Entreprises, travail

Cette page regroupe l'ensemble des publications de Futuribles sur cette thématique (Vigie, revue, bibliographie, études, etc.)

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Entreprises, travail - Recherche, sciences, techniques

El Futuro de los medios de comunicación ante el impacto de las nuevas tecnologías

Ce rapport sur « le futur des médias face à l'impact des nouvelles technologies » présente les résultats d'une étude prospective menée par l'OPTI et l'ICT. Son objectif est d'explorer l'évolution des médias (dans les 15 prochaines années) face au développement des nouvelles technologies de l'information et de la communication (TIC). L'analyse et les enquêtes ont été faites à partir d'un modèle conceptuel de base présentant quatre thèmes : la transformation des médias, les ...

(247 more words)

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Entreprises, travail - Ressources naturelles, énergie, environnement

Biodiversité et changements globaux. Enjeux de société et défis pour la recherche

Né de la prise de conscience collective des enjeux que porte la diversité du vivant et des menaces qui pèsent sur elle, le concept de biodiversité s'est imposé au monde à la faveur du sommet planétaire de Rio de Janeiro, en juin 1992. Dix ans plus tard, à Johannesburg, les exigences d'action étaient rappelées et l'engagement était pris de freiner l'érosion de la biodiversité à l'horizon 2010. L'objectif de ce rapport est de présenter ...

(232 more words)

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Entreprises, travail - Ressources naturelles, énergie, environnement

Sulphur and nitrogen oxides emissions in Europe and deposition in Finland during the 21st century

This paper describes the development of European scenarios of sulphur and nitrogen oxide emissions and resulting depositions in Finland during the 21st century, based on the IPCC Special Report on Emissions Scenarios. The work is a part of the FINSKEN project, which aimed at developing consistent long-term scenarios of global change for Finland. The derivation of emission scenarios for European countries and the calculation of environmental loading scenarios based on them presented in this paper is analogous to the estimation ...

(143 more words)

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Entreprises, travail

Invitation à la prospective / An Invitation to Foresight

L'invitation que nous propose Hugues de Jouvenel, directeur général du groupe Futuribles, dans ce court ouvrage bilingue français-anglais (consultable en ligne), prend la forme d'une initiation pour les néophytes, et d'un rappel utile de quelques principes de base pour les convertis. La première partie explicite la philosophie qui sous-tend les notions et concepts utilisés en prospective qui est le fruit de la révolution de pensée grâce à laquelle, à partir du XVIIIe siècle, l'homme est passé ...

(595 more words)

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Entreprises, travail - Recherche, sciences, techniques

L’Innovation contingente. Deux sagas : Zodiac et Salomon

Comment innover ? L'innovation, cette faculté tant recherchée de nos jours par les organisations, peut-elle résulter de la simple application de pratiques prédéfinies ? Quelle part est laissée au hasard ? Schématiquement, deux courants s'affrontent dans ce grand débat. Le premier prône que l'innovation réussie résulte de l'application de facteurs-clés de succès ; une fois identifiés, ces facteurs apportent ainsi une sorte de « garantie » de succès à l'organisation. A contrario, le second courant soutient que l'approche « rationnelle », résultante ...

(371 more words)

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Entreprises, travail - Géopolitique

Vision 2020. Nanoelectronics at the Centre of Change

Ce rapport, produit par un groupe d'experts de la Commission européenne (CE), présente une vision de ce que devrait offrir le secteur nanoélectronique d'ici les 15 prochaines années. Les experts identifient également les impacts que devraient avoir ces changements sur le développement d'autres secteurs économiques. L'Europe souhaite occuper une position de leader en ce qui concerne la recherche-développement (R&D) du secteur nanoélectronique. La CE rappelle que pour réaliser cet objectif, l'Union européenne (UE) doit créer ...

(96 more words)

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Entreprises, travail - Ressources naturelles, énergie, environnement

FINSKEN : a framework for developing consistent global change scenarios for Finland in the 21st century

This paper presents the rationale, methodology and results of the three-year FINSKEN project to develop global change scenarios for Finland in the 21st century. Scenario consistency was pursued by relating all scenarios to the same global driving factors of environmental change specified by the IPCC. Scenarios were constructed of socio-economic development, climate, sea level, surface ozone exposure, and sulphur and nitrogen deposition. Both empirical and modelling approaches were used to develop scenarios. Linkages between scenario types were examined to improve ...

(123 more words)

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Économie, emploi - Entreprises, travail - Géopolitique

Scenarios for the Future of Europe’s Regions

Cet article présente l'exercice de construction de scénarios réalisé en novembre 2002, lors d'une conférence sur l'avenir des régions européennes organisée par le think-tank allemand Scenario Management International (ScMI). La méthode utilisée est longuement développée. Tout d'abord, trois grandes questions ont servi de cadre à la réflexion : la première portait sur la vitesse de l'intégration européenne, la deuxième sur la survie des cultures régionales, la troisième sur le dynamisme de l'innovation technologique au sein ...

