Géopolitique

Cette page regroupe l'ensemble des publications de Futuribles sur cette thématique (Vigie, revue, bibliographie, études, etc.)

Tribune européenne

Géopolitique

The Independence of Kosovo and its Consequences

Though it ended almost nine years ago in December 1999, the war which, for more than three years, pitted the Serbian and Albanian communities against each other in the Kosovo region has left its mark. Despite a peace process conducted under international supervision, palpable tensions have remained in this Balkan region, which was until recently part of the Republic of Serbia. As a result of these, Kosovo officially declared its independence on 17 February 2008.
Recognition of Kosovan independence, though made easier by the still vivid memory of the numerous violations of human rights suffered by the (majority) Muslim community in the Milosevic era, still poses a problem for the European Union. This is due in part to the provisions of international law in this domain and, in part, to the relatively incoherent borders of Kosovo and the scattered presence within the area of many Albanian-speaking minorities, which may revive regional tensions. Jean-François Drevet examines the ins and outs of this Kosovan question, particularly from the standpoint of the European Union.

Forum

Géopolitique

Towards a Strategic Vision for the French Defence Budget

In spring 2008, a White Paper is due to be published in France on defence and national security. One of the objectives set by the President of the Republic for this document is the thoroughgoing reform of the Ministry of Defence. In this article, Marie Badey-André and Anne-François de Saint Salvy, who have a thorough knowledge of French security issues and of the operation of the defence ministry, express their concern at the way the French defence establishment is currently organized and financed, and call for the urgent development of a strategic vision for the defence budget.
In the first instance, they stress the imperative need for a political vision for defence that takes account both of the new status of France (as a middle-ranking power in a globalized system) and the necessary recourse to multilateral structures (particularly those of the European Union) to maintain a strategic position internationally. They go on to call for a strategic management of the defence budget that has the courage to make choices on the future shape of the French defence establishment. Lastly, they propose various courses of action to achieve this, which consist essentially in removing the structural administrative encumbrances the Defence Ministry has to contend with (for example, by promoting joint thinking between the finance and defence ministries).
At the time of going to press in early April, the White Paper had not been published, though, even if it had, no decisions concerning budgets would have been taken. There is every chance, then, that this call for strategic thinking ahead of decisions on French defence spending will succeed in making itself heard.

Revue

Géopolitique - Ressources naturelles, énergie, environnement

Palestine: Overcoming Adverse Water Conditions

In this second article in a series on water-related violence, begun in the Futuribles issue of March 2008 , Pierre Blanc examines the Israel/Palestine case. He shows the extent to which, despite a substantial concentration of water in the West Bank, the Palestinian population finds itself in a precarious situation with regard to water. This relates mainly to Israel's stranglehold on a large part of the region's water resources and their management, together with its extensive use of irrigation in agriculture. The building of the West Bank Barrier between Palestinians and Israelis has simply accentuated this inequality in the use of regional water resources.
Despite this, Pierre Blanc informs us, it is not entirely implausible that this very unbalanced situation could be overcome. It is conceivable that some of the water controlled by the Israelis could be handed back to the Palestinians as part of the peace agreements, particularly if a reduction in the number of Israeli settlements could be assumed, but also if Israel were to take the (economically rational) decision to plant fewer "thirsty" crops or to sub-contract part of its agricultural production to the Palestinians (with a simultaneous increase in water supply). The jobs thereby created would contribute to raising the standard of living, which would in turn increase the consumption of higher-value-added Israeli products. But none of this can be achieved without the political will to do so.

CR table ronde

Économie, emploi - Géopolitique - Population

L’Inde à l’horizon 2025 : ses perspectives économiques

Jean-Joseph Boillot a tout d’abord justifié le choix d’une étude de l’Inde à l’horizon 2025, qui lui paraît être une base de travail raisonnable compte tenu du cycle d’un investissement commercial (compris entre 5 et 15 ans) et, plus subjectivement, parce que cette date ne semble pas trop éloignée.

Tribune européenne

Géopolitique - Institutions

The Changes Facing the European Commission

As an inevitable result of the accession of new member states and institutional reforms, today's European Commission is less and less like the one that was created in 1957. Having expanded from 9 commissioners at its first meeting in 1958 to 27 in 2007, its role has evolved, as this Column shows, and is set to evolve further since, from 2014 onwards, it will have a membership of only two-thirds of the number of member states, with a rotation system and a redistribution of portfolios among commissioners during their mandates. If we add to this the creation of the function of High Representative of the Union for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy, who will also be a member of the Commission, there is a risk, says Jean-François Drevet, that we may find ourselves in an unstable system with a college of commissioners that is less independent of member-state governments, and hence potentially less active and undoubtedly less likely to drive European construction than the Commission in its original form.

