Géopolitique

Cette page regroupe l'ensemble des publications de Futuribles sur cette thématique (Vigie, revue, bibliographie, études, etc.)

Note de veille

Géopolitique - Ressources naturelles, énergie, environnement

Des risques alimentaires inquiétants en Syrie

Voici près de deux ans que la Syrie s’enfonce dans une profonde guerre civile. Déclenchés le 15 mars 2011, ces contestations envers l’ordre établi se sont initialement inscrites dans le mouvement des révoltes sociopolitiques du monde arabe. Depuis, la révolution en Syrie s’est transformée en conflit larvé entre d’un côté, les forces régulières du président Bachar El-Assad et de l’autre, l’armée syrienne libre (ASL), vaste constellation d’opposants au régime baasiste. Des individus djihadistes ...

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Bibliography

Géopolitique

Debout l’Europe !

Ce bref ouvrage est un brûlot. Là où Stéphane Hessel incitait à s’indigner, Daniel Cohn-Bendit et Guy Verhofstadt appellent les Européens à l’insurrection. Il s’agit rien moins que de mettre un terme à l’institution mortifère des États-nations souverains, responsables depuis deux siècles d’une guerre dévastatrice à chaque génération. Il s’agit de créer enfin les États-Unis d’Europe, une vraie structure supranationale et non pas un oxymore du genre « fédération d’États-nations », ou « fédération intergouvernementale ...

(581 more words)

Bibliography

Géopolitique - Ressources naturelles, énergie, environnement

Fuelling the Dragon

Du 17 au 19 mai 2012, l’Australian Strategic Policy Institute et la Brenthurst Foundation, basée en Afrique du Sud, ont organisé une conférence sur les besoins en ressources naturelles de l’économie chinoise. Cet événement a réuni des experts et des hommes politiques d’Afrique, d’Australie et d’Amérique latine (Brésil, Chili), essentiellement. L’enjeu pour les pays d’Afrique et d’Amérique latine, mais aussi pour l’Australie, est d’anticiper un ralentissement voire un déclin des ...

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Bibliography

Économie, emploi - Géopolitique

China 3.0

Sous la direction de Mark Leonard, cofondateur et directeur de l’ECFR, cet ouvrage est publié dans le cadre d’un projet intitulé « Que pense la nouvelle Chine et que cela signifie-t-il pour l’Europe ? », porté par une coopération entre l’ECFR et quatre partenaires : la fondation Robert Bosch, la fondation Friedrich Ebert, la fondation Calouste Gulbenkian et la fondation Mercator. Plusieurs intellectuels chinois distinguent dans l’histoire récente de la Chine une succession de cycles de 30 ans. Selon ...

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Bibliography

Géopolitique

Global Trends 2030 : Alternative Worlds

 Comme tous les quatre ans et pour la cinquième fois, la Communauté américaine du renseignement prépare par une étude de prospective géopolitique à 20 ans le début du mandat du nouveau président. Pour le second mandat de Barack Obama, le National Intelligence Council, qui agit ici comme une sorte de think-tank interne à cette communauté, à même de travailler avec des experts extérieurs plus « ouvertement » que les célèbres agences qui la composent, intitule son rapport Tendances globales 2030 : Des mondes ...

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Tribune européenne

Géopolitique

The European Union, Turkey and the Near East

It is more than seven years now since negotiations were begun on the possibility of Turkey joining the European Union (after nearly 40 years of “association” between Ankara and the European Community). Nonetheless, it seems increasingly difficult to believe that full membership will become a reality in the medium term. As Jean-François Drevet shows here, the policies adopted by the Turkish government in recent years, both internally (with regard, most importantly, to respect for human rights) and externally (with regard to Cyprus and the Near East –particularly Syria, Israel and Iran), together with the growing impact of the religious factor on its foreign policy, militate against Turkey’s incorporation into the EU. Whether this situation derives from a lack of motivation or a lack of clear-sightedness on Ankara’s part, the results are clear and, short of another partnership option being devised, the odds are that negotiations will be stalled for a very long time.

Actualité du futur

Géopolitique

Tendances globales 2030

Comme tous les quatre ans, la communauté américaine du renseignement prépare par une étude de prospective géopolitique à 20 ans le début du mandat du nouveau président. Pour le second mandat de Barack Obama, le National Intelligence Council, qui agit ici comme une sorte de think tank interne à cette communauté, à même de travailler avec des experts extérieurs plus « ouvertement » que les célèbres agences qui la compose, intitule son rapport Global trends 2030 « Des mondes alternatifs ». Ce document est ...

(272 more words)

Note de veille

Géopolitique

La Corée du Sud et l’aiguillon chinois

La Corée du Sud, qui a été un royaume tributaire de la Chine, est passée sous l’orbite du Japon au début du XXe siècle et des États-Unis aux lendemains de la Seconde Guerre mondiale. En 1992, elle a renoué ses relations avec la Chine qui, 20 ans plus tard, est devenue son premier partenaire commercial devant les États-Unis et le Japon. Au huitième rang de l’OCDE (Organisation de coopération et de développement économiques) en termes de PIB (produit ...

