Éducation

Cette page regroupe l'ensemble des publications de Futuribles sur cette thématique (Vigie, revue, bibliographie, études, etc.)

Note de veille

Économie, emploi - Éducation

La « carte bleue » européenne, une réponse adaptée à l’immigration qualifiée ?

Le Canada compte 10 % de travailleurs qualifiés issus de pays tiers dans sa population active, les États-Unis 6 %, la Suisse 5,5 %, mais l’Union européenne (UE) seulement 1,7 %. Forte de ce constat, l’UE a lancé en 2007 l’idée d’une « carte bleue » européenne, basée sur l’exemple de la green card américaine, et reprise dans le cadre du Pacte européen sur l’immigration et l’asile adopté par le Conseil européen des 15 et 16 octobre ...

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Note de veille

Économie, emploi - Éducation - Société, modes de vie

Les zones urbaines sensibles : ghettos mais pas trop

Il n'est pas pertinent d'appliquer systématiquement le modèle d'enfermement et de relégation sociale aux quartiers défavorisés, révèle le Céreq (Centre d'étude et de recherches sur les qualifications). Si les zones urbaines sensibles relèvent de logiques ségrégatives, elles sont aussi des territoires d'accueil en recomposition sociale permanente.

Revue

Économie, emploi - Éducation - Entreprises, travail - Population

The Global Labour Force to 2030. A Summary of Futuribles International's Vigie 2008 Report

Each year, as part of its system of mutualized monitoring, the "Futuribles International" Association publishes a report surveying long-term and emerging trends in the strategic environment of enterprises and organizations over the next 10 to 20 years. The report serves as a complement to the association's work carried out over the year. Published in late November 2008, the subject of the Vigie 2008 Report was the global labour force in the years to 2030.
Céline Laisney, who co-directed the production of the 2008 report, presents an outline of it here, the full document being reserved for the members and partners of the Vigie system. She recalls firstly the main hypotheses, trends and uncertainties identified in the various fields covered by the report - tracking of the working-age population, labour migrations, workers' skills, labour cost differentials, labour legislation, social welfare and workers' health - which served as a basis for developing the microscenarios. She then outlines the four major scenarios, built up by Futuribles out of these microscenarios, with regard to the global workforce in the years to 2030. These include a trend scenario ("human development as a flight of wild geese"), a "dual labour-market" scenario (a "flattening" of the world and increased inequality), a scenario in which human capital becomes the main concern of states as part of a fallback to protectionism, and, lastly, a more virtuous scenario in which citizen enterprise predominates.

Note de veille

Éducation - Entreprises, travail - Institutions

Les « charter schools » aux États-Unis : des écoles innovantes, et efficaces ?

Les charter schools (écoles à charte) que défend Barack Obama pourraient, selon la Brookings Institution, ne pas être la réforme la plus efficace pour améliorer le système d'enseignement secondaire américain.

Note de veille

Éducation

Pénurie de diplômés en Californie

L'économie californienne est en pénurie de diplômés de l'université, situation qui ne devrait pas s'améliorer d'ici 2025. Selon le Public Policy Institute of California, la situation serait généralisable à l'ensemble des États-Unis, où le problème de l'insertion professionnelle de la main-d'oeuvre, diplômée de l'université ou non, se pose avec acuité. L'économie californienne est en pénurie de diplômés de l'université, situation qui ne devrait pas s'améliorer d'ici 2025. Selon ...

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Bibliography

Éducation - Recherche, sciences, techniques

« La préparation de l’avenir »

La crise économique et financière actuelle, quelles que soient son ampleur et sa durée, ne doit pas détourner la France de la « préparation de l’avenir », indique Eric de la Maisonneuve en guise de préface à ce numéro de la revue Agir. D’où l’importance des articles regroupés ici selon trois grands enjeux : la formation des élites, la recherche et l’innovation. Dans le domaine de la formation des élites, les articles proposés tentent de comprendre les origines du ...

