Géopolitique

Cette page regroupe l'ensemble des publications de Futuribles sur cette thématique (Vigie, revue, bibliographie, études, etc.)

Revue

Géopolitique

The Primacy of Geography. On the Article, ‘The Revenge of Geography’

In a recent article entitled “The Revenge of Geography”, published in the journal Foreign Policy, Robert D. Kaplan draws on three great U.S. and British classic authorities on geopolitics –Alfred Mahan, Sir Halford Mackinder and Nicholas J. Spykman — to reassert forcefully the precept that “man proposes, but nature disposes”. Following these authors’ view that physical and human geography is the main determinant of the development of the global geopolitical situation, he attempts to show what will be the main zones of future tension or even conflict. Bernard Cazes has examined the argument and reports, in this brief analysis, on its tenor and limitations.

Revue

Géopolitique - Institutions - Santé - Société, modes de vie

The Risks of an Influenza Pandemic: 2009 and After…

In March 2009, there was an outbreak of the Influenza A (H1N1) virus in Mexico. By the end of May it had killed 45 Mexicans, contaminated almost 3,800 and there were more than 10,000 confirmed cases throughout the world, 5,500 of them in the United States. On 11 June, with the virus affecting more than 27,000 persons in 74 countries, the World Health Organization (WHO) declared a level 6 maximum alert or, in other words, a state of global pandemic.
This pandemic turned out to be a “very active epidemic of moderate seriousness, but temporally atypical,’ as William Dab and Nina Testut put it here, stressing the unpredictable character of the development of all influenza viruses. “The management of influenza epidemics is basically a management of uncertainty”, say the authors, going on to observe that “it is impossible to manage a health security risk that includes a significant degree of uncertainty without the trust of stakeholders”.
Given this observation, William Dab et Nina Testut make an initial assessment of the way the pandemic was managed in France, define the reasons for — and role of — the “wave of polemics” that has accompanied this health crisis since last Summer, and examine the way the French perceived these various elements. “This H1N1 virus will, in the end, have taught us much we didn’t know about French society”, stress the two authors.

Revue

Géopolitique - Institutions - Santé

The Battle against Malaria. A Victory that is within Reach

Having remained silent about, and absent from, the struggle against malaria for a long period, the international community finally roused itself in the late 1990s and began to combat the disease on a “massive” scale. It is an illness entirely eradicated in the advanced countries, but one that still rages in poor ones, with almost a million dying each year, mainly in sub-Saharan Africa. It attacks those who are most vulnerable: namely, women, the under-fives, those with HIV/AIDS and displaced people.
Malaria is a “disease of poverty”, as Michèle Barzach and Sylvie Chantereau stress here. “As an individual and collective factor of social destabilization”, it hits the countries it affects hard in both economic and social terms. “Malaria can account for more than 50% of the expenditure of households coping with it directly”, note the authors. It is estimated to cost “sub-Saharan Africa more than 12 billion dollars in lost GDP”.
Yet it is an avoidable disease, thanks to some effective treatments and means of prevention, observe Michèle Barzach and Sylvie Chantereau. This is something the international community has realized, having for some ten years now carried on an unprecedented struggle against malaria, with funding that has risen from less than 100 million dollars in 2003 to 2 billion in 2009. In this context, the authors assert without hesitation that “all the conditions are in place today for malaria to be effectively controlled in all the affected areas of the globe, and even eliminated in some countries”. They stress, however, that the current research and funding effort has to be maintained if this is to happen.