(934 more words)

Tribune européenne

Géopolitique - Institutions

Can the European Union Break its Deadlock?

For almost five years Europeans have been experiencing the consequences of a very severe and apparently interminable economic crisis. Although the member states of the European Union have not all been affected by this crisis with the same intensity, there has been a continuous round of summits and meetings at the highest level to attempt to find solutions to it, particularly where the eurozone is concerned. These have not borne fruit –and for good reason. As Jean-François Drevet shows here, the Union is having difficulty in breaking its deadlock: the institutions, as they have operated up to now, have revealed their limitations, and in many cases the states have not really put the European interest before their national interests.

Yet, as we have seen many times in these pages, no country seems able to lift itself out of this situation alone, and recovery –if there is to be recovery– will be possible only through the assertion, if not indeed the strengthening, of European solidarity. Economics and politics are connected here. The new European treaty on stability, coordination and governance within the economic and monetary Union is a step in the right direction. But it will be necessary to bolster this further, particularly in the eurozone countries, with a strengthening of common rules and hence a modicum of abandonment of sovereignty and a greater degree of representativeness for European institutions.

Note de veille

Géopolitique - Ressources naturelles, énergie, environnement

Réchauffement climatique : trop tard pour éviter le pire ?

Alors que la communauté internationale se réunit à Doha, au Qatar, pour lancer la deuxième phase du protocole de Kyoto, trois rapports du PNUE (Programme des Nations unies pour l’environnement), de la Banque mondiale et de l’OMM (Organisation météorologique mondiale) confirment la dégradation rapide de la situation climatique mondiale. Selon le PNUE, les émissions mondiales de gaz à effet de serre (GES) ont augmenté de 20 % depuis 2000 [1]. Elles sont désormais supérieures de 14 % au niveau qu ...

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Note de veille

Géopolitique

Colombie, l’espoir ténu d’une paix introuvable

Depuis le 18 octobre 2012, les émissaires du gouvernement colombien et de la guérilla des Forces armées révolutionnaires de Colombie (FARC) tentent de solder depuis Oslo (avant La Havane, à compter du 15 novembre) l’un des plus anciens conflits armés de la planète. Bien que tenus dans des conditions générales plus favorables que les précédents, ces pourparlers risquent fort d’être ceux de la dernière chance. Comme bien souvent ailleurs en Amérique latine, le conflit colombien, plus que cinquantenaire ...

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Tribune européenne

Géopolitique

The European Union and its Three Major Players

The various crises the European Union has undergone in recent years (economic, institutional, monetary etc.) and the way the member states have reacted to them at the national and the community level, have reconfigured the balance between the various countries. Among these countries, three “major players” are worthy of particular attention on account of their demographic, economic and diplomatic impact within this regional ensemble. These are the UK, Germany and France.

Jean-François Drevet describes the positioning of these three countries within the Union and their mid- to long-term perspectives. Confronted with a United Kingdom that feels vindicated in its minimalist European position, somewhere between “wait-and-see” and Euroscepticism, and continues in the footsteps of the American elder brother, the Franco-German Couple, its centre of gravity now shifted towards Berlin, is finding it hard to mount the effort for regional integration that would enable the Union to regain both economic and diplomatic momentum. A re-balancing would be salutary, but is France able to transcend its inter-governmental vision of the European edifice and make the innovations required to strengthen the Union that are probably the only alternative to decline?

Editorial

Géopolitique

Le pari européen

Alors que la plupart des pays européens s’enlisent dans la crise, les atermoiements qu’a suscités la ratification du Traité sur la stabilité, la coordination et la gouvernance me semblent d’un autre âge. En août 2011, Jacques Delors nous alertait déjà : « Ouvrons les yeux, s’exclamait-il, l’euro et l’Europe sont au bord du gouffre. Et pour ne pas tomber, le choix me paraît simple : soit les États membres acceptent la coopération économique renforcée […], soit ils transfèrent ...

(966 more words)

Tribune européenne

Géopolitique

The North/South Divide in Europe

The economic crisis that has affected Europe for almost five years has also rekindled the dissensions within the European Union and demonstrated the difficulties experienced in organizing effective solidarity among all the member states. Though Germany is calling for increased European integration, this is far from unanimously agreed by all its partners. Yet, as Jean-François Drevet shows here, the disparities in economic development between the countries of Europe are a long-standing feature of the EU and, despite the mechanisms put in place during its construction and expansion, they have not been reduced in any lasting way; the countries of the South (Italy, Greece, Spain and Portugal) have still not managed to catch up economically with those of the North (Germany, France, Benelux etc.). Solidarity has a price, admittedly, but if it were implemented at community level, it might also turn out to be more effective than national policies in resolving current economic problems, as this column shows; it might, in the longer term, ensure that the South catches up economically with the North. For that, however, we would need a community budget truly worthy of the name, capable of sustaining a European cohesion policy on a wholly new scale...

