Géopolitique

Cette page regroupe l'ensemble des publications de Futuribles sur cette thématique (Vigie, revue, bibliographie, études, etc.)

Bibliography

Géopolitique - Ressources naturelles, énergie, environnement

In Search of Shelter : Mapping the Effects of Climate Change on Human Migration and Displacement

Selon la définition de l?Organisation internationale pour les migrations (OIM) [www.iom.int], « on appelle migrants environnementaux les personnes ou groupes de personnes qui, pour des raisons impérieuses liées à un changement environnemental soudain ou progressif influant négativement sur leur vie ou leurs conditions de vie, sont contraintes de quitter leur foyer habituel ou le quittent de leur propre initiative, temporairement ou définitivement, et qui, de ce fait, se déplacent à l'intérieur de leur pays ou en sortent ...

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Bibliography

Géopolitique - Ressources naturelles, énergie, environnement

Perspectives agricoles de l’OCDE et de la FAO 2009-2018. Synthèse

Dans l'édition 2008 des Perspectives agricoles, l’OCDE et la FAO misaient déjà sur une hausse plus modérée des prix des produits agricoles. Prenant en compte l’impact de la crise économique mondiale, elles précisent cette année leurs prévisions : les prix pourraient ralentir leur progression jusqu’en 2012, puis recommencer à augmenter lorsque la reprise économique sera confirmée. À l’horizon des 10 prochaines années, les prix du riz et du blé pourraient connaître les plus fortes hausses, alors ...

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Bibliography

Géopolitique - Population

Older Persons in Southeast Asia : An Emerging Asset

Au cours des années 1950 et 1960, les pays d’Asie du Sud-Est entamaient la première phase de leur transition démographique caractérisée par l’explosion du baby-boom. Le déclin des taux de fécondité s’amorce à la fin des années 1960. Depuis la fin des années 1970, l’Asie a donc bénéficié d’un dividende démographique qui a alimenté l’expansion économique spectaculaire de la région. Mais l’Asie sera vieille avant d’être riche. Conséquence logique du baby-boom et ...

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Bibliography

Géopolitique - Ressources naturelles, énergie, environnement

Indonesia beyond the Water’s Edge. Managing an Archipelagic State

La Partie IV (article 46) de la convention sur le droit de la mer signée à Montego Bay (1982) définit l’« État archipel » comme « un État constitué entièrement par un ou plusieurs archipels et éventuellement d’autres îles ». Quant à la définition de « l’archipel », il s’agit d’« un ensemble d'îles, y compris des parties d'îles, les eaux attenantes et les autres éléments naturels qui ont les uns avec les autres des rapports si étroits qu'ils ...

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Bibliography

Géopolitique - Ressources naturelles, énergie, environnement

The Economics of Climate Change in Southeast Asia : A Regional Review

Ce rapport a été réalisé grâce à l?assistance technique de la Banque asiatique de développement (BAD) et à un financement du gouvernement du Royaume-Uni. Il s?agit du premier rapport consacré à l?économie du changement climatique à l?échelle de l?Asie du Sud-Est, qui traite des conséquences, des vulnérabilités, des coûts associés, ainsi que des opportunités et des options politiques qui se présentent aux gouvernements. L?étude se concentre en particulier sur cinq pays, l?Indonésie, les ...

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Revue

Géopolitique

The United States in 2033. On Herbert J. Gans's Book, Imagining America in 2033

As Barack Obama, the forty-fourth - and also the first non-white - president of the United States of America, prepares to take over, Herbert Gans's book Imagining America in 2033: How the Country Put Itself Together After Bush (Ann Arbor: University of Michigan Press, 2008) seems perfectly timed.
Bernard Cazes and Julien Damon have read this exercise in political fiction for Futuribles and, in their review, present the broad outlines of an America transformed by a Democratic wave that has swept away the legacy of the Republic era and, in particular, the policies of George W. Bush. It is, then, in a resolutely multipolar world and a relatively calm geopolitical climate that the United States is seen operating in 2033, having rejoined the battle against climate change and substantially strengthened its welfare state to the greater joy of the American citizenry. Though probably utopian, this is nonetheless an innovative book and could, in some respects, inspire the next occupants of the White House.

