Cette page regroupe l'ensemble des publications de Futuribles sur cette thématique (Vigie, revue, bibliographie, études, etc.)
Cet article présente l'exercice de construction de scénarios réalisé en novembre 2002, lors d'une conférence sur l'avenir des régions européennes organisée par le think-tank allemand Scenario Management International (ScMI). La méthode utilisée est longuement développée. Tout d'abord, trois grandes questions ont servi de cadre à la réflexion : la première portait sur la vitesse de l'intégration européenne, la deuxième sur la survie des cultures régionales, la troisième sur le dynamisme de l'innovation technologique au sein ...
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This paper presents the rationale, methodology and results of the three-year FINSKEN project to develop global change scenarios for Finland in the 21st century. Scenario consistency was pursued by relating all scenarios to the same global driving factors of environmental change specified by the IPCC. Scenarios were constructed of socio-economic development, climate, sea level, surface ozone exposure, and sulphur and nitrogen deposition. Both empirical and modelling approaches were used to develop scenarios. Linkages between scenario types were examined to improve ...
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Ce rapport sur « le futur des médias face à l'impact des nouvelles technologies » présente les résultats d'une étude prospective menée par l'OPTI et l'ICT. Son objectif est d'explorer l'évolution des médias (dans les 15 prochaines années) face au développement des nouvelles technologies de l'information et de la communication (TIC). L'analyse et les enquêtes ont été faites à partir d'un modèle conceptuel de base présentant quatre thèmes : la transformation des médias, les ...
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Jean-Claude Casanova and Christian Bachelier have assembled and presented with a commentary a collection of the courses given by Raymond Aron, at the Sorbonne or the Collège de France, on Marx and Marxist thought. Jean-Jacques Salomon discusses the results of their work, published at the end of 2002 under the title Le Marxisme de Marx (Paris: Éditions de Fallois, 2002). He shows how Raymond Aron tried in his teaching to decode Marxist thought, to relate it to what was actually observed in society, and to emphasize how clearly Marx perceived (even foresaw) many contemporary problems. For Jean-Jacques Salomon, this was Aron's best book (even if he was not, strictly speaking, the author); it is an analytical tool that will be indispensable when there is -as there certainly will be, according to him -a "return to Marx".
Les pays de l'OCDE sont davantage attentifs à la nécessité d'investir dans la recherche et le développement pour doper leurs performances économiques et rester compétitifs face à des économies comme la Chine et Israël, dont les moyens progressent rapidement, selon cette édition des Perspectives de la science, de la technologie et de l'industrie de l'OCDE. Entre 1995 et 2002, la Chine a doublé ses dépenses de recherche-développement (R&D) qui, en pourcentage du produit intérieur brut (PIB ...
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Le Millennium Project a impliqué 237 scientifiques, prospectivistes et décideurs de tous les continents dans une enquête Delphi sur l'avenir des sciences et techniques à un horizon de 25 ans. Le questionnaire de départ a été élaboré avec des attachés scientifiques d'ambassades, puis soumis aux participants qui devaient classer les questions en fonction de l'importance qu'ils leur donnaient personnellement et le degré de priorité qu'elles présentaient pour leur pays. Un deuxième round a consisté à ...
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Pursuing the investigations conducted by various authors in 2003 on the potential role of businesses in the social field, Futuribles publishes here an article by François Fatoux and Frédéric Tiberghien on the evaluation of the non-financial aspects of firms. After a brief outline of how the concept of socially responsible investment (SRI) developed, the authors discuss the main agencies concerned with assessing the social performance of firms, in France and in Europe and elsewhere. They describe the methodologies adopted by these bodies, the means used and the ways in which these efforts are gradually making firms and stock markets take account of non-financial criteria in evaluating performance.
In this regard, the growing professionalization of such agencies is clearly a measure of their acknowledged usefulness and this should strengthen their credibility in future. If in addition there is a clean-up of murky accounting practices (such as were revealed by the Enron and WorldCom scandals in 2002), there are good reasons to hope that (good) governance of firms will in the end coincide with the all-too-necessary aims of sustainable development.
As France prepares to mark the centenary of the separation of Church and State in 2005, the current concerns about the presence of religious symbols in state schools (above all, headscarves worn by Muslim girls) show that the debate is far from over. Above and beyond the issue of religion in schools, the question touches the more general problem of attitudes to Islam in French society. How can we prevent secularism, which is a core value of the French education system, from leading to the exclusion of some pupils? And what can be done so that the French version of Islam distinguishes the temporal from the spiritual?
In this debate it is hard to find more relevant reading matter than A Letter Concerning Toleration published by John Locke in 1689. Although there are plenty of texts about tolerance dating from the 17th century (Spinoza, Bayle), Locke's Letter has become the best known reference, because it is so clear and concise. Starting from a conception of the freedom of judgement essential for all human beings, Locke defines the strict limits on the rights of the two institutions (Church and State), the one concerned with man and his worldly goods, the other with matters of faith and the eternal salvation of his soul.
