Cette page regroupe l'ensemble des publications de Futuribles sur cette thématique (Vigie, revue, bibliographie, études, etc.)
There have been an increasing number of foresight exercises in the field of energy and global warming in recent years, as we have seen from the articles devoted to these questions by Futuribles in 2011 (both in this special issue and in the April number). It is certainly the case that the goals for greenhouse-gas emission reduction are rather ambitious, particularly in France, it being the aim of the 2005 French framework law on energy to reduce carbon gas discharges by a factor of four.
Among these scenarios, the Négatep scenario developed by Claude Acket and Pierre Bacher from the “Sauvons le climat” [Let’s save the climate] Association proposes to achieve this (“factor 4”) goal in France by 2050 by reducing fossil fuel use by 75% and replacing this as quickly as possible with electricity produced from non-carbon-gas-emitting sources – chiefly, nuclear power and renewables. The authors lay out their goals here, backed up by figures, comparing these with the reference scenario. They also show the path that must be followed to arrive at these goals, particularly in the residential and tertiary sectors, and in transport and industry (through control of needs and recourse to alternative energy sources).
They close by comparing the Négatep scenario with two other more recent scenarios aimed also at reducing greenhouse gas emissions, on the one hand in Europe, and on the other in Germany. The comparison confirms that they were right to rely on electricity as a substitute for oil, but gives them cause for concern in respect of the consequences (formidable in their view) that the replacement of nuclear power and coal energy by intermittent renewable energies might have in Europe, both with regard to costs and to the effects on the power network.
Despite the alerts that have been sounded since 1992, as international conferences aimed at curbing global warming have come and gone, and despite the plans for reducing the use of fossil fuel resources that call for the moderation of energy consumption, few actions or incentive measures (and even fewer directives) have actually been developed to act on the demand for energy. Yet, as Henri-Luc Thibault and El Habib El Andaloussi show here, some very concrete measures can have major effects in this area. This is the case with everything relating to the improvement of energy efficiency in building, where housing conditions, the housing stock and related energy consumption (heating, air-conditioning etc.) are concerned. Thibault and El Andaloussi show the potential impact of such measures in the Mediterranean region.
Basing themselves on the work of the “Plan Bleu” organization, which has worked out a revolutionary scenario for the energy field in the countries of the southern and eastern Mediterranean (to 2030), they begin by recalling the importance of buildings in regional energy consumption and the various levers that might be used to reduce that consumption (regulation, materials, efficiency of machinery etc.). In such a scenario, the potential for energy savings in this sector would seem considerable. Moreover, this would enable a substantial decrease in greenhouse gas emissions to be achieved, and would also have very positive effects in terms of job creation. In conclusion, the authors point out the need for investment over 20 years, depending on the particular country concerned, to put in place the five flagship measures of energy saving, which would be genuine investments for the future…
Investment in R&D and innovation has always been, and still remains, a key requirement for the economic success of states. The developed countries learned this long ago, particularly the triad of the USA, Europe and Japan, which were for a long time leaders in the field. However, for several years now, the relative part played by these countries in global research and development has increasingly been challenged by a number of emerging countries, particularly in Asia. And though the economic crisis of recent years has been the occasion for many developed countries to reassert the essential role of investment in R&D and innovation in recovery strategies, it is not certain that this will actually enable those countries to reverse the latent trend that sees the 19th- and 20th-century pioneers losing their supremacy.
Pierre Papon shows here how global research potentials have evolved and which are the leading countries in this area. He also outlines the specializations of the main global actors in international scientific and technical production. He reminds us, in particular, of the slow (but manifest) erosion of European positions in global scientific competition, even if the quality of production remains intact, and stresses, in parallel with this, the rise of the emergent nations, with China and Brazil at their head. Where industrial research is concerned, the trend, according to Pierre Papon, runs in the same direction and it will perhaps be a USA-China-Japan triad that will take over leadership in the coming years. If, indeed, the fine slogans calling for an R&D-led recovery turn out to be as ineffective as the Lisbon strategy was stillborn, it is highly unlikely that the states of Europe will come out of this crisis unscathed in terms of their international scientific and technical positioning.
