Cette page regroupe l'ensemble des publications de Futuribles sur cette thématique (Vigie, revue, bibliographie, études, etc.)
Lancé à Bangkok en 1996, le Dialogue Asie-Europe ou ASEM (Asia-Europe Meeting) est un forum informel de dialogue qui regroupe d’une part la Commission européenne et les 27 pays membres de l’Union européenne, et d’autre part le secrétariat de l’Association des nations d’Asie du Sud-Est (ASEAN), les 10 pays membres de l’ASEAN (Birmanie, Brunei, Cambodge, Indonésie, Laos, Malaisie, Philippines, Singapour, Thaïlande, Viêt-nam), ainsi que la Chine, le Japon et la Corée du Sud (ASEAN ...
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In the current context of the “Arab springs” and the victory of the Islamist Ennahda Party at the elections held in late October 2011 in Tunisia, the situation in Turkey is attracting more and more interest. As we saw last month in these pages, this country situated at the boundary between East and West, which is secular and democratic and yet led by an Islamic government that has enjoyed broad popular support for almost ten years, is currently reclaiming its diplomatic independence and acquiring unprecedented regional and international scope. Does this mean Turkey is turning its back on Europe and looking toward the East? That seems highly unlikely, but it is clear, as Jean-François Drevet shows here, that the new foreign policy of Ankara has – and will have – important consequences for the relations between Turkey and the EU, and perhaps on its prospects of membership of the Union.
Apart from the longstanding difficulties posed by the Cyprus problem, the Turkish determination to give a religious dimension (in this case, an Islamic one) to its foreign policy could raise a new obstacle on the path to membership, as could the difficulties Ankara is experiencing in its attempt to eliminate all the problems from its relations with its neighbours (particularly, Israel, Greece or Armenia). And though Turkey may seem to Europeans like an important regional partner, we should not – provided that the country remains interested in joining the Union – fall into a policy of culpable indulgence towards it, akin to that long practised by the USA.
Lancé à Bangkok en 1996, le Dialogue Asie-Europe ou ASEM [Asia-Europe Meeting] est un forum informel de dialogue qui regroupe d'une part la Commission européenne et les 27 membres de l'Union européenne, et d'autre part le secrétariat de l'Association des nations d’Asie du Sud-Est (ASEAN), les dix pays membres de l’ASEAN (Birmanie, Brunei, Cambodge, Indonésie, Laos, Malaisie, Philippines, Singapour, Thaïlande, Viêt-nam), ainsi que la Chine, le Japon et la Corée du Sud (ASEAN+3 ...
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Le processus électoral a été entamé en Égypte, le 12 octobre 2011, par l’ouverture des candidatures aux parlementaires. Le processus révèle une réelle complexification du champ politique égyptien et se déroule dans un contexte gouvernemental fortement controversé. Le chaos sécuritaire, la persistance des problèmes sociaux et économiques, et le manque de conscience politique en toile de fond représentent des défis qui alourdissent les doutes sur l’avenir. Un tableau qui mérite cependant d’être nuancé.
« Ouvrons les yeux, s’écriait Jacques Delors le 18 août dernier, l’euro et l’Europe sont au bord du gouffre. Et pour ne pas tomber, le choix me paraît simple : soit les États membres acceptent la coopération économique renforcée que j’ai toujours réclamée, soit ils transfèrent des pouvoirs supplémentaires à l’Union. » Un mois plus tard, à l’issue de la réunion des ministres des Finances de la zone euro qui s’est tenue en Pologne, l’ancien ...
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The Maastricht Treaty that founded the European Union was signed in February 1992 and came into force in November 1993. It will soon celebrate its 20th anniversary. However, as Jean-François Drevet shows here, after a period of some ten years in which real progress towards European integration was made, the soufflé has since collapsed somewhat.
At a point when the Union faces one of the most serious crises it has known, this column takes stock of the three major pillars set in place by the Maastricht Treaty: monetary union, “internal” policy, and foreign and common security policy. In these three areas, the conclusion is the same: the Union is stagnating because it will not move to a higher stage, the stage of genuine European governance in the fields of economics, migration policy and diplomacy. Yet on paper Europe has equipped itself with the means to achieve its ambitions; it remains, then, for the leaders of the national governments to size up the issues confronting them today (at times violently) and opt for the only solution that seems logical – federal governance. Perhaps they will have to hit rock bottom before they realize that there is no other way to rise again. But then the European Union will acquire a wholly new stature.
