Cette page regroupe l'ensemble des publications de Futuribles sur cette thématique (Vigie, revue, bibliographie, études, etc.)
En Tunisie, la révolution du 14 janvier 2011 a soulevé beaucoup d’espoirs auprès de ceux qui ont scandé les mots d’ordre « liberté » et « dignité ». Plus d’un an après, les évolutions à venir du pays restent marquées par de grandes incertitudes caractérisées par la cohabitation d’une majorité islamiste et d’une société civile jalouse de ses libertés.
Dans cet exposé Pascal Boniface s’attache à identifier les ruptures survenues dans le domaine des relations internationales depuis la deuxième moitié du XXe siècle : il fait le point sur la méthode à adopter pour faire de la prospective dans le domaine de la géopolitique. Puis, il met en lumière les principaux enjeux qui pourraient avoir une importance cruciale pour la communauté internationale à plus ou moins long terme.
The vulnerability of developed societies is not a new notion and has been very clearly set out by, among others, Ulrich Beck. It does, however, acquire new meaning with the increasing extension and interconnection of real and virtual networks. For example, electrical and digital networks play a part today in the operation of almost all other critical infrastructures and systems. This underlines their importance and the issue that protecting them represents in most countries. As Pierre Bonnaure shows here, the Internet is subject to frequent attacks and cyberthreats are increasing, emanating as they do from “hackers” with very varied objectives, whose actions may have major consequences.
Outlining the risks of a cyberwar, Bonnaure shows the strategic character of the battle against cyberthreats and the way people are beginning to face up to them in most of the countries affected by the phenomenon. It is highly improbable that any country will be able to forearm itself totally against cyberthreats and the system risks that ensue from them, but the ability to identify them and fight them when they do become reality is, most certainly, a significant strategic asset.
Since the creation of the European Community in 1957, the construction of Europe has largely been down to Franco-German cooperation and the capacity of those two countries to overcome their differences to advance the economic and political integration of the continent. However, Jean-François Drevet tells us, this “exemplary cooperation” seems to be running up against its limits in the current context of crisis and excessive indebtedness of the states of Europe. For it is clear that Germany, which made sacrifices to overcome the cost of reunification in the 1990s, intends that today’s debt-distressed European states will do the same, so as not to drag down the entire European edifice with them in their (potential) fall. France, not greatly attracted by the budgetary conception its Rhenish neighbour has of the Union, would prefer the option of a European “economic governance”, allowing considerable scope for the inter-governmental element. However, its economic and budgetary situation, which is far worse than that of Germany, hardly puts it in a position of strength. It is hence a sound bet, concludes Drevet, that the Union will only be able to get out of the economic and political impasse in which it finds itself through an evolution towards federalism inspired by the Rhenish model.
Les tensions récentes autour des îles Malouines font resurgir le souvenir d’une guerre vieille de 30 ans. Mais le conflit n’a plus le même visage et ses enjeux ont évolué. À l’heure des nouvelles alliances latino-américaines, l’Argentine n’est plus la seule à défier la Grande-Bretagne sur cette épineuse question.
C’est le 10 mai prochain que les Algériens se déplaceront aux urnes pour élire une nouvelle Assemblée populaire nationale (APN). Initialement prévue en juin voire pour l’automne, cette élection législative a été annoncée début février par Abdelaziz Bouteflika lors d’un discours radiotélévisé. Le président algérien a précisé que le scrutin se déroulerait en un seul tour tandis que, quelques jours plus tard, un conseil des ministres décidait que le nombre de députés de l’APN passerait de ...
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As a result of the dramatic social consequences they produce, periods of economic crisis are – as history shows – often springboards for the rise of various forms of extremism and of inward-looking movements. It is reassuring, then, to see governments in Europe currently striving to stand together and attempt to face up collectively to the economic setbacks affecting most European countries. Just a few decades ago, national conflicts and resentments were so rooted in people’s minds that, at that time, such cooperation would have been unimaginable. That it exists attests to the work done since World War II to calm those tensions and enable a common reading of recent European history to emerge.
Jean-François Drevet brings this out clearly in this column, so as to forewarn those in Europe – or at the gates of Europe – who might be tempted by a form of historical falsification. After reminding readers briefly of what such falsifications of history have led to in Europe and of the emergence of a more calmly conceived history, he turns to various clarifications he regards as necessary in this area. These relate particularly to two countries which are tempted by a rather skewed reading of their national histories: Hungary and Turkey. He concludes on the importance of every country “coming to terms” with its national history, so that it is not endlessly carrying a hostile baggage that is out of phase with a united Europe.
In this special issue of Futuribles devoted to genetically modified organisms, Marcel Kuntz and Agnès Ricroch offer a review of the situation regarding biotechnological plants and their socio-economic prospects. After reminding us of the agricultural (and food) challenges our planet will face by the middle of the century, they outline the possible contributions of transgenics to overcoming them (resistance to various kinds of stress, improvement of yields, nutritional contributions), particularly in the developing countries. They go on to stress the advantages of transgenics in the fields of industry (agrofuels) and pharmaceuticals (biosynthesis of proteins and enzymes for therapeutic purposes).
