Géopolitique

Cette page regroupe l'ensemble des publications de Futuribles sur cette thématique (Vigie, revue, bibliographie, études, etc.)

Bibliography

Géopolitique

Le Choc des identités ? Cultures, civilisations et conflits de demain / The Clash of Identities ? Cultures, Civilizations and Tomorrow’s Conflicts

La thèse du « choc des civilisations » de Samuel Huntington continue, 15 ans après sa formulation, à hanter les esprits. Nombreux en sont les détracteurs qui pourtant s’évertuent à employer eux aussi le terme de civilisation, concept pourtant flou et délicat à manier. Un véritable risque géopolitique pèse sur les conflits futurs dans le champ des facteurs socioculturels, des valeurs et des croyances. La question des identités et des métissages culturels devient un enjeu clef pour comprendre les lignes de ...

(59 more words)

Bibliography

Économie, emploi - Géopolitique

Future Skill Needs in Europe : Medium-term Forecast

Le CEDEFOP présente ses premières prévisions concernant les besoins en compétences à l'horizon de 2015 dans 25 États membres de l'Union européenne (la Bulgarie et la Roumanie n'ont pas été prises en compte), ainsi que la Norvège et la Suisse. L'étude arrive à la conclusion que la demande en compétences et en qualifications augmentera dans la plupart des domaines professionnels, y compris dans les emplois peu qualifiés, en raison du développement croissant du secteur des services ...

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Bibliography

Géopolitique - Ressources naturelles, énergie, environnement

Low Carbon, High Growth : Latin American Responses to Climate Change

Le titre de ce rapport de la Banque mondiale est en partie trompeur, puisqu'il constitue moins une recension de « bonnes pratiques » latino-américaines qu'une étude des dangers auxquels le changement climatique expose l'Amérique latine et, partant, une liste de recommandations pour y faire face. L'Amérique latine et les Caraïbes ne seront pas épargnés par le changement climatique, qui risque en particulier de menacer la richesse de la biodiversité et la productivité agricole. La nature et l'ampleur ...

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Forum

Géopolitique

The Shiite Awakening. The New Face of Civil War

From the 1979 Islamic Revolution in Iran to the recent collapse of the Saddam Hussein regime in Iraq, the "Shiite question" has regularly been mentioned but seldom analysed in depth, even though it plays an essential role in the regional equilibrium and, increasingly, the gap is widening between this minority strand within Islam (fewer than 15% of Muslims) and the majority denomination (the Sunni). François Zabbal provides a portrait of Shiism here: the identity, history and political involvements of Shiites (from Iran to the Lebanese Hezbollah, not forgetting Palestine), their presence in the Middle East etc. He touches also on the "Shiite revival" (particularly in the area of philosophy) and discusses the possibility of a Shiite axis developing around Iran that could lead to a break up of the Middle East along the lines of recent Iraqi experience, one of the consequences of which is to have put off the prospect of any kind of Arab or Islamic unity for many years.

Tribune européenne

Géopolitique

The Budget of the Union in Question

On 12 September 2007, the European Commission launched a broad consultation on the future of the European Union's finances, inviting all parties concerned at the local, regional, national and European levels to take part in the debate on the Union's budget, with a view to a reform project that should take shape in 2008-2009.
Jean-François Drevet therefore devotes his December column to the European budget, reminding us of the current rules and the practices in force in a context that is still, in his view, overly characterized by national preoccupations. He presents a number of possible developmental paths, stressing the point that it is important to see this question in terms of added value from joint action, not of a "fair return" on contributions.

Futurs d'antan

Entreprises, travail - Géopolitique - Société, modes de vie

The West and the World (1959) - Futures of Yesteryear

Following on from the special issue of Futuribles devoted to "Dialogue or Clashes of Culture" published last July, we reprint here extracts from the third number of the journal Prospective, entitled "Relations between the West and the rest of the world". In it, the authors (Gaston Berger, Jean Darcet and Marcel Demonque) analyse the difficulties raised by the aid offered (sometimes imposed) by the West to so-called "underdeveloped countries" (for example, financial or technical assistance), and the actual or inherent risks to the populations of these countries who, viewing this aid as a sign of criticism of their cultures, began to oppose the West. The authors stress the importance of human values and beliefs in relations between civilizations, and conclude by discussing the distinction between civilizations and cultures: the former defined as relating to universal values, the latter to more personal - and therefore inevitably more varied - values.

Chapitre de rapport annuel vigie

Économie, emploi - Géopolitique

Chapitre 4 du rapport Vigie 2007 : La Chine et l’Inde : le sprint des géants

En Chine et en Inde, la combinaison d’une croissance économique soutenue, de capacités militaires en expansion et de populations nombreuses constitueront le socle d’une croissance attendue en forte accélération, tant sur le plan économique que sur le plan politique. La Chine et l’Inde ont amorcé « un sprint soudain dans la course à la puissance » et ont à ce jour à peine commencé leur bouleversement de l’ordre international. Chindia, la Chine et l’Inde agrégées du fait ...