According to Locke, the right to toleration has nothing to do with religious convictions; instead, it is essentially a practical political issue relating to the conduct of social relations. He makes a radical distinction between politics and religion: anyone who confuses two spheres that are so different in their origins, their ends and their concerns is muddling two things that are diametrical opposites, Heaven and Earth. Tolerance in Locke's view nevertheless involves restrictions, above all with regard to convictions that seek to impinge upon the State's sphere: Roman Catholicism because it is ruled from abroad, atheism because he sees it as basically unsuited to maintaining the moral ties essential to political life. Having had some experience himself of the business of the State, Locke was totally uncompromising about the boundary between public law and divine law: his obsession as a champion of liberalism (in the sense of respect for individual liberties) was with the social disorders arising from arbitrary actions by magistrates or from religious fanaticism or, worse still, the combination of the two.
Pierre Bonnaure criticizes the gap between what European leaders say about research and their policies in practice. He stresses that, while they claim to be committed to raising investment in research to 3 % of GDP by 2010, and to making the European Union "the most dynamic competitive knowledge-based economy in the world", in reality they prove to be incapable of finding the funds necessary to do this, or of devising a proper strategy.
Bonnaure is scathing about this contradiction and shows that, despite the declared objectives, the member nations of the EU (with the notable exception of the Scandinavian countries), a fortiori the EU itself, are unable to make up the shortfall. He seeks explanations for this failure, recounting the ups and downs of French research and of EU programmes, in particular the Framework Programme for Research and Development.
In addition to the inadequacy of public funding and the problems that this can cause, Pierre Bonnaure strongly criticizes the lack of clearly defined priorities (or the choice of the wrong priorities). He argues that these failures have often become quite obvious but no policy has been devised that really deals with them. Finally, he emphasizes the urgent need for investment in R&D to be stepped up (and, at the same time, for the current arrangements to be overhauled) and he stresses the importance of focusing on those fields where Europe has special strengths.
The major advances in research into the basis of life, especially over the last two decades, threatens to lead - as discoveries and/or inventions are made and, as a result, patents are taken out - to a process of private acquisition and hence commercialisation of the world's gene stock.
Pierre-Benoit Joly and Bertrand Hervieu first outline the dangers inherent in these developments and then go on to discuss the various "innovation regimes", in particular how we have shifted from agricultural research shaped mainly by public bodies and the farming community to genome -soon to be post-genome- research dominated by multinational firms, that incite moves to strengthen intellectual property considerations.
Rather than making the argument one of public versus private control, the authors favour seeking a third way. They begin by analysing the reasons behind patent laws (whose purpose is to encourage research while fostering the spread of innovations), while at the same time they emphasize the problems in practice, especially where life-forms are involved, and the benefits and drawbacks that may arise when patent laws are applied too rigidly.
They then show that other ways of protecting inventions exist which make it possible to share financial resources and genetic material (as has happened in the case of cattle). With these precedents in mind - for which they also sketch the advantages and disadvantages- they make a plea for a European model based on sharing resources, with references to successful initiatives of this kind in both the United States and Europe.
Cette livraison annuelle de The Futurist est basée sur une sélection des " idées les plus stimulantes " parmi les articles publiés dans le magazine au cours de l'année. Pour plus d'informations, il faut donc se rapporter aux articles en question, car la liste présentée dans ce numéro est très peu détaillée et argumentée. Voici les 10 " prévisions " retenues : - les plantes génétiquement modifiées pourraient dépasser les plantes " naturelles " en surfaces plantées d'ici 2020 ; - les deux tiers de la population ...
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The text reprinted here is an extract from a book by Yves Cannac published in 1983 (Le Juste Pouvoir, Paris: Jean-Claude Lattès) in which the writer offered his views of the efficiency of the French education system and its ability to respond to public expectations and to those of pupils and their parents. The article is now 20 years old, but the views expressed remain highly relevant, judging by the criticisms of the system in the media today by those currently involved in education. Let us hope that just as schools are about to engage in a full-scale self-examination (under the aegis of the committee chaired by Claude Thélot), the plea made here will be heard: that the school system should really serve the public.
In France the issue of administrative reform, more specifically of the civil service, crops up constantly and yet is also almost a taboo subject. Nevertheless, the Conseil d'État has just produced an important report about it, and Marcel Pochard presents here some of its key ideas.
French civil servants (numbering more than 5 million people) are subject to the common law of employment, but they enjoy a special status that was intended originally to protect them from what Jules Jeanneney called "the impulses, injustices and the ever-present risk of arbitrary action by those in power". As a result they constitute a particularly strong interest group (if not several).
While reminding us of the justifications for the special position of civil servants and the key characteristics, virtues and deficiencies of the public service, Marcel Pochard argues that a thorough overhaul is now indispensable.