The re-election in June 2011 of prime minister Recep Tayyip Erdo?an in Turkey, confirmed the rootedness in Turkish society of the AKP, the Islamic party that has commanded a majority in the country since 2002. It has to be said that the “Turkish model”, so often advocated by Western countries in the 20th century, has undergone major development and is arousing growing attention on the part of Turkey’s Arab neighbours. Given the geopolitical upheavals affecting North Africa and the Middle East for almost a year now, can this non-Arab border-nation between East and West, with its secular, democratic state led by an Islamic party enjoying broad popular support, become a source of regional inspiration ?
Jean Marcou examines this question within the framework of the series of articles on the Mediterranean initiated by Futuribles in 2011. He begins by reminding us how much the image of Turkey has changed in less than a century, with the “Turkish model” evolving from that of a modernized, secular Muslim country – which, despite a relatively flimsy layer of democracy and the domination of politics by the army, became an ally of the West – into a democracy asserting its Muslim identity and exercising an independent diplomacy. This has been a course of development that has left the country no longer an estranged “brother” to its Arab neighbours, but a power with renewed autonomy vis-à-vis the West and an example that might inspire those countries which have just emancipated themselves from the yoke of dictators. Quite clearly, as Jean Marcou reminds us, a number of internal ambiguities and difficulties remain, beginning with the Kurdish question, but the former “Sick Man of Europe” has undoubtedly become a key actor again in this region that stands the crossroads of Africa, Europe and Asia.
Au terme d’un long processus diplomatique au cours duquel il a cherché avec un certain succès à recueillir de nouvelles reconnaissances pour l’État palestinien, Mahmoud Abbas a demandé officiellement l’admission de la Palestine comme membre à part entière de l’ONU (Organisation des Nations unies). Cette demande formulée dans un discours devant l’Assemblée générale des Nations unies le 23 septembre 2011 a été déposée auprès du Secrétariat général pour être transmise au Conseil de sécurité, qui ...
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Qu’adviendra-t-il de la région méditerranéenne et des relations de l’Europe avec les pays du Sud et de l’Est méditerranéens (PSEM) après ce que l’on désigne comme « le printemps arabe », terme générique recouvrant des évolutions sociopolitiques sans doute différentes d’un pays à l’autre ? Nul assurément n’est à même de prévoir ce qui résultera du renversement en Tunisie du régime de Zine el-Abidine Ben Ali, en Égypte de celui de Hosni Moubarak, a fortiori de ...
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As a cradle of civilizations, the Mediterranean region has always been a source of fascination and played a major role in Europe commercially, culturally and geopolitically. Moreover, the countries of the southern and eastern rims of the Mediterranean are today seeing profound social and political upheavals that are likely also to affect the northern rim, making their futures uncertain, to say the least. In such a context, it becomes essential to have solid foresight analyses of the region.
Long before the Arab revolutions of spring 2011 began, the European Commission had launched a wide-ranging foresight exercise on the Mediterranean region up to the year 2030, entitled EuroMed-2030. This was driven by a group of 20 international experts and submitted its findings in December 2010. Domenico Rossetti di Valdalbero, Perla Srour-Gandon and Spela Majcen present the main lessons to be gleaned from the exercise here. After reviewing the major trends in the region (in demographic, economic, cultural, scientific, agricultural and energy terms), our authors stress the principal tensions and uncertainties that are likely to influence the future of the Mediterranean zone (socio-economic inequalities, democratic and reforming aspirations, tensions between hostile states, divergent views of Euro-Mediterranean cooperation etc.). From this starting point, they present the four transitional scenarios identified by EuroMed-2030 — “Managing Conflict”, “Engaging in Win-Win Projects”, “Deeper Economic Integration” and “Towards a EuroMed Community” – as well as various flagship initiatives and more concrete recommendations that may well accompany them.
In 2010 a book by the American historian Sean McMeekin, The Berlin-Baghdad Express: The Ottoman Empire and Germany’s Bid for World Power 1898-1918 (Cambridge [Mass.]: The Belknap Press of Harvard University Press, 2010) was published, telling the story of the Berlin-Baghdad railway in the early 20th century and its role in the political, economic and military strategy of the great powers at the time. In terms of subject matter, this work in a way represents, as Bernard Cazes argues, a corrective to a counterfactual developed by the writer John Buchan in his book Greenmantle of 1916 (Thirsk: House of Stratus, 2001; new edition). He presents some of its salient points here that will undoubtedly be of interest to geopolitics buffs, showing, in substance, how Germany, drawing on support from the Ottoman Empire, attempted to de-stabilize its enemies of the time by encouraging jihad in French and British colonies and Zionism in Russia – a strategy that would have paid off if the work on the Berlin-Baghdad railway had not fallen so far behind schedule.