Kuntz and Ricroch then come to a more political strand of argument: the political and regulatory constraints on the development of GMOs in Europe (and, in particular, France). They criticize, for example, the destructions carried out by certain anti-GM movements, and over-cautiousness in the political decisions and regulation that eventually led to the enduring sidelining of French and European players in the plant biotechnology sector. This situation is, in their view, highly damaging and synonymous with scientific and technical defeat. And the means for overcoming it, such as gaining the confidence of public opinion in the field through better information and publicity campaigns directed more at the benefits inherent in the technologies than the risks, have hardly been successful.
« Le Maroc sera islamiste (sauf miracle….ou petit tour de passe-passe du Palais) ». Tel était le titre de la première page de l’hebdomadaire Telquel (numéro 497) publié au Maroc, la semaine précédant la consultation électorale du 25 novembre 2011. Ce numéro annonçait la victoire probable du Parti de la justice et du développement (PJD) et l’appel par le Roi à son leader Abdelilah Benkirane pour diriger le gouvernement était envisagé. Quelles analyses peut-on faire a posteriori de cette ...
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Convoqué le 5 février 2012 à Caracas, le sommet de l’Alliance bolivarienne pour les peuples de notre Amérique (ALBA) a encore affermi les liens entre les huit pays membres qui la composent. Union douanière, mais aussi énergétique en vertu de l’accord PetroCaribe (autorisant l’exportation du pétrole vénézuélien à des tarifs préférentiels dans les pays concernés et quelques autres de la zone), l’ALBA disposera bientôt d’une banque centrale. Au cours de ce dernier sommet, son armature ...
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It was just over a year ago that the popular revolts in Tunisia and Egypt began which were to lead to the fall of the two major authoritarian regimes in North Africa and cause other peoples (the Libyans and the Syrians) to rise up in turn against the dictatorships in place there. Much was expected of that “Arab Spring”, supported as it was by various European countries (including France) – not least the establishment of genuine democracies in the countries concerned. However, democracy cannot be established by decree and democratic elections may bring to power leaders who are not greatly inclined to respect it. Is this what we are in danger of seeing in the countries of the southern Mediterranean, where the first democratic votes seem to be paving the way for Islamic regimes that might radicalize to a degree that is as yet unclear?
Jean-François Drevet raises that question here, briefly examining the situation of those Arab countries with links to the European Union and the prospects for the Islamists of developing their influence in those countries. Lastly, he shows how the new political situation in that region could change the Union’s diplomatic relations with those countries and particularly how the Union could attempt to forestall excessively radical developments.
For some months now, the European Union has been facing an economic and financial crisis in which the challenge to the member states has been to find the means to bolster the economic governance of the eurozone. If they fail to do so, the monetary union that has been in existence for some 10 years might hit the buffers. There have been ever more European summits and Franco-German meetings aimed at finding a way out of the Greek crisis and, more generally, a solution to the general destabilization of the European financial system, but ultimately, as Frédéric Allemand shows here, they are hardly proposing anything more than was advocated in the Werner Report of 1970. That report had, in fact, drawn up a particularly far-sighted “plan for achieving economic and monetary union by stages.” However, for want of genuine political support at the time, it was not carried through.
Economic and monetary union was, indeed, established by the Maastricht Treaty in the 1990s, but the union provided was of a minimal kind and did not follow the recommendations proposed by the Werner Report, of which Frédéric Allemand reminds us here. As a result, monetary integration was implemented without economic integration, and particularly without the establishment of a “decision-making centre for economic policy” that would be responsible to the European Parliament and enforce strict control of national budgetary policies. Now that the facts have cruelly shown up the failings that ensued from the omission of such a central structure, perhaps Europe’s leaders will at last get back to fundamentals and, wittingly or otherwise, see through the various stages of the Werner Plan…
The popular uprising in Syria began almost a year ago in the wake of the wave of hope produced by the “Arab springs” in Egypt, Tunisia and Libya. But the Syrian government is a hardier beast than its North African counterparts. Possessing armed and administrative services still very loyal to president Bashar al-Assad, it bloodily represses the regular demonstrations of opponents calling for regime change. The international community, including the Arab League, has been trying for months to put pressure on Bashar al-Assad to end this repression and give way to some popular demands. Nothing has come of this. In this context, what might the prospects be for this country, whose role and influence remain central in the Middle East?
Olivier Marty examines the question, beginning with the salient features of the current regime: the legacy of Hafez al-Assad, attempts at internal modernization, and a stifled society with no room left for manoeuvre in a context of growing communal tension. He goes on to demonstrate how Syria has positioned itself over time internationally – and, particularly, in terms of its alliances – and to show its still essential role in that highly troubled region of the Middle East. Lastly, Olivier Marty sketches out what the scenarios might be for overcoming the crisis in Syria, though here he inclines more towards the view that the situation is likely to deteriorate (on account, among other things, of the difficulties the international community would have in intervening militarily), with the bolstering of financial sanctions and political support for the opposition. In this connection, he specifies the roles of the various states involved in the management of the crisis – Turkey, Russia, Europe, USA etc.