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Note de veille

Géopolitique

Les Russes de moins en moins démocrates ?

Un sondage récent du centre Youri Lévada montre que les Russes sont de moins en moins nombreux à vouloir défendre " une démocratie sur le modèle occidental ". Le nombre de nostalgiques du régime communiste reste stable.

Note de veille

Géopolitique

Union européenne : l’élargissement en panne ?

Le dernier document de stratégie de la Commission européenne sur les pays candidats à l'entrée dans l'Union manifeste des perspectives très incertaines d'élargissement à court et moyen termes.

Tribune européenne

Géopolitique

Clarifying the powers of the European Union

A new intergovernmental meeting was held at the end of July 2007 in order to try to overcome the institutional impasse resulting from the rejection of the European Constitution by France and the Netherlands in 2005. The EU's member states discussed the drafting of a "constitutional mini-treaty" to be submitted to the meeting of the European Council in October 2007. In this month's op-ed piece on the EU, written before the Council meeting, Jean-François Drevet examines one of the matters that must be sorted out: how powers should be divided between the EU and the member states, focussing particularly on France and Germany.

Note de veille

Géopolitique

Birmanie : le point de non-retour ?

Jean Hourcade, membre d'Asie 21, le groupe de réflexion de Futuribles sur les futurs possibles de l'Asie, nous présente dans ce texte des scénarios d'évolution de la situation politique en Birmanie, pays dans lequel il a vécu et dont il analyse les évolutions depuis des années.

Tribune européenne

Géopolitique

Libya, the Mediterranean and the European Union

This month Jean-François Drevet's op-ed piece focuses on the relations between the European Union and its neighbour Libya, which is seeking to normalize its international relations, but also with the other Mediterranean countries that are the EU's partners in the context of the Barcelona agreements. He argues that there are many obstacles in the way of establishing concrete policies to promote co-operation between the EU and these nations. In addition to the criteria related to encouraging democracy and respect for human rights, the relations that these countries have with each other reflect the difficulties involved in improving regional co-operation. The best way forward is probably to be pragmatic, for example by encouraging the countries south and east of the Mediterranean to develop collaborative action in some sectors (such as the environment) in order to test how far they are prepared to co-operate at the supranational level.

Revue

Géopolitique - Population

Iraq: Migration and New Sources of Conflict

Ever since the intervention in Iraq by the coalition led by the United States, begun in 2003 and continuing today, Iraq has been the scene of terrible conflict. The fighting between coalition forces and the army of Saddam Hussein has been followed by civil war, the rivalries being in some cases religious (Sunni versus Shia), in others ethnic (Kurd versus Arab), with in addition violence of various kinds against the occupying forces. In August 2007, the number of civilian Iraqis killed since the start of the intervention is estimated as somewhere between 70,000 and 76,000 (according to Iraq Body Count).
Faced with this situation, increasing numbers of Iraqis are fleeing their country and seeking refuge in neighbouring states. François de Jouvenel examines where matters now stand with regard to the population movements and the problems they raise - not just humanitarian but also social and political - in the receiving countries (Syria and Jordan in particular), and highlights the geopolitical risks that result from them for the region as a whole.

Note de veille

Géopolitique

Traité européen : plus facile à signer qu’à ratifier ?

Dans les efforts qu'elle a déployés lors du sommet de juin 2007 pour sortir de l'impasse créée par les réponses négatives aux référendums du printemps 2005, la présidence allemande a obtenu un accord sur un calendrier d'adoption du " traité simplifié ", appelé à se substituer au projet de traité constitutionnel.

Revue

Géopolitique - Population

Demographic Exceptionalism in the United States: Tendancies and Implications

In April 2000, Futuribles published an article by Nicholas Eberstadt warning of the risks of serious problems in Russia arising from the declining health of the Russian population and the demographic consequences; his analysis seems so far to be accurate. In this issue we are publishing another article by Nicholas Eberstadt, devoted this time to population change in the United States, which he says is the demographic exception because its population growth sets it apart from the other major industrialized countries.
First he describes the exceptionally high fertility rates of American women (a long-term trend that he reckons is likely to continue and perhaps even become stronger) compared with European rates and he outlines the factors that may explain this difference. He goes on to discuss the special contribution of immigration in the American case and the influence that this migration model continues to have on strong population growth. Lastly, extrapolating from the trends that he has described, Nicholas Eberstadt suggests several possible trends for American demographics between now and 2025: he stresses in particular the growing gap between the United States and Europe with regard to population change and the possible economic and geopolitical consequences that this may have.

Chapitre Géopolitique

Ce chapitre est extrait du Rapport Vigie 2016 de Futuribles International, qui propose un panorama structuré des connaissances et des incertitudes des experts que l'association a mobilisés pour explorer les évolutions des 15 à 35 prochaines années sur 11 thématiques.