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Bibliography

Éducation

Higher Education to 2030, Volume 2 : Globalisation

Dans le premier volume de Higher Education to 2030, l?OCDE s?intéressait aux évolutions démographiques susceptibles d?avoir un impact sur l?enseignement supérieur. Dans ce deuxième, elle étudie les caractéristiques et les perspectives de la mondialisation des écoles et des élèves du supérieur. Le nombre d?étudiants étrangers dans les pays de l?OCDE a augmenté de 90 % entre 1998 et 2007, date à laquelle ils étaient plus de 2,5 millions. Environ 75 % des étudiants étrangers dans ...

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Bibliography

Éducation

Mots-clés de la prospective territoriale

Le Collège européen de Prospective territoriale, fondé en avril 2004, à l’initiative de la Délégation interministérielle à l’aménagement et à la compétitivité des territoires (DIACT, ex-DATAR) a élaboré une base d’informations relative à la prospective territoriale et construit un glossaire en cours d’édition et de diffusion. Le présent ouvrage constitue une sélection des mots de ce glossaire, considérés comme clés par les praticiens de la prospective territoriale, en particulier, et plus généralement par les acteurs territoriaux.

Chapitre de rapport annuel vigie

Éducation - Entreprises, travail

Chapitre 3 du rapport Vigie 2008 : Les compétences de la main-d’oeuvre mondiale à l’horizon 2030

D’ici 2030, la part de la population de 15 à 64 ans ayant déjà aujourd’hui achevé ses études ira logiquement se réduisant et, en 2030, environ 55 % des quelque 5,4 milliards de personnes qui composeront la population d’âge actif (15-64 ans), soit plus ou moins trois milliards de personnes, ont aujourd’hui moins de 15 ans ou ne sont pas encore nées. Ces quelques chiffres montrent que les compétences de la main-d’œuvre de demain ne ...

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Rapport annuel vigie

Éducation - Entreprises, travail - Population

Rapport Vigie 2008. La main-d’œuvre mondiale à l’horizon 2030

Il y a quelques mois, les journaux français titraient encore sur la baisse du chômage, l'amorce d'un retour à une situation de chômage frictionnel, voire de pénurie(s) de main d'oeuvre ; la crise intervient, les périodes de chômage technique se multiplient, les licenciements et dépôts de bilan vont bon train ; bref, les perspectives de l'emploi s'assombrissent, tant en France qu'à l'étranger. La crise économique majeure que nous traversons peut être un accélérateur des ...

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Revue

Éducation - Géopolitique

The Assessment of Adolescents. The Programme for International Student Assessment (PISA)

In order to complete its instruments for the comparative evaluation of teaching systems, the OECD has, since 2000, had in place an international programme for the assessment of students, known as PISA. Futuribles devoted an article to the programme in 2002 (no. 279), outlining its methodology and first findings. Since then, other assessments have been carried out as part of the scheme, in 2003 and 2006, and more are already planned for 2009, 2012 and 2015, covering between 40 and 60 countries, depending on the year.
Bernard Hugonnier takes another look at PISA, as it presents itself today, showing the importance of the programme and the advantages it offers for public decision-making. After reminding us of the originality of PISA so far as international comparisons are concerned, he provides a detailed account of the assessment methods used and a presentation of the planned future assessment cycles. He also analyses the latest findings of the (2006) PISA surveys and shows the lessons these provide on the level of students and the weaknesses they may reveal in the educational systems of the participating countries. He particularly stresses that good performances do not necessarily reflect economic investment in education, but rather the effectiveness of systems and their capacity to assist and integrate students from humbler backgrounds.
Like all instruments of evaluation, this one has its faults. For example, it covers only students aged 15 who are not re-assessed later. It is, nevertheless, an essential tool for education policy and, moreover, one that is proposing to develop and to expand its field of investigation.

Note de veille

Économie, emploi - Éducation

Les jeunes Français sans diplôme face à l’emploi

Dans un récent rapport, le CERC (Conseil de l'emploi, des revenus et de la cohésion sociale) tente de comprendre qui sont les jeunes sans diplôme en France, comment cette population a évolué au cours des dernières décennies et comment elle évoluera à l'avenir, une problématique analysée récemment par Julien Damon.

