Géopolitique

Cette page regroupe l'ensemble des publications de Futuribles sur cette thématique (Vigie, revue, bibliographie, études, etc.)

Tribune européenne

Géopolitique

Moldavia at the Gates of Europe

When possibilities of a future enlargement of the European Union are mentioned, it is mainly the Balkan or former Soviet countries that come to mind. Among these, Moldavia occupies a special place, being torn both geographically and politically between Romania (now a member of the Union) and Russia. Jean-François Drevet outlines the atypical profile of this extremely poor East European country, a great many of whose inhabitants could shortly acquire Romanian nationality (and hence European rights and duties), even though their own state is not a member of the Union. He also shows the geopolitical issue it poses in relations with Russia by virtue of the existence of the self-proclaimed Moldavian republic of Transnistria, which enjoys protection from Moscow.

Revue

Géopolitique - Ressources naturelles, énergie, environnement

Focus on IAASTD. An International Assessment of Agricultural Sciences and Technologies for Development

It was the aim of IAASTD (International Assessment of Agricultural Science, Knowledge and Technology for Development), a programme initiated and led between 2005 and 2008 by the World Bank and a number of United Nations agencies, to assess the future contribution of agricultural research and technologies to the Millennium development objectives. Fifty-seven governments were involved, together with many development actors and representatives of the agricultural and agrifood sectors, the academic world and civil society.

This innovative, cross-disciplinary study marked an important paradigm shift, representing a broad consensus among the experts to the effect that agriculture is multi-functional and multi-factorial; that it requires approaches that take account of the specific contexts in which it is carried out, involving all the players in the supply chain and having regard to local forms of knowledge. This new paradigm, which marks a retreat from reductive, universal solutions, offers diverse options for action.

Beyond questions of the quantity of knowledge accumulated and its limitations, IAASTD marks a decisive development that the various actors must now take on board. This is what is demonstrated here by Marie-Aude Even, who lead a collective study of IAASTD for the Foresight and Assessment Vice-Directorate of the French Ministry of Agriculture, doing so within the framework of an Analysis Note, which Futuribles takes up in this article.

Note de veille

Géopolitique - Recherche, sciences, techniques

La maîtrise de l’information, dernière arme stratégique en « AfPak » ?

Alors que la situation continue de s’enliser en AfPak (la zone Afghanistan-Pakistan), les États-Unis préconisent une nouvelle stratégie. Désormais, le chemin vers la victoire passe par la maîtrise de la primauté de l’information et la circulation de celle-ci, une idée déjà présente dans le dernier rapport sur la transformation de l’armée américaine (1). La route s’annonce cependant longue au vu de l’importance des systèmes de communication mis en place par les Talibans en Afghanistan tout ...

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Note de veille

Géopolitique - Institutions - Ressources naturelles, énergie, environnement

Réfugiés environnementaux : pourquoi les reconnaître ?

Les migrations liées au réchauffement climatique croissent et pourraient concerner des millions de personnes dans les années à venir. Or, pour l’instant, ces migrants ne relèvent d’aucun statut.

Futurs d'antan

Géopolitique - Ressources naturelles, énergie, environnement

Our Plundered Planet (1948)

The book from which this article is taken was published in 1948 (Boston: Little Brown), when the world was still binding the wounds of the Second World War. Albert Einstein commented that, “reading it, one feels very keenly how futile most of our political quarrels are compared with the base realities of life.”
The author, Fairfield Osborn Jr., was the son of a great American palaeontologist and was himself an eminent naturalist and president of the New York Zoological Society, which, changing its name to the Wildlife Conservation Society, became an important non-governmental organization for nature conservancy.
The work displays an awareness of the general problem posed by mankind’s cohabitation with the other forms of life that populate the planet. It pre-dates Rachel Carson’s famous Silent Spring by 14 years.
Unlike most contemporary authors, Osborn foregrounds the demographic phenomenon, the teeming upon the planet of those he calls “the children of the Earth”. He then raises the problem of war, noting that it is what characterizes humanity, if it is not to descend to what he calls “the inferior forms of animal life” such as ants, but he condemns the idea – all ethical considerations apart – that war could be a tool for regulating world population. In characterizing human action as “a new geological force”, he anticipates the neologism proposed by Paul Crutzen to characterize our age: the “anthropocene”.
Some parts of the present picture are, of course, absent from his account, either because their importance was not then recognized, such as greenhouse-gas-induced climate change, or because the threat they represented was as yet too distant, such as the exhaustion of oil reserves. But others are lucidly identified, such as globalization, which had not yet reached the intensity that it has today, and which makes every nation “more or less dependent on every other”, and the problems of food resources, which bring us up against the limits of productive land, for man feeds only on living matter.
As a result, he comes to the conclusion that, whatever progress is achieved, technology will not avert the need for a thoroughgoing transformation of our collective behaviour, in order to achieve a sustainable balance with nature.