We have on many occasions sounded the alarm in Futuribles regarding the situation of France and Europe, where economies have been under par for more than 30 years now and unable to sustain the pace of innovation appropriate for developed countries in the context of the early 21st century. We have, admittedly, seen attempts to re-stimulate these economies, no doubt the most emblematic of these in the recent period being the “Lisbon Strategy”, launched in March 2000, whose main objective was to make the European Union “the most competitive, most dynamic knowledge economy in the world” by 2010. But we are now in mid-2011 and the least that can be said is that the objective is some way from being fulfilled. And, re-reading the diagnosis and recommendations of André Danzin in 1979 (Science et renaissance de l’Europe. Paris: Chotard et associés, 1979), there is reason for concern about the Old Continent’s capacity to face up to the scientific and technical challenges of the present and – most importantly – of the future.
Pierre Bonnaure has re-read the book André Danzin wrote in 1979 following a request from the European Commission that he formulate suggestions for using science and technology to re-stimulate Europe. After recalling the context of the late 1970s, Pierre Bonnaure shows here how Danzin’s findings are still topical (Europe falling behind in global competition and failing to innovate). He takes up again the various recommendations formulated at the time which, in many people’s view, still have currency (focussing on high-value-added activities, playing the card of the energy-efficient, environmentally-friendly sectors, investing in information technology and the eco-life sciences). And though some of these – particularly in the area of research organization in Europe – have been implemented in the three decades since Danzin’s work appeared, we must admit that Europeans are still awaiting the “rebirth of Europe” and, if things are left too long, it will no longer be possible to draw on these recommendations to contribute to it.
Hervé Sérieyx et André-Yves Portnoff sont partis du constat que si la France décline sur la scène internationale c’est faute d’exploiter intelligemment son riche potentiel humain. Pour échapper à ce déclin, ils exhortent les Français à l’action citoyenne dans les domaines clefs que sont l’École, l’entreprise, la société Web 2.0 et le territoire.
Drawing on the various testimonies presented in this dossier on French companies that have succeeded by innovating, particularly in their managerial practices, André-Yves Portnoff outlines a number of key factors taken from the experience of these actors. He stresses, for example, the importance of human relations within companies, of the new technological dispensation, which means that the occupational and personal spheres increasingly overlap, of the need to seek out and exploit synergies, and of the crucial role played by staff training, attention to customer expectations etc.
In the course of his analysis, he offers 12 points of reference that are essential for the production of quality goods and services in France – and in Europe – in conditions that ensure value creation for all stakeholders. These are 12 starting points for the thinking that will be done within the framework of the ETIC study (Entreprises et territoires au défi de l’innovation et de la compétitivité) currently being launched by the Futuribles International Association with André-Yves Portnoff and Hugues de Jouvenel (Director General of the Futuribles Group) as its scientific directors. The study will, of course, go much further in analyzing and proposing precise strategic approaches and will also look more closely at local and regional dynamics and the role played in them by the local economic fabric.
Each year, within the framework of its “Vigie” pooled horizon-scanning system, the Futuribles International Association publishes a report surveying the long-term and emergent trends in the strategic environment of companies and organizations over the next 10-20 years, which complements the work done over the course of the year. The Rapport Vigie 2011, published in late December 2010, offers a foresight analysis of seven key issues, before going on to propose four scenarios for France in the years to 2030.
Cécile Désaunay and François de Jouvenel, who made very major contributions to the production of this report (available in its entirety only to partner-members of Futuribles International), offer a summary in this article of these four scenarios relating to France in 2030: “Competitiveness and Social Responsibility of Companies”, “Dual Society”, “Broad Middle Class” and “Local Economy”. As in all exploratory foresight studies, the authors do not favour any of the scenarios in particular, the four of them enabling the reader to form an idea of the various possible trajectories for France and the French over the next 20 years.