Note de veille

Éducation

Performances du système scolaire français

Combien de jeunes sortent du système scolaire " sans qualification " ? Les données qui alimentent aujourd'hui le débat public prêtent d'abord aujourd'hui à confusion. Sans être nécessairement farfelus, les chiffres ne désignent pas toujours les mêmes réalités.

Analyse prospective

Éducation

Métiers et qualifications en Europe : projections à l’horizon 2015

Des travaux portant sur la prospective des métiers sont souvent réalisés au niveau national, avec pour objectif de permettre l'adéquation des formations des arrivants sur le marché du travail - ou la mise à jour des compétences de ceux qui y sont déjà - aux besoins de l'économie. L'anticipation en la matière est une nécessité évidente ; pour autant, l'exercice est loin d'être aisé. Alors que la main-d'oeuvre est de plus en plus mobile au niveau international ...

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Bibliography

Économie, emploi - Éducation

Prospective de l’emploi dans le domaine des géosciences à l’horizon 2020

Les métiers des géosciences, qui concernent, entre autres, l'industrie extractive (mines, carrières, pétrole, gaz...), les infrastructures et l'environnement (traitement des sols pollués, déchets, stockages souterrains...) seront directement concernés par les modifications à venir dans le secteur énergétique. Une étude du ministère de l'Enseignement supérieur et de la Recherche propose de revenir sur les spécificités de ce secteur en France. À partir d'une comparaison avec d'autres pays, sont mis en lumière les défis à relever pour ...

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Bibliography

Éducation

Educación terciaria transfronteriza. Una nueva perspectiva para la integración

Cet ouvrage fait partie du cadre théorique de l'étude de l'organisation intergouvernementale CAB (Convenio Andrès Bello) et de ses 13 pays membres, L'Éducation supérieure pour la transformation productive et sociale équitable. Le titre se réfère au fait que l'éducation du futur sera amenée à dépasser le cadre des frontières nationales. Dans l'éducation supérieure du futur interviendront des facteurs tels que les changements démographiques et les migrations, la nécessité de garantir un accès équitable à l ...

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Bibliography

Éducation

L’Enseignement supérieur à l’horizon 2030. Volume 1 : démographie

L?OCDE propose au lecteur une vision globale, internationale et prospective des systèmes d?enseignement supérieur en tant que leurs évolutions sont liées, dans une certaine mesure au moins, à des dynamiques démographiques. Entre vieillissement du corps professoral, diversité ethnique ou culturelle des étudiants, ou encore inégalités entre hommes et femmes, cette étude met en exergue l?importance des composantes démographiques et sociologiques dans une évaluation des politiques publiques dans le domaine de l?enseignement supérieur. Une nuance cependant est ...

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Bibliography

Éducation - Recherche, sciences, techniques

El Futuro de la educación a distancia y del e-learning en América Latina. Una visión prospectiva

L’Instituto latinoamericano de la comunicacion educativa a organisé, en 2006, une démarche prospective autour de la thématique du « futur de l’éducation à distance et du e-learning en Amérique latine » à l’horizon 2025. Le présent ouvrage propose un bilan de ces travaux auxquels ont participé des experts latinoaméricains de l’éducation, des nouvelles technologies et de la prospective. Dans la première partie sont analysées les évolutions récentes de l’éducation en Amérique latine et dans le monde et ...

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Revue

Éducation

Continuous Educational and Professional Guidance as a Means of Improving Chances in Education and Employment