Forum

Géopolitique - Société, modes de vie

Islam, Democracy and Development. The Limits to Explanation in Religious Terms

Arabs are often seen solely in terms of their Islamic identity and the religious argument is used too often to explain the misdevelopment of the Arab countries. Yet, as Pierre Blanc stresses here, to equate the Arabs with their religion is to short-circuit the analysis. In the areas of demographic trends, economic development and democratic progress, the limitations of such reasoning can be seen from the figures and from a range of counter-examples. More and more Arab countries have begun, or have even completed, their demographic transition and many of them have rates of economic growth that are the envy of their European neighbours. Admittedly, where governance is concerned there is ground still to be made up, but even some movements of political Islam (in Palestine, Lebanon and Turkey) are returning to democratic ways. Ultimately, concludes Pierre Blanc, there are no reasons for regarding Islam as the key determinant of the developments in – or the difficulties of – the Arab region.

Tribune européenne

Géopolitique - Société, modes de vie

Europe and its Muslims

Given the most recent enlargements of the European Union and the currently pending candidatures (particularly that of Turkey), the borders of the Union now adjoin the southern and eastern Mediterranean, the Middle East and Central Asia – all of them areas in which the religion of Islam is dominant. Even within its borders, the Muslim community is growing with the various waves of migration and the generational renewal of existing immigrants, but the relations between the nationals of the member states and the Muslims living in them bear the clear stamp of reciprocal mistrust and discrimination. How does the situation stand precisely? Jean-François Drevet offers a brief assessment here of these relations between Europeans and Europe’s Muslims and the prospects for their future development.

Note de veille

Géopolitique

Yémen : le prochain Afghanistan ?

Depuis 2007, le Yémen ne cesse de gagner des places dans le Failed States Index, le classement des États les plus défaillants réalisé chaque année par la revue Foreign Policy, en association avec le think-tank Fund for Peace. Il est ainsi classé 18e dans l’édition 2009 et cette situation inquiète tant ses voisins que les États-Unis et ses propres dirigeants.

Note de veille

Géopolitique - Ressources naturelles, énergie, environnement

Le prochain défi du Pakistan

D’ici 25 ans, la fonte des glaciers due au réchauffement climatique pourrait devenir un problème majeur pour le Pakistan, et son épicentre se situera dans la région du Cachemire.

Note de veille

Économie, emploi - Géopolitique - Institutions

L’Union des nations sud-américaines : quelles perspectives ?

À l’occasion du premier anniversaire de l’Union des nations sud-américaines (UNASUR), sa présidence tournante change en juin 2009. Le président équatorien Rafael Correa remplace ainsi la présidente chilienne Michelle Bachelet. Cette succession arrive alors que la jeune UNASUR peine à se développer et que son futur président apparaît d’ores et déjà comme une personnalité moins consensuelle que son prédécesseur, notamment en raison de son alliance avec le Vénézuélien Hugo Chavez et le Bolivien Evo Morales au sein ...

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Futurs d'antan

Géopolitique

A 200-Year Scenario. Revisiting the Hudson Institute Report of 1976

A little over 30 years ago, the famous futurologist and founder of the Hudson Institute, Herman Kahn and two of his colleagues, William Brown and Leon Martel, published The Next 200 Years: A Scenario for America and the World (New York: William Morrow & Co. Inc., 1976), a foresight study which they intended would provide a visionary, resolutely optimistic account of the development of the USA and the world, partly in response to the wave of more pessimistic (and distinctly less free-market) thinking in favour of "zero growth". Pierre Bonnaure has re-read this 200-year scenario for Futuribles.
After recalling the context in which these studies were produced, he outlines the main arguments and trends laid out in them, resituating these in light of the developments that have since occurred and with regard to contemporary scientific forecasts. In this way, he shows that the report very properly identified a number of future challenges which, in many cases, still face us today. On the other hand, he draws attention to the excessive faith the authors vested in the capacities of scientific and technical progress to respond to these challenges.