(506 more words)

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Entreprises, travail - Recherche, sciences, techniques

Future Issues of Science and Technology

Le Millennium Project a impliqué 237 scientifiques, prospectivistes et décideurs de tous les continents dans une enquête Delphi sur l'avenir des sciences et techniques à un horizon de 25 ans. Le questionnaire de départ a été élaboré avec des attachés scientifiques d'ambassades, puis soumis aux participants qui devaient classer les questions en fonction de l'importance qu'ils leur donnaient personnellement et le degré de priorité qu'elles présentaient pour leur pays. Un deuxième round a consisté à ...

(290 more words)

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Économie, emploi - Entreprises, travail - Population

La Gestion prospective des âges

Sous l'effet combiné de l'allongement de la durée de la vie et du recul de la fécondité, nos sociétés vieillissent inexorablement. Cependant, paradoxalement, la structure par âge des entreprises françaises ne semble pas refléter les évolutions démographiques générales : elle se trouve plutôt être le résultat de décisions prises en matière de « gestion des âges », i.e. d'utilisation de l'âge comme critère de gestion de l'emploi, sous l'influence de facteurs économiques et sociologiques. Sur la ...

(179 more words)

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Entreprises, travail - Recherche, sciences, techniques

Outlook 2004

Cette livraison annuelle de The Futurist est basée sur une sélection des " idées les plus stimulantes " parmi les articles publiés dans le magazine au cours de l'année. Pour plus d'informations, il faut donc se rapporter aux articles en question, car la liste présentée dans ce numéro est très peu détaillée et argumentée. Voici les 10 " prévisions " retenues : - les plantes génétiquement modifiées pourraient dépasser les plantes " naturelles " en surfaces plantées d'ici 2020 ; - les deux tiers de la population ...

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Revue

Entreprises, travail - Recherche, sciences, techniques

Heurs et malheurs de la recherche

Pierre Bonnaure criticizes the gap between what European leaders say about research and their policies in practice. He stresses that, while they claim to be committed to raising investment in research to 3 % of GDP by 2010, and to making the European Union "the most dynamic competitive knowledge-based economy in the world", in reality they prove to be incapable of finding the funds necessary to do this, or of devising a proper strategy.
Bonnaure is scathing about this contradiction and shows that, despite the declared objectives, the member nations of the EU (with the notable exception of the Scandinavian countries), a fortiori the EU itself, are unable to make up the shortfall. He seeks explanations for this failure, recounting the ups and downs of French research and of EU programmes, in particular the Framework Programme for Research and Development.
In addition to the inadequacy of public funding and the problems that this can cause, Pierre Bonnaure strongly criticizes the lack of clearly defined priorities (or the choice of the wrong priorities). He argues that these failures have often become quite obvious but no policy has been devised that really deals with them. Finally, he emphasizes the urgent need for investment in R&D to be stepped up (and, at the same time, for the current arrangements to be overhauled) and he stresses the importance of focusing on those fields where Europe has special strengths.

Revue

Entreprises, travail - Recherche, sciences, techniques - Ressources naturelles, énergie, environnement

La marchandisation du vivant

The major advances in research into the basis of life, especially over the last two decades, threatens to lead - as discoveries and/or inventions are made and, as a result, patents are taken out - to a process of private acquisition and hence commercialisation of the world's gene stock.
Pierre-Benoit Joly and Bertrand Hervieu first outline the dangers inherent in these developments and then go on to discuss the various "innovation regimes", in particular how we have shifted from agricultural research shaped mainly by public bodies and the farming community to genome -soon to be post-genome- research dominated by multinational firms, that incite moves to strengthen intellectual property considerations.
Rather than making the argument one of public versus private control, the authors favour seeking a third way. They begin by analysing the reasons behind patent laws (whose purpose is to encourage research while fostering the spread of innovations), while at the same time they emphasize the problems in practice, especially where life-forms are involved, and the benefits and drawbacks that may arise when patent laws are applied too rigidly.
They then show that other ways of protecting inventions exist which make it possible to share financial resources and genetic material (as has happened in the case of cattle). With these precedents in mind - for which they also sketch the advantages and disadvantages- they make a plea for a European model based on sharing resources, with references to successful initiatives of this kind in both the United States and Europe.