For the moment, all options remain open. It is for the decision-makers to bend their policies in the direction required by their preferred scenario and for public opinion to tell its representatives clearly which future seems most desirable.
In February 2010, 50 leaders of the largest European industrial groups presented their “Vision for a Competitive Europe in 2025” and, in so doing, criticized Europe’s industrial decline. However, as MIT had done 20 years earlier in its study Made in America (Cambridge [Mass.]: Massachusetts Institute of Technology Press, 1989), they stressed at the same time that this decline was not inevitable, but that Europe had to say goodbye to managerial practices that had turned out over recent decades to be suicidal, both for companies and for regions/localities and the overall performance of the European economies – and the French economy in particular.
Since then, things have scarcely improved: any number of alarms have been sounded and there have been countless grand speeches rehashing the knowledge-economy-related objectives that were originally set for 2010, but are now being spoken of as relating to 2020. These include the creation of competitiveness hubs, a reinvigorated research effort, the imperative to innovate, etc. And yet, confronted with ever more intense competition, companies and regions/localities often remain in a state of uncertainty: what is to be done concretely? How can innovations actually be promoted that are able to improve their overall performance and lasting competitiveness?
To attempt to answer these questions, the Futuribles International Association has decided to launch a subscription study aimed at identifying directly on the ground what are the good practices initiated by companies and regional/local authorities, at exploring how these have been implemented and what very concrete lessons can be learned from them, so that they may be transposed from one company or region/locality to another.
By way of prologue to this study, six precise cases are presented in detail by actors on the ground, these latter being, for the most part, entrepreneurs: the Meyer-Sansbœuf rope manufacturing concern (Haut-Rhin); the fencing designer and manufacturer Lippi (Charente); the shoe manufacturer Samson (Maine-et-Loire); the clothes-peg producer Laguelle (Allier); the participation of a dozen or so companies from the Industries and Agro-Resources Competitiveness Hub (in Picardie) in the Futurol project (on second-generation biofuels); and the software designer CLT Services (Paris). Drawing on these six case-studies and much other original evidence and experience, André-Yves Portnoff offers some broader, deeper thinking on the actors in the current “intelligence revolution”, thinking which shows that it is possible to produce quality goods and services in France and Europe, and to be competitive without cutting back on human capital (far from it, indeed) – all this contributing to the identification of some primary key factors of lasting success for companies and regions/localities.
In a book published in late 2010, Bertrand Collomb and Michel Drancourt set out a “defence of business” (Plaidoyer pour l’entreprise. Paris: François Bourin, 2010). The authors share a passion for business, the first as a director for almost 20 years of the Lafarge Group (a leading player in the building materials sector), the second through a great many activities, including the writing of various books on that peculiar entity that is the business enterprise. In this Defence of Business, they describe the new challenges facing enterprise and enterprises in these early years of the 21st century. They go on to outline the fundamental aspects of the business enterprise – the basis of its substance and the way it functions today – and, lastly, propose a number of choices that have to be made if it is to be part of a prosperous future.
Bernard de Montmorillon, a professor specializing in organization theory and strategic decision-making, has read this work for Futuribles and lays out in this review the key elements and major lessons to be drawn from it.
The growing refinement of information technology and its spread throughout modern societies has accustomed individuals, wherever they may be, to being constantly in contact with their fellows and also connected to their various private electronic devices (telephone, smartphone, Internet etc.). Such “omnipresence” could not but have effects on the world of work. As André-Yves Portnoff shows here, drawing on various recent studies on workers’ aspirations for teleworking and the impact of technology on the relationship with their companies, employees are less and less keen to forego that same omnipresence of intervention in the occupational sphere.
