Entreprises, travail

Cette page regroupe l'ensemble des publications de Futuribles sur cette thématique (Vigie, revue, bibliographie, études, etc.)

Forum

Entreprises, travail - Recherche, sciences, techniques

De la réglementation des biens technologiques

Pierre Bonnaure pursues an investigation published in Futuribles of the role played by information and communications technologies in economic growth. He shares here his view of the impact of regulation in this sector and stresses, in particular, the importance in economic warfare of how norms are defined; he argues that, through lack of political judgement, the French - and sometimes the Europeans - have often made bad decisions about regulations which have then handicapped them vis-à-vis their main competitors (the United States and Japan).

Revue

Entreprises, travail

Industrialisation : la destruction créatrice

The big worry used to be the relocation of jobs abroad. Now the talk is rather of "deindustrialization". The precise term matters little. The fact is that, throughout the West and especially in France, there are fears that China will become the world's factory and India will be its main provider of high-tech services, not to mention the role of the countries of Central and Eastern Europe and, more generally, the rapidly developing nations increasingly competing with the old industrialized countries.
Michel Drancourt has been an astute commentator on the business scene for almost 50 years, he was formerly responsible for industrial redeployment in Lorraine (a region in eastern France suffering from industrial decline), and he also set up GERIS (Groupement économique de reconversion industrielle et de services, an agency to promote job creation in manufacturing and services) for the firm of Thomson. Here he reacts to a recent report by DATAR, La France, puissance industrielle [France as an Industrial Power] (Paris: La documentation Française, 2004), and argues that, as well as the growing competition faced by the countries of the Old World, firms are having to contend with other major pressures: first, the race to cut prices, partly in response to pressures from big retailers, which means that productivity is considered more important than job creation; secondly, technical change (in the broadest sense) and the more general need to be innovative, with regard to products, services and processes, which alone can create new markets.
With the help of many examples, the author describes the changes under way in modern economies and stresses that, in order to create wealth and jobs, it is essential to take advantage of expanding markets (whence the need to be part of them) and to develop new products and services.

Revue

Entreprises, travail

La désindustrialisation de l’Île-de-France ?

As part of the revision of the overall plan for the Île-de-France, a study of the "deindustrialization" of the Paris region was carried out by a team of consultants for the regional directorate of the Ministry of Infrastructure. This article highlights the main findings.
The authors first outline the changes observed in France and in the Paris region over the last 30 years. This overview reveals, basically, that manufacturing employment has fallen sharply and, in spite of major improvements in productivity, the share of the national value added contributed by firms in the Île-de-France has fallen. By contrast, it appears that commercial services have expanded and have largely offset the decline in the manufacturing sector in the region.
Having given details of this finding, the authors suggest two possible scenarios based on a survey they conducted of 40 decision-makers.
The first scenario relates to firms which intend to "act so as to optimize costs and rationalize their activities", while the second relates to those that focus rather on developing certain specialties. The authors argue that, in any case, the image of Paris and its region has a decisive impact on the way the area develops and on where firms choose to locate. They go on to stress that these two scenarios are not mutually exclusive but rather correspond to different strategic approaches open to different sectors and specializations. They also discuss the impact of these strategies on where firms choose to locate within the Île-de-France and how these choices can contribute to spatial polarization.

Futurs d'antan

Entreprises, travail - Institutions - Recherche, sciences, techniques

La politique de recherche, vue de 1964. Extrait des Réflexions pour 1985

Since the European Council in Lisbon in March 2000, the European Union gave itself the target of becoming "the most dynamic and competitive knowledge-based economy in the world" by the year 2010. A target which, according to the official line, would involve bringing the European research effort to 3% of the gross domestic product (GDP) by this time. Why this figure of 3% of the GDP? Part of the response lies in an extract from the 1964 work from the Plan, Considerations for 1985 (Paris: La documentation Française), which is reproduced in this issue. From 1964, the strategists for the French Plan estimated that in two decades' time, 3% of the gross domestic product should be devoted to research, in order to put France in a favourable position among international competitors and to make it a genuine rival for the United States -which was already showing this investment rate in the research carried out in 1964! They also insisted on the necessity of increasing research performance in France, notably with the help of an appropriate recruitment policy and the creation of "suitable reception facilities" which would incidentally provide researchers with the means to work efficiently.

CR table ronde

Entreprises, travail

La responsabilité sociale des entreprises

Après avoir quitté la direction de la CFDT et le monde syndical, Nicole Notat a créé en août 2002 l’agence d’audit « Vigeo », dont l’objectif est d’être une société d’évaluation des performances sociales et environnementales des entreprises, à l’échelle européenne. Après qu’Hugues de Jouvenel ait rappelé que l’idée de responsabilité sociétale des entreprises était, à l’égal du développement durable ou de la gouvernance, en plein essor, ce qui pousse tout un chacun ...

