Entreprises, travail

Cette page regroupe l'ensemble des publications de Futuribles sur cette thématique (Vigie, revue, bibliographie, études, etc.)

Futurs d'antan

Entreprises, travail - Société, modes de vie

Le problème du pain cher

This text was originally published in the magazine Lectures pour tous in 1912, and it shows that France was then still obsessed with the need to be self-sufficient in food, several decades after Méline's first term as Minister of Agriculture (1883-1885, also 1915-1916), he being one of the main proponents of protectionism.
How was France to produce enough wheat to meet its domestic needs (the average annual per capita consumption was 240 kilos in 1911), and at a price consumers could afford, when harvests could vary enormously from year to year? When there was a poor harvest, wheat was scarce, the price of flour rose and French consumers became worried. French farmers watched with dismay when years of shortage followed years of abundance, and had vivid memories of the famines of the 19th century. They knew that the good harvests of the regions with high wheat yields would not be enough then to satisfy demand so that every year some wheat would have to imported, and that meant high bread prices.
The French worried about being dependent on the foreign wheat required to make up for shortages. They were afraid that this dependence on other producing countries would lead to a gradual and continuous rise in the price of wheat on world markets. They then resorted to a protective duty on wheat imports. But when harvests were bad, consumers became so anxious that the duty was suspended, with disastrous consequences in 1898, when the prices of wheat and bread failed to drop and French wheat producers had to sell at a loss.
These ups and downs explain why it was that in 1911, the dream of France being able to produce enough wheat to feed its population without being dependent on anyone else had become an obsession. Although wheat output had virtually doubled between 1831 and 1911, this was never adequate and France had to go on buying wheat from the rest of the world.

Bibliography

Entreprises, travail - Population

Articuler vie familiale et vie professionnelle en Europe. Un enjeu pour l’égalité

Depuis la quatrième conférence mondiale sur les femmes (Pékin, 1995) et l'adoption par les gouvernements d'un programme d'action en 12points, le Conseil des ministres de l'Union européenne a décidé de s'attacher chaque année à l'examen particulier de l'un d'entre eux. Longtemps considérée comme centrale dans l'approche des rôles familiaux et sociaux, la problématique de l'articulation entre vie familiale et vie professionnelle ouvre désormais sur des enjeux plus larges, le travail ...

(145 more words)

Bibliography

Entreprises, travail

Predictions : 10 Years Later

Les prédictions présentées par l'auteur dans un précédent livre (Predictions - Society's Telltale Signature Reveals the Past and Forecasts the Future, 1992, Simon & Schuster), basées sur le principe de la courbe en S et inspirées des travaux de Cesare Marechetti, sont confrontées 10 ans plus tard à la réalité. Dans certains cas, elles se sont révélées exactes, qu'il s'agisse de la consommation énergétique américaine ou de l'extension de l'épidémie de SIDA. En revanche, certaines ...

(39 more words)

Bibliography

Entreprises, travail

La Qualité du travail et de l’emploi en Europe : enjeux et défis

Ce rapport rend compte de travaux effectués par la Fondation européenne pour l'amélioration des conditions de travail. Il expose les enjeux et les défis posés par l'évolution du travail en Europe et propose des pistes de réflexion pour relever ces défis. Assurer la sécurité de l'emploi, maintenir et promouvoir la santé et le bien-être des salariés, développer les compétences et concilier vie professionnelle et vie personnelle vont définir le cadre d'analyse de la Fondation pour évaluer ...

(120 more words)

Bibliography

Entreprises, travail - Recherche, sciences, techniques

What Will Research and Development/Innovation Be Like in Five Years Time ?

L'importance de la recherche-développement (R&D) pour stimuler l'ensemble de l'économie est à présent largement reconnue, cependant l'effort de R&D des entreprises britanniques est encore loin derrière celui des entreprises américaines ou japonaises. John Whatmore a interrogé différents leaders de ce domaine pour connaître leur opinion sur les tendances qui affecteront l'avenir proche de l'organisation de la R&D : externalisation, développement des partenariats entre firmes, rôle de la recherche publique...

Bibliography

Économie, emploi - Entreprises, travail

L’Entreprise du XXIe siècle

Le poids des petites et moyennes entreprises dans l'économie française s'est fortement accru dans la décennie quatre-vingt, tandis que les années quatre-vingt-dix ont vu, quant à elles, l'essor des très petites entreprises. Il ne faut toutefois pas se méprendre. La petite taille semble être une condition favorable, mais certainement pas suffisante. Comme l'affirme ce livre, le chef d'entreprise est bien souvent l'élément essentiel de la compétitivité de la petite entreprise. C'est, bien sûr ...