Awareness of the possibilities opened up by technology lends a new meaning to partial teleworking, which becomes a way to manage private and working time more flexibly. Most importantly, this could be of benefit to everyone since several studies confirm that when this flexibility, which is desired by a majority of workers, is achieved, appreciable productivity gains and savings for companies ensue, alongside positive effects for the environment. However, to have people working partially away from their desks implies a less Taylorist management of the workforce and a strategy of exploiting mobility that represent radical cultural change for many organizations, particularly in France.
Les tendances qu’annonçait la note d’alerte n° 58 sont confirmées par le dernier tableau de bord européen de la R&D industrielle : les entreprises de l’Union européenne (UE) et des États-Unis ont réduit leur effort, alors que le Japon maintient le sien malgré la crise et que la Corée du Sud, la Chine et l’Inde progressent rapidement. Beaucoup de champions européens et français risquent de perdre des marchés dans les prochaines années et la relève par de ...
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Bertrand Collomb et Michel Drancourt croient tous deux que les entreprises d’envergure internationale, telles que Lafarge, ont un rôle à jouer pour relever le double défi de la globalisation et de la sauvegarde de la planète. Dans l’ouvrage qu’ils viennent de publier ensemble, "Plaidoyer pour l’entreprise", ils appellent à retrouver confiance dans la capacité des entreprises à tirer profit des nouveaux horizons que leur offre un monde globalisé, et à infléchir le choix des politiques dans ...
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Le secteur du transport de marchandises fait l'objet de nombreuses études, car il constitue un maillon indispensable de l'activité économique, bien qu'il ne produise que peu de richesse économique. Dans ce rapport, plusieurs experts synthétisent les enjeux et les priorités pour le secteur au cours des prochaines années, avant de formuler des objectifs et des propositions. Ils rappellent tout d'abord qu'en France, le secteur du transport de fret peut compter sur une bonne maîtrise de ...
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Les auteurs de ce rapport de la Délégation sénatoriale à la prospective mettent en garde contre les risques d’une dégradation des conditions économiques et sociales si rien n’est fait pour améliorer le pacte social dans l’entreprise, notamment la reconnaissance des salariés et la revalorisation du travail. Depuis 30 ans, le pacte social dans les entreprises françaises a été progressivement remanié sous la pression de contraintes économiques externes (mondialisation, concurrence accrue) et internes (priorité croissante donnée aux profits ...
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Au terme de cinq années de négociations, l’Organisation internationale de normalisation (ISO) a publié le 1er novembre 2010 la première norme internationale sur la responsabilité sociétale à destination des entreprises et des administrations. Une telle norme pourrait permettre l’uniformisation des politiques de RSE et leur diffusion dans le monde entier. L’absence de certification associée risque toutefois de porter préjudice à cette ambition.
Les docteurs (titulaires d’un bac + 8) français éprouvent des difficultés croissantes à s’insérer sur le marché de l’emploi, au point que les titulaires d’un master (bac + 5) sont aujourd’hui mieux lotis qu’eux. Au-delà du chômage, c’est d’un véritable manque de reconnaissance sociale qu’ils souffrent, notamment de la part du secteur privé, dans lequel ils sont pourtant de plus en plus appelés à travailler.
L’enjeu des conditions de travail soulève de multiples questions : Quelles sont les frontières du champ ? Les dernières décennies sont-elles marquées par une amélioration de ces conditions ou par une dégradation ? Quels sont les déterminants de cette évolution ? Qui sont les acteurs impliqués sur ce champ et quelles en sont les modalités de régulation ? C’est sur ces questions que cette note tente d’apporter quelques éclairages sans prétention à l’exhaustivité ni à la scientificité.
“Today more than ever, everything seems to have to be reinvented”, assert Guy Aznar and Stéphane Ely at the very beginning of their article. They are then concerned to show that two ways of thinking may be employed to this end: the first draws on the “logical approach” to which “scientists” appeal, the second is the “creative thinking” approach. And, as the authors stress, the two methods are perhaps more complementary than is normally imagined.