Bonnes feuilles

Géopolitique - Institutions

United States: The Influence of the Fundamentalists

On 6 November 2012, Americans will go to the polls to elect their next president, who will take over as leader of the United States in January 2013. As usual, the contest will essentially be between the candidates of the two major parties, the incumbent Democratic president Barack Obama and the Republican Mitt Romney. However, recent years have also seen the emergence of a movement (named “party” although it is not a party), which has radicalized the Republican party to the extreme. It is a particularly populist force and Paul Ryan, Mitt Romney’s running mate, is very close to it. We are speaking of the “Tea Party”. Within that faction, religious fundamentalists rub shoulders with unemployed youth, and pensioners ruined by the economic crisis mingle with those who still hanker after an all-powerful America. All are advocates of a radical change of government, abolishing most of the public sector and replacing it with private enterprise.

Nicole Morgan has made a close study of this movement and its underlying ideology in her book Haine froide [Cold Hatred] which is hot off the press from éditions du Seuil of Paris. In that work, she provides the key to this “ideological machine” that has been built up over a half century, with its intellectuals, best-selling authors and Nobel prize-winners, its heretical alliances and powerful figures, who ultimately inhabit a different world from the other 99% of humanity. Although this ideology developed and established itself in the United States, its universal ambitions actually make it an essential subject of study so far as the future of all modern nation-states is concerned. As this extract from Nicole Morgan’s book shows, the ideology rests on simple postulates which it transforms, against a background of economic ultra-liberalism, into irrefutable truths. Like all hard ideologies, it is a vehicle for strong emotions welling up from deep within the collective unconscious, fear and hatred foremost among them. According to Morgan, hatred (a “cold” hatred, for the moment) underlies this ideology, figures lend it a benign veneer, and it is characterized by ignorance. Hence an attitude of vigilance is appropriate.

Revue

Géopolitique

The Future of Global Leadership: On Zbigniew Brzezinski’s “Strategic Vision”

The various crises the USA has experienced in recent decades (the attacks of 11 September 2001, the economic and financial crisis of 2007 etc.), against a background of deadlock on such major international questions as the fight against climate change and the emergence of new powers in Asia, have called into question the USA’s status as a global superpower. If this decline on the part of the USA in the management of international affairs continues and no other –national or regional– power takes over the reins, the future of the world looks very gloomy.

This is Zbigniew Brzezinski’s diagnosis in his latest study, in which he details the elements that have brought this situation about (the handicaps affecting the USA and contributing to its decline), maps out the perspectives that might ensue in the years to 2025 and suggests, by way of a “strategic vision” (mainly intended to guide American policy), the means for avoiding the chaos that might arise out of a leaderless world.

Bernard Cazes has read this book for Futuribles. He reviews its main ideas here and traces the general outlines of this new “strategic vision”.

Revue

Géopolitique

Qatar between Dynamism and Ambition: Socio-economic Prospects to 2030

Though it is a very small country in the Arab peninsula (just over half the size of Wales), the Emirate of Qatar nonetheless occupies an increasingly important economic and diplomatic position globally. Awareness of the country has grown in recent years with a Qatari presence developing –and being consolidated– in the sporting sector (football clubs, TV channels etc.), but most importantly Qatar is also one of the leading global producers of natural gas, behind Russia and Iran. It also ranks number one in terms of per capita GDP (at parity of purchasing power).

In this article, Perla Srour-Gandon lists the country’s main assets –particularly its energy assets– and also outlines the Qatari authorities’ strategy for maintaining this economic prosperity, even into a world without hydrocarbons. She specifies, among other things, the “2030 Vision” they have developed in the educational, socio-economic and environmental fields, as well as in the areas of sport, tourism and culture, to guarantee a sustainable future for Qataris. It is as yet unknown whether this economic diversification strategy will bear fruit, but it is evidence of a degree of clear-sightedness on the part of the emirate, which is aware that its income stream from gas will not last forever and is using its current position of strength to make longer-term investments.

Bibliography

Géopolitique

Chinese and Indian Strategic Behavior

Cet ouvrage est le fruit d’une collaboration entre George J. Gilboy, le représentant en Chine d’une société australienne du sec­teur énergétique, et Eric Heginbo­tham, spécialiste des questions de sécurité en Asie orientale à la RAND Corporation. Les deux auteurs y présentent un travail d’analyse comparée portant sur les stratégies internationales de l’Inde et de la Chine, et en tirent les conséquences pour les intérêts américains. Il en ressort essentiellement que, contrairement à l’opinion ...

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Chapitre Géopolitique

Ce chapitre est extrait du Rapport Vigie 2016 de Futuribles International, qui propose un panorama structuré des connaissances et des incertitudes des experts que l'association a mobilisés pour explorer les évolutions des 15 à 35 prochaines années sur 11 thématiques.