(190 more words)

Revue

Entreprises, travail

Le devenir du syndicalisme français

French trade unions are at present undergoing a rapid process of disintegration and reorganization, according to Hubert Landier, in this short discussion of the reasons and consequences.
They are disintegrating because of the widening gulf between the head offices of the big unions and the active members, the loss of the "ideological glue" that once held them together, and the gap between the grassroots and the leadership.
At the same time, the efficiency and legitimacy of the head offices is being questioned, and this is leading to the growth of new trade union federations, such as the Union nationale des syndicats autonomes (UNSA) and the Union syndicale Solidaires (Group of Ten).
These developments raise questions about the way trade unions are financed, especially the principle of " majority agreements" which in itself could contribute to a reorganization of French trade unions and their operating arrangements.

Revue

Entreprises, travail

Les entreprises françaises dans les années 2000. Les tendances, les enjeux et les stratégies

A consultancy in business strategy has conducted a survey of French executives in order to identify the issues and challenges facing them at the start of the 21st century. The aim is to use the results to help firms to design new medium- and long-term strategies and to improve their performance.
The main conclusions based on their replies provide, among others, the following insights:
-The most outstanding developments in the business environment are the increasing speed of scientific and technological advances which lead to improvements in productivity, creativity, innovation and penetration of global markets. In addition, customers are more and more demanding with regard to the sourcing of products, their traceability and safety. Finally, competition is becoming fiercer with the arrival of "local killers" and "global players".
-As for the main challenges facing firms, the replies emphasize first the need for growth (meaning growth in turnover), market leadership and internationalization, with "profitability" a much lower priority.
-In coping with these challenges, the key factor for success is human capital, seen as the firm's main asset even if it also involves considerable problems in terms of attracting, training, motivating and retaining people with the right skills.
-Lastly, with regard to the way that managers develop and implement strategies for change within their firms, the preference is for a top-down approach, with little workforce participation.
The survey thus highlights the autocratic style of decision-making, the reluctance of "classic" businesses to adapt, and the lack of interest in profitability of the dot.coms.

Revue

Entreprises, travail - Recherche, sciences, techniques

Le palmarès des régions. Les grandes régions scientifiques et technologiques dans le monde

Intangibles, starting with technological R&D, are playing an increasingly decisive role in the competitive position of countries, firms and also regions. Consequently it is important to try to measure the scientific and technological performance of regions, even if the indicators used are not wholly reliable. This is the task that the 'Institut d'aménagement et d'urbanisme de la région Île-de-France' (IAURIF) has set itself with regard to the main regions of the 'big three' (European Union, United States of America, Japan), using three key indicators: domestic R&D expenditures, quantity of scientific publications and of patents registered; to these are added an 'index of specialization'..
Vincent Gollain discusses the main conclusions of this study, which reveals that there is considerable variation in the scientific and technological potential of regions within each of the countries concerned, as well as among countries. He draws up a league table of the 24 leading regions of Europe, and stresses the dominant position, whatever the subject, of the regions around Paris, London and Tokyo. Similarly, in the countries with a federal system, certain regions stand well above the rest: California and Michigan in the United States, Baden-Wurttemberg and Bavaria in Germany.
In this way, Gollain seeks to highlight the performance and the degree of specialization of the top regions, and also the differing roles played in them by firms and public authorities.
Although he acknowledges the growing international importance of some new regions (e.g. Sophia Antipolis in southern France, Hsinchu, Montreal), he argues that the strength of regions is quite stable, and is highly dependent on long-term political aims, the synergy that may be built up between research institutions and social and cultural factors. From a comparison of the performance of the 24 leading regions in Europe with those of the top 12 in the United States and the most advanced regions of Japan, Gollain demonstrates the overwhelming role of a handful of regions and of a few cities of international importance: Paris, London, Los Angeles, New York, Tokyo.

Bibliography

Entreprises, travail

The Futures of Futures Studies

Le président de la Fédération mondiale des études prospectives pense que "l'avenir est à la mode" (du moins en Australie) et que "les études prospectives ont bénéficié à l'ensemble de la société moderne". De nombreuses organisations se sont lancées avec engouement dans les nouvelles technologies. La principale utilité des études prospectives est de permettre de développer des scénarios alternatifs, et parfois même, de faire preuve d'un esprit visionnaire ; "perspicacité et projection" sont les nouveaux mots-clés. La municipalité ...