With the economic and financial crisis on the one hand, and the regional instability caused by the Arab spring on the southern rim of the Mediterranean on the other, Europe finds itself faced with a particularly tricky geopolitical and economic context. Unfortunately, as Jean-François Drevet shows here, the more serious the situation has become, the less the member states of the European Union have provided themselves with the means to confront it jointly and hence, the lower their chances of success would seem to be.
This is attested, in particular, by the Union’s inability to establish a single command structure to manage the operations planned as part of the common defence and security policy, despite the fact that there is a consensus on this in public opinion in the various member states. Whereas the Union has, in theory, an adequate legal basis in this area and the political and technical means to implement it (through the High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy), in practice the member states continue to reason on a case-by-case basis in terms of their own interests. Europe is, in fact, very ill-equipped. It cannot depend indefinitely on the Atlantic Alliance to provide its defence and its options are seriously hobbled by the United Kingdom (of which the High Representative, who is supposed to embody the common external policy, is a national).
Above and beyond the concrete security problems potentially present in such a situation, this impasse is emblematic of the current operation of the Union, “dominated by the vagaries of a variable-geometry intergovernmental cooperation” that is still not properly facing up to present and future challenges.
Les mouvements populaires qui agitent le monde arabe prennent au Liban, toujours confronté aux contradictions structurelles qui sont les siennes, un tour particulier. Bien qu’étant le pays qui, en fait, en a été l’un des précurseurs en 2005, avec le « mouvement du 14 mars », des années de guerre civile ont, semble-t-il, calmé les ardeurs guerrières des plus belliqueux. Ce qui ne veut pas dire que la violence a disparu du paysage politique du pays, loin s’en faut ...
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In 2002 a monumental work by Philip Bobbitt, covering international relations over a very extensive period, was published simultaneously in the USA and the UK. The Shield of Achilles: War, Peace and the Course of History (New York/London: Alfred A. Knopf/Penguin Books, 2002) has not been translated into French. However, in the opinion of Jacques Lesourne, who has reviewed the book for Futuribles, it provides a very rewarding analysis of the relations between military strategy, the development of state-forms and the principles governing international relations. Beyond the retrospective deciphering of the long history of the world offered by Bobbitt (including, inter alia, the “epochal wars” that have studded the path of the elaboration of international law), the work offers a forward-looking perspective on the contemporary world’s broad developmental trends, developing three possible scenarios. Jacques Lesourne outlines these at the end of his analysis, showing ultimately that, in spite of a certain Americano-centrism, Bobbitt’s work is an important contribution to the analysis of the joint influences of state, military strategy and international relations, which is crucial for the assessment of future trends on the global stage.
Belarus, which faces serious economic problems and has been ruled with a rod of iron by a dictator-president in power since 1994, is, like Ukraine, one of those “hinge-countries” between the European Union and Russia. For this reason, both the European Union and Russia regard their relations with the former Soviet republic as essential for regional security.
Yet, from the EU’s point of view, given its rather weakly asserted national identity – an identity that is, ultimately, almost assimilated into that of its Russian neighbour – and its anachronistic and, by European standards, unacceptable political regime, Belarus remains a rather embarrassing partner. In an economic context of decline, Belarus continues to lean (increasingly) towards Moscow, the main provider of economic assistance (most importantly through its energy supplies), which is, for its part, wavering between the maintenance of the status quo and the former republic’s reincorporation into the Russian federation. This latter option would not perhaps scandalize the European Union, with the notable exception of Belarus’s Polish neighbour, which currently holds the presidency of the Union. It remains to be seen what Belarus’s citizens themselves think of it, assuming, of course, that it were possible to consult them democratically…
Le 11 septembre 2001, voici 10 ans, les États-Unis étaient victimes d’une vague d’attentats sans précédent, le plus spectaculaire d’entre eux étant sans nul doute celui contre les Twin Towers, expression emblématique de leur puissance. Au cours des 10 années qui ont suivi, la dette américaine est passée de 5 800 milliards à 14 300 milliards de dollars US, escalade — rappelons-le — pour une large part imputable à la politique de George W. Bush, marquée par une réduction ...