Tribune européenne

Géopolitique - Institutions

Europe and Public Services

At a moment when the exposure of public services to competition is gradually extending in France to such sectors as energy production and distribution, rail transport and postal services,
Jean-François Drevet examines the effects of liberalization, a process that has been spreading within the European Union since the late 1980s.
After delivering a mixed verdict on the earliest privatizations, most notably in telecommunications and air transport, Drevet highlights the worrying prospects for recent and current liberalizations. “How is the public interest to be reconciled with that of a private operator?” he asks, before raising the question of the current relevance of this policy, given the EU’s new objectives — namely territorial cohesion, energy security and combating climate change. He goes on to stress the importance, in this context, of the concept of “smart regulation”

Revue

Géopolitique

Pakistan at the Heart of Geopolitical Tensions

Increasing attention is naturally being given to Asia at the moment, particularly to the emerging nations like China and India, and, for other reasons, the Western offensive against the Taliban is intensifying in the hope of pacifying the situation in Afghanistan. In these conditions, Pakistan, situated as it is at the crossroads between Iran, Afghanistan and China, remains nonetheless a subject of permanent perplexity, not least on account of its complex nature and the complexity of its relations with its neighbours.
With a surface area of some 850,000 sq kms (one and a half times the size of France), a very particular geographical configuration and a population of 180 million inhabitants (perhaps 300 million by 2050), it is the world’s second largest Muslim country after Indonesia. Faced internally with sizeable disparities and, particularly, with acute ethnic and religious tensions, its relations with its neighbours — particularly India, Iran and Afghanistan — are complex and potentially explosive.
Alain Lamballe, who knows this region particularly well, explains its singular situation to us, setting out the threats, both internal and external, facing Pakistan, the perception the country itself has of those threats and the strategy it has adopted. He outlines, too, the fears the world may reasonably have so far as the future of the country and the region is concerned.

Revue

Géopolitique - Ressources naturelles, énergie, environnement

Copenhagen: The Melancholia of Lucidity

From 26 to 28 November 2009, the Ateliers de la Terre organized a conference at Deauville on the theme of “Building a New Equilibrium”, at which the grounds for fear and hope with regard to the Copenhagen Summit were passionately debated.
Bettina Laville, who has been involved for many years in international negotiations on climate and the environment, goes back over that summit, interpreting it in the light of the debates held at Deauville. Echoing the arguments of Brice Lalonde, the French ambassador with responsibility for climate negotiations, she shows the tangible results obtained at Copenhagen. But, apart from the difficulties always encountered by these summits, she also stresses how much the world has changed since the Rio conference of 1992 and how different are the groups of countries that now structure international negotiations.
She stresses, for example, the extent to which we saw at the Copenhagen Summit “a demonstration of power and strength on the part of the new powers,” driven, moreover, by antagonistic concerns, particularly between “the resolve to regard climate change as the number one priority and the desire to promote economic growth.” Far from dissolving into globalization, these groups of countries, rooted in different civilizations, find themselves caught up in new oppositions — particularly with the West.
Consequently, concludes Bettina Laville, the terms and forms of the negotiations have changed radically and new avenues need to be explored between “catastrophism and activism”, in order to implement a concerted strategy for a desirable future. She outlines some of these key avenues here.

Revue

Géopolitique - Ressources naturelles, énergie, environnement

Paying for the Tropical Rainforests? The Prospects for an International Forests Regime based on their Remunerated Conservation

The forested surface of the Earth, which was estimated at 5 billion hectares at the beginning of the twentieth century now stands at less than 4 billion. Since the 1990s, 13 million hectares of tropical rainforest have disappeared every year throughout the world, which represents a reduction of 3 % per decade.
As Alain Karsenty reminds us here, deforestation, which has many and varied (economic, agricultural, demographic and cultural) causes, has serious consequences at both the local and the global levels. It endangers biodiversity, destroys soils and renders them infertile, affects the water-cycle and remains one of the main factors of global warming. Since forest soils and vegetation store significant quantities of carbon, their destruction represents a major source of CO2 emissions.
Successive policies have been implemented for conserving the forests and combatting deforestation since the 1980s, in an attempt to limit the loss of this ecosystem and damage to it. The outcomes, notes Alain Karsenty, have not been particularly successful. In this context, after describing these various global-level policies and the reasons for their lack of effectiveness, he raises the prospect of a new international regime “organized around the principle of the remunerated conservation of the tropical rainforests”, in which the credibility of states will be the crucial component. This is, he stresses, a fundamentally different regime, “insofar as its centre of gravity no longer lies in forest-management policies, but in the policies affecting the forests”.