At the end of September 2007, the French government set up a commission, chaired by Marcel Pochard, to examine how the profession of teacher is changing. The commission has been asked to produce a "green paper" assessing the current state of the profession, which in turn is to be the basis for a "white paper" with a view to reforming the present arrangements. The question of the educational guidance of schoolchildren will probably be among the topics discussed by the commission, given that teachers are so directly involved in it, which is why Futuribles is publishing this article by Claude Vimont on the subject of educational and careers guidance in France.
According to Claude Vimont, there are several problems with the way that such guidance is given at present, leading to a high failure rate and consequently a poor return on expenditure. Such is his first conclusion, backed up by international comparisons.
He makes a case for "continuous guidance in a more efficient educational system and a more mobile society" and proposes a reassessment of when guidance is offered in the course of the school and professional career (in line with the generally accepted idea of "lifelong learning") in order to take account of today's economic uncertainties and the fact that people are working for longer. In addition to a reform of the apprenticeship system and making university courses more "vocational", he argues that two changes are necessary: an interview with failing students to offer them different options, and the creation of an independent public body responsible for information and guidance to replace the existing ones. For adults, despite the handful of measures already in place (e.g. relating to the recognition of professional experience), he says that the scope is endless: devising career paths that optimize job security, helping people to make career decisions that take account of foreseeable developments in employment, etc. What is important is to develop a truly integrated vision of educational and professional guidance throughout people's lives ...

Revue

Éducation

Factors for Change in the World of French State Education

For more than 20 years, successive Ministries of Education in France have launched debates about possible reforms to the sector. Various pieces of legislation have been passed (in 1985, 1989, 2005) but the problems persist, in particular with regard to the management of the teaching staff in terms of both quantity and quality. The government elected in June 2007 has therefore set up yet another commission (chaired by Marcel Pochard) to examine the topic with a view ultimately to a further reform of the teaching profession..
The future of education, as perceived through the changes affecting the teachers and their knowledge and skills, is a major challenge. In this article Claude Seibel, who has long studied these matters, focusses on two key concerns in this context: the main aim, which is to ensure equal opportunities for all pupils and that they should successfully complete their education; and the opportunity offered as the present generation of teachers retires to redefine what is expected of the profession.
He goes on to present seven decisive factors required to bring about change in the French state education system: overhaul the way teachers are moved between jobs, encourage greater mobility, revive project-based teaching, optimize the use of information technologies, rethink arrangements for information and guidance, reduce failure rates and promote "education for success". This is an important contribution to the forthcoming debate.

Revue

Éducation

Three Scenarios for Transnational Higher Education

Stéphan Vincent-Lancrin and Kurt Larsen present in this article the main trends in transnational higher education over the last decade and the prospects for the future. Among these trends, they stress in particular the growth in numbers of students registered for foreign educational programmes (whether in another country, imported into their own country or available on-line), and the increasing diversity of the transnational programmes offered (courses taken abroad or offered jointly via foreign institutions or e-learning).
The authors also discuss the current strategies for making higher education more international: promoting "mutual understanding" (scholarships and university exchange programmes, partnership arrangements between institutions), mobility of suitably qualified people (more active and targeted recruitment of students), more diverse sources of funding (i.e. adding commercial aims to the two previous ones), and finally bolstering what other countries are able to offer their own students through the export of higher education courses.
After a discussion of the considerable potential growth of transnational education in the next 15-20 years, the authors propose three possible scenarios: education will continue to become increasingly diverse and international, the free market model will become more and more the norm, and/or the former developing economies will become highly successful.

Revue

Éducation - Entreprises, travail - Géopolitique - Recherche, sciences, techniques

Higher Education in Europe. Recent Developments and Future Perspectives

In this article, as the French government sets out to undertake a major reform of the country's higher education system, Barbara Kehm highlights current trends in Europe in this field.
The author starts by describing the "Bologna process", which launched a new system of qualifications and a series of major reforms of higher education programmes in more than 40 European countries. She then shows how this process (started in 1999) has been combined with the Lisbon strategy (2000) with the aim of establishing by 2010 a Europe-wide system of higher education linked to plans for research and innovation.
Barbara Kehm also examines how the role of the state in the management of higher education is changing in Europe. She discusses the new forms of governance that have developed against the background of the system's problems of both funding and legitimacy, resulting in growing moves towards greater autonomy for individual institutions and more vocationally oriented courses.
Finally, Barbara Kehm looks at three key issues for European higher education: more diverse sources of funding (in order above all to cope with increased numbers of students), research and improvements in quality (via better evaluation and accreditation), and internationalization (involving both co-operation and competition). She concludes her analysis by setting out the main trends in this field for the next 10 years.