(297 more words)

Revue

Entreprises, travail - Recherche, sciences, techniques

L’e-novation des entreprises

Increasingly, businesses appear to be obliged to meet the demands of sustainable development (if only in response to the growing pressure from their shareholders, consumers or employees). But there is another factor that seems now to play a key role in determining the "sustainability" or even the viability of firms: their ability to taken on board the lessons of the revolution in information and communication technologies (ICTs).
In this article, Xavier Dalloz and André-Yves Portnoff attempt to describe the new paradigm of management generated by the Internet, which they argue that all firms must adopt in order to avoid going into decline. The authors support their arguments by citing specific cases that illustrate the need (in both negative and positive ways) for a radical "e-novation".
In their view, one would have to be exceptionally shortsighted not to see that "the phenomena we have been witnessing over the last decade are important and in general their strength is likely to grow exponentially in future". It would then be fatal to dismiss the ICTs as merely an ornamental supplement to the real business of production or marketing. The authors are adamant: without succumbing to a blind fascination for all things high-tech, it is essential for firms to understand that networks and the shift towards the intangible are making certain styles of management and business organization increasingly appropriate and indispensable; firms must undergo major restructuring if they are to integrate these changes. The key words here are: involvement, flows, partnership and interdependence.

Revue

Entreprises, travail - Géopolitique - Recherche, sciences, techniques

L’essor du télétravail en Europe

The European Commission publishes an annual report on distance working in Europe. Anne de Beer, on the basis the 2000 Edition, observes that distance working is on the increase in Europe, in spite of the different forms it adopts and the significant differences in its popularity from one country to another.
For instance, this report reveals that although the number of distance workers in Europe rose above 10 million last year, this form of work is much more frequent in Scandinavian countries than in the Mediterranean, with France at the bottom of the list... except in terms of creating obstacles to its development.

Futurs d'antan

Entreprises, travail

Un conseil municipal à distance

The Begum's Fortune, by Jules Verne was first serialised in the Magasin d'éducation et de récréation from issues n. 337 (January 1, 1879) to 354 (September 15, 1879), published by Hetzel. The whole text was first published in an illustrated edition (with 43 drawings by Léon Benett) on October 20, 1879.
Two characters, which everything divides, have inherited a fortune of 500 million francs from the Indian Princess Begum Gokoo: Doctor Sarrasin, a French doctor specialised in hygiene and the German Professor Schultze, author of numerous comparative works on the different human races.
Both decide to settle down in Oregon where they use their money according to their personal aspirations. Dr. Sarrasin builds an ideal community of around 100.000 inhabitants, called Frankville, offering "moral and physical hygiene conditions that are ideal for the development of the qualities of the race and of new strong and worthy young generations". Schultze has, instead, built Stahlstadt, the city of steel; he has thus become the "largest cannon producer of the two worlds" and designed a gigantic cannon capable of killing 100.000 people from a distance of several dozen kilometres, which he plans to use on Frankville. Dr. Sarrasin learns about these plans in The New York Herald and immediately summons a distance meeting of the local assembly.

Bibliography

Entreprises, travail

Bridging the Gap from the Future : In Search of a Solution to the Taiwan-PRC Rivalry

Les méthodes de la prospective (identification des " signaux faibles ", élaboration de scénarios exploratoires et normatifs) sont utilisées dans cet article pour déterminer les issues possibles du conflit entre Taiwan et la république populaire de Chine. L'auteur identifie une tendance lourde qu'il intitule la " taiwanisation ", c'est-à-dire le nationalisme croissant des Taiwanais. Cette tendance est transversale aux quatre scénarios qui envisagent respectivement : 1) la montée en puissance des partisans de l'autodétermination qui entraînerait une course aux armements entre ...

(141 more words)

Bibliography

Entreprises, travail - Société, modes de vie - Territoires, réseaux

Quels espaces-temps de la vie quotidienne à l’horizon 2020 ?

La problématique générale de cet article est d'esquisser les contenus de ce que pourrait être une politique d'aménagement du territoire qui appréhenderait la dimension temporelle au regard de sa propre dynamique mais aussi de celle de son inscription territoriale. Dans un premier temps, les auteurs synthétisent les questions relatives au temps qui ont émergé des territoires associés à la démarche, qu'il s'agisse de problèmes liés à la flexibilisation des temporalités de travail ou à la diversification ...