Analyse prospective

Géopolitique

L’Asie du Sud s’embrase-t-elle ?

L’Asie du Sud, confrontée comme le reste du monde à la crise économique, souffre, en plus, d’une détérioration sensible de la situation sécuritaire. Les États les plus grands et les plus peuplés de la région, c’est-à-dire l’Inde, le Pakistan et le Bangladesh, sont agités par des mouvements insurrectionnels et militants très violents. Le Népal reste fragile après l’arrivée au pouvoir en 2008 des ex-insurgés maoïstes, suite à des élections législatives tenues dans des conditions à ...

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Note de veille

Géopolitique - Ressources naturelles, énergie, environnement

Exploitation de terres africaines par des pays étrangers : danger ou opportunité ?

Depuis quelques années, un nombre croissant de pays, principalement asiatiques, trouvent dans l’exploitation de terres agricoles étrangères une réponse à leurs préoccupations concernant leur approvisionnement alimentaire (1). Une étude conjointe de la FAO (Food and Agriculture Organization) et de l’IIED (Institut international de l’environnement et du développement) aide à comprendre l’ampleur de ce phénomène, ses mécanismes et ses implications dans cinq pays africains (Mali, Madagascar, Soudan, Ghana et Éthiopie). Surtout, elle révèle que les cessions de ...

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Note de veille

Économie, emploi - Géopolitique

Amérique latine / Moyen-Orient : quel rapprochement ?

Visites officielles, partenariats commerciaux, agricoles et financiers marquent, depuis peu, un rapprochement entre deux régions du Sud, l’Amérique du Sud et le Moyen-Orient au sens large. L’objectif commun et affiché de promouvoir un monde multipolaire semble passer par une coopération avant tout économique.

Revue

Géopolitique

Maritime Piracy in Perspective

Acts of piracy have made a significant media impact in France recently, following attacks on several vessels, particularly in the Gulf of Aden, with both commercial shipping and private yachts being targeted. Acts of piracy are, in fact, on the increase in various sea areas (e.g. to the East of Somalia). Why this new upsurge? What has been the impact on the maritime world and how is it to face up to this threat?
Cédric Prévost, who has made a study of the question, assesses the state of maritime piracy and outlines the possible trends developing within it. After reviewing the factors which contribute to the development of piracy (sea traffic, lack of security at sea, the fragility of certain states, poverty etc.), he highlights the major issues surrounding this "low-intensity threat". He first reminds us that this is a risk the shipping companies regard as low, by comparison with the many others they have to manage, even though the security of energy supplies (which is potentially threatened) may change matters in that regard. He recalls also that piracy can be seen as part of a wider circle of criminal activities playing a part in the destabilization of certain regions. In this sense, the phenomenon could spread as a result of the emergence of "career pirates". Lastly, he proposes a series of possible responses to the threat - fighting it at sea, international cooperation, improving maritime security - and ends by casting particular light on the question with respect to France.

Note de veille

Géopolitique - Population

Évolution des migrations subsahariennes

Le nombre d’immigrés (1) d’origine subsaharienne en France a été multiplié par 27 en 40 ans, pourtant cette immigration reste très faible : voilà le constat que dressent deux chercheurs de l’Institut national d’études démographiques (INED). Cette immigration pourrait cependant connaître des transformations fortes et peut-être durables.

Note de veille

Géopolitique - Ressources naturelles, énergie, environnement

La reconquête du Kirghizistan par la Russie

La décision du président kirghize, Kourmanbek Bakiev, de fermer la base militaire aérienne de Manas, utilisée depuis 2001 par les États-Unis, cache une lutte d'influence entre les États-Unis et la Russie, dont la dernière manche vient d'être remportée par Moscou. Depuis et en moins de trois mois, K. Bakiev, aidé par le Kremlin, a fait de nombreux choix qui pourraient s'avérer lourds de conséquences pour la démocratie, les relations internationales et l'environnement du Kirghizistan. Les élections ...