Revue

Éducation

The International League Tables of Universities

Inadequate funding, too many students, lack of career prospects for graduates...: the French universities appear to amass criticisms and blockages. Following Jean-Jacques Salomon's article last month on the "strangling of the French universities", this month Futuribles has invited Bertrand Bellon, a professor of economics in Paris, to give his views.
The principle of marking and ranking is part and parcel of the education system, he points out, and the universities themselves cannot escape it: several international league tables are now generally accepted guides to quality. In them, the French universities come in the middle of the rankings and not one figures among the top institutions, traditionally a monopoly of American universities. This suggests, Bertrand Bellon argues, that we should examine the reasons behind the mismatch between the criteria used in drawing up these rankings and those given priority by the French higher education system.
This shows, he says, that what dominates the rankings are criteria based on reputation (those of the Times, the Times Higher Education Supplement) or production and influence of academic research (those of Jiao Tong University in Shanghai and the Internet site Webometrics); these award France a ranking that is "reasonable" given its size and the level of international competition.
Nevertheless, Bertrand Bellon stresses, the present international university league tables are too selective and subjective to justify their role in selecting the best universities in the world.
Consequently he puts forward two ways of improving the league tables: offer different rankings that take account of other aspects of the universities, or give greater weight in the evaluations to how far an institution's results are consistent with its aims and means. In conclusion, he acknowledges that it is obvious that the performance of the French universities in the rankings highlights certain problems peculiar to the French system which it would not be helpful to disguise by using different rankings.

Forum

Éducation

The Strangling of the French Universities

For some years now, evaluations of universities around the world are from time to time the subject of reports, in particular by Jiao Tong University in Shangai and by the Times Higher Education Supplement (THES). The French universities do not come out well in these rankings, probably because of the peculiarities of the French system of organizing research and higher education: firstly because research institutions are separated from universities, and secondly because of the existence of the grandes écoles alongside the universities.
Nevertheless, it is undeniably true that the French universities are deteriorating, according to Jean-Jacques Salomon. This decline cannot be attributed solely to lack of funding, nor therefore can it be overcome merely by increasing the budget for research and development. As Olivier Postel-Vinay has rightly argued before, it arises from four obstacles to any possibility of reform: the universities' lack of independence, the way that funds are allocated, the fact that researchers are civil servants and the highly centralized state.
But in addition to these obstacles, which Jean-Jacques Salomon also emphasizes, there are plenty of other problems: the proliferation of universities and the huge increase in student numbers (without a corresponding increase in the number of teachers and administrators) resulting from a pseudo-democratization of higher education and the priority given in France to longer academic courses rather than to vocational and technical courses, which are held in low esteem. Consequently the aim of ensuring that 80% of every age cohort reaches the level of the baccalauréat (school-leaving examination) is demagogic and misleading, the author argues. For one thing, many young people leave school without either a qualification or any training; for another, this does not prevent the best students from aiming for the top institutions of higher education, leaving the rest to turn to the universities, which in reality lack the means to cope with them properly, much less to provide everyone with the high quality of education that only a dozen universities can claim to offer.
This assessment has been made over and over again for more than half a century, says Jean-Jacques Salomon, yet no reform has ever been undertaken that is adequate to meet the challenges. On the contrary, the Ministry of Education has constantly issued "paradoxical injunctions" that are harmful in every respect, and especially to the students.
However, the decline of the French universities is not inevitable, the author argues. He makes some propositions that are decidedly provocative to French eyes, such as the suggestion that universities should be given enough independence to be able to choose their students, their teachers, their administrators, their fees, their degree courses and syllabuses ...
The author strongly criticizes the bottlenecks and the hypocrisy inherent in the French policy on education and training, which he calls "a machine for reproducing inequalities" that leads to a poor standard of higher education in France and to a sense of bitterness and frustration on the part of many young people.

Chapitre Education

Ce chapitre est extrait du Rapport Vigie 2016 de Futuribles International, qui propose un panorama structuré des connaissances et des incertitudes des experts que l'association a mobilisés pour explorer les évolutions des 15 à 35 prochaines années sur 11 thématiques.