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Bibliography

Entreprises, travail

Technology Futures Analysis : Toward Integration of the Field and New Methods

Dans cette étude, produite par le Technology Futures Analysis Methods Working Group, les auteurs dressent un portrait des nombreuses méthodes de prospective technologique existantes (cartographie, foresight, etc.) et traitent des changements technologiques qui peuvent influer sur ces méthodes d'exploration des technologies émergentes. Un tableau présente plusieurs de ces méthodes selon la famille à laquelle elles appartiennent et selon leur aspect normatif ou exploratoire. Les auteurs soutiennent que le processus est essentiel dans la conduite de tels exercices à l ...

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Bibliography

Entreprises, travail

Wild Cards, Weak Signals and Organisational Improvisation

Les Wild Cards ou ruptures possibles sont des incidents dont la probabilité d'occurrence est faible, mais dont l'impact serait important et des conséquences stratégiques pour une organisation ou une société incontournables : les événements du 11 septembre 2001 en sont l'archétype. Les effets d'une Wild Card ne sont pas forcément brutaux, ils peuvent aussi être progressifs (le changement climatique). Les Wild Cards ne sont pas toujours imprévisibles, on peut mettre en place un système pour les identifier ...

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Bibliography

Entreprises, travail - Géopolitique

« Construyendo futuros »

La faculté de sciences politiques de la UNAM (universidad nacional autónoma de México) a mis en place en 2003 un séminaire d'études prospectives. Ce séminaire, qui a intégré le noeud sudaméricain (subnodo) du Millennium Project, a mis en ligne en avril 2004 le premier numéro de sa revue électronique trimestrielle. Une rubrique " études de cas " explore l'avenir des États-Unis, avec quatre scénarios. Plusieurs textes éclairent la situation actuelle de ce pays, et des données factuelles (démographie, ressources énergétiques ...

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Bibliography

Entreprises, travail - Territoires, réseaux

Rétrospective de la prospective dans les transports et l’aménagement du territoire

De nombreux travaux de prospective en matière de nouveaux produits ont échoué en sous-estimant les difficultés de leur diffusion, ainsi que celles de création de nouveaux usages. Ces travaux ont très peu souvent fait l'objet d'analyses rétrospectives qui auraient permis de mieux comprendre les erreurs de méthode ou d'appréciation, et de repérer en fonction de quels critères certains paramètres ont été jugés importants et d'autres laissés de côté. À travers une recherche exploratoire s'appuyant sur ...

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Revue

Entreprises, travail - Société, modes de vie

Management des entreprises et diversité culturelle

The question keeps returning of whether other development models exist besides the one followed by the richest Western nations - does modernization inevitably mean abandoning local culture and adopting Western values? In other words, can a different balance between tradition and modernity be achieved involving varying forms of compromise related to local cultural requirements?
This question is frequently raised with regard to general development strategies; it is also raised, with growing urgency, in firms, where there is too often a tendency to think that overall performance depends on adopting "good practices" in management that are universally applicable, regardless of local circumstances.
Philippe d'Iribarne takes the opposite view: while acknowledging that universally applicable good management practices exist, he shows how they can be implemented in different ways from country to country so as to meet local needs.
Far from just sermonizing, he bases his argument on a survey carried out in four firms: a Mexican food processing company, a Moroccan firm making electronic components, a petrochemical firm in Argentina and a state-owned electricity supply company in Cameroon.
In each case he shows how the firms were able to devise their own ways of reconciling global and local requirements and balancing economic and social concerns. The author draws from these examples some lessons that are especially useful today as globalisation is leading multinationals to set up in business in countries with very different cultures.

CR table ronde

Entreprises, travail

Le Tiers-monde qui réussi. Nouveaux modèles

La question centrale de ce nouveau thème de recherche de Philippe d’Iribarne pourrait se résumer ainsi : comment concilier tradition et modernité en entreprise ? En d’autres termes, y a-t-il une autre voie de développement que celle qui consiste à s’inspirer du modèle occidental ? Le livre qu’il vient présenter, Le Tiers-Monde qui réussit. Nouveaux modèles, s’appuie sur des enquêtes de terrain dans des entreprises situées au Sud, et cherche à savoir comment fonctionnent les entreprises dans des ...

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Futurs d'antan

Entreprises, travail

Un précurseur de la dystopie : Jerome K. Jerome

For many people, the name of Jerome K. Jerome (1859-1927) merely conjures up his comic masterpiece, Three Men in a Boat (1889). In summing up the writer's career, P. van Tieghem states quite rightly in the Dictionnaire des littératures that "he showed a great gift for describing the amusing side of life". But, just as before 1914 another English comic writer, P.G. Wodehouse, was parodying German spy stories with which the British enjoyed frightening themselves, Jerome had the unusual idea of parodying the (not very) amusing aspects of the utopian novels of his own time, and at the same time he managed to anticipate with disturbing foresight the underlying theme of a literary genre that did not then exist: the dystopia or negative utopia.
According to the Encyclopédie de l'utopie et de la science-fiction by Pierre Versins, this strange parody that Professor Beauchamp brings to our attention was translated into French in 1934 in a Belgian literary review (under the title "The New Utopia, or the World in the Year 3000"), then in 1938 was published in a little book entitled Ah! le beau rêve... (Oh What a Beautiful Dream!) but it has not been possible to trace them.