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Note de veille

Géopolitique

La Chine dans les opérations de maintien de la paix de l’ONU

Le rôle de la Chine dans les opérations de maintien de la paix (OMP) a considérablement évolué depuis son entrée dans l'Organisation des Nations unies (ONU), transformant son influence dans le monde. Deux notes de l'International Crisis Group (ICG) et du Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI) mettent en évidence cette évolution.

Revue

Géopolitique

A Vision of Europe: Cosmopolitanism. On the Work of Ulrich Beck

The German sociologist Ulrich Beck is one of the leading contemporary thinkers on the question of modernity. Alongside his key studies of "risk society" in the 1980s, he has won acclaim in recent years for his thinking on globalization and its impact on modern societies. As an advocate of a political cosmopolitanism (he favours the creation of supranational institutions such as a world parliament), Beck has campaigned for a very high degree of European integration, which might serve as basis or model for a "cosmopolitan empire". He asserts this very clearly in his most recent work, co-written with Edgar Grande, which in English bears precisely this title: Cosmopolitan Empire (Cambridge: Polity, 2007). It is reviewed here by Antoine Tillie, who also casts a wider eye over Beck's earlier works (on globalization, cosmopolitanism, democracy etc.).

Bibliography

Géopolitique

« Europa 2030 : Le jardin de Candide » ; « Europa 2030 : Direction le nouveau Moyen-Âge »

Lors des récentes élections européennes s?est beaucoup posée la question du devenir de l?Europe. La revue Internationale Politik propose deux scénarios différents pour une image de l?Europe en 2030. Wolfram Eilenberger, correspondant du magazine politique allemand Cicero, propose un premier article dans lequel il envisage l?Europe en 2030 comme « le jardin de Candide ». Selon lui, le principe moteur de l?évolution de l?Europe d?ici à 2030 va être le manque de plus en plus ...

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Bibliography

Géopolitique - Ressources naturelles, énergie, environnement

« La réforme de la PAC au-delà de 2013. Une vision à plus long terme »

La PAC (politique agricole commune) européenne fait régulièrement l’objet de réformes plus ou moins profondes. La dernière en date a eu lieu en 2008 mais, selon Jean-Christophe Bureau et Louis-Pascal Mahé, il ne s’agissait que d’ajustements marginaux. Selon eux, lors de la prochaine réforme, en 2013, c’est un réexamen des objectifs et des principes fondateurs de cette politique qu’il serait souhaitable d’organiser. Selon les auteurs, les récentes évolutions du contexte européen et international, ainsi ...

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CR table ronde

Géopolitique - Société, modes de vie

Penser le XXIe siècle

L'ouvrage, intitulé originellement "Penser le XXIe siècle", a en grande partie été écrit avant la crise économique. Il a pour but de déterminer et d'élaborer un certain nombre de concepts et de structures adaptées à une pensée du siècle à venir.

Note de veille

Géopolitique - Institutions

La prospective, outil de refondation du partenariat américano-russe

Des experts américains et russes veulent s'appuyer sur une démarche de construction de scénarios pour manifester l'intérêt de leurs deux pays à s'engager dans des coopérations dans les domaines énergétique, financier, environnemental.

Tribune européenne

Géopolitique

The Expansion of the Union at a Standstill?

Since the official entry of Romania and Bulgaria in 2007, the European Union has had 27 members. Other countries are in contention to join the European Community, some of them, like Turkey, having been so for quite a long time. Nevertheless, the process of enlargement of the European Union seems to be marking time, and this is attributable as much to the candidate countries (Turkey, the Balkan states etc.), whose resolve to conform to European requirements is not always very convincing, as it is to the member states. Jean-François Drevet assesses where the enlargement process stands at the moment, identifying the obstacles that lie in its way and the prospects for further development. He also shows that, following the upheavals produced by the financial crisis of Autumn 2008, some countries could, with a high probability of success, add themselves to the list of potential candidates (Iceland and Norway, for example).

Chapitre Géopolitique

Ce chapitre est extrait du Rapport Vigie 2016 de Futuribles International, qui propose un panorama structuré des connaissances et des incertitudes des experts que l'association a mobilisés pour explorer les évolutions des 15 à 35 prochaines années sur 11 thématiques.