Revue

Géopolitique - Institutions

A Look at the Treaty of Lisbon

After two and half years of institutional uncertainties following the rejection of the Draft European Constitution by the French and Dutch electorates in 2005, the 27 member states of the European Union agreed in October 2007 on a so-called "simplified" text: the Treaty of Lisbon or "The Treaty modifying the Treaty on European Union and the Treaty Establishing the European Community". Signed on 13 December last, this treaty is currently in process of ratification in the various member states (the French ratified it in parliament in February 2008).
What is the nature of this document? What are the main differences from the previous Draft Constitution? In what ways will it modify the operation of European institutions and with what consequences, particularly at the political level? Robert Toulemon, an astute observer of European construction, here offers us a detailed analysis of the Treaty of Lisbon, regretting, as he does so, that the prospects for genuine political union have receded somewhat.

Bibliography

Géopolitique - Territoires, réseaux

« Debating China’s Future »

China Security est une revue trimestrielle, interdisciplinaire, consacrée aux questions de sécurité qui concernent la Chine et ses relations avec les États-Unis et le reste du monde. Elle est publiée depuis 2005 par le World Security Institute [www.worldsecurityinstitute.org], un centre de recherche indépendant et à but non lucratif basé à Washington, spécialisé dans les « questions » « de sécurité internationale. La revue présente dans sa dernière livraison un dossier thématique intitulé « Debating China’s Future », qui regroupe les contributions de ...

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Note de veille

Géopolitique

Le pouvoir chinois à l’épreuve du ciel

" Le gouvernement chinois a déclaré sa victoire partielle dans sa lutte contre les pires neiges et glaces en 50 ans, mettant en valeur les puissantes forces générales nationales, tout en reconnaissant que le pays en était toujours à la phase primaire du socialisme avec un développement déséquilibré entre villes et campagnes, et des infrastructures de transports et d'énergie relativement faibles". À travers la paralysie des transports et les pénuries d'électricité, l'hiver exceptionnel qui a frappé la Chine ...

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Tribune européenne

Géopolitique

Black Sea Challenges

In this month's European column, Jean-François Drevet examines the issues that arise for Europe from the Black Sea region. The Black Sea is increasingly becoming a crucial place of transit for hydrocarbon imports from the Caspian and Russia into the European Union. The considerable increase in this traffic raises both environmental problems (the risk of oil slicks) and issues of security of supply, on account of the economic and political fragility of some of the bordering or neighbouring states (Ukraine, Georgia, Armenia, Azerbaijan, Russia/Chechnya etc.). This is why, as Jean-François Drevet stresses, the European Union has been trying since the mid-1990s to claim a role in the management of the affairs of the region. With two bordering states (Rumania and Bulgaria) joining the EU in 2007, cooperation in the Black Sea has become a priority within the framework of the European Neighbourhood Policy, and this column delineates a number of the obstacles that still have to be surmounted.

Revue

Géopolitique

India, China and Japan: The Future of Asian Power

On 12 October 2007, a conference was held in Paris on the theme "India 2025: Possible Scenarios, and Issues for France and Europe". It was organized by the Institut des hautes études de défense nationale and the "Asia 21" group (Futuribles International). Among the ranges of questions considered were the geopolitical changes in India, which include the development of relations between that country and its two great Asian neighbours, China and Japan. Isabelle Saint-Mézard, who covered this issue in the "India 2025" conference, broadly restates here her analysis of the triangular relationship between India, China and Japan and of the prospective development of that relationship over the next 15-20 years.
After outlining the factors that make for increasing interdependence between these three countries (among them, openness to international trade, energy supply and security issues), she analyses the rapprochement between China and India that has been developing for some years and its potentially lasting character. She then studies relations between India and Japan, which are essentially economic and less developed than with China, but likely to strengthen, particularly at the political and geopolitical levels, most notably to counter their neighbour China, if that country were to assume too great an influence in Asia. As Isabelle Saint-Mézard stresses in conclusion, the relations between these three Asian giants will doubtless increase in complexity, including both competitive and cooperative aspects. Those relations will depend on each country's desire to maintain the regional status quo, the positioning of China being particularly significant in this regard.

Revue

Géopolitique

India, China and Japan: The Future of Asian Power

On 12 October 2007, a conference was held in Paris on the theme "India 2025: Possible Scenarios, and Issues for France and Europe". It was organized by the Institut des hautes études de défense nationale and the "Asia 21" group (Futuribles International). Among the ranges of questions considered were the geopolitical changes in India, which include the development of relations between that country and its two great Asian neighbours, China and Japan. Isabelle Saint-Mézard, who covered this issue in the "India 2025" conference, broadly restates here her analysis of the triangular relationship between India, China and Japan and of the prospective development of that relationship over the next 15-20 years.
After outlining the factors that make for increasing interdependence between these three countries (among them, openness to international trade, energy supply and security issues), she analyses the rapprochement between China and India that has been developing for some years and its potentially lasting character. She then studies relations between India and Japan, which are essentially economic and less developed than with China, but likely to strengthen, particularly at the political and geopolitical levels, most notably to counter their neighbour China, if that country were to assume too great an influence in Asia. As Isabelle Saint-Mézard stresses in conclusion, the relations between these three Asian giants will doubtless increase in complexity, including both competitive and cooperative aspects. Those relations will depend on each country's desire to maintain the regional status quo, the positioning of China being particularly significant in this regard.