Bibliography

Géopolitique

Europe 2030

À quoi ressemblera l’Union européenne (UE) en 2030 ? S’ils reconnaissent qu’il est pratiquement impossible de répondre à cette question, les auteurs réunis dans cet ouvrage proposent de réfléchir aux principales évolutions et aux grands défis auxquels la région pourrait être confrontée au cours des 20 prochaines années. Parmi ces spécialistes figurent notamment José Manuel Barroso, l’actuel président de la Commission européenne et Joschka Fischer, ancien ministre allemand des Affaires étrangères. En 20 ans, l’Union européenne ...

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Tribune européenne

Économie, emploi - Géopolitique

The Feasibility of a European Tax

The European Commission was due to present proposals in 2009 for determining the budget of the Union from 2013 onwards. This budget comes today from a contribution based on the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) of the member states and from part of the receipts from Value-Added Tax (VAT).
Discussions have, however, given rise to some bitter polemics and encountered numerous obstacles. This column by Jean-François Drevet explores the various means that might be adopted to provide the Commission with resources of its own — in particular, VAT, corporation tax, the taxation of the financial system and the carbon tax.

Futuribles

Géopolitique

Bibliographie prospective n°80

La Bibliographie prospective du mois de mars 2010 consacre son Focus au rapport "OECD Economic Surveys: China" publié par l'OCDE, consacré aux évolutions récentes de l'économie chinoise et aux défis qui attendent la société et les responsables politiques à l'avenir. Vous trouverez par ailleurs, et comme chaque mois, une sélection de comptes rendus de livres, études et rapports à dimension prospective, et plus particulièrement pour ce numéro, dans les domaines de l'environnement, de l'Union européenne ...

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Bibliography

Économie, emploi - Géopolitique

Monthly Bulletin

Dans le numéro de mars de son bulletin mensuel, la BCE s’intéresse à la récente dégradation des finances publiques des pays membres de l’UE (Union européenne) et envisage trois scénarios à l’horizon 2030. Au cours de l’année 2009, les déficits publics de tous les États membres se sont creusés, puisque la crise économique a entraîné une diminution de leurs recettes et une augmentation de leurs dépenses (plus ou moins importante selon la structure de leur système ...

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Revue

Économie, emploi - Géopolitique

Europe and Carbon Pricing. Some Guidelines

The introduction of a national carbon tax involves taking account of the greenhouse-gas emission pricing mechanisms that are already in place. Since the impact of emissions is the same whatever their origin, the cost-benefit ratio of emission-reduction measures is minimized when the extension of the scope of emissions subject to carbon pricing respects the single-price rule.
In concrete terms, this means that national carbon taxes must take account in Europe of the European CO2 emissions trading system, which has since 2005 constrained the CO2 emissions of five major industrial sectors, representing around 50 % of European CO2 emissions. A market mechanism for carbon pricing has, then, to be made to co-exist with a fiscal pricing mechanism and, at the same time, European rules governing markets have to be made to converge with national rules on tax.
This article begins by assessing the operation of the European market in terms of transactions and prices. It shows the degree to which the overall scheme has evolved since its initial implementation period between 2005 and 2007, and reminds us of the implications of the move to auctioning that is planned for the third phase (2013-2020). The article then reviews the choices made by the different countries that have managed to run a national carbon tax alongside the European quota system. Going beyond the French case, it concludes by asking what are the most promising ways to extend carbon pricing in Europe.