Futurs d'antan

Entreprises, travail - Société, modes de vie

Lettre sur la tolérance

As France prepares to mark the centenary of the separation of Church and State in 2005, the current concerns about the presence of religious symbols in state schools (above all, headscarves worn by Muslim girls) show that the debate is far from over. Above and beyond the issue of religion in schools, the question touches the more general problem of attitudes to Islam in French society. How can we prevent secularism, which is a core value of the French education system, from leading to the exclusion of some pupils? And what can be done so that the French version of Islam distinguishes the temporal from the spiritual?
In this debate it is hard to find more relevant reading matter than A Letter Concerning Toleration published by John Locke in 1689. Although there are plenty of texts about tolerance dating from the 17th century (Spinoza, Bayle), Locke's Letter has become the best known reference, because it is so clear and concise. Starting from a conception of the freedom of judgement essential for all human beings, Locke defines the strict limits on the rights of the two institutions (Church and State), the one concerned with man and his worldly goods, the other with matters of faith and the eternal salvation of his soul.
According to Locke, the right to toleration has nothing to do with religious convictions; instead, it is essentially a practical political issue relating to the conduct of social relations. He makes a radical distinction between politics and religion: anyone who confuses two spheres that are so different in their origins, their ends and their concerns is muddling two things that are diametrical opposites, Heaven and Earth. Tolerance in Locke's view nevertheless involves restrictions, above all with regard to convictions that seek to impinge upon the State's sphere: Roman Catholicism because it is ruled from abroad, atheism because he sees it as basically unsuited to maintaining the moral ties essential to political life. Having had some experience himself of the business of the State, Locke was totally uncompromising about the boundary between public law and divine law: his obsession as a champion of liberalism (in the sense of respect for individual liberties) was with the social disorders arising from arbitrary actions by magistrates or from religious fanaticism or, worse still, the combination of the two.

Futurs d'antan

Éducation - Entreprises, travail - Institutions

Service public, service du public ?

The text reprinted here is an extract from a book by Yves Cannac published in 1983 (Le Juste Pouvoir, Paris: Jean-Claude Lattès) in which the writer offered his views of the efficiency of the French education system and its ability to respond to public expectations and to those of pupils and their parents. The article is now 20 years old, but the views expressed remain highly relevant, judging by the criticisms of the system in the media today by those currently involved in education. Let us hope that just as schools are about to engage in a full-scale self-examination (under the aegis of the committee chaired by Claude Thélot), the plea made here will be heard: that the school system should really serve the public.

Revue

Entreprises, travail - Institutions

Perspectives pour la fonction publique en France

In France the issue of administrative reform, more specifically of the civil service, crops up constantly and yet is also almost a taboo subject. Nevertheless, the Conseil d'État has just produced an important report about it, and Marcel Pochard presents here some of its key ideas.
French civil servants (numbering more than 5 million people) are subject to the common law of employment, but they enjoy a special status that was intended originally to protect them from what Jules Jeanneney called "the impulses, injustices and the ever-present risk of arbitrary action by those in power". As a result they constitute a particularly strong interest group (if not several).
While reminding us of the justifications for the special position of civil servants and the key characteristics, virtues and deficiencies of the public service, Marcel Pochard argues that a thorough overhaul is now indispensable.
He stresses that the civil service is facing three major issues: its performance, since the public sector cannot remain isolated from a largely inevitable general trend; better management of human resources, since this is recognized as having a key role in organizational efficiency; and reconciling the laws governing the public service with other branches of law, especially relating to the public budget and the free movement of state employees within the European Union.
In order to meet these challenges Pochard envisages five avenues of reform. The first concerns the laws relating to employees of the state and the need to review "their range and content" without questioning the need for special arrangements. The second proposes the introduction of contracts in civil service law. The third concerns the modes of management of civil servants, the fourth the modes of personnel organization and management, including the need to separate the grade from job content. The fifth and final one stresses the need to foster a better dialogue within and among civil service departments.
"The time has undoubtedly come for a complete overhaul of the French civil service", writes Marcel Pochard, and his analysis and proposals, which are both daring and relevant, will doubtless generate a lively debate. It remains to be seen whether these recommendations will be accepted and, above all, whether anything will come of them...

Forum

Entreprises, travail

Ruptures : rupture-cassure et rupture-seuil

In this discussion paper, Daniel Bouchacourt addresses the concept of "rupture" via two of the possible ways it can occur: as a breaking-point and as a threshold. Having defined these two concepts, he uses specific examples (epidemics, major climate events, mobility, etc.) to show in what way these two types of rupture are deeply disturbing for modern societies.
The author emphasizes in particular the regrettable failure of governments to foresee and take account of these factors in the long term. Yet, very often, many weak signals and sometimes even significant trends make it possible to see the approach of these thresholds and, if they were taken into account, it would help governments to avoid them or to make better advance provision for them.
To remedy this lack of foresight, Daniel Bouchacourt proposes four types of policy: restore greater emphasis on the medium and long terms in social and economic analysis, promote positive attitudes, reassure public opinion by providing better information, and derive greater benefit from globalisation.

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Entreprises, travail - Recherche, sciences, techniques

« Enjeux Construction 2020 »

Pour célébrer le centième anniversaire de sa création, Le Moniteur propose à ses lecteurs de porter un regard vers l'avenir. Les grands enjeux pour la construction à l'horizon 2020 ont été identifiés dans le domaine de l'habitat (des logements plus nombreux pour des familles atomisées), des infrastructures, de l'architecture (nouveaux matériaux et nouvelles technologies), ou encore de l'aménagement du territoire (impact de la décentralisation, arrivée des néoruraux). Les mutations à l'œuvre concernant les lieux ...

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Chapitre Entreprises, travail

Ce chapitre est extrait du Rapport Vigie 2016 de Futuribles International, qui propose un panorama structuré des connaissances et des incertitudes des experts que l'association a mobilisés pour explorer les évolutions des 15 à 35 prochaines années sur 11 thématiques.