How does this creative thought function? How can it be stimulated? Aznar and Ely describe its specific features and explain some elements of method, particularly distinguishing between the dynamic posture (a two-stroke engine), which they dub a rapid, quantitative strategy, and the sensitive posture (a three-stroke engine), a “hazy, slow, intuitive strategy”.
In this way they show how the indispensable “emergence of ideas” can be brought about, which we so need today to free us from patterns of thought that are often inadequate, already outdated and, hence, of little use for grasping and constructing the future.
Les salariés français travaillent dans des entreprises de plus en plus grandes, mais sur des lieux de travail de plus en plus petits. Cette tendance paradoxale, amorcée depuis les années 1970, se vérifie dans tous les secteurs de l’économie française. Si elle est gage de dynamisme économique, une multiplication d’établissements dans une région ne garantit pas pour autant une forte autonomie économique.
The founder of the Taiwanese Acer electronics corporation has just told American microcomputer builders that they will disappear within the next 20 years. He is undoubtedly basing his argument on numerous regrettable precedents and particularly on the practice, sadly widespread in the United States and also in Europe, of outsourcing and relocating industrial production to emerging low-wage economies. This is a practice that is too common, asserts André-Yves Portnoff, in the old Western countries, which believe they can retain the “nobler” tasks of research and innovation for themselves while offloading the more low-level functions of manufacture to others.
André-Yves Portnoff condemns this illusion here and shows how such a strategy is ultimately suicidal, both at the economic and the social levels (particularly with regard to jobs), since we cannot on a long-term basis divide up functions that form a coherent system without killing off our own capacities for innovation.
Having outlined the grievous effects of this widespread practice, he explains that it is a product of a total lack of understanding of what a “knowledge economy” means (though he himself prefers to speak of a “revolution of intelligence” and a “rise of immaterial factors”). Basing his argument on numerous examples, Portnoff shows lastly that a rebirth of Europe is possible and that the key to success is… a return to industry, but an industry not in any sense in thrall to the whims of shareholders solely preoccupied with immediate financial returns, but supported by investors with the patience required for an industrial revival based on the intelligence and collective resolve of all those within the company and its stakeholders.
Avec l’échange de courriers électroniques et la messagerie instantanée, la navigation sur le World Wide Web est l’un des usages les plus emblématiques d’Internet. Mais le modèle fondateur de l’accès au Web par la navigation ouverte, et la consultation de ressources essentiellement diverses, pourrait être progressivement battu en brèche, au profit d’usages à la fois moins riches et plus contraints — en dehors même de tout « verrouillage » politique de la Toile.
La société allemande Z-Punkt a lancé une enquête auprès de chefs d’entreprises, de chercheurs et de consultants pour identifier les marchés du futur, ceux dont la croissance potentielle à l’horizon 2020 sera, selon eux, la plus forte. L’originalité de cette enquête est que ces marchés ont été retenus en fonction de leur capacité à résoudre les problèmes mondiaux (changement climatique, vieillissement de la population, nécessité de développer des sources d’énergie alternatives, etc.), partant du principe que ...
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L’enquête quinquennale de l’INSEE (Institut national de la statistique et des études économiques) sur les créations d’entreprises révèle que la moitié des 215 000 entreprises créées en 2002 existaient toujours cinq ans après, en 2007. Le nombre de nouvelles entreprises a augmenté depuis 1994, ainsi que leurs chances de survie. Les conditions de mise en œuvre du projet (secteur d’activité, forme juridique choisie, montant de l’investissement initial) influent sur la pérennité de l’entreprise, ainsi ...
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Ce chapitre est extrait du Rapport Vigie 2016 de Futuribles International, qui propose un panorama structuré des connaissances et des incertitudes des experts que l'association a mobilisés pour explorer les évolutions des 15 à 35 prochaines années sur 11 thématiques.