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La revue Foreign Policy a publié en septembre un dossier spécial intitulé The future is now (le futur, c’est maintenant). Il détaille neuf mégatendances pour l’avenir. 1. La technologie va vivre sa propre vie : elle sera omniprésente, les machines seront de plus en plus puissantes et intelligentes. 2. les « micromultinationales » vont gouverner le monde : les plus grandes innovations proviendront de petites entreprises. 3. Tout sera trop gros pour être détruit : du fait de l’interconnexion croissante des pays ...
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Suite au premier choc pétrolier en 1973, l’inflation mondiale a été contrôlée et a diminué progressivement. Entre 2008 et 2009, l’inflation mondiale a augmenté de deux points mais la crise a permis une chute rapide (trois points entre 2009 et 2010). Reste à savoir si l’augmentation continue de l’inflation depuis 2010 constitue un rattrapage des niveaux d’avant-crise ou une prolongation de la tendance à l’augmentation entamée en 2008.
Le 1er juillet 2011, les Marocains ont approuvé par référendum le projet de constitution qui leur était proposé. Cette réforme constitutionnelle se veut une réponse aux mécontentements qui s’expriment au Maroc depuis plusieurs mois. Il est cependant fort probable qu’elle ne suffise pas à mettre fin aux revendications.
Les grandes lignes du 12e plan quinquennal (2011-2015) ont été annoncées en octobre 2010 lors de la session plénière du Comité central du Parti communiste chinois (CCPCC), chargé d’établir des « recommandations » en vue de la finalisation du texte, lequel a été officialisé, en mars 2011, lors de la réunion annuelle de l’Assemblée nationale populaire (ANP). Le nouveau Libre blanc sur la Défense a été publié simultanément. En des temps de crises internationales, de conflits intérieurs, de difficultés économiques ...
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Plan : 1. Brève introduction à la place de l'économie chinoise dans le monde 2. Les déséquilibres 3. Les rééquilibrages
Avec son plan national de développement des talents à moyen et long terme (2010-2020) publié en juin 2010, la Chine s’est engagée dans un processus de transition. Elle prend acte de l’épuisement d’un mode de développement qui a permis son émergence économique. Hub manufacturier du monde, la Chine veut désormais s’imposer comme leader de l’innovation. La question des ressources humaines est au cœur de cette transformation. La Chine dispose de l’atout de sa diaspora ...
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In many Arab countries (Egypt, Tunisia, Libya, Syria, Yemen etc.), the early months of 2011 saw a broad wave of protest on the part of civil populations against their rulers, with significant changes ensuing at the head of several states. Given the relations that have long been maintained with these countries by the members of the European Union, “the Arab spring” (which might well run into summer, if not beyond, in certain countries) will have consequences for EU foreign policy. Jean-François Drevet has already mentioned a number of these in last month’s European column. He takes these thoughts further here, studying more precisely how Euro-Mediterranean policy might evolve in this new context. After going back over the genesis of that policy, he examines its medium-term prospects in two key fields: expansion and the European neighbourhood policy. He stresses, lastly, the two pressing short-term issues that will almost certainly divide the European Union: the management of the migratory flows triggered by the current revolts and the challenge posed by higher oil prices.
Legislative elections in Turkey will be held in mid-June 2011. In this article Didier Billion and Bastien Alex present the political context, the parties in contention and the main issues involved. They remind us of the process of democratization that has been underway since the AKP (“Justice and Development Party”, the majority Islamic party since 2002) has been in power, against a background of polarizing tensions with the army (which has traditionally underpinned secularism and the Kemalist principles on which the Turkish republic has been based since its creation in 1923). They stress also the weakening of the political role of the military and the deep rootedness of the AKP in Turkish society. And, in spite of the substantial debates driving the electoral campaign (on constitutional reform or the question of membership of the European Union, for example), June’s ballot should, barring surprises, end with the AKP being re-elected as the Turkish government.
It remains to be seen, among other things, whether, on the one hand – given something of a move to the radical right in its discourse and certain actions that pose questions about the respect for human rights within the country – the AKP will continue the process it has initiated for meeting European demands for democratization and, on the other, the Turks will maintain their resolve to join a European Union that is currently trying their patience in the “antechamber” to accession.
Ce chapitre est extrait du Rapport Vigie 2016 de Futuribles International, qui propose un panorama structuré des connaissances et des incertitudes des experts que l'association a mobilisés pour explorer les évolutions des 15 à 35 prochaines années sur 11 thématiques.