(90 more words)

Futurs d'antan

Entreprises, travail

Le test

The Test (Futures of Yesteryear)

Richard Matheson, an American writer born in 1926, divided his literary career between writing fantasy and science fiction showing in both an inclination towards strangeness and horror. His first science-fiction short story, Born of Man and Woman, 1950 (republished, New York: Buccaneer Books, 1991), was a big success both in the US and in France where it was published in the review Fiction. Matheson's science fiction is not based on science or technology, but originates from rational situations where the individual's monstrosity, which makes him singular, or that of the society which refuses deviation, anomaly or simply divergence from the norm, as in The Test, is described in a sober and efficient style. His most famous novel is no doubt I Am Legend (New York: Tor Books, 1997) where the last "normal" man becomes a terrifying myth among a population of vampires. Richard Matheson made a very popular appearance in France, at the "Étonnants Voyageurs" ("Amazing travellers") festival in Saint-Malo, in 2000.
The short story you are about to read has been edited many times in French, a good indication of its value. First published in 1957 in the review Fiction, it was reedited in 1970 in the anthology Après... la guerre atomique ("After... the Atomic War" - Paris: Marabout), and in Histoires de l'an 2000 ("Stories from the year 2000" - Paris: Le Livre de Poche, 1985, republished in 1999) and finally in L'Intégrale des nouvelles de Richard Matheson ("An Anthology of Richard Matheson's Short Stories" - Paris: Imagine, Flammarion, 1999).
Forty years after its first edition in French, it hasn't lost an ounce of its unsettling visionary value. It deserves to be compared to Thomas Disch's astonishing short story, La Mort de Socrate (The Death of Socrates, revised from Problems of Creativeness, 1972, first published in Fiction, n°168, and also republished in Histoires de l'an 2000), in which a young man's right to marry and have children is also determined by a test.

Bibliography

Entreprises, travail

Les images dans les travaux de prospective de la DATAR

Une analyse des images de la prospective de la DATAR conduit à s'interroger, par-delà les différences de facture, aux évolutions des façons de faire de la prospective et du rôle qui lui est attribué aux différentes époques. À la prospective " scientifique " des années 1970, succède une prospective accordant une place de plus en plus importante au débat. Les représentations de la prospective se démarquent progressivement de la carte descriptive pour devenir des images de communication, susceptibles de mobiliser des ...

(7 more words)

Revue

Entreprises, travail - Institutions

La « bonne gouvernance ». L’expérience des entreprises, son utilité pour la sphère publique

The Principle of "Good Governance". The Experience of Business and Its Applications in Public Affairs

"The functioning of companies on the stock market imitates to a great extent that of a parliamentary democracy; it would be wise, in return, to use these companies' experience in order to achieve democratic progress". This is, in substance, Yves Cannac and Michel Godet's argument, as they attempt to demonstrate in which ways the principles of 'good governance' developed for the sake of business could be applied in the field of public institutions.
The authors first explain the notion of 'governance' and show how it has increasingly taken hold in business, with the ultimate aim of increasing the shareholders' trust in the managers they have chosen. They specify its prerequisites -responsibility, readability, transparency, coherence, efficacy and effectiveness- and underline its usefulness from the standpoint of democracy and the good functioning of organisations.
In spite of the obvious difference that public institutions must serve the interests of the people and not those of shareholders, the authors consider nonetheless that the same principles could be useful in the public sector which all too often suffers from an excess of opacity, inefficiency and ultimately, a lack of legitimacy.
This is why Yves Cannac and Michel Godet are intent on showing how the principles of good governance could be applied to national or international public institutions and particularly French institutions.

Bibliography

Entreprises, travail - Géopolitique - Territoires, réseaux

L’Europe de demain sera-t-elle polycentrique ?

La prospective de l'aménagement de l'espace français doit intégrer une réflexion sur l'évolution de l'Union européenne, en particulier depuis la rédaction d'un document de référence : le SDEC. Ce Schéma préconise un développement spatial polycentrique, objectif partagé par la DATAR. Après s'être interrogé sur le statut du SDEC et sur la pertinence du concept de polycentrisme, on évalue les chances d'une Europe plus équilibrée. Un scénario purement tendanciel confirme la prééminence de l'Euromégalopole ...

(25 more words)

Bibliography

Entreprises, travail

On the Future of Technological Forecasting

Les sept auteurs ont cherché à établir des normes permettant de développer, dans les 20 prochaines années, la prospective technologique et l'évaluation des technologies. Ils partent de l'hypothèse que les étapes du développement de la prospective technologique sont liées aux besoins institutionnels et aux grands changements sociaux. Les entreprises et le gouvernement sont constamment obligés d'anticiper et de réagir face à l'évolution technologique. L'avenir de la prospective technologique dépendra aussi de l'attitude de l ...

(183 more words)

Chapitre Entreprises, travail

Ce chapitre est extrait du Rapport Vigie 2016 de Futuribles International, qui propose un panorama structuré des connaissances et des incertitudes des experts que l'association a mobilisés pour explorer les évolutions des 15 à 35 prochaines années sur 11 thématiques.