Bibliography

Géopolitique - Ressources naturelles, énergie, environnement

Quand agriculture rime avec géopolitique

Dans ce dossier de l’IRIS, les liens entre agriculture et géopolitique, de plus en plus prégnants, sont explorés. En effet, le caractère stratégique et la dimension géopolitique de l’agriculture, s’ils furent quelque peu oubliés à la fin du XXe siècle, reviennent actuellement avec force sur le devant de la scène internationale. La crise alimentaire mondiale observée au printemps 2008 constitue à ce titre une piqûre de rappel douloureuse. Pierre Blanc, du CIHEAM (Centre international des hautes études ...

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Bibliography

Géopolitique

Multiple Futures Project : Navigating towards 2030

Dans l?optique de l?adoption de son nouveau concept stratégique en décembre 2010, l?OTAN a rendu public son premier document de travail, Multiple Futures Project. L?Alliance s?y interroge sur les défis qu?elle pourrait avoir à relever à l?horizon 2030. Dans un premier temps sont définies neuf variables considérées comme les principales sources de changement possible : la répartition des pouvoirs (degré de facilité avec lequel sont prises les décisions au niveau international), l?intégration économique ...

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Bibliography

Géopolitique - Ressources naturelles, énergie, environnement

Méditerranée 2030

Deux partis pris caractérisent le rapport Méditerranée 2030. D?une part, celui de se focaliser sur l?est et le sud du Bassin méditerranéen. D?autre part, les auteurs ont choisi de se concentrer sur six enjeux pour la région (géopolitique, développement humain, agriculture, environnement, énergie et finance), avant de proposer trois brefs scénarios, plus ou moins plausibles. La transition démographique, le réchauffement climatique et la fragmentation géopolitique apparaissent comme les principales sources de conflits dans cette région. D?ici ...

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Tribune européenne

Géopolitique

Russia and Europe

Various recent events (particularly the Russian intervention in Georgia in August 2008) suggest that Russia is currently repositioning itself on the international scene, displaying power ambitions toward the former republics of the Soviet Union and "nearby foreign states." If this were to be confirmed, the situation would smack somewhat of a Cold War, with the European Union in the front line. How exactly do matters stand here? In this article, Jean-François Drevet shows what Russia's aims are, what weapons it has available to it (mainly in the energy field) and how the European Union (which today includes former satellite states of the USSR) is reacting in this new context. He is none too optimistic about the improvement of Russo-European relations and stresses the (urgent) need to develop common European policies (particularly on energy) to resist possible future pressure and continue to support democratic advance in Eastern Europe.

Revue

Économie, emploi - Géopolitique

The Crisis and the Shift towards Asia: Issues for Europe

Last October Philippe Delalande enquired, in this journal, into the impact of the current Western financial crisis on the Chinese economy, indicating that that crisis might ultimately present an opportunity for China to stabilize its economic development at a "sustainable" level. This month Jean-Raphaël Chaponnière goes beyond this and offers an analysis of the mid- and long-term consequences of recent economic developments on the global equilibrium and, more particularly, on the influence of the Asian continent, and the ensuing issues for Europe.
After recalling demographic changes and prospects in Asia, he shows that the economic shift begun in the 1970s with the rise of Japan and confirmed in the 1990s by the "miracle" of the new industrialized countries, is currently being reaffirmed, despite the sideshow of the 1997 crisis. Hence, unless a scenario emerges in which "globalization grinds to a halt," the heart of the global economy could well come to reside lastingly in Asia, with internal (national or regional) demand as its main engine. Drawing on the relevant statistical evidence, Jean-Raphaël Chaponnière illustrates his argument by examining recent developments in, and the future prospects of, the main countries of Asia (China, India, South Korea, Taiwan etc.). Lastly, he outlines the consequences of this economic shift: competition over costs and quality of labour, an explosion in the number of consumers (the middle classes), an aggravation of the environmental situation (two elements Europe could draw on to reposition itself), geopolitical changes (the growing influence of China and India in Africa) etc.