Bibliography

Géopolitique - Institutions - Santé

« What Could Health and Health Care in the US Look Like in 2020 ? »

À quoi ressemblera la sécurité sociale aux États-Unis en 2020 ? Alors que la réforme visant à étendre la couverture sociale au sein de la population américaine vient d’être votée, l’Institute for the Future propose quatre scénarios pour les 10 prochaines années. Croissance : le boom de l’économie de la santé D’importantes avancées sont obtenues en biotechnologie et en génétique, permettant d’améliorer les traitements de nombreuses maladies. Les coûts d’accès aux soins ne diminuent pas mais ...

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CR table ronde

Géopolitique - Institutions

Les enjeux de la gouvernance mondiale

Face à la mondialisation croissante, donc à la montée des interdépendances et à la crise à la fois financière, économique, sociale et écologique actuelle, une véritable gouvernance mondiale paraît urgente. Or, l’Organisation des Nations Unies, dont les 192 pays membres disposent chacun d’une voix de poids égal, semble impuissante à prendre des décisions efficaces. Les initiatives récentes de « G7 » ou de « G20 » sont encore « en gestation incertaine », selon les termes d’Hugues de Jouvenel. La situation a vraisemblablement ...

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Revue

Géopolitique

Might it Not be Time to Wean Europe off America?On the Report Towards a Post-American Europe

It is time now for Europe to realize that the era of American hegemony is over and to act commensurately at the international level, argue Jeremy Shapiro and Nick Witney in their report, Towards a Post-American Europe, before going on to propose possible orientations for European foreign policy.
Bernard Cazes provides a short analysis of this report, which has been available on the Internet since November 2009, and stresses what a good job the authors have done of “forcing Europeans to face questions they are clearly reluctant to confront directly”.

Revue

Géopolitique

The Caribbean and its Prospects

At different times in its history, the Caribbean has been a strategic region — initially with the arrival of the first Europeans in the late fifteenth century, then, among other things, by its proximity to the Panama Canal and later as a result of the Cuban revolution. But for some years now it has played a less important role internationally.
However, as Viktor Sukup points out, “Russia’s recent rapprochement with Cuba and Venezuela and the increasing engagement of China in the region” suggest that the Caribbean still has strategic importance. In this context, he ponders the future of the area, a region hit hard by the global economic crisis and threatened by the effects of climate change.
To examine the question, Sukup reviews the general outlines of the history of the Caribbean countries and delineates their social, economic and political situations. He then offers a number of key suggestions that can help the region to meet the challenges of the twenty-first century, stressing particularly the need for the Caribbean states to establish closer regional cooperation, to open up to the rest of the world, to diversify and upgrade their main industry, which is tourism, to exploit other areas of activity, such as craftwork, agriculture, fishing etc. and to develop the production of renewable energy sources.

Tribune européenne

Géopolitique - Société, modes de vie

Minarets, Switzerland and Europe

In late November 2009, the Swiss voted in a referendum to ban the construction of new minarets on their territory. That event, Jean-François Drevet reminds us, may be interpreted as an “[alarm] signal to the whole of Europe”, which still has “complex and uncertain relations with its Muslims and the [largely Muslim] countries on its eastern and southern periphery”.
In this context, Drevet asks what led the Swiss people to vote as they did, in order to draw significant lessons at the European level. He then reflects on the dimension to be accorded to religion and, more specifically, Islam, in the European Union’s foreign relations.

Analyse prospective

Géopolitique - Institutions

Quels avenirs pour les organisations interétatiques mondiales ?

L’intensification de la mondialisation et les problèmes qui émergent de ce phénomène de grande ampleur entraînent depuis quelques années des réflexions sur l’architecture des organisations interétatiques qui seraient nécessaires, à l’échelle mondiale, pour maîtriser ces nouveaux défis. Plusieurs initiatives et de nombreuses propositions peuvent déjà être mentionnées. Mais pour s’interroger sur l’avenir dans ce domaine, trois étapes préalables sont indispensables. La première concerne le passé de ces organisations, en distinguant les institutions créées avant la ...

