Géopolitique

Cette page regroupe l'ensemble des publications de Futuribles sur cette thématique (Vigie, revue, bibliographie, études, etc.)

Bibliography

Géopolitique

State of the Future 2008

Cette 12e édition de State of the Future propose, en six parties, un état des lieux des problèmes émergents qui concernent et concerneront l'humanité. En premier lieu, 15 défis mondiaux nécessitant des stratégies mondiales sont identifiés : le développement durable et le changement climatique, l'eau potable, la croissance de la population mondiale et le manque de ressources, la démocratisation, la prise en compte du long terme par les politiques, la convergence mondiale des technologies de l'information, le fossé ...

(351 more words)

Bibliography

Géopolitique

The Future of North America 2025 : Outlook and Recommendations

Si les États-Unis, le Canada et le Mexique sont souvent regroupés sous la notion géographique, et parfois économique, d?« Amérique du Nord », leur coopération porte rarement sur la définition de problématiques et d?enjeux communs à moyen-long terme. C?est pourquoi cet ouvrage (le résultat de plusieurs années de travaux communs d?institutions et d?experts des trois pays concernés) propose véritablement d?envisager ce que pourrait être l?avenir commun de ces trois pays à l?horizon 2025, tout ...

(635 more words)

Bibliography

Géopolitique - Institutions

Perspectivas económicas de América Latina 2009

Le Centre de développement de l'OCDE vient de publier son rapport annuel sur les perspectives économiques en Amérique latine, qui porte cette année sur la politique fiscale, considérée comme un élément essentiel pour le développement économique, la réduction de la pauvreté et des inégalités, dans un contexte économique difficile. En effet, l'Amérique latine ne devrait pas échapper au ralentissement économique mondial : la croissance soutenue dont a bénéficié la région, favorisée par des facteurs externes (prix élevés des produits ...

(668 more words)

Tribune européenne

Géopolitique

The Budget of the Union in Question

On 12 September 2007, the European Commission launched a broad consultation on the future of the European Union's finances, inviting all parties concerned at the local, regional, national and European levels to take part in the debate on the Union's budget, with a view to a reform project that should take shape in 2008-2009.
Jean-François Drevet therefore devotes his December column to the European budget, reminding us of the current rules and the practices in force in a context that is still, in his view, overly characterized by national preoccupations. He presents a number of possible developmental paths, stressing the point that it is important to see this question in terms of added value from joint action, not of a "fair return" on contributions.

Futurs d'antan

Entreprises, travail - Géopolitique - Société, modes de vie

The West and the World (1959) - Futures of Yesteryear

Following on from the special issue of Futuribles devoted to "Dialogue or Clashes of Culture" published last July, we reprint here extracts from the third number of the journal Prospective, entitled "Relations between the West and the rest of the world". In it, the authors (Gaston Berger, Jean Darcet and Marcel Demonque) analyse the difficulties raised by the aid offered (sometimes imposed) by the West to so-called "underdeveloped countries" (for example, financial or technical assistance), and the actual or inherent risks to the populations of these countries who, viewing this aid as a sign of criticism of their cultures, began to oppose the West. The authors stress the importance of human values and beliefs in relations between civilizations, and conclude by discussing the distinction between civilizations and cultures: the former defined as relating to universal values, the latter to more personal - and therefore inevitably more varied - values.

Forum

Géopolitique

The Shiite Awakening. The New Face of Civil War

From the 1979 Islamic Revolution in Iran to the recent collapse of the Saddam Hussein regime in Iraq, the "Shiite question" has regularly been mentioned but seldom analysed in depth, even though it plays an essential role in the regional equilibrium and, increasingly, the gap is widening between this minority strand within Islam (fewer than 15% of Muslims) and the majority denomination (the Sunni). François Zabbal provides a portrait of Shiism here: the identity, history and political involvements of Shiites (from Iran to the Lebanese Hezbollah, not forgetting Palestine), their presence in the Middle East etc. He touches also on the "Shiite revival" (particularly in the area of philosophy) and discusses the possibility of a Shiite axis developing around Iran that could lead to a break up of the Middle East along the lines of recent Iraqi experience, one of the consequences of which is to have put off the prospect of any kind of Arab or Islamic unity for many years.