Tribune européenne

Géopolitique - Ressources naturelles, énergie, environnement

The Common Agricultural Policy and its Reform

This month, the European column is devoted to the Common Agricultural Policy (CAP), the oldest and most extensive of the European Union's common policies (dating from 1962 and accounting for 45% of the European budget). Apart from its initial objectives (increasing agricultural productivity, providing a fair standard of living for the agricultural population, stabilizing markets, guaranteeing security of supply and ensuring reasonable prices for consumers), the CAP today forms part of an approach involving respect for the environment and rural development. Nevertheless, as Jean-François Drevet reminds us here, the system that was set up in a climate of post-war shortages is not well-suited to present realities. Moreover, it is open to many criticisms regarding the size of its budget, the problems posed by enlargement and the inequality of the assistance provided, which favours large landowners. After reviewing the reforms begun in 1992 and 1999, Jean-François Drevet outlines the changes provided for in the Treaty of Lisbon and recommends taking advantage of the strong financial situation of the agricultural sector to carry through this reform.

Bibliography

Géopolitique - Population

Global Trends 2025 : A Transformed World

Le National Intelligence Council américain (NIC) vient de publier Global Trends 2025: A Transformed World, qui constitue le quatrième opus de sa série de rapports de prospective. Le NIC, organisme rattaché directement au « Director of National Intelligence », est chargé de fournir à celui-ci et aux décideurs de haut niveau (en particulier le président des États-Unis) des analyses de moyen et long termes sur la politique étrangère et de sécurité nationale à partir de l'ensemble des moyens de la communauté ...

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Revue

Géopolitique - Population - Société, modes de vie

European Youth's Values and Lifestyles. An Analysis of a Survey conducted in 17 Countries

Having surveyed trends in the values of Scandinavian youth for more than 10 years, Kairos Future has extended its field of study to the youth of 17 - mostly European - countries. In this article, the authors present the broad conclusions of that study of European youth within the contemporary international context. They stress the fact that the characteristics observed may not perhaps be peculiar to this period of life (the "life-cycle" effect), but could herald longer-term developments in ways of life, consumption patterns or modes of working.
After reviewing general tendencies in the development of values in Europe, the authors present the current dominant trends in young Europeans' life choices. These include greater significance accorded to personal fulfilment, and the increased importance of status, money and celebrity. Specifying the features peculiar to each nation, the authors go on to develop the following themes: the development of the work-life balance, the interest in study and entrepreneurship, the desire to start a family, young people's optimism about their futures, increasing individualism against a background of international concerns (with respect, for example, to the environment), etc.
Lastly, they analyse elements that indicate a common identity among young people at the European, Asian and world levels. Such elements definitely exist, but doubtless not yet to a sufficient degree to speak of the existence of a European, Asian or global youth identity.

Bibliography

Géopolitique - Ressources naturelles, énergie, environnement

Engager la troisième révolution industrielle. Un nouvel ordre du jour énergétique pour l’Union européenne du XXIe siècle

Nous approcherons dans la première moitié du XXIe siècle de la fin de l'ère du pétrole, affirme Jeremy Rifkin. La croissance du coût de l'énergie fossile et la question climatique pèseront sur toutes les décisions économiques et politiques qui seront prises au cours de la première moitié du siècle. Un nouveau système d'énergie s'impose, celui-ci reposera, comme cela a déjà été le cas par le passé, sur un nouveau système de communication. Selon l'auteur, les ...

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Tribune européenne

Géopolitique - Institutions

Europe and Referenda

Jean-François Drevet devotes this month's European column to the use of referenda by member states for ratifying treaties or treaty changes decided by the European Union. As he shows, there are a number of stumbling blocks on the referendum route in Europe: the subjects to be voted on may be worded in too complex a fashion; the piecemeal construction of Europe involves frequent treaty changes; the unanimity rule poses problems; and the topics put to a referendum may be hi-jacked by national political issues. Since Ireland is the only country required by its constitution to submit such matters to a referendum, it is not clear that this is the most appropriate way, in the current context, to achieve the ratification of European treaties in the other member states.

Chapitre Géopolitique

Ce chapitre est extrait du Rapport Vigie 2016 de Futuribles International, qui propose un panorama structuré des connaissances et des incertitudes des experts que l'association a mobilisés pour explorer les évolutions des 15 à 35 prochaines années sur 11 thématiques.