Revue

Économie, emploi - Entreprises, travail

Le capitalisme unijambiste

In the United States and in Europe, increasing numbers of business executives are on trial, accused of fraud or, more precisely, of having artificially inflated the value of their stocks and having thereby betrayed the trust of their partners.
Drawing from a study carried out by Futuribles, André-Yves Portnoff points out that one of the principal responsibilities of senior executives should be to maintain a balance between the interests of shareholders and those of the other groups concerned: customers, workforce, suppliers, etc. He stresses how much capitalism is likely to suffer as a result of these practices, which are motivated solely by the lure of short-term financial gain, and of a lack of a collective moral stance which would sustain values that are far more important for business performance in the medium and long term.

Bibliography

Entreprises, travail - Recherche, sciences, techniques

Science, technologie et industrie : perspectives de l’OCDE 2004

Les pays de l'OCDE sont davantage attentifs à la nécessité d'investir dans la recherche et le développement pour doper leurs performances économiques et rester compétitifs face à des économies comme la Chine et Israël, dont les moyens progressent rapidement, selon cette édition des Perspectives de la science, de la technologie et de l'industrie de l'OCDE. Entre 1995 et 2002, la Chine a doublé ses dépenses de recherche-développement (R&D) qui, en pourcentage du produit intérieur brut (PIB ...

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Bibliography

Entreprises, travail - Recherche, sciences, techniques

Future Issues of Science and Technology

Le Millennium Project a impliqué 237 scientifiques, prospectivistes et décideurs de tous les continents dans une enquête Delphi sur l'avenir des sciences et techniques à un horizon de 25 ans. Le questionnaire de départ a été élaboré avec des attachés scientifiques d'ambassades, puis soumis aux participants qui devaient classer les questions en fonction de l'importance qu'ils leur donnaient personnellement et le degré de priorité qu'elles présentaient pour leur pays. Un deuxième round a consisté à ...

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Revue

Économie, emploi - Entreprises, travail

L’évaluation extra-financière des entreprises

Pursuing the investigations conducted by various authors in 2003 on the potential role of businesses in the social field, Futuribles publishes here an article by François Fatoux and Frédéric Tiberghien on the evaluation of the non-financial aspects of firms. After a brief outline of how the concept of socially responsible investment (SRI) developed, the authors discuss the main agencies concerned with assessing the social performance of firms, in France and in Europe and elsewhere. They describe the methodologies adopted by these bodies, the means used and the ways in which these efforts are gradually making firms and stock markets take account of non-financial criteria in evaluating performance.
In this regard, the growing professionalization of such agencies is clearly a measure of their acknowledged usefulness and this should strengthen their credibility in future. If in addition there is a clean-up of murky accounting practices (such as were revealed by the Enron and WorldCom scandals in 2002), there are good reasons to hope that (good) governance of firms will in the end coincide with the all-too-necessary aims of sustainable development.

Bibliography

Économie, emploi - Entreprises, travail - Population

La Gestion prospective des âges

Sous l'effet combiné de l'allongement de la durée de la vie et du recul de la fécondité, nos sociétés vieillissent inexorablement. Cependant, paradoxalement, la structure par âge des entreprises françaises ne semble pas refléter les évolutions démographiques générales : elle se trouve plutôt être le résultat de décisions prises en matière de « gestion des âges », i.e. d'utilisation de l'âge comme critère de gestion de l'emploi, sous l'influence de facteurs économiques et sociologiques. Sur la ...

(179 more words)

Bibliography

Entreprises, travail - Recherche, sciences, techniques

Le Pari de l’intelligence. Des puces, des souris et des hommes / Betting on Intelligence. Of Chips, Mice and Men

Renforcer le pouvoir des citoyens et l’activité, désenclaver les territoires : Internet y contribue, mais il favorise aussi des hégémonies. Il faut faire des choix techniques et organisationnels conformes à nos valeurs, en optant pour des standards ouverts, en préservant la vie privée. La société de la connaissance n’a pas de sens si on bâillonne la connaissance, nous exposant à de nouveaux Tchernobyl. Exploitons le numérique pour qu’entreprises et société fassent réellement le pari de l’intelligence.

Chapitre Entreprises, travail

Ce chapitre est extrait du Rapport Vigie 2016 de Futuribles International, qui propose un panorama structuré des connaissances et des incertitudes des experts que l'association a mobilisés pour explorer les évolutions des 15 à 35 prochaines années sur 11 thématiques.