Chapitre de rapport annuel vigie

Économie, emploi - Géopolitique

Chapitre 4 du rapport Vigie 2007 : La Chine et l’Inde : le sprint des géants

En Chine et en Inde, la combinaison d’une croissance économique soutenue, de capacités militaires en expansion et de populations nombreuses constitueront le socle d’une croissance attendue en forte accélération, tant sur le plan économique que sur le plan politique. La Chine et l’Inde ont amorcé « un sprint soudain dans la course à la puissance » et ont à ce jour à peine commencé leur bouleversement de l’ordre international. Chindia, la Chine et l’Inde agrégées du fait ...

(215 more words)

Note de veille

Géopolitique

Les Russes de moins en moins démocrates ?

Un sondage récent du centre Youri Lévada montre que les Russes sont de moins en moins nombreux à vouloir défendre " une démocratie sur le modèle occidental ". Le nombre de nostalgiques du régime communiste reste stable.

Note de veille

Géopolitique

Union européenne : l’élargissement en panne ?

Le dernier document de stratégie de la Commission européenne sur les pays candidats à l'entrée dans l'Union manifeste des perspectives très incertaines d'élargissement à court et moyen termes.

Tribune européenne

Géopolitique

Clarifying the powers of the European Union

A new intergovernmental meeting was held at the end of July 2007 in order to try to overcome the institutional impasse resulting from the rejection of the European Constitution by France and the Netherlands in 2005. The EU's member states discussed the drafting of a "constitutional mini-treaty" to be submitted to the meeting of the European Council in October 2007. In this month's op-ed piece on the EU, written before the Council meeting, Jean-François Drevet examines one of the matters that must be sorted out: how powers should be divided between the EU and the member states, focussing particularly on France and Germany.

Note de veille

Géopolitique

Birmanie : le point de non-retour ?

Jean Hourcade, membre d'Asie 21, le groupe de réflexion de Futuribles sur les futurs possibles de l'Asie, nous présente dans ce texte des scénarios d'évolution de la situation politique en Birmanie, pays dans lequel il a vécu et dont il analyse les évolutions depuis des années.

Tribune européenne

Géopolitique

Libya, the Mediterranean and the European Union

This month Jean-François Drevet's op-ed piece focuses on the relations between the European Union and its neighbour Libya, which is seeking to normalize its international relations, but also with the other Mediterranean countries that are the EU's partners in the context of the Barcelona agreements. He argues that there are many obstacles in the way of establishing concrete policies to promote co-operation between the EU and these nations. In addition to the criteria related to encouraging democracy and respect for human rights, the relations that these countries have with each other reflect the difficulties involved in improving regional co-operation. The best way forward is probably to be pragmatic, for example by encouraging the countries south and east of the Mediterranean to develop collaborative action in some sectors (such as the environment) in order to test how far they are prepared to co-operate at the supranational level.

Revue

Géopolitique - Population

Iraq: Migration and New Sources of Conflict

Ever since the intervention in Iraq by the coalition led by the United States, begun in 2003 and continuing today, Iraq has been the scene of terrible conflict. The fighting between coalition forces and the army of Saddam Hussein has been followed by civil war, the rivalries being in some cases religious (Sunni versus Shia), in others ethnic (Kurd versus Arab), with in addition violence of various kinds against the occupying forces. In August 2007, the number of civilian Iraqis killed since the start of the intervention is estimated as somewhere between 70,000 and 76,000 (according to Iraq Body Count).
Faced with this situation, increasing numbers of Iraqis are fleeing their country and seeking refuge in neighbouring states. François de Jouvenel examines where matters now stand with regard to the population movements and the problems they raise - not just humanitarian but also social and political - in the receiving countries (Syria and Jordan in particular), and highlights the geopolitical risks that result from them for the region as a whole.

Chapitre Géopolitique

Ce chapitre est extrait du Rapport Vigie 2016 de Futuribles International, qui propose un panorama structuré des connaissances et des incertitudes des experts que l'association a mobilisés pour explorer les évolutions des 15 à 35 prochaines années sur 11 thématiques.