Revue

Entreprises, travail - Géopolitique

Prospects for a European Labour Market

Since its inception, the European Union has advanced on two fronts: the expansion of its geographical space and the widening of the scope of its powers. With 27 member states today, the Union is a success with regard to free trade. It has also made great strides in terms of economic integration, but its advances in this area are still complicated by the absence, as yet, of a unified social policy, that brief remaining very largely in the hands of the member states. In a context of this kind, what is the current state of the European labour market, which, as we know, relates to both economic and social policies? And are there any prospects of unification?
Florence Lefresne presents a view of Europe's labour markets here, showing the extent to which European specificity, which is real when the Union is compared with other entities (the United States, Japan etc.), masks great internal diversity (in terms of employment rates, wage policies, unemployment management etc.). She also stresses the diversity that exists in respect of flexibility, pointing out that the most flexible countries do not systematically perform the best in employment terms, and that training schemes and unemployment insurance provision have a key role to play in the efficiency of labour markets.
On the basis of this analysis, she goes on to discuss the issues surrounding the mobility of European workers and, in particular, the real risks of social dumping in a union of individual states that still have very disparate developmental levels and social models. She assesses the European Employment Strategy, showing that the prevailing situation remains one of a "policy mix", with its attendant danger of a "race for the bottom", whereas the positive solution for a more homogeneous operation of European labour markets can indisputably be said to lie in "upward convergence", which requires the prior definition of a European social model.

Revue

Géopolitique - Ressources naturelles, énergie, environnement

The Nile, a River under Serious Pressure. Towards a Warlike Configuration in the Nile Basin?

Following the series on "water-related violence", begun in March 2008 by Pierre Blanc and continued in May, Barah Mikaïl takes a look here at the specific case of the Nile and related issues in East Africa.
The Nile is just over 4,000 miles long and has two tributaries, the White Nile and the Blue Nile. It either passes through or alongside some 10 African countries or is connected with them by its drainage basin (approx. 380 million inhabitants). Among these are three regional giants that are far from politically stable: Sudan, Egypt and Ethiopia (with almost 190 million inhabitants between them). How does the Nile influence the political situation in these countries and the regional geopolitical balances? What are the prospects for the peoples of the Nile region in such a context?
Barah Mikaïl provides a number of analytical keys here and shows what factors will shape these issues of the future. After presenting the particularities of the Nile basin as a hydraulic entity and recalling the historical phases the management of the river's waters has passed through, he enumerates the attendant geopolitical dangers, which include demographic and climatic constraints, social tensions, internal threats and regional rivalries. In this context, the particular case of Sudan seems to be among the most crucial in determining the future for the inhabitants of the Nile Basin.

Tribune européenne

Géopolitique

What About Switzerland?

September's European column analysed the nature and evolution of European popular opposition to the construction of Europe, recalling, in passing, the constant opposition of the Swiss to their country joining the European Union. This month, Jean-François Drevet returns at greater length to an examination of that country, which is indisputably European in culture, lies entirely within the Union geographically, and has a significant community of EU nationals living and working in it, yet which does not seem in any way inclined to join the Union as a fully-fledged member.
Why is this? What is Switzerland's status in respect of the Union? What is the nature of the co-operation between Switzerland and the EU and how might it develop? These are the main questions investigated here by Jean-François Drevet.

Note de veille

Géopolitique

Des fruits et légumes pour les enfants européens

Les instances de l'Union européenne savent être inventives. Alors que l'on déplore souvent le manque de concret de la construction et des instances européennes, une initiative récente de la Commission peut contribuer à redorer son blason. Il ne s'agit pas d'une construction juridique sophistiquée, mais d'un programme pragmatique.