If, as this article suggests, there is still a high risk of political stalemate, let us hope for the sake of Syrian civilians that it does not last long.
Alors que les pays européens réfléchissent à des solutions fiscales et douanières pour favoriser leurs productions locales, les pays d’Amérique du Sud, eux, multiplient depuis plusieurs années déjà les mesures protectionnistes. L’Argentine se distingue particulièrement dans ce domaine, car le gouvernement considère que le protectionnisme est nécessaire à la sauvegarde de l’industrie du pays.
The economic and financial crisis raging since 2008 has, in recent months, brought the European Union up against its contradictions and shown how difficult, if not impossible, it is to cope with the economic difficulties that beset the Euro zone unless we press on further with the political integration of the region. Though it goes back more than 50 years, the construction of Europe has been at a standstill for a decade or so now. Let us not forget, however, that the EU has succeeded in bringing peace to a continent that had previously seen centuries of warfare. This is no small achievement and doubtless the Duke of Sully, who, as early as the 17th century – and at the height of the Thirty Years’ War – dreamt of a peaceful European Confederation, would have been happy with the outcome. At the end of his life, this famous French statesman drafted a plan aimed at establishing a “very Christian republic” federated around 15 major European nations, so that the peoples of Europe might live together and enjoy enormous power. It is a plan we should re-read if we wish to understand that the aspiration to create a European Union was neither new nor easy to achieve.
Gérard Blanc has re-discovered this plan and here outlines its aims, the nations concerned, the forms of political organization envisaged and many other elements that refer, in certain cases, to what are still topical issues for the European Union as it exists at the dawn of the 21st century.
As has been said in this European column and in many other publications in recent months, the current economic crisis – particularly the sovereign debt crisis – has brought the European Union up against its limits. It is, in fact, very difficult to take the decisions that are required at the economic level without efficient authorities of governance. With 27 members and a system of decision-making that requires unanimity for matters of “vital interest” (the definition of which may differ substantially from one country to another and stray far from the general interest of the European Community as a whole), the Union hardly possesses the political means to fulfil its ambitions. This is what Jean-François Drevet shows here, reminding us of the EU’s decision-making system, the way it was constructed and the limitations it has experienced over many years. It is a system urgently in need of reform – without doubt towards a more federal mode of operation.
Ce Rapport Vigie est l’édition 2012 du rapport annuel du système Vigie. Ce dispositif de l’association Futuribles International a pour ambition de fournir à ses membres des analyses prospectives qui éclairent le champ des futurs possibles dans 15 domaines. Le Rapport Vigie 2010 proposait un panorama de tendances lourdes et d’incertitudes majeures pour chacun de ces domaines à l’horizon 2020-2030. Il nous est apparu utile de reprendre ce rapport, de le réexaminer, de l’actualiser et ...
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Tendance 1. Crispations géopolitiques en Méditerranée Tendance 2. Montée en puissance de l’islam politique en Méditerranée Tendance 3. Fracture hydraulique et foncière en Méditerranée Tendance 4. Fracture et insécurité économiques en Méditerranée Tendance 5. L’affirmation des sociétés arabes
Tendance 1. Poursuite de la transition démographique en Afrique Tendance 2. Le retour de la croissance économique africaine Tendance 3. Les équilibres africains menacés par les défis environnementaux Tendance 4. Baisse incertaine de la conflictualité en Afrique Tendance 5. Essor de deux religiosités jumelles au sud du Sahara
Tendance 1. Poids démographique croissant de l’Asie du Sud Tendance 2. Intégration économique croissante de l’Asie du Sud Tendance 3. La Chine puissance dominante en Asie du Sud-Est Tendance 4. Le rééquilibrage de l’économie chinoise Tendance 5. En Inde, croissance économique et pauvreté persistante Tendance 6. Poursuite de la stratégie d’expansion chinoise Tendance 7. Consolidation de l’alliance nippo-américaine face à la Chine
Tendance 1. Amérique latine, la fin relative du « pré carré » des États-Unis Tendance 2. Le Brésil, un nouveau modèle de puissance Tendance 3. Le continent latino-américain ébranlé par le narcotrafic Tendance 4. « Révolutions sud-américaines », des gauches divergentes
Tendance 1. Diminution de la conflictualité dans le monde Tendance 2. Vers un rééquilibrage mondial de la puissance Tendance 3. Vers un monde nucléaire multipolaire Tendance 4. Persistance et mutations du terrorisme
Tendance 1. Une Europe à géométrie variable Tendance 2. Une zone euro au bord de l’implosion Tendance 3. L’Union européenne en proie aux replis nationalistes Tendance 4. Pas de sécurisation des importations énergétiques de l’UE Tendance 5. Une voix commune européenne balbutiante Tendance 6. Relations incertaines de l’UE avec son voisinage oriental Tendance 7. Renforcement de la solidarité transatlantique Sources et ressources
Ce chapitre est extrait du Rapport Vigie 2016 de Futuribles International, qui propose un panorama structuré des connaissances et des incertitudes des experts que l'association a mobilisés pour explorer les évolutions des 15 à 35 prochaines années sur 11 thématiques.