He stresses that the civil service is facing three major issues: its performance, since the public sector cannot remain isolated from a largely inevitable general trend; better management of human resources, since this is recognized as having a key role in organizational efficiency; and reconciling the laws governing the public service with other branches of law, especially relating to the public budget and the free movement of state employees within the European Union.
In order to meet these challenges Pochard envisages five avenues of reform. The first concerns the laws relating to employees of the state and the need to review "their range and content" without questioning the need for special arrangements. The second proposes the introduction of contracts in civil service law. The third concerns the modes of management of civil servants, the fourth the modes of personnel organization and management, including the need to separate the grade from job content. The fifth and final one stresses the need to foster a better dialogue within and among civil service departments.
"The time has undoubtedly come for a complete overhaul of the French civil service", writes Marcel Pochard, and his analysis and proposals, which are both daring and relevant, will doubtless generate a lively debate. It remains to be seen whether these recommendations will be accepted and, above all, whether anything will come of them...
In this discussion paper, Daniel Bouchacourt addresses the concept of "rupture" via two of the possible ways it can occur: as a breaking-point and as a threshold. Having defined these two concepts, he uses specific examples (epidemics, major climate events, mobility, etc.) to show in what way these two types of rupture are deeply disturbing for modern societies.
The author emphasizes in particular the regrettable failure of governments to foresee and take account of these factors in the long term. Yet, very often, many weak signals and sometimes even significant trends make it possible to see the approach of these thresholds and, if they were taken into account, it would help governments to avoid them or to make better advance provision for them.
To remedy this lack of foresight, Daniel Bouchacourt proposes four types of policy: restore greater emphasis on the medium and long terms in social and economic analysis, promote positive attitudes, reassure public opinion by providing better information, and derive greater benefit from globalisation.
Pour célébrer le centième anniversaire de sa création, Le Moniteur propose à ses lecteurs de porter un regard vers l'avenir. Les grands enjeux pour la construction à l'horizon 2020 ont été identifiés dans le domaine de l'habitat (des logements plus nombreux pour des familles atomisées), des infrastructures, de l'architecture (nouveaux matériaux et nouvelles technologies), ou encore de l'aménagement du territoire (impact de la décentralisation, arrivée des néoruraux). Les mutations à l'œuvre concernant les lieux ...
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In 1993, in a report to the French Senate on the economic and fiscal implications of the relocation abroad of manufacturing and services (L'Incidence économique et fiscale des délocalisations hors du territoire national des activités industrielles et de service. Paris: Senate, June 1993), Jean Arthuis expressed his concern about the impact of relocations on employment. His assessment then was deeply worrying: in 15 years, the domestic workforce in the sectors most affected by this trend (electronics, clothing and textiles, shoes) had been more than halved.
At the time, the report was presented by Arthuis in this journal ("Les délocalisations contre l'emploi. La sombre analyse du rapport Arthuis", Futuribles, n°181, November 1993) and he intended to shock ("the house is on fire", he wrote then). It proved to be prophetic in that he predicted the coming of the "second generation" of relocations that would affect services and intangibles.
Now indeed, 10 years later, the headlines of the European press continue to be full of news of closures of industrial plants while more and more foreign businesses are established in China, India or Eastern Europe, in high value-added sectors and research as well as basic manufacturing.
In this article, Jean Arthuis makes a gloomy assessment of the last 10 years: "the numbers of relocations have not stopped growing... Worse still, they have increased." He adds, "all sectors of the economy are now affected". Unlike those who like to think that this phenomenon is simply marginal, he argues that it is indeed a major trend but that something can be done to offset it. In his view, the solutions lie in reducing social security contributions and tax rates, in better economic coordination at European level, or in reforms of governance. In addition, he makes proposals for practical measures such as the creation of a "social" value-added tax and ecological taxation.
In the June 2003 issue of Futuribles we published an article by Michel Albert arguing that business could have a key role in promoting sustainable development. Nicole Notat has a similar viewpoint here, showing how the idea of the social responsibility of firms (SRF) has developed, driven by the growing awareness of the social and environmental risks associated with their activities and by a groundswell of opinion among both intergovernmental organizations and civil society.
Mme Notat describes the forms that reactions to these new demands can take, including ethical financing and socially responsible investments, or where necessary outright philanthropic actions. Better still, she stresses that firms can make a real contribution through preventive or proactive strategies that integrate social and environmental concerns in their management.
At the same time, Nicole Notat argues that, because there is no normative statement of what the SRF involves, it is essential to ensure that efforts conducted under this label are in fact genuine. Hence the creation of agencies like the one she heads, Vigeo, which tries to ensure the good faith and good practice on the part of firms.
For her, in any case, the issue is extremely important and the investment in it will be rewarded. A firm that os truly socially responsible has every likelihood of also being more competitive in the short term and, a fortiori, in the long term too.
Ce chapitre est extrait du Rapport Vigie 2016 de Futuribles International, qui propose un panorama structuré des connaissances et des incertitudes des experts que l'association a mobilisés pour explorer les évolutions des 15 à 35 prochaines années sur 11 thématiques.