennent sur les voies de la croissance telles qu'elles ont été empruntées par l'Inde et la Chine. Les chemins ont été différents mais se rejoignent aujourd'hui et les deux pays se mettent à l'école l'un ...

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Note de veille

Géopolitique - Ressources naturelles, énergie, environnement

Asie, les eaux de la discorde

Dans un rapport intitulé Asia's coming Water Wars, publié par The Power and Interest News Report, Chietigj Bajpaee, chercheur associé au Center for Strategic and International Studies de Washington D.C. attire l'attention sur le rôle de l'eau comme denrée stratégique et facteur croissant de conflictualité en Asie : au XXIe siècle, l'Asie pourrait émerger comme le nouveau foyer des conflits liés à l'eau

Revue

Entreprises, travail - Géopolitique - Recherche, sciences, techniques

Research and Innovation in Europe: Slow Progress Towards the Aims of the Lisbon Summit

At the European Union summit in Lisbon in 2000, the member states committed themselves to making Europe "the most competitive and dynamic economy" in the world. Seven years later, there seems little chance of achieving this objective for research by 2010. By international standards, the EU is not doing well, and is still lagging behind countries like the USA and Japan, with regard to both the amount of investment in research and the results obtained; this is even more true of innovation.
One of the reasons for this poor showing is the lack of co-ordination of research at national, intergovernmental and EU levels, argues Pierre Papon. In order to improve this situation, it is urgent for member countries to increase their spending on research and for them to do more to develop Europe-wide research programmes by combining their efforts.
The priority given to research in Europe obviously influences the scale of scientific discoveries Europe makes and hence to some extent the EU's opportunities for innovation, says Pierre Papon, but also the image that its own residents and other nations have of the EU.

Bibliography

Économie, emploi - Géopolitique

Changement climatique et emploi. Impact sur l’emploi du changement climatique et des mesures de réduction des émissions de CO2 dans l’Union européenne à 25 à l’horizon 2030

Si les effets du réchauffement climatique sur l'économie ont déjà fait l'objet de travaux, les impacts sur l'emploi n'avaient pas encore été étudiés de manière systématique. Cette étude a pour ambition de contribuer à une telle réflexion, en fournissant une analyse des coûts et bénéfices potentiels pour l'emploi des politiques de lutte contre le changement climatique et du changement climatique en Europe. Elle a été réalisée durant 18 mois par un consortium de centres de ...

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Bibliography

Géopolitique - Recherche, sciences, techniques

Driving Factors and Challenges for the EU Industry and the Role of R&D and Innovation

Cette étude de l'ETEPS-NET, réseau qui rassemble des organismes nationaux de conseil en politique « techno-économique », sert de préalable à une recherche de plus grande ampleur sur l'avenir à long terme de l'industrie européenne. Elle répond à deux objectifs : - Identifier et analyser les principaux facteurs socio-économiques et institutionnels susceptibles d'affecter les marchés mondiaux à l'horizon 2020 ; - Faire le lien entre ces facteurs et l'évolution probable de l'industrie européenne ainsi que les défis auxquels l ...

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Bibliography

Géopolitique - Population - Territoires, réseaux

Scenarios on the Territorial Future of Europe. Projet ESPON 3.2

Le programme de recherche ESPON a publié en mai 2007 trois « scénarios pour le devenir du territoire européen » à l'horizon 2030 découlant des évolutions possibles des politiques de l'Europe à 27. Dans le scénario tendanciel (dans lequel les politiques européennes actuelles sont maintenues), un nombre croissant de régions européennes sont affectées par les conséquences négatives de la mondialisation, et seules certaines régions favorisées bénéficient de retombées positives. Ceci entraîne une redistribution de la population en Europe, qui se ...

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Bibliography

Géopolitique - Territoires, réseaux

The Elephant and the Dragon. The Rise of India and China and What It Means for All of Us

« Cet ouvrage s’efforce d’aider les lecteurs à comprendre comment notre monde est transformé par l’essor de l’Inde et de la Chine — des pays dont l’impact potentiel sur les prochaines décennies est à la fois redouté et sous-estimé. » L’auteur, Robyn Meredith, est une journaliste américaine, correspondante de Forbes, spécialiste de l’Inde (l’éléphant) et de la Chine (le dragon). La croissance des deux géants asiatiques a d’ores et déjà permis à des millions ...

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Bibliography

Géopolitique - Ressources naturelles, énergie, environnement

Perspectives énergétiques de la France à l’horizon 2020-2050.

La commission Énergie du Centre d'analyse stratégique, présidée par Jean Syrota a remis, début avril 2007, au Premier ministre français un rapport d'orientation présentant le diagnostic, les perspectives à moyen terme (horizon 2020) et un certain nombre de recommandations pour la politique française de l'énergie. Face aux défis mondiaux de lutte contre le changement climatique, le rapport propose d'engager des actions immédiates utilisant tous les leviers disponibles pour réduire substantiellement les émissions de gaz à effet ...

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Chapitre Géopolitique

Ce chapitre est extrait du Rapport Vigie 2016 de Futuribles International, qui propose un panorama structuré des connaissances et des incertitudes des experts que l'association a mobilisés pour explorer les évolutions des 15 à 35 prochaines années sur 11 thématiques.