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Note de veille

Géopolitique - Ressources naturelles, énergie, environnement

La fonte de l’Arctique attise les convoitises

La fonte des glaces constatée en Arctique a des conséquences directes sur l’accès aux routes maritimes et aux ressources naturelles. Des climatologues estiment qu’en 2030, la fonte des glaces aura libéré les détroits de l’Arctique canadien de leurs glaces durant l’été. L’ouverture des passages pourrait permettre une exploitation commerciale des importants gisements d’hydrocarbures (mais aussi de métaux et de diamants), ainsi que l’établissement d’une route commerciale stratégique entre le Pacifique et l ...

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Tribune européenne

Économie, emploi - Géopolitique

What Future for the Euro after Eleven Years?

The euro is eleven years old on 1 January 2010. In recognition of this fact, Jean-François Drevet analyses here the effects of the single currency since its creation on the economies and public finances of the EU member states within the euro zone. He begins by pointing out the protective, stabilizing function of the euro by comparison with national currencies, particular in times of economic crisis. But he goes on to stress the disadvantages of a strong euro and to emphasize the need to “bolster its effectiveness, so that it does not delay the emergence from crisis”. Among other things, Jean-François Drevet advocates increased powers for the European Central Bank, better economic policy cohesion between EU member states and the establishment of a more pro-active common policy.

Bibliography

Économie, emploi - Géopolitique

Lions on the Move : The Progress and Potential of African Economies

Entre 2000 et 2008, le PIB (produit intérieur brut) de l?Afrique a augmenté, en moyenne de 4,9 % par an, soit deux fois plus vite qu?au cours des années 1980 et 1990. Cependant, le PIB enregistré par le continent en 2008 équivaut à peine à celui du Brésil. Bien que rapide, la croissance économique reste en effet fragile, et insuffisante pour lutter contre la pauvreté et les maladies qui touchent la majorité des populations. La hausse des prix ...

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Bibliography

Économie, emploi - Géopolitique

Rapport sur la mondialisation de la criminalité. Évaluation de la menace posée par la criminalité transnationale organisée

L?ONUDC a publié en 2010 le premier rapport global d?évaluation de la menace posée par la criminalité transnationale organisée (CTO), qui englobe les infractions transnationales graves commises par trois personnes ou plus, pour en tirer un avantage matériel, au sens de la Convention contre la criminalité transnationale organisée, adoptée en 2000 et entrée en vigueur en 2003. En l?absence d?études exhaustives sur le sujet, le rapport de l?ONUDC vise à combler un vide existant dans ...

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Bibliography

Géopolitique

The GCC in 2020 : Resources for the Future

Au cours de la prochaine décennie, les pays du Golfe (Qatar, Émirats arabes unis, Koweït, Bahreïn, Arabie Saoudite et Oman) pourraient être confrontés à des défis majeurs pour s’approvisionner en eau, en énergie et en matières premières agricoles, d’après cette étude réalisée par l’Intelligence Unit du magazine The Economist. Entre 2000 et 2020, la population du Golfe persique pourrait augmenter de 30 %, pour atteindre 50 millions de personnes. Au cours de la même période, le PIB (produit ...

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Bibliography

Géopolitique - Ressources naturelles, énergie, environnement

Update of Analysis of Prospects in the Scenar 2020 Study. Preparing for Change

Cette étude de la Commission européenne constitue une actualisation de travaux réalisés en 2006. Elle envisage trois scénarios pour l’agriculture européenne à l’horizon 2020. Dans le scénario de référence, le budget européen consacré à l’agriculture diminue progressivement et le deuxième pilier de la PAC (Politique agricole commune), lié au développement rural, est privilégié par rapport au premier, le soutien au marché. Le nombre d’exploitations diminuerait d’un tiers entre 2005 et 2020. Dans le scénario « conservateur ...

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Chapitre Géopolitique

Ce chapitre est extrait du Rapport Vigie 2016 de Futuribles International, qui propose un panorama structuré des connaissances et des incertitudes des experts que l'association a mobilisés pour explorer les évolutions des 15 à 35 prochaines années sur 11 thématiques.