CR intervention d'expert

Géopolitique

Quelle Chine pour demain : nouvelle ou impériale ?

Pour bien apprécier les évolutions possibles de la Chine à moyen ou long terme, il convient de rappeler rapidement quelle a été l'évolution de la Chine au cours des 30 dernières années et sur quelle trajectoire elle est actuellement. La question de la durabilité de la croissance chinoise est une question difficile à traiter : les économistes ont apporté des réponses les plus diverses à cette question depuis des années et actuellement les pronostics sont tout autant diversifiés. La question ...

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Forum

Géopolitique

Think Global, Act European. The EU Presidency and the Temptation of Short-termism

France took over the presidency of the European Union on 1 July 2008 and will hold it until the end of the year. It is a presidency that began amid a degree of upheaval, following the Irish refusal of 12 June 2008 to ratify the Treaty of Lisbon, which aimed to adapt community institutions to the developments of the Union over recent years. Apart from this key institutional aspect, what are the major issues to be tackled and from what angle?
Elvire Fabry and Gaëtane Ricard-Nihoul coordinated a recent study carried out by 13 European think-tanks - Think Global, Act European - which is intended to guide the next three presidencies of the EU toward these salient issues from a constructive, long-term perspective. In this article, they take up some of their conclusions, calling on the trio of France, the Czech Republic and Sweden to come together to push forward such essential matters as reform of the Common Agricultural Policy, the strengthening of European solidarity, the enhancement of Europe's democratic grassroots and the question of its international stature.

Revue

Éducation - Géopolitique

The Assessment of Adolescents. The Programme for International Student Assessment (PISA)

In order to complete its instruments for the comparative evaluation of teaching systems, the OECD has, since 2000, had in place an international programme for the assessment of students, known as PISA. Futuribles devoted an article to the programme in 2002 (no. 279), outlining its methodology and first findings. Since then, other assessments have been carried out as part of the scheme, in 2003 and 2006, and more are already planned for 2009, 2012 and 2015, covering between 40 and 60 countries, depending on the year.
Bernard Hugonnier takes another look at PISA, as it presents itself today, showing the importance of the programme and the advantages it offers for public decision-making. After reminding us of the originality of PISA so far as international comparisons are concerned, he provides a detailed account of the assessment methods used and a presentation of the planned future assessment cycles. He also analyses the latest findings of the (2006) PISA surveys and shows the lessons these provide on the level of students and the weaknesses they may reveal in the educational systems of the participating countries. He particularly stresses that good performances do not necessarily reflect economic investment in education, but rather the effectiveness of systems and their capacity to assist and integrate students from humbler backgrounds.
Like all instruments of evaluation, this one has its faults. For example, it covers only students aged 15 who are not re-assessed later. It is, nevertheless, an essential tool for education policy and, moreover, one that is proposing to develop and to expand its field of investigation.

Tribune européenne

Géopolitique

Unpopular Europe?

Following the Irish refusal of 12 June 2008 to ratify the Treaty of Lisbon modifying Community institutions, in this column Jean-François Drevet analyses the nature and evolution of popular opposition to the construction of Europe. He makes a distinction between two types of opposition: a structural opposition involving extreme-Right nationalists and extreme-Left anti-capitalists, and a more conjunctural opposition in the centre of the political spectrum, whose rejection of Europe has to do largely with the poor quality of information they receive or the hypocrisy of national political leaders, who are a little too ready to use Europe as a scapegoat. Unfortunately, Europe's unpopularity may well persist or even grow, says Jean-François Drevet. In fact, without a more reliable, educative output of information, closer Union can be achieved only by disregarding public opinion.

Chapitre Géopolitique

Ce chapitre est extrait du Rapport Vigie 2016 de Futuribles International, qui propose un panorama structuré des connaissances et des incertitudes des experts que l'association a mobilisés pour explorer les évolutions des 15 à 35 prochaines années sur 11 thématiques.